Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, November 24, 2008

Baseball Musings/Pinto: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Defense Behind Pitchers

As we know, a pitcher’s ERA can be influenced by the defense behind him. This posts explores which pitchers were helped or hurt by their defenses based on how well fielders turned balls in play into outs based on how difficult they were off the bat.

This is interesting information. I’d like to see how well this tracks over several years - I think this might help point to a reason why Wang, for example, has been successful despite low K rates.

Mike Emeigh Posted: November 24, 2008 at 03:14 PM | 9 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralSabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. RJ not in TO Posted: November 24, 2008 at 03:37 PM (#3014804)
So, does this list differentiate between types of BIP beyond flyball/groundball? I thought there was evidence that some pitchers (read sinkerballers) generate easier to field BIP than other pitchers? If that is the case, wouldn't this list be an indication of that skill rather than a rating of the defense behind the pitchers(hence Wang being at the top of the list while the other Yankee pitchers are near the bottom)?
   2. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 24, 2008 at 04:12 PM (#3014834)
So, does this list differentiate between types of BIP beyond flyball/groundball?


PMR builds in a difficulty factor based on ball location and velocity. The predicted DER is an indicator of how (relatively) easy the balls behind the pitcher are to field. Wang's predicted DER is .657 - which means that he is actually giving up balls that are relatively difficult to field, normally. Part of the reason for that is that Wang had (in 2008, anyway) a high rate of line drives in play (21.2%). Contrast that to groundballer Carmona, who had only 12.7% LDIP - and a predicted DER of .711.

-- MWE
   3. Mike Webber Posted: November 24, 2008 at 04:27 PM (#3014850)
So are Carmona and Sanchez guys likely to improve, because things may even out? Or is it a thing that says "These pitchers are similar to knuckleballers in that normal DIPS doesn't work right for them."
   4. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: November 24, 2008 at 04:40 PM (#3014858)
DER is essentially the inverse of BABIP, right? Why doen't anyone us SLIP (Slugging in play) instead?
   5. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 24, 2008 at 06:45 PM (#3014945)
Why doesn't anyone use SLIP (Slugging in play) instead?


SLIP doesn't really tell you anything that in-play BA doesn't. Most in-play EBH are doubles, and doubles as a percentage of hits allowed doesn't have a lot of variance between pitchers.

-- MWE
   6. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: November 24, 2008 at 07:05 PM (#3014961)
SLIP doesn't really tell you anything that in-play BA doesn't. Most in-play EBH are doubles, and doubles as a percentage of hits allowed doesn't have a lot of variance between pitchers.


OK, but what about the flip side of SLIP? Wouldn't that indicate which teams had bad outfield defense?
   7. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 24, 2008 at 07:15 PM (#3014970)
OK, but what about the flip side of SLIP? Wouldn't that indicate which teams had bad outfield defense?


Again, not to any great degree; the variance in doubles allowed as a function of hits in play is too small.

-- MWE
   8. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 24, 2008 at 07:31 PM (#3014988)
So are Carmona and Sanchez guys likely to improve, because things may even out?


Carmona had one of the highest percentage of "easy" balls in play, in part because he allowed only 12.7% LDIP. It is extremely unusual for a GB pitcher to have an expected DER which is that high - Webb's never been over .700, for example - and it sounds as though Carmona might have made some changes last year that caused balls to be hit in different locations than his fielders expected.

I'd love to see Pinto do some breakdowns by in-play ball type, like he did for Wang a year ago.

-- MWE
   9. Srul Itza Posted: November 24, 2008 at 11:49 PM (#3015199)
So is the theory, then, that when Wang pitches, the Yankees suddenly become better fielders than when Pettitte pitches? Jeter suddenly develops extra range?
Page 1 of 1 pages

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 2-8-2012
(5 - 11:40am, Feb 08)
Last: chris h. is a member of Team Keefe!

Newsblog'Duk: Tim Lincecum slims down with swim routine, loses appetite for McDonald’s
(196 - 11:40am, Feb 08)
Last: Dock Ellis on Acid

NewsblogBarry Bonds Free to Swing 'Dangerous' Bats ... Again
(14 - 11:40am, Feb 08)
Last: Yankee Redneck is a Pinhead.

NewsblogOT: NBA Monthly Thread, February 2012
(240 - 11:39am, Feb 08)
Last: robinred

NewsblogSources: Cubs’ Starlin Castro Accused Of Sexual Assault
(5583 - 11:37am, Feb 08)
Last: CrosbyBird

NewsblogEdwin Jackson turned down three-year offer from Pirates
(69 - 11:34am, Feb 08)
Last: Yankee Redneck is a Pinhead.

NewsblogBeane To Sign Extension Through 2019
(9 - 11:34am, Feb 08)
Last: Gamingboy

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread: February 2012
(35 - 11:32am, Feb 08)
Last: Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

NewsblogEdes: 'Think Factory' projects falloff for Ellsbury
(8 - 11:29am, Feb 08)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogOlbermann: 40 Years Of Steve Carlton
(10 - 11:23am, Feb 08)
Last: Rants Mulliniks (formerly Cold Prosimian)

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player : 1969 Discussion
(63 - 11:18am, Feb 08)
Last: bjhanke

NewsblogBPro: Wyers: Reintroducing PECOTA
(5 - 11:13am, Feb 08)
Last: andrewberg

NewsblogFangraphs: Dave Cameron's Top 10 Transactions
(15 - 11:10am, Feb 08)
Last: Something Other

NewsblogCollege Football: Postseason Thread
(327 - 10:54am, Feb 08)
Last: Every Inge Counts

NewsblogTigers' Dombrowski confident in Fielder's longevity
(12 - 10:49am, Feb 08)
Last: The Good Face

Buy MLB playoff tickets, plus 2011 World Series, 2011 ALCS tickets and NLCS game tickets. We also have Texas Rangers playoff schedule, tickets to Red Sox games and Yankees game tickets. Plus, buy Phillies baseball tickets, Tigers playoff tickets and the biggies like ALDS baseball tickets and 2011 NLDS tickets.

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets.

Page rendered in 0.3036 seconds
37 querie(s) executed