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Sunday, January 27, 2008

Bedard Headed to M’s

Looks like it’s finally done, details to follow, ,physicals, yada, yada ....

And more at Baseball Musings.

Brian Posted: January 27, 2008 at 09:35 PM | 89 comment(s)
  Related News: BaltimoreSeattle

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   1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:15 PM (#2677287)
Any word on who else is involved besides Adam Jones?
   2. ddp Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:17 PM (#2677288)
Hello Adam Jones.
   3. Lassus Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:22 PM (#2677292)
I know it wasn't even a rumor, but I was hoping this guy would come to the Mets. Surly strikeout pitcher? Yum

That's a pretty good 1-2 punch there, now, and Sherrill and Putz in the pen? Not bad. Hmmm.... implication that Sherill might be included. Is Jones REALLY all that? I admit knowing nothing about him.

I wonder if this trade will lower the price on Santana?
   4. ddp Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:23 PM (#2677293)
Sherrill has been rumored to be a part of the deal for a while.
   5. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:24 PM (#2677294)
Any word on who else is involved besides Adam Jones?


According to someone on the Orioles' list: Jones, Clement, Chris Tillman, and another prospect.

EDIT: not Sherrill.

-- MWE
   6. Tike Redman's Shattered Dreams (shayborg) Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:25 PM (#2677297)
Sweet, I now get to watch Bedard and King Felix pitch (although I don't care at all about the Mariners).
   7. Lassus Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:36 PM (#2677306)
Whoa, the Mariners fans on that site are really split. I wonder how it's being read over at the USS Mariner.

I'd like to compare this Jones kid against Milledge for the next 5 years and see who we got for him.
   8. 1k5v3L Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:36 PM (#2677307)
Thank god Bedard is not coming to the NL. Now if Santana could somehow remain with the Twins...
   9. Sean McNally Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:40 PM (#2677311)
I realize the Titans were desperate to get rid of Jones, but honestly, what are they going to do with Bedard? Is the Vince Young era over already?

Oh, oops... but c'mon given the current state of the O's, its not out of the question that they'd try to pick up a shutdown corner with their last legit trade chip.
   10. Repoz Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:40 PM (#2677312)
O's saying no deal...yet.

Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said tonight that the club has not agreed to trade ace pitcher Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners for a package headed by young center fielder Adam Jones, despite reports that a deal is done.

"We do not have an agreement with the Mariners," MacPhail said.


Link
   11. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:40 PM (#2677313)
Jones and Markakis together in the lineup looks like a decent start for the O's to having a decent team again. Now they just need the rest of a team.

I'd think it would possibly increase the price of Johan as Bedard seemed like a fallback option if a team didn't acquire Santana. And Jones, Clement, Tillman and another prospect is a pretty stiff price to pay for an inferior pitcher (although one who the team controls longer).
   12. BeanoCook Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:44 PM (#2677315)
Jones, Clement, Tillman and another prospect = Bedard


What will Johan yield? Will it even be as good a haul? I bet not, considering the contract.
   13. Pete Toms Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:49 PM (#2677316)
Surprising that the O's want Clement when they already have Wieters?
   14. David Cameron Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:53 PM (#2677318)
Clement's probably not part of the deal. The M's have been balking at including either Morrow or Clement with Jones. It's almost certainly Jones, one of Sherrill/O'Flaherty/Rowland-Smith, and two of Triunfel/Tillman/Butler/Saunders/Halman/Ramirez.

In terms of talent given up, this will rival the Colon to the Expos deal.
   15. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: January 27, 2008 at 10:54 PM (#2677319)
Jones and Clement?!? For how many years of Bedard?

Are we still assuming Bedard will sign with the Blue Jays as soon as possible? Or does Seattle have enough Canadianish qualities to make it acceptable?

Surprising that the O's want Clement when they already have Wieters?

It seems to me that about 10% of catching prospects who make the majors are still catchers by the time they reach the majors. Of course this might be biased by my experience watching the Pirates lo these many years.
   16. Bicycle RepairMan Posted: January 27, 2008 at 11:05 PM (#2677323)
I think if the O's get Jones/Clement/Tillman, its a good haul for them, but not unfairly big for the Ms
   17. AROM Posted: January 27, 2008 at 11:10 PM (#2677325)
Jones, Clement, Tillman and another prospect = Bedard


I would suspect that raises the price of Santana. I don't know about Tillman but Jones + Clement is better than anything rumored in the Santana talks. Bedard gives you two years, but Santana is a better pitcher.

Markakis-Jones-Scott is a pretty good outfield.
   18. Sparkles Peterson Posted: January 27, 2008 at 11:12 PM (#2677327)
Can someone offer any insight into what happened with Jones last year? He wasn't by any means ready to be written off as a prospect, but he sure hadn't put in anything close to the kind of performance he had in '07. Surely the K/BB ratio has to give you pause as to whether he's going to be able to repeat it.
   19. Pete Toms Posted: January 27, 2008 at 11:15 PM (#2677329)
Does this mean that MacPhail has persuaded Angelos that it's time to tear it down and start over? In other words, is the Roberts to Cubs deal back on?
   20. jyjjy Posted: January 27, 2008 at 11:24 PM (#2677331)
I hope this deal is legit. Getting Bedard out of the AL East and into Safeco should help my keeper team nicely.
   21. Lassus Posted: January 27, 2008 at 11:34 PM (#2677334)
Speaking of Santana, maybe one of the important people here could put this up:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3217470

Honestly, the Twins keeping Santana for at least a year of these two guys - and the rest of that fun rotation, Boof! Baker! - tormenting the entire AL would be great to watch.
   22. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: January 27, 2008 at 11:47 PM (#2677337)
No it wouldn't! :)
   23. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: January 27, 2008 at 11:51 PM (#2677342)
It occurs to me that it would be just like Angelos to pull out of a trade because word of it leaked out.
   24. Darren Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:08 AM (#2677349)
Why was Jones moved off SS again? Putting him back there would make some sense if he can really play there.

If Bedard is healthy, this seems reasonably fair. A great prospect, a good low-minors pitcher and therefore lottery ticket, and a loogy for a #1 starter? That sounds about right and maybe the slightest bit cheap for Bedard. (this is all assuming its Jones/Tillman/Sherrill.)
   25. IMFinksPa Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:24 AM (#2677359)
Jones was moved off shortstop because he was lousy there (BJ Uptonesque). USSMariner is largely opposed to the deal, largely along the lines of those who didn't like the Swisher deal, because the team is unlikely to compete this year and resigning Bedard is far from certain. Moreover, many believe that giving up 6 cost controlled years of a plus defensive outfielder with Jones' potential is too steep a price to pay for a pitcher with Bedard's health record who is only controlled for 2 years and at a not insignificant cost.
   26. fear and loathing in birdlives Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:39 AM (#2677370)
Surprising that the O's want Clement when they already have Wieters?

Get the best talent now, sort out the positions later. If Clement and Wieters both pan out, trade one of them.
   27. DKDC Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:42 AM (#2677371)
Per Churchill, this is 99% done:

I’m being told by three different sources that the trade is as close to being done as it can get without an actual deal. May just be a matter of dotting some i’s and crossing some t’s.

What I am getting is that it’s Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler and Kameron Mickolio going to Baltimore.


I still don't get the Sherrill fascination, unless they think they can flip him for a prospect elsewhere.

I expect MacPhail to have that one wrapped up by February....2010.
   28. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 12:55 AM (#2677377)
So, would you rather have the package the M's are sending to the O's, or the package the D's sent to the A's?

I know M's fans love their prospects, but I don't think Jones, Tillman, Sherrill, Burler and Mickolio is a better package than Eveland, Gonzalez, Anderson, Carter, Cunningham and Smith. IOW, Beane did pretty well in the Haren trade.

Bedard is a higher upside pitcher than Haren, granted, but he also has the higher injury risk, and I estimate the M's will pay him for 2 years something ~ $25m, which will be a lot more the Dbacks will pay Haren for 3 years (~$16m).
   29. DKDC Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:01 AM (#2677381)
I think the Haren package is clearly better.

But I also think that Haren had more trade value given Bedard's injury history and the extra year Haren is under control.

On the other hand, Bedard's upside probably makes more sense for a team like the Mariners, who need Bedard to repeat 2007 to have any chance of catching the Angels.
   30. Beauregard Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:01 AM (#2677382)
From the article:

"I received a call from Seattle saying that is no more playing for me and I can't do anything about that," Jones said. "I leave tomorrow morning...It sucks. I want to play. This is Game 4 of the finals and I really want to be there for my team, but it's something that all the guys understand. I really want to play, but I can't."

On the actual deal itself: "(Bill Bavasi) called me yesterday and told me the news. I've got to go to Baltimore tomorrow morning and handle things there. I'm the centerpiece of the deal on the Mariners side. It's an honor to get traded for such a highly talented pitcher as Bedard is. He's one of the best. Last year he finished up as arguably one of the top candidates for the Cy Young. He's that good, so for me it's an honor. You know, I like Seattle, but if I am in Baltimore, as I think now I am, I'm going to embrace it and have the best time of my life in Major League Baseball."


What a classy statement from Jones. I will root for this guy.
   31. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:07 AM (#2677385)
I don't care much when players say stupid things, but when they say smart things, I'm glad of it. And Baltimore is a very nice city.
   32. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:12 AM (#2677392)
the Mariners, who need Bedard to repeat 2007 to have any chance of catching the Angels.
That chance will go out the window the moment they sign Gonzo to play left field.
   33. David Nieporent Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:13 AM (#2677393)
I still don't get the Sherrill fascination, unless they think they can flip him for a prospect elsewhere.
Reportedly, this is all Trembley. You saw the way he used his bullpen last year. He's yet another post-LaRussa manager who thinks his job is to shuffle as many relievers into and out of games as possible to make himself look busy. Sherrill gives him yet another "proven" [sic] arm out of the pen.
   34. fear and loathing in birdlives Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:30 AM (#2677407)
Reportedly, this is all Trembley.

Another reason to dislike Trembley.
   35. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:32 AM (#2677408)
Jon Heyman's take
Sources told SI.com that Jones (.314 with 25 homers at Triple-A Tacoma), reliever George Sherrill (2-0, 2.36 with Seattle), a strikeout artist who could bolster Baltimore's injury-ravaged bullpen, and minor-league pitcher Chris Tillman (6-7, 5.26 at Class-A High Desert), are among players who have been prominently mentioned in trade talks. Catcher Jeff Clement (.275 with 20 homers also at Tacoma) was discussed at one point, but it's believed the Mariners will hold onto him.

If the Orioles do complete the Bedard trade, word is they would likely then send All-Star second baseman Brian Roberts (.290, 12 HR, 57 RBIs, 50 SBs) to the Chicago Cubs for prospects, possibly outfielder Felix Pie and pitcher Sean Gallagher. Pie batted .362 with nine home runs and 43 RBIs at Triple-A Iowa but hit just .215 in 177 at-bats with the Cubs in 2007.

However, the Roberts deal appears to be waiting on completion of the Bedard deal.
   36. Master of Karate and Friendship (Kyle C) Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:50 AM (#2677411)
That would be a pretty good haul for Roberts, if true. I assume Jones would play CF and Pie LF then?
   37. Sweet Posted: January 28, 2008 at 01:54 AM (#2677415)
Oh good Lord if the Cubs trade Pie for Roberts I will throw a whole stack of chairs.
   38. David Nieporent Posted: January 28, 2008 at 02:00 AM (#2677416)
As I wrote on the Orioles mailing list in regards to Heyman's "take," all it shows is why Heyman is one of the crappier reporters out there. That "take" is completely devoid of information, showing he knows nothing more than every one of us who reads the newspaper:

* He says that "sources" told him that Jones/Sherrill/Tillman "are among players who have been prominently mentioned." Well, no ####. "Sources" told me that, too. We really don't care who has been "mentioned"; we care about who has been traded.

* And then he tells us that the Orioles would "likely" trade Roberts, "possibly" for Pie/Gallagher. Again, more "no ####." He's not telling us anything he knows; he's not telling us anything we don't know.
   39. billyshears Posted: January 28, 2008 at 02:01 AM (#2677417)
If the Orioles do complete the Bedard trade, word is they would likely then send All-Star second baseman Brian Roberts (.290, 12 HR, 57 RBIs, 50 SBs) to the Chicago Cubs for prospects, possibly outfielder Felix Pie and pitcher Sean Gallagher.


If the standards of sports journalism were not already ridiculously low, it would be appalling that a "journalist" with a major platform wrote that sentence. Unfortunately, Heyman is a hack, so it's impossible to know exactly what he is trying to say. Does Heyman have any information the Pie and Gallagher would be included in a deal for Roberts? Or are Pie and Gallagher just the only two Cubs' prospects that Heyman can name and thus could "possibly" be included in the deal? I'm guessing its the latter, but it could possibly be the former.
   40. Russlan is an overhyped Met BTFer Posted: January 28, 2008 at 02:02 AM (#2677418)
I am pretty annoyed by this trade. You're telling me that the Mets couldn't have trumped this deal with Milledge and Gomez and some combo of Pelfrey/Humber/Guerra?

Bedard's my Cy Young pick for 2008.
   41. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 02:10 AM (#2677420)
Man, where's the love for poor Jon Heyman? The guy's a proud card carrying member of the BAWAA
   42. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 02:11 AM (#2677422)
You're telling me that the Mets couldn't have trumped this deal with Milledge and Gomez and some combo of Pelfrey/Humber/Guerra?
Bedard doesn't have the Latino factor going for him.
   43. rfloh Posted: January 28, 2008 at 02:27 AM (#2677430)
Can someone offer any insight into what happened with Jones last year? He wasn't by any means ready to be written off as a prospect, but he sure hadn't put in anything close to the kind of performance he had in '07. Surely the K/BB ratio has to give you pause as to whether he's going to be able to repeat it.


Look at his age. In 2007 he was 21 at AAA. He has always been young for his levels, due to being rushed by the Mariners.

Also, his 2006 829 OPS in AAA at age 20 was worth a 281 EQA from BPro. League average OPS in the PCL in 2006 was 757.

He is also reputedly great defensively in CF.
   44. The Milton Bradley Effect (Voxter) Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:00 AM (#2677448)
Dear Buzzie Bavasi's Kid,

#### you.

Love,

Me
   45. Jason Kendall's #6,530,420,771 fan (AS) Posted: January 28, 2008 at 06:32 AM (#2677461)
because the team is unlikely to compete this year

I don't get this sentiment. Yes, the team outperformed expectations last year, but they were in the playoff hunt most of the year and won eighty-eight games, tied for fifth in the league. Moreover, of the teams ahead of them, the Yankees are old and likely to decline and the Angels are hardly the certainty everyone here seems to make them out to be -- Vlad has got to be considered a serious injury/decline risk with the nagging stuff he seems to have and his go-for-broke style, the team has a serious shortage of power outside of him, and the pitching staff ... okay, the pitching staff is legitimately excellent and can be expected to be again. Still, pitchers are pitchers, and they get hurt.

Seattle also has huge upside in the possibility of King Felix starting to dominate, and they got basically nothing out of their first and second baseman last year. One has to expect some improvement there. Maybe Sexson is falling off a cliff and getting yanked early, or maybe he isn't and he'll recover to post a better year. Jose Lopez is just 23 and will likely improve on last year's numbers. It's not like they had a miracle convergence which allowed them to win as many as 88 games. Especially with the A's rebuilding and the Rangers perpetually doing so, they could easily win 93 or so games and slip into at least the wild card. Certainly it seems like pre-Bedard they are a true talent 85-90 win team, and if you figure Bedard is worth five or so games, that's a huge playoff difference.
   46. Justin Zeth Posted: January 28, 2008 at 07:18 AM (#2677462)
Seattle COULD win enough to give the Angels a run on it, but I wouldn't bet a lot of money on it happening. Even after this trade, the Angels are better.

Given Bedard's spotty health history, I hope the Mariners really did their due diligence in inspecting Bedard's medical records. I'd be inclined to accept trading Bedard just for Jones and a couple B/C prospects, and I like the Orioles' haul here. That's largely because I'm very bullish on Adam Jones, though, and I expect the Mariners are going to regret trading him.
   47. Mattbert Posted: January 28, 2008 at 07:59 AM (#2677466)
I think Seattle has a better chance of winning the AL West than they do of taking the Wild Card. To my eye, they've made themselves good enough to give Anaheim a tough fight. Perhaps the Ms aren't quite strong enough to beat out the Angels if both teams are at full strength and play up to their potential, but if the Angels falter even a little bit then Seattle will be right there within easy striking distance of the division crown.

For them to take the Wild Card, they have to be better than (most likely) at least two of the following clubs: Indians, Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees. All four of those teams are going to be just as tough to beat out as the Angels, some probably more so.

I saw Jones play a few times last summer, and he looks like an exciting player. He's a tough chip to lose, and the loss is harder to take if you don't believe the Ms will even come close to the playoffs by virtue of adding Bedard. If he can contribute a full season's worth of starts, though, I think Bedard puts them closer to stealing a division win from Anaheim than Jones would have. Seattle's playoff chances are realistic enough that it's by no means foolhardy for them to take a shot at it. If all they wanted was certainty, well they certainly won't compete if they don't try.
   48. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: January 28, 2008 at 08:29 AM (#2677471)
I'm with the USSMariner guys on this one, I don't think this trade does enough for Seattle. They should get some bounce back from Sexson and maybe from second base (although if let Spring Training convince them into playing Cairo over Lopez that's not going to happen.)

But they're still counting on Raul Ibanez to maintain his Fountain of Youth act at age 36, at least with the stick, since a butcher defensively. And now they'll probably end up with someone of the Luis Gonzalez/Reggie Sanders type in right field who will also be a butcher defensively and probably struggled to replicate what Jose Guillen brought with the stick.

Moreover, this is still a team that outperformed its Pythag by a huge margin last year. If you believe that the base components of the team (Felix, the bullpen, whatever) make that a likely possibility again, then it's a fine trade.

But if you think (as I do) this was a essentially a .500 team that just added a #1 starter while weakening their defense, offense and bullpen, well, that's not a team likely to contend.
   49. Lassus Posted: January 28, 2008 at 08:30 AM (#2677472)
Bedard doesn't have the Latino factor going for him.

Oh. My. God Levski some new material already, please.
   50. retro-shiite Posted: January 28, 2008 at 08:37 AM (#2677473)
Oh good Lord if the Cubs trade Pie for Roberts I will throw a whole stack of chairs.

No shite. Leaving aside the talent/upside exchanged, it makes no sense at all for a team like the Cubs, who're obviously trying to win now. Who the hell plays CF if Pie leaves? And why do this for a marginal upgrade over DeRosa? Granted, having DeRosa as a supersub greatly improves the bench, but you'll have opened up a hole in CF. Big thumbs down to that rumor.
   51. retro-shiite Posted: January 28, 2008 at 08:42 AM (#2677474)
OK--considering the source of the Pie rumor, I'm breathing normally again. Time for some coffee....

I still fear Hendry'll grossly overpay for Roberts, since Roberts appears to be Hendry's white whale of the offseason. (Fukudome doesn't count. By "white whale" I mean a player Hendry targets and seems bound and determined to get for no particular reason, even though he's either not especially good, isn't a particularly good fit for the Cubs, or both. Floyd was that guy last year, Pierre the year before. Roberts is a lot more valuable than those two, of course, but he's not the kind of guy I'd sell the farm for, especially since the Cubs don't exactly have a yawning chasm at second base.)
   52. Mattbert Posted: January 28, 2008 at 09:03 AM (#2677475)
You make some persuasive arguments, RB. If the Mariners are able to sign Bedard to a reasonable extension, would that alter your impression of the deal?

Unrelated query: Was it a given that Ichiro was going to remain in CF for 2008 or were they going to move him back over to RF and let Jones take over in center?
   53. Justin Zeth Posted: January 28, 2008 at 10:07 AM (#2677496)
That's the thing about Jones that makes me dislike this trade from the Mariners' perspective. His glove, especially in Safeco, is valuable in and of itself, and if he he hits at even a league average rate for a CF (.270/.330/.410 or something), he's worth probably 2-3 wins over whoever the Mariners can run out there in his place. Bedard, if reasonably healthy, will be worth 5 (and it's far from guaranteed that Bedard will be healthy). Given that Jones' future is much more valuable than Bedard's, I think that's giving up too much for the near-term improvement.
   54. DKDC Posted: January 28, 2008 at 10:10 AM (#2677499)
What a classy statement from Jones.

He should've saved some class for the other Adam Jones.
   55. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 10:12 AM (#2677501)
The M's could patch the gaps in RF/LF by signing Wilkerson to play RF and giving LF to Balentien... or worst case scenario, bringing in someone like Gonzo to platoon w/ Balentien in LF... even though they'd be better off with someone like Hinske instead. Alternatively, if Bavazi were smart, he'd try to acquire Matt Murton from the Cubs, but that's a big if...
   56. DKDC Posted: January 28, 2008 at 10:18 AM (#2677506)
It seems like a no-brainer to expand this trade to include Luke Scott.

Scott should be as good or better then Jones for 2008, and he's a little old for a rebuilding project.

Scott's also not eligible for free agency for 5 years.
   57. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 10:22 AM (#2677511)
56: you're assuming Bavasi has any idea who Luke Scott is
   58. kevin Posted: January 28, 2008 at 10:25 AM (#2677512)
Given that Jones' future is much more valuable than Bedard's, I think that's giving up too much for the near-term improvement.


?????

Why do you say that? Bedard is a terrific starter. He'll win 50 games for the M's over the next 3 years.
   59. JPWF13 Posted: January 28, 2008 at 10:36 AM (#2677524)
He'll win 50 games for the M's over the next 3 years.


What makes you think he'll play 3 years for the M's?
   60. a bebop a rebop Posted: January 28, 2008 at 11:15 AM (#2677549)
He'll win 50 games for the M's over the next 3 years.


Probably only gon' be there for two.
   61. kevin Posted: January 28, 2008 at 11:16 AM (#2677553)
I'm guessing the M's won't trade for him unless they think they can keep him longterm.
   62. retro-shiite Posted: January 28, 2008 at 11:17 AM (#2677556)
I hope Bedard goes to the Ms, to eliminate the temptation for Hendry to trade Rich Hill and others for him. (Somebody in a previous thread noted the striking similarity between Hill's numbers and Bedard's last year. [Yes, Hill did it in the NL, but still.]) And Hill's health history is better. I think Hill's close to even money to outpitch Bedard over the next 3 years.
   63. AROM Posted: January 28, 2008 at 11:23 AM (#2677561)
I know M's fans love their prospects, but I don't think Jones, Tillman, Sherrill, Burler and Mickolio is a better package than Eveland, Gonzalez, Anderson, Carter, Cunningham and Smith. IOW, Beane did pretty well in the Haren trade.


A's got more good prospects, but Jones should easily be the best player involved in either trade. Facing Bedard won't be fun, but I'm glad the Angels won't have to worry about facing Jones for 6 years.
   64. retro-shiite Posted: January 28, 2008 at 11:24 AM (#2677563)
I misspoke--Hill's numbers last year were almost identical to Bedard's in '06 (when they were the same age); Bedard's ERA+ was obviously a lot better last year. But Hill's capable of putting up similar numbers; I'd expect his K/9 rate to increase, for one thing, to a level around where Bedard's was last year. Lest you doubt his ability to do this, check out his AAA numbers. Guy was striking out about 14 per 9 in a hitter's league.

Point being--Hill under club control for another 5 (?) years + prospects (which is what was rumored) is obviously worth a hell of a lot more than 2 years of Erik Bedard. (And it's hardly unfathomable that the next 2 years of Rich Hill alone will be worth more than the next 2 years of Erik Bedard.)
   65. DKDC Posted: January 28, 2008 at 11:29 AM (#2677566)
Somebody in a previous thread noted the striking similarity between Hill's numbers and Bedard's last year.

There is nothing remotely similar about Bedard and Hill's numbers last year.

Against non-pitchers:

Bedard 10.93 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, 7.04 H/9
Hill 8.00 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, 1.38 HR/9, 8.35 H/9

Hill's career through 2007 is similar to Bedard's career through 2006, but it's unlikely that Hill will take the huge step forward that Bedard did last year.

Edit: I see you revised your point, but I still don't see it as very likely that Hill will be a better pitcher than Bedard any time soon.

If I were the Cubs, I probably wouldn't swap Hill-for-Bedard either, for the other reasons you mentioned, but I can see why a contending team would go for it.
   66. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 11:30 AM (#2677568)
DKDC, but do you think Bedard will ever again match his 2007 season?
   67. DKDC Posted: January 28, 2008 at 11:34 AM (#2677572)
DKDC, but do you think Bedard will ever again match his 2007 season?

No, but even if he regresses halfway to his pre-2007 self, he's comfortably a better pitcher than Hill.
   68. retro-shiite Posted: January 28, 2008 at 11:44 AM (#2677577)
There is nothing remotely similar about Bedard and Hill's numbers last year.

See #64; I misspoke. There is considerable similarity in their numbers through the same age.

No, but even if he regresses halfway to his pre-2007 self, he's comfortably a better pitcher than Hill.

Sure, if you assume that "his pre-2007 self" is comprised solely of his 2006 season, and you assume Hill doesn't improve at all.
   69. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: January 28, 2008 at 11:46 AM (#2677580)
I dunno, Bedard's peripherals were so outstanding last year...it wasn't like he got blessed by the good luck fairy. He was a downright dominant pitcher. Take a look at his ZiPS optimistic line...in Safeco, and not facing NY and Boston all the time like he did in the East, I think he could definitely put up a 2.50 ERA next year.
   70. retro-shiite Posted: January 28, 2008 at 11:47 AM (#2677581)
Heh. I see your EDIT regarding my EDIT, and raise you another EDIT. :)

If I were the Cubs, I probably wouldn't swap Hill-for-Bedard either, for the other reasons you mentioned, but I can see why a contending team would go for it.

Well, the Cubs *are* a contending team, and I don't even think it'd be a great trade for the present (especially since the O's are likely to want more than just Hill). They can trade Hill for Bedard and still be stuck with Jon Lieber and Jason Marquis at the back of the rotation, and I just don't think the difference between Hill and Bedard *right now* justifies the deal, given the context, and certainly doesn't long term.
   71. DKDC Posted: January 28, 2008 at 11:59 AM (#2677587)
Take a look at his ZiPS optimistic line...in Safeco, and not facing NY and Boston all the time like he did in the East, I think he could definitely put up a 2.50 ERA next year.

If he hits that optimistic line in Safeco, his ERA might start with a 1. Scary stuff.

Well, the Cubs *are* a contending team, and I don't even think it'd be a great trade for the present (especially since the O's are likely to want more than just Hill). They can trade Hill for Bedard and still be stuck with Jon Lieber and Jason Marquis at the back of the rotation, and I just don't think the difference between Hill and Bedard *right now* justifies the deal, given the context, and certainly doesn't long term.

I don't really disagree with any of this.

Swapping Hill+minor leaguers for Bedard almost certainly makes the Cubs better off for 2008 and 2009, but it hurts them down the road.

For a team where virtually the entire lineup is over 30, I could understand why Hendry would make the move.
   72. 1k5v3L Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:15 PM (#2677844)
Sounds like Bavasi and I think alike... and I don't like the thought of that...

OmarGitRDone! (1k5v3L) Posted: January 28, 2008 at 09:12 AM (#2677501)

The M's could patch the gaps in RF/LF by signing Wilkerson to play RF and giving LF to Balentien... or worst case scenario, bringing in someone like Gonzo to platoon w/ Balentien in LF... even though they'd be better off with someone like Hinske instead. Alternatively, if Bavazi were smart, he'd try to acquire Matt Murton from the Cubs, but that's a big if...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/01/wilkerson-signs.html

Wilkerson Signs With Mariners?
Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times is being told that "the Mariners already have a one-year deal with free-agent Brad Wilkerson in their back pocket for the moment a Bedard trade is finalized." Wilkerson will pass on a one-year, $2MM plus incentives offer to be a Red Sox backup. This all gels with MLBTR's report from January 24th.

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick and Jayson Stark believe Luis Gonzalez could be another option for the Ms. Gonzalez recently scoffed at a $2MM Marlins offer. Gonzo made $7.35MM in '07.
   73. Snowboy Posted: January 28, 2008 at 04:20 PM (#2677846)
Ms. Gonzalez, I like it.
   74. Calvin Schiraldi Posted: January 28, 2008 at 06:23 PM (#2677942)
For a team where virtually the entire lineup is over 30, I could understand why Hendry would make the move.


You're right, but the Cubs aren't as 'old' as I thought they were.

C - Soto 25
1b - Lee 32
2b - DeRosa 32
ss - Theriot 28
3b - Ramirez 29
lf - Soriano 32
cf - Pie 22
rf - Fukudome 30

Average - 29.5
   75. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 28, 2008 at 06:42 PM (#2677962)
Despite the fact that it would weaken the Cubs long-term outlook, I too am hopeful that Pie is not traded to the Orioles for Brian Roberts at this time.

That would preclude the lad getting his obligatory 111 at bats, hitting .140, getting sent down, has his effort questioned, and is THEN traded along with Rich Hill to the Orioles for Brian Roberts.

C'mon, retro. It is the lad's destiny.

(Awww, just funnin'. I can't imagine Lou pulling a Dusty. Right? I mean, RIGHT?)
   76. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: January 28, 2008 at 07:56 PM (#2678016)
Dear Mr. Angelos:

Screw this up and I'm a Nats fan.

Sincerely,

GTWMA


P.S. I like this Acta fellow. Dump Trembley, too, and get him.
   77. David Nieporent Posted: January 28, 2008 at 09:13 PM (#2678079)
Dear Mr. GWTMA:

See you in Washington.

Signed,

P. Angelos.

P.S. Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out. If I cared about fans, I wouldn't be here. All I care about is MASN.
   78. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: January 28, 2008 at 09:41 PM (#2678109)
Dear Peter:

Are you the biggest idiot ever?

Sincerely,

GTWMA
   79. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: January 28, 2008 at 09:49 PM (#2678115)
Aw, man...Angelos finally heard the news about Adam Jones's exploits under his "Pacman" alias.
   80. David Nieporent Posted: January 28, 2008 at 10:13 PM (#2678132)
Dear Mr. GTWMA:

No. You keep giving me your money.

Signed,

P. Angelos
   81. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 28, 2008 at 10:29 PM (#2678144)
Aw, man...Angelos finally heard the news about Adam Jones's exploits under his "Pacman" alias.

Dear Bill Bavasi,

I was going to go through with the trade, but then I heard about Adam Jones "Pacman" alias. Kids today spend all their nickels at the electronic gaming pavilions playing "Pacman" and that confounded game where the rectangles volley a dot at each other. That is not the Oriole way.

Best,
Peter
   82. Justin Zeth Posted: January 28, 2008 at 10:39 PM (#2678153)
####### right paddle.
   83. Esoteric roots for the two worst teams in baseball Posted: January 29, 2008 at 01:52 AM (#2678261)
This is just so hilarious. Who here ACTUALLY thought there would be a last-minute "Peter Angelos Special" on this deal? I'll admit that I didn't. I should've known better, but I really didn't.

Welcome to rooting for the Nats, GWTMA! We're a fun team heading in the right direction.
   84. retro-shiite Posted: January 29, 2008 at 02:04 AM (#2678265)
C'mon, retro. It is the lad's destiny.

Well, you've got a point there. The pattern of Cub outfielders crapping out before being shipped to Baltimore needs to continue. I'm just disappointed they couldn't work a deal for Jones last year.
   85. retro-shiite Posted: January 29, 2008 at 02:11 AM (#2678266)
(Awww, just funnin'. I can't imagine Lou pulling a Dusty. Right? I mean, RIGHT?)

Probably not. Seriously--other than moving Soriano to center (where he'd be OK, IMHO, but which isn't going to happen), what options for CF do the Cubs have other than Pie? They don't even have Pagan as a half-assed stopgap anymore.

Suppose they could put Fukudome there, but that'd require getting an outfield bat. And by that, I do not mean trading Pie for Roberts, then putting Roberts at second and DeRosa in right.
   86. retro-shiite Posted: January 29, 2008 at 02:12 AM (#2678267)
And no, I'm not sure where Murton fits in here. Probably in a Roberts trade.
   87. David Nieporent Posted: January 29, 2008 at 04:39 AM (#2678277)
Probably not. Seriously--other than moving Soriano to center (where he'd be OK, IMHO, but which isn't going to happen), what options for CF do the Cubs have other than Pie? They don't even have Pagan as a half-assed stopgap anymore.
Corey Patterson is a free agent...
   88. Justin Zeth Posted: January 29, 2008 at 07:46 AM (#2678287)
I don't think Marquis Grissom's committed himself to anybody's camp yet.
   89. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: January 29, 2008 at 07:48 AM (#2678289)
Kenny Lofton is on the phone.
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