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Thursday, January 31, 2008

Baseball Prospectus: Goldstein: Top 100 Prospects

Another year...and still no sign of Ntema Ndungidi.

1. Jay Bruce, of, Reds
2. Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
3. Evan Longoria, 3b, Rays
4. Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
5. Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Dodgers
6. David Price, lhp, Rays
7. Travis Snider, of, Blue Jays
8. Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals
9. Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds
10. Cameron Maybin, of, Marlins

Repoz Posted: January 31, 2008 at 12:39 PM | 55 comment(s)
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1. 1k5v3L Posted: January 31, 2008 at 01:55 PM (#2680853)

I wonder if Justin Upton would've cracked the top 25 this time around, had he remained a prospect. The guy's got more tools than Home Depot, but Kevin just doesn't feel him, dog, just doesn't feel him...

2. Guapo Posted: January 31, 2008 at 01:58 PM (#2680856)

Don't let me dow-own... Bruce!

3. Cuddyer Mak'er Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:00 PM (#2680862)

Is it safe to say the Indians' time is (or had better be) now? Two guys on the list, none in the top 50.

4. Sam M. Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:04 PM (#2680865)

So the Twins got # 65 and # 79, huh?

Don't let me dow-own... Bruce!

Geez, the guy's name is Bruce! The least you could do is go for . . .

I had a friend, was a big baseball player . . . Bruce!

5. Reno Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:05 PM (#2680866)

For those interested, I contacted him about Phil Hughes vs. Clay Buccholz, and he has Hughes just below Bruce and way above Buccholz.

6. Skinner! Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:09 PM (#2680872)

Well, the Twins got two of the top 79 in their deal for Santana. Well, actually, nums. 65 and 79 for Santana.

7. 1k5v3L Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:11 PM (#2680875)

Dbacks would've had 6 in the top 100, which ain't bad... of course, three of those 6 are now in Oakland. And I'm assuming Upton would've been somewhere near the top of this list had he remained a rookie... I'd put him first overall but Kevin has broken my dreams on plenty of occasions in the past.

8. 1k5v3L Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:12 PM (#2680876)

For those interested, I contacted him about Phil Hughes vs. Clay Buccholz, and he has Hughes just below Bruce and way above Buccholz.

Kevin has always like Cano better than Pedroia too, and we all know how those two turned out.

9. In what respect, Craig K? Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:13 PM (#2680877)

3 Cardinals.

10. OCD SS Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:14 PM (#2680878)

Isn't his #100 usually meant to be a "controversy pick?" Putting Lars Andersen at #100 sets up a nice dichotomy with BA, as Callis really loves Lars and I don't think Goldstein is nearly as high on him.

11. AJM Misses Brodeur Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:16 PM (#2680879)

Martinez #51? Wasn't he top 20 last year?

12. 1k5v3L Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:16 PM (#2680880)

Goldstein chat going on now

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=423

13. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's and S&P! Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:16 PM (#2680881)

Which teams had 0? I didn't see any White Sox or Astros, but I just glanced at it looking for my own name, really.

14. Edmundo, survivor of 7 right-sourcings Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:18 PM (#2680884)

Is it safe to say the Indians' time is (or had better be) now? Two guys on the list, none in the top 50.

Ditto the Phils.

15. Danny Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:20 PM (#2680885)

I wonder if Justin Upton would've cracked the top 25 this time around, had he remained a prospect. The guy's got more tools than Home Depot, but Kevin just doesn't feel him, dog, just doesn't feel him...

He rated him above Parker (and Chris Young) on the D-Backs best under 25 list. But you knew that...

16. Dingbat Charlie Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:24 PM (#2680887)

Astros

Towles.

17. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:27 PM (#2680892)

Which teams had 0? I didn't see any White Sox or Astros, but I just glanced at it looking for my own name, really.

No one. Here's a quick breakdown:

7 prospects listed:
Athletics
Rangers
Red Sox

6 prospects:
Rays
Braves

5 prospects:
Rockies
Yankees

4 prospects:
Angels
Dodgers
Mariners
Reds

3 prospects:
Brewers
Cardinals
Diamonbacks
Nationals
Orioles
Padres
Pirates
Twins

2 prospects:
Cubs
Giants
Indians
Marlins
Phillies
Royals

1 prospect:
Astros
Blue Jays
Mets
Tigers
White Sox

18. rfloh Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:29 PM (#2680893)

didn't see any White Sox or Astros,

54. J.R. Towles, c, Astros

87. Aaron Poreda, lhp, White Sox

I believe every team had one at least.

19. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:31 PM (#2680896)

By position:

rhp - 35
of - 24 (23 if you count Chris Marrero as a 1b)
lhp - 10
3b - 8
ss - 9 (8 if you count Brandon Wood as a 3b)
c - 7
1b - 5
2b - 1

20. Reno Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:37 PM (#2680904)

Kevin has always like Cano better than Pedroia too, and we all know how those two turned out

That's true. He was right about that one, so I guess his track record is pretty good.

21. 1k5v3L Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:41 PM (#2680908)

Well, Reno, he also had Callaspo above Pedroia...

Danny, I knew that. I am still bitter about Goldstein ranking JUpton 29th on his 2007 list...

22. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:47 PM (#2680915)

"Ntema Ndungidi"

I have a feeling that there wasn't a happy ending to that story, unfortunately. Last record of him had him playing indy ball in Quebec in 2003.

23. JPWF13 Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:50 PM (#2680919)

Assigning a value based upon Goldstein's rankings I came up with the following wholly unscientific system rankings:
Rays 80.4
Reds 54.9
Red Sox 47.3
Dodgers 43.6
Yankees 39.7
Athletics 36.7
Braves 28.9
Rangers 26.7
Cardinals 22
Angels 21.1
Rockies 20.7
Padres 20.5
Orioles 18.8
Mariners 18.7
Nationals 18.4
Blue Jays 17.5
Pirates 17.4
Marlins 17.3
Brewers 16.5
Diamondbacks 16.1
Tigers 15.5
Royals 14.5
Cubs 12.3
Giants 10.5
Indians 6.4
Twins 5.9
Mets 4.5
Astros 4.1
Phillies 3.8
White Sox 1.5

24. Holliday in Alameda (jonathan) Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:53 PM (#2680925)

Funny that he ranks Barton higher than Gonzalez for us.

And, if nothing else this season, at least as an A's fan prospect lists are fun to pay attention to again.

25. 1k5v3L Posted: January 31, 2008 at 02:55 PM (#2680928)

From Goldstein's chat

LindInMoskva (DC): Any regrets on last year's list or does some amount of acceptable error always enter into any process no matter how well refined?

Kevin Goldstein: Sure, there are always going to be mistakes. Last year's list had two major ones, and both were makeup related, on both ends of the spectrum.

1. Dustin Pedroia
2. Justin Upton

...
JR (New Hampshire): Are you implying that you ranked Pedroia too low considering his great makeup and Upton too high considering his bad makeup? If so, what's wrong with Upton's makeup?

Kevin Goldstein: On Pedroia, yes. On Upton, while it's clearly in his past, his effort level in 2006 here in the Midwest League stunk, no doubt about it. And I dinged him too hard for it, because his raw talent is borderline historic.

26. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's and S&P! Posted: January 31, 2008 at 03:00 PM (#2680931)

Kevin Goldstein: Sure, there are always going to be mistakes. Last year's list had two major ones, and both were makeup related, on both ends of the spectrum.

I know it speaks ill of me, but when I hear sports people talk about makeup it always makes me chuckle.

27. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: January 31, 2008 at 03:05 PM (#2680938)

I know it speaks ill of me, but when I hear sports people talk about makeup it always makes me chuckle.

It makes me blush.

28. 1k5v3L Posted: January 31, 2008 at 03:06 PM (#2680940)

Using "makeup issues" as an excuse is a cheap way to weasel out of saying "I totally blew it"

29. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: January 31, 2008 at 03:06 PM (#2680941)

White Sox 1.5

Wish we could've come up with that before SoxFest. That thing was reportedly a love-in, with fumes from 2005 still wafting through the hotel.

30. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: January 31, 2008 at 03:07 PM (#2680943)

Ten of Goldstein's Top 25 prospects are from the AL East. Of Law's Top 25, 11 come from the AL East. And Law has Jake McGee at 26 and Lars Anderson at 28.

Things aren't going to be getting any easier in that division in the future.

31. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 31, 2008 at 03:08 PM (#2680944)

Here's a quick breakdown....

Anyone willing to figure out what the standings would be if you assigned a point value to every spot, from 100 down to 1? I'm guessing the Rays would destroy everyone. From a glance, it looks like they have 5 guys before about 1/2 the teams get their first, and then 6 before the about 1/4 of the teams get anyone on the list. Even the teams with 7 of the top 100 overall don't seem to be anywhere near them in this regard.

Edit: Looks like JPWF already did something like this while I was reading/typing. Thanks!

32. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's and S&P! Posted: January 31, 2008 at 03:09 PM (#2680945)

I know it speaks ill of me, but when I hear sports people talk about makeup it always makes me chuckle.

It makes me blush.

Dammit. I can't believe I missed that one. Nice.

33. mopar Posted: January 31, 2008 at 03:34 PM (#2680971)

Why do sportswriters use "makeup"? Is it because they're ugly?

34. a bebop a rebop Posted: January 31, 2008 at 03:47 PM (#2680989)

Using "makeup issues" as an excuse is a cheap way to weasel out of saying "I totally blew it"

And levski's still bitter.

35. Mudpout Posted: January 31, 2008 at 03:58 PM (#2680997)

Is citing "makeup issues" really weaseling his way out? Before mentioning makeup, he says that he made two mistakes, "major ones". Now he brings up makeup to explain why he made those mistakes, but at that point he's really just discussing a part of a player's profile that he got wrong. Would it be different if he'd undervalued somebody's fielding, or overvalued somebody's patience?

36. chris p Posted: January 31, 2008 at 03:59 PM (#2681000)

Using "makeup issues" as an excuse is a cheap way to weasel out of saying "I totally blew it"

like this?

37. JJ1986 Posted: January 31, 2008 at 04:01 PM (#2681001)

Pedroia didn't suddenly improve because of his makeup, though. He just continued to be the player he always had. Goldstein blew the evaluation because he thought Dustin couldn't maintain it (I guess it's a height thing?), not because Pedroia suddenly reached another level of performance.

38. retro-shiite Posted: January 31, 2008 at 04:02 PM (#2681005)

The guy's got more tools than Home Depot, but Kevin just doesn't feel him,

Of course not. It'd be physically impossible, as he's got both hands down Pedroia's pants. ;-)

39. MSI Posted: January 31, 2008 at 04:21 PM (#2681020)

Jim Callis recently said in a chat Adam Jones would be a top 10 prospect. So the Mariners are shelling out a lot more for Erik Bedard than the Mets did for Santana.

40. Thought Riot Posted: January 31, 2008 at 04:28 PM (#2681029)

Jim Callis recently said in a chat Adam Jones would be a top 10 prospect. So the Mariners are shelling out a lot more for Erik Bedard than the Mets did for Santana.

Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein both also said that very same thing about Jones.

41. JPWF13 Posted: January 31, 2008 at 04:29 PM (#2681030)

oldstein blew the evaluation because he thought Dustin couldn't maintain it (I guess it's a height thing?), not because Pedroia suddenly reached another level of performance.

didn't everyone's prospect list seriously underrate Pedroia?
I think the only system that didn't was Pecota- but the BPro boys threw that out and decided that was a case of Pecota going off the farm...

42. Mudpout Posted: January 31, 2008 at 04:35 PM (#2681034)

Isn't it even less like he weaseled his way out if there wasn't a change in Pedroia's makeup? When discussing Upton, he points to what looks like a change in attitude for the better, but about Pedroia he clearly says he undervalued the importance of Pedroia's makeup. That might make for a misjudged prospect, but he seems pretty upfront about it.

43. Adam S Posted: January 31, 2008 at 04:43 PM (#2681046)

I think the only system that didn't was Pecota- but the BPro boys threw that out and decided that was a case of Pecota going off the farm...

IIRC, Nate Silver did an article combining the PECOTA and Goldstein rankings. he said he thought it was probably better than either of individual lists. I also recall him saying that PECOTA, which had Pedroia as something like its #6 prospect, might overvallue him somewhat as so many good second basemen were converted shortstops rather than 2B prospects, which somehow threw off his valuation system. However, he also said several times that he thought everyone else, including Goldstein, were seriously undervaluing Pedroia.

44. vanilladrop Posted: January 31, 2008 at 04:49 PM (#2681055)

Reno, how recently did you ask Goldstein how Hughes and Buchholz compared? Because in a chat about a month or so ago, he said "Buchholz over Hughes, Explanation: better stuff". I couldn't find the direct link on Baseball Prospectus because it seems like they don't keep the older chats online. Also, many people have asked Hughes/Buchholz/Joba comparison questions, and he has usually said he likes them all. Sometimes he'll slightly prefer one to the other, although in his recent chats he seems to liked Buchholz the most. Just wondering why he would suddenly say he has Hughes rated "way above" Buchholz, when he has rated them closely these past few months.

45. 1k5v3L Posted: January 31, 2008 at 04:54 PM (#2681060)

Damn right I'm bitter.

Plus, it's good for people to know how to weasel out of things. That's what makes humans different from other animals... except the weasel.

46. DKDC Posted: January 31, 2008 at 05:12 PM (#2681088)

Pedroia was rated #6 by PECOTA last year, and #25 on the hybrid (PECOTA/Goldstein) top 60.

Goldstein deserves to eat some crow for leaving him off the top 100, but I don't think he was underrated at #25. There are plenty of players more underrated - ranked lower than Pedroia and arguably a more valuable property now.

25 Dustin Pedroia
29 Adam Jones
36 Troy Tulowitzki
40 Hunter Pence
50 Joba Chamberlain
51 Colby Rasmus
52 Justin Upton

47. Shooty: Now rated AAA by Moody's and S&P! Posted: January 31, 2008 at 05:33 PM (#2681119)

If anybody nailed a top 100 prospects list, I would boil them alive for they would have to be an agent of Satan.

48. Ennder Posted: January 31, 2008 at 06:01 PM (#2681161)

You are also using a single season of players to try to say someones list was bad which isn't a good idea. Pedroia could have already had his career year for all we know. He didn't exactly weasel out of anything, he admitted straight up that he made a major mistake with them.

49. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: January 31, 2008 at 06:38 PM (#2681222)

Interesting. Goldstein ranks Jurrjens as the lone Braves pitching prospect, over Hanson and Rohrbough.
Law interesting doesn't rank Feliz, but Goldstein has him in the top 30!

50. batpig Posted: January 31, 2008 at 06:43 PM (#2681227)

Using "makeup issues" as an excuse is a cheap way to weasel out of saying "I totally blew it"

Um, I don't think it's weaseling out when you admit you made a "major mistake". Someone is failing to grasp the difference between an "excuse" and an "explanation."

There are many athletes with great talent who never reached their potential because of attitude/effort issues, and he admits he "dinged him too hard". The guy basically said he blew the ranking, what more do you want besides an excuse to be a bitter grouch? Was the problem that his choice of eating-crow-terminology wasn't ver batem what you would have liked to see?

51. booond Posted: February 02, 2008 at 12:54 PM (#2682264)

The only real issue with Upton is not whether he weaseled but taking the kid's "makeup" as a consideration in the first place. A nineteen-year-old kid away from home for an extended period for the first time and we expect him to be perfect. Please. And was he there to see what heinous act the kid committed to sully his "makeup?" Elijah dukes, yes, you can talk about his "makeup" but with Upton it was ludicrous.

52. kevin Posted: February 02, 2008 at 12:59 PM (#2682265)

Wow, 7 Red Sox in the top 100. A little surprised Kalish is rated so highly

53. kevin Posted: February 02, 2008 at 01:01 PM (#2682266)

That's true. He was right about that one, so I guess his track record is pretty good.

???

Try counting the ringgzzzz!

54. kevin Posted: February 02, 2008 at 01:04 PM (#2682270)

didn't everyone's prospect list seriously underrate Pedroia?

Not mine, baby! Not mine!

55. InThroughTheOutDoor Posted: February 02, 2008 at 01:22 PM (#2682274)

Am I crazy if I think David Price is kind of...underwhelming?

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