Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, November 24, 2008

Baseball Musings/Pinto: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2008, Defense Behind Pitchers

As we know, a pitcher’s ERA can be influenced by the defense behind him. This posts explores which pitchers were helped or hurt by their defenses based on how well fielders turned balls in play into outs based on how difficult they were off the bat.

This is interesting information. I’d like to see how well this tracks over several years - I think this might help point to a reason why Wang, for example, has been successful despite low K rates.

Mike Emeigh Posted: November 24, 2008 at 11:14 AM | 9 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. Randy Jones  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 10:37 AM (#3014804)
So, does this list differentiate between types of BIP beyond flyball/groundball? I thought there was evidence that some pitchers (read sinkerballers) generate easier to field BIP than other pitchers? If that is the case, wouldn't this list be an indication of that skill rather than a rating of the defense behind the pitchers(hence Wang being at the top of the list while the other Yankee pitchers are near the bottom)?
   2. Mike Emeigh  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 11:12 AM (#3014834)
So, does this list differentiate between types of BIP beyond flyball/groundball?


PMR builds in a difficulty factor based on ball location and velocity. The predicted DER is an indicator of how (relatively) easy the balls behind the pitcher are to field. Wang's predicted DER is .657 - which means that he is actually giving up balls that are relatively difficult to field, normally. Part of the reason for that is that Wang had (in 2008, anyway) a high rate of line drives in play (21.2%). Contrast that to groundballer Carmona, who had only 12.7% LDIP - and a predicted DER of .711.

-- MWE
   3. Mike Webber  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 11:27 AM (#3014850)
So are Carmona and Sanchez guys likely to improve, because things may even out? Or is it a thing that says "These pitchers are similar to knuckleballers in that normal DIPS doesn't work right for them."
   4. Superunknown Gary Geiger Counter  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 11:40 AM (#3014858)
DER is essentially the inverse of BABIP, right? Why doen't anyone us SLIP (Slugging in play) instead?
   5. Mike Emeigh  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 01:45 PM (#3014945)
Why doesn't anyone use SLIP (Slugging in play) instead?


SLIP doesn't really tell you anything that in-play BA doesn't. Most in-play EBH are doubles, and doubles as a percentage of hits allowed doesn't have a lot of variance between pitchers.

-- MWE
   6. Superunknown Gary Geiger Counter  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 02:05 PM (#3014961)
SLIP doesn't really tell you anything that in-play BA doesn't. Most in-play EBH are doubles, and doubles as a percentage of hits allowed doesn't have a lot of variance between pitchers.


OK, but what about the flip side of SLIP? Wouldn't that indicate which teams had bad outfield defense?
   7. Mike Emeigh  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 02:15 PM (#3014970)
OK, but what about the flip side of SLIP? Wouldn't that indicate which teams had bad outfield defense?


Again, not to any great degree; the variance in doubles allowed as a function of hits in play is too small.

-- MWE
   8. Mike Emeigh  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 02:31 PM (#3014988)
So are Carmona and Sanchez guys likely to improve, because things may even out?


Carmona had one of the highest percentage of "easy" balls in play, in part because he allowed only 12.7% LDIP. It is extremely unusual for a GB pitcher to have an expected DER which is that high - Webb's never been over .700, for example - and it sounds as though Carmona might have made some changes last year that caused balls to be hit in different locations than his fielders expected.

I'd love to see Pinto do some breakdowns by in-play ball type, like he did for Wang a year ago.

-- MWE
   9. Srul Itza  Posted: November 24, 2008 at 06:49 PM (#3015199)
So is the theory, then, that when Wang pitches, the Yankees suddenly become better fielders than when Pettitte pitches? Jeter suddenly develops extra range?
Page 1 of 1 pages

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

<< Back to main

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'.
for his generous support.

My Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Vivid Seats is a sports ticket broker, concert ticket broker and theater ticket broker offering the best baseball tickets like Yankees tickets, Cubs tickets, and Red Sox tickets, as well as Police reunion tour tickets and Jersey Boys tickets.

We have baseball tickets, the NFL schedule, college football tickets and Cowboys tickets. We have NBA tickets like Celtics tickets and Lakers tickets. Plus, buy concert tickets, Patriots tickets and Colts tickets. Also check out our MLB baseball schedule

Baseball Bats

JustGreatTickets.com provides the best value for Chicago Cubs Tickets, MLB tickets including Red Sox Tickets, Yankees Tickets, SF Giants Tickets, LA Dodgers Tickets, Cleveland Indians Tickets. Get the best concert tickets like Jonas Brothers tickets and more Chicago Tickets.

Concerts Theatre NFL Angels Dodgers MLB Celtics Theater NBA Tickets Venues NHL Lakers Tickets NFL Yankees NHL Phillies NBA Wicked Marlins MLB Concerts Cubs Mets Red Sox Wicked WWE Red Sox Mets Yankees Dodgers

Major League Baseball: All Star Game, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, LA Angels, Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, and the Chicago Cubs.

Find terrific deals on Yankees tickets for the new home, Cubs tickets for classic Wrigley, or Red Sox tickets for Fenway with OnlineSeats. We have seats for every baseball game, including Dodgers tickets.

Page rendered in 11.7916 seconds
82 querie(s) executed