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Wednesday, August 27, 2008

B-ref Blog: Baseball’s 250,000th Homer

Any dibs on who will hit and when?

Dag Nabbit Posted: August 27, 2008 at 05:29 AM | 53 comment(s)
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1. villageidiom Posted: August 27, 2008 at 07:35 AM (#2918314)

Pedroia, 9/14.

2. Lassus Posted: August 27, 2008 at 07:44 AM (#2918316)

I hope it's a pitcher.

Tim Lincecum, maybe.

3. Dolf Lucky Posted: August 27, 2008 at 07:45 AM (#2918318)

Adam Dunn, against the Reds.

4. Swoboda is freedom Posted: August 27, 2008 at 07:56 AM (#2918323)

I think Kevin has the have the title of homer wrapped up.

5. McCoy Posted: August 27, 2008 at 08:00 AM (#2918326)

9/16-Alfonso Soriano

6. Rafael Bellylard is in the worst shape of his life Posted: August 27, 2008 at 08:14 AM (#2918333)

9/15 Evan Longoria

7. Le Comble du Bob Dernier Cri Posted: August 27, 2008 at 08:21 AM (#2918337)

9/13 Milton Bradley.

Hey, can't win if I don't play.

8. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: August 27, 2008 at 08:24 AM (#2918338)

9/20 - Micah Hoffpauir

9. Edmundo, more Jules than Jim Posted: August 27, 2008 at 08:32 AM (#2918343)

9/16 Marlon Anderson

Might as well reach. It may end up being the Mets highlight of the year. <ducking>

10. Fancy Pants Handle Posted: August 27, 2008 at 08:48 AM (#2918353)

9/14 Juan Pierre at Coors

11. plim Posted: August 27, 2008 at 08:53 AM (#2918354)

9/11 Kevin Youkilis

12. Ball Point Pen Guy (Will Young) Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:08 AM (#2918366)

I hope somebody hits if off Livan Hernandez so he can be the pitcher who served up both HR 200,000 and 250,000. Thus, I'll take 9/9 with Jeff Francouer.

13. Lassus Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:08 AM (#2918367)

12 wins. That would be beyond awesome.

14. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:10 AM (#2918370)

A lot of those milestone giver-uppers were pretty good pitchers.

15. RMc is the President of the United States Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:11 AM (#2918371)

Home runs are just a conspiracy to rule us through fear.

16. Mike in MI Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:33 AM (#2918394)

That's pretty cool. 1/2 of all the MLB HR's have been in the last 30 years.

I say 9/10 by Ryan Braun vs the Reds.

17. Crispix Attacks Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:39 AM (#2918402)

September 11, Yuniesky Betancourt against Francisco Rodriguez.

18. Does Aaron Hill Have To Smack A Pitch? Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:43 AM (#2918404)

9/11 Vernon Wells

19. Tim Lincecum doesn't Wang Chung tonite (GGC) Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:44 AM (#2918405)

That's pretty cool. 1/2 of all the MLB HR's have been in the last 30 years.

How far is MLB to 2,000,000 runs?

20. flournoy Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:47 AM (#2918409)

Ryan Langerhans, September 9th, off Luis Ayala.

21. Sean Forman Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:50 AM (#2918411)

How far is MLB to 2,000,000 runs?

We started the year at 1,726,726. MLB is scoring 20-25,000/year, so probably 10-12 years to go.

22. Tim Lincecum doesn't Wang Chung tonite (GGC) Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:52 AM (#2918413)

OK, Sean. I was curious, seeing how the 1,000,000 mark was broken only a little over 30 years ago.

23. billyjack Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:54 AM (#2918415)

Chris Coletta, Sept 24, off Jim Perry.

24. McCoy Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:57 AM (#2918418)

If you want to be technical the majors have blown past 250,000 homers, if you count playoffs. There have been 1997 playoff homers.

If you count the NA you get 249,892, though BRef states that there have been 249,903 homers hit since 1871. If you count the playoffs you got 251,889 or 251,900.

25. Crispix Attacks Posted: August 27, 2008 at 09:57 AM (#2918421)

Bugs Bunny, August 27th, vs. Tee Totallers
This is also my answer for the 260,000th homer.

EDIT: I was assuming this counted playoffs. Sean Forman how could you?

26. McCoy Posted: August 27, 2008 at 10:11 AM (#2918426)

The Lahman Database has the total at 251,885.

So who are the guys who hit 2,090th through 2,105th homers of this season?

27. Edmundo, more Jules than Jim Posted: August 27, 2008 at 10:17 AM (#2918438)

Bugs Bunny, August 27th, vs. Tee Totallers
I didn't know that he was a free agent and signed with the Gashouse Gorillas. Back in my day we had loyalty... well and we were held in check by the reserve clause

28. McCoy Posted: August 27, 2008 at 10:23 AM (#2918443)

It looks like homers 2,090 through 2,105 were hit on June 18th of this year. Going into that day 2,082 homers had been hit this season, so one of the players who hit the 8th through the 23rd homer is your 250,000 homer of the majors.

29. McCoy Posted: August 27, 2008 at 10:53 AM (#2918479)

8th through 23rd
Toby Hall
Brian Anderson
Carlos Quentin
Jose Bautista
Lance Berkman
Luke Scott
Adrian Gonzalez
Brian Giles
Chase Headley
Chris Young
Felipe Lopez
Geo Soto
Jeff Baker
Mike Cameron
David DeJesus
Alex Gordon

30. Weeks T. Olive Posted: August 27, 2008 at 10:59 AM (#2918487)

Big Z, 9/12

31. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: August 27, 2008 at 11:08 AM (#2918494)

Griffey Jr, 9/14

32. Dag Nabbit Posted: August 27, 2008 at 11:21 AM (#2918508)

We're 325 homers shy.

Baseball has seen 3990 homers hit in 1999 games. That's 1.9959979 per game (or, just barely under 1 per decision).

That puts us at 163 games from it. That's 326 decisions. On 9/7, we'll have had 161 more games, and 171 through 9/8. Figure the temperature curve kicks in, I reckon #250,000 goes up on September 9.

I'll say Nate McLouth against the Astros on September 9.

33. Roadblock Jones Posted: August 27, 2008 at 11:37 AM (#2918524)

Sept. 12, off whoever is closing for the Mets that day.

34. Brandon in MO (Fire Trey Hillman) Posted: August 27, 2008 at 12:03 PM (#2918566)

Tony Pena Jr, September 6th, 2008, on Tony Pena Jr Bobblehead night.. off of Fernando Rodney

35. Vida Blew Over the Legal Limit Posted: August 27, 2008 at 12:10 PM (#2918575)

Sept. 11, by George W. Bush. It'll be against the Reds in the name of freedom and democracy. Later, it will be criticized because the Reds have no weapons at all.

36. Dag Nabbit Posted: August 27, 2008 at 12:12 PM (#2918579)

Colonel Mustard in the conservatory with a lead pipe.

37. Pujols Shot Ya Posted: August 27, 2008 at 12:20 PM (#2918590)

September 10th, Edwin Encarnacion.

38. Chase Utley, America's Favorite Robot (Joey Belle) Posted: August 27, 2008 at 12:26 PM (#2918596)

Rafael Belliard, September 9th.

39. Craig K Posted: August 27, 2008 at 12:27 PM (#2918598)

Pujols, 9/17

40. Hack Wilson Posted: August 27, 2008 at 12:31 PM (#2918602)

Angel Guzman 9/14.

41. Cooperstown Schtick Posted: August 27, 2008 at 12:34 PM (#2918605)

Bonds, 9/16

When somebody gives you 10,000-1 odds on anything, you take it. If John Cougar Mellencamp ever wins a Best Actor Oscar, I will be one rich dude.

42. Gamingboy Posted: August 27, 2008 at 12:43 PM (#2918622)

Given the relative obscurity of most of the people who hit these home runs, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say..................

(checks who's hot)

Hmm..

Mike Cameron.

43. Outman, fighter of the Hitman (jonathan) Posted: August 27, 2008 at 04:13 PM (#2918970)

Might as well go with someone on your favorite team. 9/12, Jack Cust off of, I dunno, let's go with Joaquin Benoit.

44. Justin T Posted: August 27, 2008 at 04:27 PM (#2918990)

In that vein, Carlos Gonzalez on 9/16 off F-Raud, who finishes the season with 57 saves.

45. Still Waiting on Pork Chops (John R.) Posted: August 27, 2008 at 06:33 PM (#2919145)

Not someone off my favorite team:
9/9 - Jhonny Peralta off Jeremy Guthrie

46. vortex of dissipation Posted: August 27, 2008 at 06:44 PM (#2919154)

9/13. CC Sabathia, pinch-hit grand slam off Brad Lidge.

47. tyler Posted: August 27, 2008 at 07:29 PM (#2919222)

9/10 - Berkman off Tyler Yates

48. McCoy Posted: August 31, 2008 at 08:56 AM (#2923406)

According to BRef league report baseball has hit 250,009 homers as of yesterday with quite possibly Chipper Jones hitting the 250,000th homer.

49. Jittery McFrog Posted: August 31, 2008 at 09:58 AM (#2923426)

9/10 - Carlos Pena off Javier Lopez

50. McCoy Posted: September 01, 2008 at 11:20 AM (#2924414)

Going into the August 27th game they were 325 shy. 5 days of games later they are 190 shy. So around Sept 8th or 9th. I still say Soriano.

51. McCoy Posted: September 07, 2008 at 10:28 AM (#2931710)

31 homers away. It will probably happen today.

52. RB in NYC (Now with a Training Schedule!) Posted: September 07, 2008 at 11:04 AM (#2931717)

I called as Jason Kubel off Chris Lambert, over the baggie today. So I'm sticking with that.

53. McCoy Posted: September 07, 2008 at 11:21 AM (#2931720)

I'll go with Lance Berkman in Colorado

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