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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, October 11, 2007
He’s the best there is! (Actually, he’s the only one there is).....SkyKing 162!
Both Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins have earned national attention for their sparkling 20-20-20-20 seasons (20 homeruns, 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 stolen bases). Both hit leadoff for their respective teams and both scored a lot of runs. But Rollins is an MVP candidate while Granderson is still labeled as a future star. Is that fair? Is Rollins really the better hitter? Let’s take a look at how their 2007 seasons actually stack up against each other.
...As you can see, Granderson’s ability to create runs without making outs outweighs Rollins advantage in playing time. It’s like a free-throw competition where I’ve made 25 out of 50 shots and you’ve made 26 out of 60. You’ve sunk more shots, but it’s only fair that I get to shoot as many times as you do. Even if the rest of my shots are taken by someone half as good as me, I’m going to catch your total. Replacing Jimmy Rollins with a scrub would not have hurt the Phillies’ offense as much as replacing Curtis Granderson would have hurt the Tigers.
Now, a lot of the push for Rollins’ MVP candidacy is because the Phillies made the playoffs and the Tigers didn’t. But if you’re asking whether Rollins or Granderson was the more productive offensive player in 2007, the answer is Curtis Granderson.
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They certainly don't need Maybin. Might as well dump him for a LOOGY.
The main reason that J-Roll is getting an MVP push and Granderson isn't is because Rollins isn't playing in the same league as Alex Rodriguez.
EDIT: I should refresh these before posting.
I suppose that's the main reason, but Ordonez was considered AROD's main competition if the Tigers made the playoffs. I can't recall one word about Granderson as MVP, not that I was paying much attention. Will be interesting to see where he ends up in the balloting. I could easily see him coming in 5th or worse -- AROD, Ordonez, Ortiz, Posada, Martinez, Vlad are all candidates to get more votes. Guys like Thome, Lowell, Pena might (but I'd guess won't) outpoint him.
Seriously, Rollins played 162 games. Granderson played 158. Between the Phillies and Tigers, 16 players played more than 125 games, which is enough for two stints on the DL and and a bunch of days off. All but one of them had more than 20 doubles, and that was Abraham Nunez, who (and I admit to not following the Phillies) somehow barely averaged 2 plate appearances per game (defensive replacement?). I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that the vast majority of major leaguers who played at least 125 games (let alone 158) finished with 20 or more doubles.
Take triples out of the equation. How many players have ever managed twenty homers and twenty stolen bases and DIDN'T amass twenty doubles?
I'm not trying to question their achievements. They both had tremendous seasons. But throwing the "20 doubles" thing in there is really quite superfluous.
Hey, great impersonation of Prince Fielder at Wendy's!
Best Regards
John
I'm guessing it's part of the original article, but if it was a Repoz reference I wouldn't have gotten it
Read the comments in this thread again. Right there at #2, the case was made that Rollins is a deserving candidate while Granderson is not because Granderson had Alex Rodriguez to compete with.
What's amazing is that he did all of it against righthanders. Curtis was pretty close to useless against lefties.
Leaving triples in, there was a guy who missed by hitting only 19 doubles. Can't remember the name, I think it was in the 1920's.
Uh, since I just posted numbers indicating that Rollins is going up against players who were probably every bit as valuable as Alex Rodriguez was, yes.
If the case is being made that the voters are too ignorant to recognize that Pujols, Wright, and Rodriguez all had comparable seasons, I'll concede that point, but reading the article it's pretty clear that the sabermetric case for Granderson is the focus of this article, not lamenting sportswriters' ignorance.
With fielding, Granderson is way closer to ARod than Rollins is to Wright, Pujols, Utley, Chipper, or any of another handful of NL players. I'd even say Reyes was a more productive SS.
Why don't people realize Rollins isn't an MVP candidate (well, as long as you don't factor in things like team, intangibles, heart, etc?) I didn't mention park effects in my article, but that's another thing people ignore about Philadelphia.
Buck Freeman in 1899 went 25 HR, 25 3B, 19 2B, 21 SB.
Even ignoring the flukiness of one-year park factors, how did Tiger and Philly opponents do at Tiger stadium versus other ballparks? That's important, too.
But yes, Tiger Stadium has been playing just about league-average recently. Didn't they move the fences in a couple years ago?
- You're using crap stats to determine that the NL guys are comparable to A-Rod.
- You've still got A-Rod as being about a win better than any of them.
- You haven't shown Granderson is as good as Rollins.
- If we're talking who will win rather than who should win, then it's pretty obvious just from that why no one is talking about Granderson... or Hanley... or Pujols.
Three since 1900: Tommy Leach (14 doubles, 22 triples, 25 stolen bases) in 1902, Vic Saier (15, 21, 26) in 1913, and Pie Traynor (19, 19, 28) in 1923. 10 guys in the 1800s have done it. Harry Davis had only 10 doubles to go with 28 triples in 1897.
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