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Saturday, October 10, 2009

BDD: Baer: Suddenly, A-Rod Is Clutch

No wonder Special Agent Mark Benford starts drinking again! Even he didn’t see this coming…

What A-Rod’s clutchness this year (and in ‘07) shows is that the contentions that he was not clutch are patently false. Furthermore, it is yet another case that the theory of clutch holds no water. There have yet to be any studies that have shown any significant ability for a player to become clutch or not clutch by any reasonable definition of the terms.

If clutch is an ability then it should be somewhat consistent, but as the above graph shows, such is not the case. Generally, a clutch player should not be unclutch (and vice versa), especially over a long period of time and with a sufficient sample size.

To justify A-Rod’s unclutchness, one may cite examples of clutchness (such as his ‘07 and ‘09 seasons) as aberrant, or mere statistical variance. But isn’t that the case anyway? That is what we would expect of just about every Major League Baseball player. To say that a player’s clutchness can vary from year-to-year is to devalue the very concept of clutch. It is contradictory.

Perhaps A-Rod learned how to become clutch. That doesn’t seem to hold water because he was clutch in ‘07 and suddenly not clutch in ‘08, and then clutch again in ‘09. Did he learn how to be clutch in ‘07, forget it in ‘08, and re-learn it in ‘09? Once again, the sane answer seems to be just variance rather than some innate human ability that wavers in and out. Overall, there doesn’t seem to be any evidence to support any concept of clutchness or unclutchness for any player, even Alex Rodriguez.

Repoz Posted: October 10, 2009 at 09:35 AM | 16 comment(s)
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, NY Yankees

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1. sunnyday2 Posted: October 10, 2009 at 09:20 AM (#3347672)

Clutch is facing a pitcher against whom you are hitting .500 lifetime. Just ask Alexi Casilla, who against all odds is clutch against Fernando Rodney.

2. AROM Posted: October 10, 2009 at 10:10 AM (#3347707)

A-Rod didn't learn how to be clutch, he just remember that he has been postseason clutch against the Twins before. 2004 ALDS: 421/476/737.

3. bond1 Posted: October 10, 2009 at 12:12 PM (#3347792)

Both balls that A-Rod smacked yesterday were right down the heart of the plate. You couldn't have served up a better pitch either time.

4. Adam M

Posted: October 10, 2009 at 12:16 PM (#3347799)

Both balls that A-Rod smacked yesterday were right down the heart of the plate. You couldn't have served up a better pitch either time.

Isn't taking advantage of opportunities what clutch hitters do?

5. Elisabeth R�hm and Walter Haas Posted: October 10, 2009 at 12:45 PM (#3347829)

Isn't taking advantage of opportunities what clutch hitters do?

No, clutch hitters scare the opposing pitcher into making a mistake. A-Rod simply got lucky that Nathan screwed up, but he clearly hadn't struck fear into his heart.

6. Chris Dial Posted: October 10, 2009 at 01:10 PM (#3347859)

OH TEH SAMPLE SIZE!!!

7. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again Posted: October 10, 2009 at 01:23 PM (#3347869)

I don't think it's really possible to be consistently clutch (better in high pressure situations than you are normally). I do think it's possible that some people let the situation get to them and they become "unclutch". I don't think that's true about A-Rod.

8. Sleepy supports S.S. at second Posted: October 10, 2009 at 04:44 PM (#3347995)

This too shall pass.

9. Young Blasarius yonder

Posted: October 10, 2009 at 04:53 PM (#3347999)

I don't think it's really possible to be consistently clutch (better in high pressure situations than you are normally). I do think it's possible that some people let the situation get to them and they become "unclutch". I don't think that's true about A-Rod.

There was an interesting little article in the OC Register today about Izturis' seeming clutch ability. According to him (and I'm sure it's an Angels organizational thing too), pitchers pitch differently when runners are on (duh) and he (they) study video to learn each pitcher's approach. Take it for what it's worth...

10. Nick Warino Posted: October 10, 2009 at 05:17 PM (#3348014)

I believe up until Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, Rodriguez had excellent post-season stats. He crushed the Yankees as a Mariner in 2000, crushed the Twins in the 2004 ALDS, and was killing the Red Sox in the first 3 games.

I've always been in-between the "Arod is uncluch" and "Arod is completely normal" debate. I've never felt that Rodriguez was inherently a choker and doomed forever to be so. I think Alex Rodriguez took a disproportionate amount of heat for the Yankees' collapse against the Red Sox in 2004, even though Jeter was far worse that series, Sheffield disappeared and so on. I feel that Arod's random, unfortunately timed-slump in 2004 got into his head a bit in the playoffs in 2005 and 2006 because that was the Question everyone was asking: "Can he come through when it REALLY counts, like Jeter?" To me, once in the playoffs in 2005 and 2006, Rodriguez visiblly looked tight at the plate, trying to get the monkey off his back (I'm guessing Torre sensed this by batting his #8).

In general, I think the clutch/unclutch thing is ########, but during that period, there was a bit of a perfect storm: Arod comes off as mentally uncomfortable in general (compared to most superstars), he has all the pressure of his record-contract, he's on the Yankees (more pressure), his rivalry with NY/media-darling Jeter (more pressure), and the recent unprecedented collapse against the Red Sox that he took the blame for (yet more pressure). Again, maybe Arod was just perfectly fine in the playoffs those years and it was just SSS variation, but I would not be surprised if he was negatively effected by unprecedented pressure to produce.

This was combined with the selective memory of his critics led to the conclusion that he was unclutch, forever and always. But again, he had some big playoffs moments before (Against the Yankees, Twins, and Red Sox) and had some big hits for the Yankees during this period. If my theory is correct, he may have got over it just enough and the pressure might have been lessened just enough (Arod seems less like the central focus of the Yankees this year), where he's no longer as tight. The result is the huge homerun off of Nathan, which should dispel the unclutch criticism forever...unless he collapses against the Red Sox in the ALCS.

As a Red Sox fan who hates Arod, I really, really enjoyed the Arod-the-Choker storyline and I already miss it dearly.

11. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 12, 2009 at 06:27 PM (#3350267)

No, clutch hitters scare the opposing pitcher into making a mistake. A-Rod simply got lucky that Nathan screwed up, but he clearly hadn't struck fear into his heart.

On that note, why hasn't some team signed up Count Dracula or the Wolf Man?

12. McCoy Posted: October 12, 2009 at 06:39 PM (#3350276)

The Pirates tried but they screwed it up and got Count Chocula instead.

13. McCoy Posted: October 12, 2009 at 06:41 PM (#3350278)

edit

14. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 12, 2009 at 06:42 PM (#3350279)

Is Fruit Brute stuck in the Buc's minor league system then?

15. Harveys Wallbangers

Posted: October 12, 2009 at 06:46 PM (#3350283)

Something was going on in that at bat because Nathan was clearly trying to get Alex to chase. When he didn't it was a hope and pray fastball followed by shock and awe.

16. Joshua Gibsons Ruth (Voxter) Posted: October 12, 2009 at 06:50 PM (#3350288)

All I know about Wolf Man is that he's got nards. That's not nearly enough to qualify someone for the major leagues.

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Saturday, October 10, 2009

BDD: Baer: Suddenly, A-Rod Is Clutch

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