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Saturday, July 28, 2007

ATL Journal-Constitution: Rangers may take Teixeira trade to wire (RR)

Chipper Jones learned long ago not to get too excited about trade rumors, but he couldn’t help himself Friday as he envisioned Atlanta’s lineup should the Braves finalize a proposed trade for Texas Rangers first baseman Mark Teixeira.

“It’d be awful nice to have that big bat in the lineup,” Jones said of Teixeira…
...
The Braves and at least two other teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels, were the strongest contenders for Teixeira as of Friday afternoon. But the Angels were reported to be backing out late Friday night. The Rangers could wait this out to the 4 p.m. Tuesday non-waiver trade deadline, hoping a team will cave in to their demands and sweeten an offer.

The Braves have a three-player package featuring their top prospect, catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, plus left-handed prospect Matt Harrison and one of two infield prospects, versatile Brent Lillibridge or shortstop Elvis Andrus.

The Braves have asked for one of three Rangers relievers—closer Eric Gagne, lefty C.J. Wilson, lefty Ron Mahay—to be included with Teixeira, especially if the Braves are to include Andrus, an 18-year-old defensive whiz.

Tex talk from the Atlanta front…

NTNgod Posted: July 28, 2007 at 12:55 AM | 23 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralAtlantaLA AngelsLA DodgersTexas

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   1. AROM Posted: July 28, 2007 at 01:21 AM (#2458656)
But the Angels were reported to be backing out late Friday night.

Fine by me. Robb Quinlan started tonight vs the lefty, but Kotchman came on to pinch hit and lined a double to the wall on the first pitch he saw. I was hoping it wouldn't be the last time I see him in an Angel uniform.
   2. NTNgod Posted: July 28, 2007 at 02:05 AM (#2458667)
LA Times: Deal for Teixeira appears unlikely (RR)
The Angels essentially abandoned their pursuit of Texas slugger Mark Teixeira because of the Rangers' steep asking price Friday, leaving them very few options to bolster their offense before Tuesday's non-waiver trade deadline.

According to baseball sources, the Rangers wanted three players from the Angels for Teixeira, and the teams apparently agreed on the first two, first baseman Casey Kotchman and left-handed pitcher Joe Saunders.

Texas spent a day or two scouring the Angels' farm system this week, and the Angels were hoping the third request would be for a mid-level prospect or major league reserve such as Terry Evans and Nathan Haynes, both outfielders.

The Rangers gave the Angels a list of four names to choose from Friday. On that list were infielder Brandon Wood... double-A right-hander Nick Adenhart... starting second baseman Howie Kendrick... and recently demoted right-hander Ervin Santana.

The Angels' response: No way.
...
The Angels could turn their focus to Chicago White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye or Oakland designated hitter Mike Piazza. They are believed to have called Florida about third baseman Miguel Cabrera, but the Marlins have virtually no interest in trading the slugger.

I believe that was the family-friendly interpretation of the Angels' response.
   3. Red Juice Posted: July 28, 2007 at 03:58 AM (#2458701)
a 2008 linuep of Vlad, Tex and Arod.

Unreal!
   4. Walt Davis Posted: July 28, 2007 at 04:56 AM (#2458707)
closer Eric Gagne, lefty C.J. Wilson, lefty Ron Mahay

Y'know, I started to write something about how this wasn't exactly tough for the Rangers because Mahay is ancient (he is 36) and has never been good before. But lo and behold, he's got a career 120 ERA+. Granted, the career 1.4 WHIP is nothing to get worked up about but for a guy who's been bounced back and forth to the minors so often, he's had a nice little career and made a couple million bucks along the way.

Still, if it's the Rangers choice whether to include Gagne, Wilson (26) or Mahay, it's still not a hard choice.
   5. philly Posted: July 28, 2007 at 07:44 AM (#2458714)
Granted, the career 1.4 WHIP is nothing to get worked up about but for a guy who's been bounced back and forth to the minors so often, he's had a nice little career and made a couple million bucks along the way.


Especially considering he was a non-descript organizational filler OF in the spring of 95 when the Red Sox pressured him to be a replacement player. I guess he's missed out on 10 years of union licensing money, but all and all I'd say things worked out pretty well.
   6. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: July 28, 2007 at 08:08 AM (#2458717)
I believe that was the family-friendly interpretation of the Angels' response.


Probably, but the bluster obviously masks LA's fear that they are trading someone who's going to turn into a good or even great major leaguer. If LA really thinks it can't part with Wood OR Adenhart OR Kendrick OR Santana, then Stoneman is living in some West Coast version of Lake Wobegon, where all of his prospects are above average.

It's up to Stoneman to separate the bona fide prospects from the Kendry Moraleses and Dallas McPhersons of the world, and to try and get some value for the latter. That's his job, and the Angels would be a lot better off if he'd start doing it.
   7. John DiFool2 Posted: July 28, 2007 at 09:30 AM (#2458746)
I had to chuckle a few years ago when Clay Davenport put in the name "Elvis" when generating the names of new (fictional) minor leaguers. Now the game is literally swimming in Elvii...
   8. AROM Posted: July 28, 2007 at 10:06 AM (#2458755)
If LA really thinks it can't part with Wood OR Adenhart OR Kendrick OR Santana, then Stoneman is living in some West Coast version of Lake Wobegon, where all of his prospects are above average.

That's not it at all. Kendrick isn't even a prospect anymore, he's an above average MLB regular when healthy. But one of that list was going to be the 3rd player in the deal, after Kotchman and Saunders, and the with the first 2 it was already a bad deal.

The difference between Kotchman and Teixiera to the end of this year, is only 5 runs according to these numbers. Then you consider contract status and how long we can keep Teixiera vs Kotchman. Then there's Joe Saunders, the current #4 starter on a team that has only 4 capable major league starters at this moment. I'm pretty sure at this point we are already hurting the team just to get a big name. Then on top of it all they want a grade A prospect(Wood/Adenhart), enigma with a great arm and 2006 success (Santana) or quality major leaguer (Kendrick)? No thanks. If you want the Angels to make that deal then you are an A's fan.
   9. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 28, 2007 at 10:33 AM (#2458767)
a 2008 linuep of Vlad, Tex and Arod.

How are the Yanks going to get Vlad?
   10. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: July 28, 2007 at 10:58 AM (#2458782)
AROM-

If you believe published reports, Stoneman was already willing to trade Kotchman. If you think Kotchman is potentially almost as good as Teixeira, I might agree with you. But Stoneman obviously doesn't think so. And if he doesn't think so, and if he recognizes, as I do, that Joe Saunders is nothing special, then the only sticking point is the third player.

So you've got...

Wood: "grade A prospect" who struck out 149 times in 118 games at AA last year
Adenhart: "grade A prospect" with not-real-impressive K rates
Santana: "enigma with a great arm and 2006 success" but an ERA close to 5.00 in almost 500 major league innings
Kendrick: "quality major leaguer" who can't stay healthy

Do you really think all four of these guys are going to be superstars? Or even just very good? Or even average? That strikes me as pretty doubtful. But, of course, Stoneman has a lot better information than me about the Angels and their farm system. And if he truly believes he has a future All-Star at every position (it's like the Diamondbacks 2.0!), then why in the world would he even look into acquiring Teixeira in the first place?

I'm NOT saying Stoneman should make the trade. I AM saying that, if he's already agreed to trade Kotchman and Saunders, is it really that much of an exercise to figure out the worst prospect of these four players (I'd say Santana, but YMMV), and include him?
   11. Elvis Posted: July 28, 2007 at 11:45 AM (#2458811)
I had to chuckle a few years ago when Clay Davenport put in the name "Elvis" when generating the names of new (fictional) minor leaguers. Now the game is literally swimming in Elvii...

This makes me happy. If only Kirk Presley would've panned out...

I think if someone made a Kotchman, Saunders, Kendrick (or any of the other three names) trade in fantasy, it would be rejected by the commissioner.
   12. neknhaM yrraL Posted: July 28, 2007 at 11:49 AM (#2458814)
It is starting to seem likely that A-Rod will sign an extension with the Yankees, especially considering that he's looking at buying a multi-million dollar estate in Connecticut.
   13. robinred Posted: July 28, 2007 at 11:57 AM (#2458823)
The difference between Kotchman and Teixiera to the end of this year, is only 5 runs according to these numbers. Then you consider contract status and how long we can keep Teixiera vs Kotchman.


Wood: "grade A prospect" who struck out 149 times in 118 games at AA last year
Adenhart: "grade A prospect" with not-real-impressive K rates
Santana: "enigma with a great arm and 2006 success" but an ERA close to 5.00 in almost 500 major league innings
Kendrick: "quality major leaguer" who can't stay healthy


I actually kind of agree with both of these posts. I don't think the Angel prospects are all that hot, and I am not really sure why people would want Ervin Santana, although given Texas' constant need for pitching you can kind of see it.

But Teixeira's rep exceeds what he actually does. VORP, a stat I am not huge on but which is a way to get a quick thumbnail indicator of offensive value, has Teixeira and Kotchman at 27.8 and 19.9, respectively. Since Teixeira has complained publicly about the state of the Rangers and has free agency coming up after 2008 while he will still be in his prime, there seems to be a subtext here that he will bust out if they move him to a contender. But it seems to me he would be really kicking ass anyway right now, at age 27, if he were going to. He is a very good player as is, but it seems like he should be doing a little more than he does.

People have also brought up his home/road splits, but after the Soriano/Wlikerson thing, I am going to wait and see on that, particularly if Teixeira goes to the NL (conceding Soriano and Teixeira are different types of players.) I think there may be other factors in play WRT Texas splits, like the other parks in the division.
   14. robinred Posted: July 28, 2007 at 12:21 PM (#2458838)
It is starting to seem likely that A-Rod will sign an extension with the Yankees, especially considering that he's looking at buying a multi-million dollar estate in Connecticut

A Connecticut Yankee in King George's Court.
   15. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: July 28, 2007 at 03:08 PM (#2458994)
I AM saying that, if he's already agreed to trade Kotchman and Saunders, is it really that much of an exercise to figure out the worst prospect of these four players (I'd say Santana, but YMMV), and include him?

But the problem is that trading Kotchman and Saunders is already stupid.

The Angels only have four starters right now. Now, if Ervin turns it around quickly, and reverts to his pre-2007 form (which I believe is possible, though certainly not a given), they have five. But if they trade Saunders, you're back down to four -- and I would guess that the difference between Saunders and Dustin Moseley over the balance of the season is certainly more (in the wrong direction) than the difference between Teixeira and Kotchman/Quinlan. Then, if you talk about adding Santana, the potential fifth starter, to the mix ... well, then you're asking Dusin Moseley, Chris Bootcheck, and/or Darren Oliver with the last two spots in the rotation, something like 22-24 starts over the rest of the year.

How is that even a remotely good idea?
   16. TVerik Posted: July 28, 2007 at 03:15 PM (#2458998)
It is starting to seem likely that A-Rod will sign an extension with the Yankees, especially considering that he's looking at buying a multi-million dollar estate in Connecticut.

Living in that state, and having just house-hunted, I can tell you that you pretty much can't buy property where Rod is going for under a mill.
   17. Cowboy Popup Posted: July 28, 2007 at 03:27 PM (#2459014)
Living in that state, and having just house-hunted, I can tell you that you pretty much can't buy property where Rod is going for under a mill.

Where's the Rod looking?
   18. TVerik Posted: July 28, 2007 at 03:30 PM (#2459019)
I take that back; Google says:
Alex Rodriguez (203) 597-1691 396 Waterville St, Waterbury, CT 06710 (which Google Maps says is by the train tracks).
   19. TVerik Posted: July 28, 2007 at 03:32 PM (#2459025)
Less snark, more content.

The Post (a deplorable publication if there ever was one), talks about his mansion in Greenwich.
   20. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: July 28, 2007 at 03:51 PM (#2459047)
How is that even a remotely good idea?


The real question is, how could LA's #4 and #5 starters be remotely worse than they've already been? (And remember, the team is in first by four games.) LA starters not named Escobar, Lackey, or Weaver have a 5.62 ERA this season. You could essentially pick AAA starters at random (Olenberger? Shell?) and they'd probably do better than that, or just as well. But the Angels just HAVE to keep Saunders (who has a AAA over 5.00 this year) and Santana?
   21. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: July 28, 2007 at 04:07 PM (#2459058)
I don't see Olenberger and Shell as being good bets to beat or even match a 5.62 in the majors.

Saunders' ERA was a bit high in AAA this year, but he pitches in a hitters' park and his peripherals were good for the league. He's not the second coming of Warren Spahn or anything, but he should be adequate.
   22. AROM Posted: July 28, 2007 at 04:44 PM (#2459080)
I see Saunders as the second coming of Jarrod Washburn. He's got value, and if they trade him before Santana can be fixed, assuming Santana can be fixed, we have 3 starters. We have no AAA filler who can be expected to step in and contribute anything.

Because of this, I don't believe the reports Stoneman was willing to offer Saunders/Kotchman.

I AM saying that, if he's already agreed to trade Kotchman and Saunders, is it really that much of an exercise to figure out the worst prospect of these four players (I'd say Santana, but YMMV), and include him?

If he reluctantly offered that much because he really wanted Tex and felt that was as high as he could go, then one of the other 4 should be the tipping point where he says no. If he had made an first offer that he was very comfortable with, and thought he was getting Tex for a bargain, yeah, then pick the worst of those 4 and include him.

Are all 4 of those players going to be above average major leaguers? Probably not, but they all have value. I'd rather have a GM overvalue them and not make deals than to waste them on short term rentals. Sometimes it gets to me when people knock the Angels farm system. Without Napoli, Kotchman, Kendrick, and Willits, the 2007 team would be looking up at the Mariners. We might even suck as bad as Oakland. I want nothing more than to be able to repeat that fact next year and include the name of Brandon Wood.
   23. A Surfeit of Peaches Graham (SdeB) Posted: July 28, 2007 at 04:48 PM (#2459083)
It is starting to seem likely that A-Rod will sign an extension with the Yankees, especially considering that he's looking at buying a multi-million dollar estate in Connecticut.


Hartford Devil Rays, baby!
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