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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, November 24, 2008
As we know, a pitcher’s ERA can be influenced by the defense behind him. This posts explores which pitchers were helped or hurt by their defenses based on how well fielders turned balls in play into outs based on how difficult they were off the bat.
This is interesting information. I’d like to see how well this tracks over several years - I think this might help point to a reason why Wang, for example, has been successful despite low K rates.
Mike Emeigh
Posted: November 24, 2008 at 11:14 AM | 9 comment(s)
Related News: General, Sabermetrics
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PMR builds in a difficulty factor based on ball location and velocity. The predicted DER is an indicator of how (relatively) easy the balls behind the pitcher are to field. Wang's predicted DER is .657 - which means that he is actually giving up balls that are relatively difficult to field, normally. Part of the reason for that is that Wang had (in 2008, anyway) a high rate of line drives in play (21.2%). Contrast that to groundballer Carmona, who had only 12.7% LDIP - and a predicted DER of .711.
-- MWE
SLIP doesn't really tell you anything that in-play BA doesn't. Most in-play EBH are doubles, and doubles as a percentage of hits allowed doesn't have a lot of variance between pitchers.
-- MWE
OK, but what about the flip side of SLIP? Wouldn't that indicate which teams had bad outfield defense?
Again, not to any great degree; the variance in doubles allowed as a function of hits in play is too small.
-- MWE
Carmona had one of the highest percentage of "easy" balls in play, in part because he allowed only 12.7% LDIP. It is extremely unusual for a GB pitcher to have an expected DER which is that high - Webb's never been over .700, for example - and it sounds as though Carmona might have made some changes last year that caused balls to be hit in different locations than his fielders expected.
I'd love to see Pinto do some breakdowns by in-play ball type, like he did for Wang a year ago.
-- MWE
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