So, is the Linebrink trade a solution, or just a part of the problem?

Linebrink hasn't been very good, but bringing in him in at that point in the game last night was just weird.

Ah--I see this article was written before last night's game. Well, last night just emphasizes the point.

2007 Brewers = 2003 Royals. I hope they don't fall apart like KC did after that season.

The Brewers have blown a lot of leads this year — 13 times they have been ahead by at least three runs, and gone on to lose the ballgame. Even more remarkably, nine of those losses have come since July 28, which is the sort of thing that gets managers and pitching coaches fired.

After last night, make that 14, and ten.

Several other teams did blow exactly 13 games and make the playoffs — but of course, the Brewers still have five more weeks to surpass that threshold.

Done. See above.

Pee your pants for the Brewers is beginning to take on an ugly, bitter meaning. Not unlike Coors Lite.

Hey levksi, I think the Padres and DBacks will go down to the last weekend now (I said that about three weeks ago, but I feel more sure now). What do you think?

Of course, the loser will likely get the WC, so it won't really mean ####.

2007 Brewers = 2003 Royals. I hope they don't fall apart like KC did after that season.

Yeah, except the Brewers have a legit core of good to very good young players, to build around who are far from free agency.

2007 Brewers = 2003 Royals

Regardless of what happens the rest of the way, the Brewers (what with Braun & Prince & Hardy & Hall) are set to contend for the next few years (especially in the Central), and comparing them to a team that relied on Chris George & Kyle Snyder & JOSE LIMA every 5th day is just plain rude. Even if the Brewers' pitching staff makes that Royals' staff look like the mid-90s Braves rotation.

Yeah, except the Brewers have a legit core of good to very good young players, to build around who are far from free agency.

They also have Doug Melvin instead of Allard Baird.

The Brewers are in a good position long-term. I think they may need to fire Yost, though. Wonder what Harveys thinks?

robin:

See the other thread discussing last night's Brewers game. Or a thread I posted the other day on Ned's verbal broadside toward Bill Hall.

Or maybe you know the answer and just want my blood pressure to skyrocket.

Speaking of which, a few weekends ago the grandkids were over and found my blood pressure monitor. So the youngest puts it on my arm to see how it works. This was when the Brewers were melting down against the Cardinals. So she is checking it and reads out the final numbers. My wife is walking by and asks here to repeat the display. 190/126.

Normal for me is 118/75 or so.

Wife turned off the radio.

So far that's the record............

Yeah, except the Brewers have a legit core of good to very good young players, to build around who are far from free agency.

They also have Doug Melvin instead of Allard Baird.

Yes, and yes. The Brewers should do well in the next few years, especially given the weakness of the Central; the Pirates are the Pirates, the Astros are bereft of good young talent that might lift them out of their suckitude, and the Reds are the Reds. Add that to the aging of the Cardinals and their dearth of good prospects and the Cubs' perpetual ability to shoot themselves in the foot, well...the Brewers are in good shape if they can shore up the pitching staff. (What's their system look like in terms of good young pitching, other than Gallardo?)

Harveys has me convinced that Yost is an impediment to the team's further progress (especially if he's letting petty spats with players determine his lineups and in-game strategy which seems to be the case), so replacing him would be another step forward.

Speaking of which, a few weekends ago the grandkids were over and found my blood pressure monitor. So the youngest puts it on my arm to see how it works. This was when the Brewers were melting down against the Cardinals. So she is checking it and reads out the final numbers. My wife is walking by and asks here to repeat the display. 190/126.

Normal for me is 118/75 or so.

Wife turned off the radio.

Take care of yourself, Harv. We need to keep you around here awhile.

Speaking of which, I need to climb back on the wagon with respect to my diet. I've gotten lax of late.

2007 Brewers = 2003 Royals. I hope they don't fall apart like KC did after that season.

A bigger worry for the Brew Crew might be the '03 Cubs who looked liked they had a great young core but frittered it away. 'course the Brewer hitters have already developed while the Cub hitters never did. And hitters are better bets than young pitchers all the time.

My wife is walking by and asks here to repeat the display. 190/126.

Normal for me is 118/75 or so.

Wife turned off the radio.

Harvey I hate to break it to you, but you may have to do what Vinny Testaverdi's dad did when his son was playing- don't watch or listen- tape the game, if the Brewers win, you can watch later.

Regarding BPro I wonder if the writer who wrote me back claiming I was being an "alarmist" and overly negative when I stated my concerns in an e-mail will ever write back with some sort of apology. As usual, I got the standard 'sample size' comment.

I am getting so tired of that phrase. Every d*mn time I try and have a discussion with anyone writing a blog or at BPro of The Hardball Times the IMMEDIATE response is "sample size". It's like a d*mn doll with a string. Pull it out and it squawks, "sample size, sample size".

I am sure they get their share of silly e-mails. But particularly if you are, say, A SUBSCRIBER you might get the benefit of the doubt when you DO take the time to lay out the particulars?

I know they don't know "Me" and have no idea as to the nature of my background. But cripes. I just don't understand a customer service approach where the seemingly standard response is an ill-mannered, snark-filled "lesson" on critical thinking.

Sigh...........................

Regarding BPro I wonder if the writer who wrote me back claiming I was being an "alarmist" and overly negative when I stated my concerns in an e-mail will ever write back with some sort of apology. As usual, I got the standard 'sample size' comment.

I am getting so tired of that phrase. Every d*mn time I try and have a discussion with anyone writing a blog or at BPro of The Hardball Times the IMMEDIATE response is "sample size". It's like a d*mn doll with a string. Pull it out and it squawks, "sample size, sample size".

I am sure they get their share of silly e-mails. But particularly if you are, say, A SUBSCRIBER you might get the benefit of the doubt when you DO take the time to lay out the particulars?

I know they don't know "Me" and have no idea as to the nature of my background. But cripes. I just don't understand a customer service approach where the seemingly standard response is an ill-mannered, snark-filled "lesson" on critical thinking.

Sigh...........................

You should send this post to them.

I know they don't know "Me" and have no idea as to the nature of my background. But cripes. I just don't understand a customer service approach where the seemingly standard response is an ill-mannered, snark-filled "lesson" on critical thinking.

I still buy the BP annual because it's cheap, and is still a pretty good "instant reference" relative to other stuff out there (though its quality has gone seriously downhill over time--and their books are always riddled with annoying typos [for instance, according to this year's book, every old player in baseball was born on December 31, 1969]), but the guys and girl who run it seem, anecdotally, to be complete tools with lousy social skills and a serious more-brilliant-than-thou complex.

Robin:

I write both regularly. I am either on an "ignore" list of some kin or perhaps they do get so much e-mail traffic they are unable to reply.

I am getting so tired of that phrase. Every d*mn time I try and have a discussion with anyone writing a blog or at BPro of The Hardball Times the IMMEDIATE response is "sample size". It's like a d*mn doll with a string. Pull it out and it squawks, "sample size, sample size".

Not all articles are like that. Maybe you're just looking at an inappropriately small sample size of articles.

(ducks).

2007 Brewers = 2003 Royals. I hope they don't fall apart like KC did after that season.

Don't see it. The 2003 KC Royals were really a 60-70 win team that simply got extraordinarily lucky for one year (their Pythag was 78-84, and their "3rd order" percentage was even lower- they scored more runs than they "should" have and gave up less).

The 2003 Royals team OPS+ was just 91. And that includes a 96 in 600 PAs from Angel Berroa (career 77)
126 from Carlos Beltran (not long for the team)
107 from Aaron Guiel in 401 PAs (career 87, 401 PAs was his high water mark)
Aside from Mike Sweeney, every other regular or quasi regular was under 100 (and aside from Ibanez no one really had an off year- they were/are just bad).

That is a putrid lineup.

They got a 135 ERA+ out of Darrell May in 210 ip (career 92- no other season over 100)
They got a 129 ERA+ in 126 ip out of Affeldt (career 102- 2003 was clearly his most valuable season to date).

No one else had 100ip or more, but seemingly everyone was around 90-110 ERA+ (even Lima).
Collectively the team ERA+ was 100 BUT if you took the collective career ERA+ of those pitchers it would likely be 90 AT BEST.

Basically the stars all aligned for the 2003 KC royals and a 60-65 win team on talent, got 83.

The 2003 Royals had Beltran (who wasn't long for the team)
The 2007 Brewers have
Prince Fielder (no 2003 KC equivalent)
JJ Hardy (who will be vastly superior to Angel Berroa I suspect)
Ryan Braun (no 2003 KC equivalent)
Jenkins (roughly equivalent to 2003 Sweeney- that's a push)
Bill Hall (not quite Beltran- but based upon 2005/06 not that far off the Royals version)
Corey Hart (no 2003 KC equivalent? Ibanez?)

Pitching- the 2007 Brewers have a bunch of guys UNDER performing their career ERA+s

The 2007 Brewers are not lucky.

retro:

Nah. Nate Silver is a sharp guy who is pleasant. Jay Jaffe same thing. Huckaby. There is personality there.

The issue is Sheehan. Look, the guy is the Chris Berman of BPro. He was there from the beginning (like Berman). It's clear he must have provided some kind of financial stake. His tone and style is the very worst of the perceived "saber style". He's belligerent and arrogant with nowhere near the Bill Jamesian smarts needed to BE belligerent and arrogant in public. Bill asks insightful questions that weren't or haven't been asked. Sheehan just blathers on how so and so is stupid. Big difference.

Not that I have had any exchanges via e-mail with Sheehan. My stuff with him was firsthand. I quickly discerned that it was pointless as any "suggestions" are perceived as coming from someone who is "stupid" or "doesn't understand".

Meanwhile the frequency of his posts continues to decrease while the quality isn't improved. If they eliminated him completely from the writing staff and just let him collect his royalty checks that would be fine with me........

#23

The frequency of his posts continues to decrease? Seriously? It seems to me he is BPro's most prolific writer. I would gladly pay a higher fee if they replaced all his articles with articles by Christina Kahrl, Silver, Dan Fox, Kevin Goldstein.

<edit: typos>

Not much to add here, except to say Kahrl's Transaction Analysis columns are some of the best baseball writing to be had on the internet, and those and Fox's articles are by themselves worth the yearly subscription cost.

Jay Jaffe same thing.

It's Chris Jaffe. And I should have specifically omitted him from my over-generalized comment (though I think it's apt for a number of their writers--or maybe it's just Sheehan, whose toolboxitude is well documented).

I should have listed Goldstein. Kevin does great work.

I find CK's articles to be a re-hashing of events long past.

There are a bevy of fine writers. But that new one, Perrto?, makes me wonder about the direction. He's just the BPro version of the AP news wire. All fluff pieces. What's the value? Goldman just wants to be a wise guy. That's great if the readers are all 14 years old. But that schtick is already old. Get a fresh routine and stop watching Seinfeld re-runs.......

Hey levksi, I think the Padres and DBacks will go down to the last weekend now (I said that about three weeks ago, but I feel more sure now). What do you think?

Of course, the loser will likely get the WC, so it won't really mean ####.

Well, it'll mean ####, as in who gets to avoid the #### NL East winner. But yes, September will be really interesting.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'll go back to putting needles in my Milton Bradley doll.

I thought Jay Jaffe was at BPro and Chris Jaffe was at Hardballtimes.com

It's Chris Jaffe.

Nope, it's Jay - he writes the BP Hit Lists. Chris Jaffe writes for THT.

Nobody ever mentions Jim Baker. I like his stuff. He's good at finding interesting slants on things from a historical or geek driven perspective. He writes what J Stark thinks he's writing. I think Sheehan is supposed to be their lightning rod. I'm not sure why they think they need one, though.

John Perrotto is a Pittsburgh-area writer - Beaver County Times - who was at one time the only writer who dared to be critical of the McClatchy/Nutting ownership.

It IS Jay Jaffe who writes for BPros - not Chris. Chris writes for THT.

-- MWE

I agree about Perrotto, Harveys. They did a good job on selection--he's one of the very best beat writers, a downright reasonable guy--but his stuff always feels out of place at BP, since it's 70% content-free quotes like most beat-writer articles are, and I'm pretty sure he represents BP committing to moving more into Raccoon Lodge territory with a mind toward grabbing more of the mass market (read: espn.com's market.) I'm dubious that that's a good thing for its overall quality of content.

And yes, Jim Baker's in the Pantheon with Rob Neyer among my very favorite baseball writers.

...[Perroto's] stuff always feels out of place at BP, since it's 70% content-free quotes like most beat-writer articles are...

Yeah, I've noticed that, too - it's pretty strange to read an article that sounds like daily-paper stuff, but w/ BP stats in place of the Triple Crown stats.

At the beginning of the year, Sheehan was in love with the Dbacks. Then halfway through he jumped off. Then recently he was seen clawing his way back on... while at the same time pretending to be dangling off the horse's tail. And he continues to claim that Tony Pena is a "changeup specialist", and I don't think Pena has ever thrown a decent changeup in his life.

Personally, I find it hard to believe Sheehan is anyone's lightning rod; he's more like a plugged in hair dryer in a full tub of water.

It IS Jay Jaffe who writes for BPros - not Chris. Chris writes for THT.

Gah--I can't keep them all straight; in fact, I wasn't even aware there were two Jaffes in the baseblogging circles. (How common a name is Jaffe, anyway? I don't think I've ever known one other than Chris [who's quite a nice guy, BTW].) My bad.

Regardless of what happens the rest of the way, the Brewers (what with Braun & Prince & Hardy & Hall) are set to contend for the next few years (especially in the Central), and comparing them to a team that relied on Chris George & Kyle Snyder & JOSE LIMA every 5th day is just plain rude. Even if the Brewers' pitching staff makes that Royals' staff look like the mid-90s Braves rotation.

The funny thing is, the Royals 2003 starting rotation performed better as a whole than the Brewers rotation of 2007 once you adjust for park factors. Shouldn't you be saying the Brewers staff this year makes the 2003 Royals starters look like the mid-90's Braves rather than the other way around?

Add that to the aging of the Cardinals and their dearth of good prospects...

Very good chance that one year from now a Cardinal starting lineup will include:

c-Molina (26 yrs. old, homegrown)
1b-Pujols (28 yrs. old, homegrown)
ss-Ryan (26 yrs. old, homegrown)
lf-Duncan (27 yrs. old, homegrown)
cf-Rasmus (22 yrs. old, homegrown)
rf-Ankiel (29 yrs. old, homegrown)

Now, only one guy here is truly a prospect (Rasmus), but the only old, declining hitters on the team are Edmonds & Rolen, and I think Rolen is salvageable with off-season surgery to address scar tissue in his shoulder, which is robbing him of his power.

The Birds do have some decent pitchers in the pipe as well (yes, TINSTAAPP), and overall, I'm more excited about the 2008 Cardinals than I am the 2007 team. The Cubs and Brewers still have enough issues that I don't see either one morphing into a 95-win team, off-season moves notwithstanding.

Other than Rasmus, I wouldn't call any of those guys "prospects" (OK, you acknowledge as much, but let me elaborate). Pujols is obviously fully-formed (I suppose he could get even better), Molina's not likely to get any better than he already is (and I think he's over his head offensively this year), and the same goes for Ryan, Duncan and Ankiel. I guess I don't see that as the core of an up-and-coming team; not that the Cards don't have the resources to contend in this division. But I don't think they have the poential to dominate it for several years that the Brewers do.

Regarding the Brewers 2008 chances it's pretty clear that Gallardo and Parra will be in the rotation. Suppan has a spot because of his contract. Sheets if healthy.

The number five will be up for grabs. If Inman were around he would have a legit chance. Alas, he is in San Diego.

The Cubs and Brewers still have enough issues that I don't see either one morphing into a 95-win team, off-season moves notwithstanding.

No argument there.

HW, what's your sense for other pitchers for next season? Arb-eligible guys like Capuano, Bush, Vargas? You think one of them will be in the rotation and the others will be assigned to bullpen duty, or Melvin will see if they have any trade value at all? Also, I haven't really heard anything about Cordero coming back. You have a feeling for whether he likes it here, or if he's eager to leave?

My fantasy is that

--Chris Duncan hits in 2008 the way he did most of this year (.280/.350/.550) while improving vs. lefties;
--Rick Ankiel continues to hit in 2008 the way he has in 2007 (.290/.350/.600), while playing good D;
--Rasmus takes over from Edmonds and hits .270/.330/.430 while playing great D;
--Rolen has the surgery and hits like he did just one year ago (70+ XBH), and plays good D.
--Molina [as I've always predicted he would!!] hits .275+ and continues to evolve as a hitter.

You add Albert's 170 OPS+ to those guys, and some league-average starting pitching and you've got a pretty good team, at least in the NL Central....

The only sort of farfetched item above is Ankiel, and realistically there's no reason why he can't give you at least a 100 OPS+ with good defense, which would be an improvement over the starting right fielder of 2006's World Championship squad...

And my fantasy is that the Padres kick some serious ST Louis ass in the playoffs this year!

That World Series banner they are going to hang next spring, just won't feel quite complete unless they go through St Louis.

of course its just my fantasy.

In reality, I'll #### my pants if we win it all, to hell with the birds.

jmp:

Vargas is gone. Bush is likely going to be sent to the bullpen. Capuano will be invited back because he's left-handed.

Cordero should be allowed to walk. Too expensive.

the Brewers may not even get a draft pick back for Linebrink.

that sucks!

Holy crap. Esteban Loaiza--Dodger! Another contract off the books for the A's next year. A-Rod is coming to Oakland!

Very good chance that one year from now a Cardinal starting lineup will include:

c-Molina (26 yrs. old, homegrown)
1b-Pujols (28 yrs. old, homegrown)
ss-Ryan (26 yrs. old, homegrown)
lf-Duncan (27 yrs. old, homegrown)
cf-Rasmus (22 yrs. old, homegrown)
rf-Ankiel (29 yrs. old, homegrown)

Caught your typo. Pujols is 38.

Gotta hand it to Joe. Check out this excerpt on his comment on the Brewers/Cubs game:

I have been getting e-mails for two years about Ned Yost’s handling of his bullpen, and last night’s game inspired another batch. I’m not reaching conclusions here, just pointing out to all of you who have been peppering my inbox that I’ve noticed. The Brewers’ pitchers are to blame for their collapse, but it’s possible that Yost isn’t helping the cause.

Translated:

I didn't think of this so I am reluctant to think the suggestion has merit. But the evidence is so overwhelming I will look a bit foolish if I don't say SOMETHING. So I will qualify the statement as much as possible so as to reserve the right to distance myself from the whole matter since I really don't care about the Brewers.

all this bpro talk makes me think I should subscribe.

By the way, if any of you has any feedback for the team at THT, we're collectively reachable at mailbag@hardballtimes.com.

By the way, if any of you has any feedback for the team at THT, we're collectively reachable at mailbag@hardballtimes.com.

:)

We love THT too!

A-Rod is coming to Oakland!

Ha-ha! That's a good one dude.

By the way, if any of you has any feedback for the team at THT, we're collectively reachable at mailbag@hardballtimes.com.

If you're having trouble coming up with the words, might I suggest:

Dear THT,
Who is the dashing and charming gentleman who writes for you three Mondays per month? I say, give that man a raise!
Warmest Regards,
Not salb918

But seriously, one great thing about THT is it's partnership with ballhype. The instant ability to get instant, public feedback by comments on ballhype has been a real treat for me as a THT writer.

Ha-ha! That's a good one dude.

I am totally serious. How could he resist a chance at a Super Taco from Sam's Drive Thru in San Lorenzo? Sir, I tell you truthfully, he cannot!

Gah--I can't keep them all straight; in fact, I wasn't even aware there were two Jaffes in the baseblogging circles. (How common a name is Jaffe, anyway? I don't think I've ever known one other than Chris [who's quite a nice guy, BTW].) My bad.

It ain't that common a name at all. Jay is the first and only Jaffe I've ever met. Well, not counting White Sox Fan Brother. Or White Sox Fan Father. And of course Why-Couldn't-We-Have-Had-Two-Girls-So-I-Wouldn't-Have-to-Hear-About-Sports-So-Damn-Much Mother. Then there's all the miscallaneous uncles, aunts, some elders, a few cousins, and nowadays nephews. Plus in-laws.

Um, Jay the's only non-relative I've ever met. (Random note: I know he's not even a distant relative. His Jaffes came from the Baltic. Mine were saphardic Jews from Izmir/Smyrna.


Dear THT,
Who is the dashing and charming gentleman who writes for you three Mondays per month? I say, give that man a raise!
Warmest Regards,
Not salb918

But Sal - I've been crankin' out articles more than 3 Sudnays a month lately ;)

Speaking of Jaffees, as a MAD magazine reader in my youth, for me that name conjures Al Jaffee's cartoons, especially those great back-cover fold-overs.

Jay is the first and only Jaffe I've ever met.

But surely...Al Jaffe!?!

By the way, if any of you has any feedback for the team at THT, we're collectively reachable at mailbag@hardballtimes.com.

And now we're extra-motivated to give a snarky two-word reply to any question, comment, suggestion, or complaint that HWB sends our way!

Speaking of Jaffees, as a MAD magazine reader in my youth, for me that name conjures Al Jaffee's cartoons, especially those great back-cover fold-overs.

Word. Those were great, and the "Snappy Answers to Stupid Questions" were even better.

Jay is the first and only Jaffe I've ever met.

There was the "Gunga Din" and "The Day The Earth Stood Still" Shalom "Sam" Jaffe

I'm aware of those Jaffes, but I never met them. To me, Sam Jaffe will always be the guy from Lost Horizon.

Lost Horizon.

I've never seen the whole thing. It looks like it would look really good on the big screen.
I hope it comes to a reperetory program at a nearby movie theater soon.
The Day The Earth Stood Still was the first movie that I saw (on TV) that scared the bejeebers out of me.

al jaffee?

that sounds arab not jewish

Man
Woman
Birth
Death
Infinity

We had a Jaffe family as neighbors in Brooklyn.

There was a Jake Jaffe who worked in some kind of lab running gels or HPLCs or something when I worked as a temp for a large, well-known pharmacuetical company. I always thought that Jake Jaffe would be a great name for a serial-novel gumshoe.

I always thought that Jake Jaffe would be a great name for a serial-novel gumshoe.

That's a good one.
My US gumshoe would be the three roads before the road I used to live on: Raymond Turner Grisdale. My UK gumshoe would be the name of the urinal brand at one of our UK offices, Armitage Shanks.

I think Doug Melvin is to be congratulated for ensuring that the worst starter the Brewers have thrown out there all year is Claudio Vargas. (Unless you think Capuano is worse, which he might be.) Sheets is the only consistent A starter, but the Brewers have kept things respectable by getting a high amount of C to C minus level work instead of the 20-30 starts every year most contending teams blow on 6-7 ERA bums.

The bullpen needs more work than the rotation. Through 5 innings the Brewers are better than average in allowing runs; in innings 6-9 they're among baseball's worst. They can probably contend with close to the rotation they have now, but the bullpen performance has to be a lot better.