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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Wednesday, November 07, 2007Baltimore Sun: Yankees reportedly interested in Tejada
Baltimore Sun: Mora could waive no-trade clause NTNgod
Posted: November 07, 2007 at 11:41 PM | 80 comment(s)
Related News: General, Baltimore, NY Yankees, Rumors |
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Several years ago.
Okay, so I haven't been paying that much attention. Get off my back!
Often it's the latter, but this time it's the former.
So sick of Mora's ######## and whining. Please go somewhere else already.
"I don't want to play those games," he said. "I'm one of the best third basemen in the American League and in baseball. If you are going to move me, you have to make the team more competitive."
This reminds of the early rounds of American Idol when somebody sings their ass off but is AWFUL. Simon then asks, "Do you think you're any good," and the singer responds, "I know I'm good." Melvin is the Sanjaya of baseball.
Offensively, some power, lots of strikeouts, not a lot of walks...the anti-'classic Torre-Cashman Yankee.' His runs created have decreased three seasons in a row, but he's still a good player.
But a world class preening sulker! He'd play well in NY until some of the media guys decided he was full of ####. They still haven't figured it out in Baltimore, or if they have, they aren't writing it. No such holdbacks in the Apple, though. Could be bad news there.
It'd be interesting to see. Most Baltimore fans would, I imagine, be happy with a deal that landed two of the Yankee kids just outside their so-called 'untouchable three' and another one a little lower on the board...though most of us wopuld prefer to see a couple of position players, cause the O's have none of those coming up anytime soon.
“ Of course… we make Farnsworth the closer, Gardner could be lighting a spark for us by 2009, at the latest, and this Horne kid is ready to slot into the rotation today! Plus, we can deal Farnsworth at the deadline for even more prospects if [wink, wink] we’ve somehow fallen out of contention! Call that prick Angelos, we have a deal to sell!”
All the while, are they receiving max value in such a deal? Eh… what do you guys think? Tejada is still a very technically sound hitter, hand/eye, approach, all that jazz. He could really be rejuvenated by New York. I could actually see this happening, though interdivision trades of such magnitude rarely occur… unless you count the epic Chris Britton for Jaret Wright midnight massacre of ’06.
Seriously, neither Larry Bowa nor tony La Russa like Scott Rolen. I'm going to conclude that Scott Rolen is a woman.
Nice try.
What would one project for Tejada in 2008? About a 115 OPS+? How about Lowell? A 118 OPS+? I don't see why Lowell gets a big lead in defense (or even any lead, but I'll assume he gets a small lead).
I don't know enough about either the PED concerns or clubhouse issues (I read what is in the papers, but presumably there is a lot more info available for people in the game), so I don't know how much to value that. But, Tejada at 2/26 vs. Lowell at 4/52 seems an easy answer, and if Lowell is 3/40 (or there abouts) I'm not sure why Lowell is the obviously better deal when you consider the draft picks (though, again, ignoring the clubhouse).
A couple Yankee fans predicted they could get him for Farnsworth, but that's of course stupid, and was offered as a joke. It'll cost significant talent. No A prospects, but a package headlined by a B+/A- prospect at least. Kennedy would be perfect, all else being equal, but as was point out in one of the many, many ARod/Cabrera threads, the Yankees are kind of stuck because they're counting on 150 IP from Kennedy next year, and they'd have to replace that, making Kennedy much more valuable to the Yankees than to other clubs who might trade for him. The Orioles might take a Tabata+ package, so I guess that would be the most likely place to start.
EDIT: had more to say, it seems
Much than that changes the calculation, of course.
I don't know what the Orioles are asking for - I assume they aren't giving him away, but I also assume they aren't looking to get Kemp for him, either. With Rodriguez, Lowell, and Cabrerra all out there, I get the feeling that Tejada is the best value of the 4, though admittedly there are no published reports to prove that for me.
(Edit - to be clear, the question is if the cost in prospects is < the potential value in draft picks - the risk in long term Lowell investment.)
(Edit2 - note that for the Red Sox, b/c of the supp pick the potential value in draft picks is > than for other teams, who only will lose one pick.)
And six hours later, the Tejada for Farnsworth rumor is sweeping the intra-webs!
If anything, adding a salary dump to the deal means you need to add more talent.
Is (Presumably) 1st round pick (#15-30) + supp pick > prospects for Tejada - risk for Lowell's last (two?) season(s?)?I was thinking closer to Bowden than Lowrie (the former being a 3* in Goldstein's rankings, the latter being 4*s). Though, again, I don't know what the "prospects for Tejada" side of the equation equals, so if you (which you seem to clearly do) think that equals a lot, then you've already solved the equation. But, I'm more interested in setting up the equation than solving it.
The reference to the Red Sox valuation differing is meant to capture the relevant calculus for a hypothetical other team in weighing a Lowell or Tejada acquisition:
is Lowell - first round pick > Tejada - prospects?For other teams, the answer is very different. The prospects are likely worth more than the first round pick, though not necessary enough to cover the risk in the extra year or two of Lowell under contract. The Red Sox have the additional supp pick to consider, which, while not worth a ton (as you rightly point out), is worth a good deal nonetheless.
(Philly's studies are great for looking to future ML value, but (e.g.) Bowden has trade value now though not being very likely to have a career that differs in ML value from those in Philly's study. Thus, Supp picks have more value than simply their expected WARP.)
(I'm using Goldstein's *s not b/c they are right, but b/c I don't want to get into a debate over what prospect is worth what. Substitute your own ranking for those *s.)
My point here is a variation on a point that I have already made a couple thousand times this offseason: Tejada for nothing is a pony plan. Tejada is worth something - quite a lot, as you have pointed out several times. As such, suggesting that a trade for him in which the acquiring team gives up nothing they particularly value is like wishing for a pony - no harm in it, but not exactly worthy of discussion.
If there are actual published reports of possible pony trades, then I'm interested. As of now, what appears to have happened is that people read Tyler Kepner's vague, muddled speculation, and took it as an actual rumor:Kepner cites no sources, appears to be making stuff up (with Cabrera), and isn't even clear as to whether Farnsworth would be the centerpiece of or a salary dump in the trade that he made up in his head.
Normally there would be a joke about "one of these is not like the others", but there is no "unlike the others" among the three.
Well, Dany Baez is Hispanic, and that's probably it.
LaRussa and Bowa don't like women?
(Wait for it . . . .)
Anybody have LaRussa's phone number?
Too funny. My take on tejada: He's a better SS than most think. He isn't great, but probably average. I also think he could be a great pickup for some team. NOt that he'll be cheap, but he'd certainly cost a lot less in talent than Cabrera, he's signed to a very reasonable deal, and I think he could really bounce back with a contending team. He seemed pretty bored out there at times, and would probably thrive on a contender.
I don't care about the division thing. Trade him to whoever offers the best package in return. Laroche and Hu? Pie, Cedeno, and Marshall? That said, I don't know if a trade with the yankees would work since they obviously aren't trading Hughes or Joba for Tejada...I assume the same is true re Melky. Maybe Jackson, Kennedy, and a B prospect?
edit: Sure, and Farnsworth as a salary dump. Why not?
I think the writer forgot a comma between "Ray" and "and."
Set up the equation and it should solve for itself.
Equation: is Lowell - first round pick > Tejada - prospects?
For all values of "prospects" where the above is untrue, the trade in question is a pony plan.
BBTF doens't worship at the altar of snark. We run the motherF!@#ing joint.
Now there is an understatement.
If you have wine with dinner, I suggest you drive.
ZR the last three years:
Tejada: .819, .824, .843
Jeter: .830, .810, .765
So Tejada and Jeter were comparable until this year, both are excellent pop up catchers and Tejada has the stronger arm. Tejada is the better fielder right now, I think even if Jeter comes back completely healthy. Tejada would also make a better third baseman though, given his arm and it probably benefits the Yankees as a team more to have Tejada at third and Jeter at short, much like it did with A-rod.
Also, this would be an awesome move by the Yanks if it doesn't cost too much.
What's a reasonable price in your opinion?
To be honest, I have no idea. Everytime a prospect trade proposal is thrown out around here, I almost always have a bad idea of who's getting what in terms of value. Personally, I don't want to see any of the guys who are already up go, not because they're too good or anything, but because they're part of the plan. Normally, I would be all for trading a guy like Kennedy, but he seems like the best bet IMO, for being the most reliable young guy next year, which makes him more valuable to the Yanks then in the abstract. I wouldn't mind parting with a top lower level prospect though, I think the Yanks still have a few. I really don't know how a guy like Alan Horne or Sanchez is perceived. I would probably consider giving up one of Tabata or Jackson, and I think one of those would get the job done. But to be honest, I have no scale, I'm just guessing. I usually wait for Fabian or IE to weigh in on Yankee prospects before I make my decisions. I also don't really know what the O's would be looking for other then what it says in the blurb.
Betemit is probably 4-5 wins worse than Tejada.
But what difference can 4-5 wins make?
Tejada hit .296/.357/.442 (OPS+ 109) last year .287/.344/.477 (114) for his career (125-130 OPS+ level at his peak)
Betemit hit .229/.333/.454 (OPS+ 101) last year, .260/.332/.439
that's not a 4-5 win advantage for Tejada, unless you assume that Tejada is not declining and is going back up to 130 next year.
Of course the Yankees had scads of cash and Tejada is much more likely than Betemit to throw up a 130
The Yanks should be able to either get a star 3B who actually is a 3B and actually is a star, or to spend the same amount of money and get a larger improvement than Betemit → Tejada. I don't see the point of acquiring a guy who is expensive, who isn't a 3B yet, and who, once you make him one, won't be a particularly good hitter for that position.
That's a big exaggeration. Tejada's WSAB over the last two years were 10 and 5. And, Betemit, while he may be pessimistically projected as below average, is certainly better than bench.
I think the writer forgot a comma between "Ray" and "and."
I laughed at this for about five minutes.
If Tejada gets dealt for Farnsworth and a non-top Yankee prospect while Jim Hendry carves Ryan Theriot's name into the 2 spot, I'm probably going to lose it.
Yes, 4-5 wins was overstating it, it's probably 2-3 (and closer to 2) with the bat, plus/minus whatever defense difference there is. Tejada is much more valuable to a team where he can play SS, which he still plays passably well.
I do think that expecting Betemit to put up even a 100 OPS+ in the American League is wishcasting.
Mora is over 35, been under 100 OPS+ 2 years running and is not a good 3B
If I were the Yankees I'd much rather take my chances with Betemit who has out hit Mora on a per at basis (even accounting for league difficulty) the last 2 years.
Here's how it would read:
The Orioles also need a closer because of injuries to Chris Ray, and Danys Báez.
If you look at that, it says that the O's need a closer because Chris Ray is injured, and Danys Baez is Danys Baez, implying that he sucks too much to be a closer no matter what.
Mike Lamb. Maybe Morgan Ensberg.
Heh.
Wow.
I've watched Betemit since he was in the minors...he's like that candy corn you've still got at the bottom of the Haloween giveaway bowl - a piece or two isn't bad, but if you finish off the bowl, you'll probably be sick to your stomach. The more you see if him, the less you'll like.
If Miggy knew he's being compared with Betemit, he'd pout for a week.
This is exactly why I think Tejada could be a great pickup for some team. THere seems to be this attitude out there that Tejada is completely washed up, and basically a slightly better version of Mora. But Tejada can still play a passable SS, is only 32, and could easily bounce back and put up a 125 OPS+. Considering how much less talent he'd cost compared to Cabrera and how much less money he'd cost compared to ARod, he's a good option for a team like the Yankees or the Cubs.
the yanks tried to acquire him for two years (first from the braves, then last year with the dodgers), but soured on him during his half season there. Specifically, over his dedication to conditioning. Cashman gave an interview just after a-rod opted out where he related that he had told Robinson Cano that (paraphrasing here) "if he wanted to make sure he (cano) didn't have to be the Yankees third baseman next year, he should make sure that his countryman (betemit) got his ass in shape")
not a good sign after 3 months with a new organization, especially with a shot at a starting job on the line, even before a-rod opted out, it was clear the yankees were looking at betemit for the starting job at 1st in 2008
Do you have a link for that? I'd be interested in seeing the statement and anything else Cashman might have had to say. Thanks.
I like that Robinson is put in charge of Betemit. His attitude has improved a million times over since he was a rookie and I think he's going to be a natural leader of that team for years to come.
And he's the best player on the team now.
as to the seriousness of it all, i think he was joking about moving cano if betemit showed up out of shape, but i don't think he was joking at all about not being happy with betemit's conditioning habits ...
That's my feeling on Tejada as well. If he's traded, it'll be Robbie Alomar all over again, his bat will be great and people will talk about how "rejuvenated" Tejada looks. For what it's worth, his bat was quite good after he got off the DL.
Mora is over 35, been under 100 OPS+ 2 years running and is not a good 3B
If I were the Yankees I'd much rather take my chances with Betemit who has out hit Mora on a per at basis (even accounting for league difficulty) the last 2 years.
Mora is toast. I wouldn't be surprised if Scott Moore could keep up with him at the plate. And I certainly wouldn't mind Betemit over Mora once controlling for salary.
Cripes... I am going to so pissed if Scott Moore turns into a moderately useful player - not so much because I think Scott Moore has reignited his prospect status, but because I can't he was basically given away for the worthlessness that is Steve F'ing Trachsel.
Actually, overall it wasn't any different...when he went on the DL, he was creating 5.38 Runs Per Game...when the season was over, it was 5.30 per game. He did have two hot weeks in mid-September that got him up to 5.72, but then he didn't hit a lick over the last 12 days and ended up right back at 5.30.
http://www.birdsinthebelfry.com/runs_created_2007.htm
Well, he hit 10 runs in August after hitting 7 HRs the previous 3 months. His OPS was .983 in Aug, far better than his previous three months. But his Sept sucked. I pretty much stopped watching the O's at that point so it was easy for me to overlook his weak month.
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