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That's a pretty good 1-2 punch there, now, and Sherrill and Putz in the pen? Not bad. Hmmm.... implication that Sherill might be included. Is Jones REALLY all that? I admit knowing nothing about him.
I wonder if this trade will lower the price on Santana?
According to someone on the Orioles' list: Jones, Clement, Chris Tillman, and another prospect.
EDIT: not Sherrill.
-- MWE
I'd like to compare this Jones kid against Milledge for the next 5 years and see who we got for him.
Oh, oops... but c'mon given the current state of the O's, its not out of the question that they'd try to pick up a shutdown corner with their last legit trade chip.
Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said tonight that the club has not agreed to trade ace pitcher Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners for a package headed by young center fielder Adam Jones, despite reports that a deal is done.
"We do not have an agreement with the Mariners," MacPhail said.
Link
I'd think it would possibly increase the price of Johan as Bedard seemed like a fallback option if a team didn't acquire Santana. And Jones, Clement, Tillman and another prospect is a pretty stiff price to pay for an inferior pitcher (although one who the team controls longer).
What will Johan yield? Will it even be as good a haul? I bet not, considering the contract.
In terms of talent given up, this will rival the Colon to the Expos deal.
Are we still assuming Bedard will sign with the Blue Jays as soon as possible? Or does Seattle have enough Canadianish qualities to make it acceptable?
Surprising that the O's want Clement when they already have Wieters?
It seems to me that about 10% of catching prospects who make the majors are still catchers by the time they reach the majors. Of course this might be biased by my experience watching the Pirates lo these many years.
I would suspect that raises the price of Santana. I don't know about Tillman but Jones + Clement is better than anything rumored in the Santana talks. Bedard gives you two years, but Santana is a better pitcher.
Markakis-Jones-Scott is a pretty good outfield.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3217470
Honestly, the Twins keeping Santana for at least a year of these two guys - and the rest of that fun rotation, Boof! Baker! - tormenting the entire AL would be great to watch.
If Bedard is healthy, this seems reasonably fair. A great prospect, a good low-minors pitcher and therefore lottery ticket, and a loogy for a #1 starter? That sounds about right and maybe the slightest bit cheap for Bedard. (this is all assuming its Jones/Tillman/Sherrill.)
Get the best talent now, sort out the positions later. If Clement and Wieters both pan out, trade one of them.
I still don't get the Sherrill fascination, unless they think they can flip him for a prospect elsewhere.
I expect MacPhail to have that one wrapped up by February....2010.
I know M's fans love their prospects, but I don't think Jones, Tillman, Sherrill, Burler and Mickolio is a better package than Eveland, Gonzalez, Anderson, Carter, Cunningham and Smith. IOW, Beane did pretty well in the Haren trade.
Bedard is a higher upside pitcher than Haren, granted, but he also has the higher injury risk, and I estimate the M's will pay him for 2 years something ~ $25m, which will be a lot more the Dbacks will pay Haren for 3 years (~$16m).
But I also think that Haren had more trade value given Bedard's injury history and the extra year Haren is under control.
On the other hand, Bedard's upside probably makes more sense for a team like the Mariners, who need Bedard to repeat 2007 to have any chance of catching the Angels.
What a classy statement from Jones. I will root for this guy.
Another reason to dislike Trembley.
* He says that "sources" told him that Jones/Sherrill/Tillman "are among players who have been prominently mentioned." Well, no ####. "Sources" told me that, too. We really don't care who has been "mentioned"; we care about who has been traded.
* And then he tells us that the Orioles would "likely" trade Roberts, "possibly" for Pie/Gallagher. Again, more "no ####." He's not telling us anything he knows; he's not telling us anything we don't know.
If the standards of sports journalism were not already ridiculously low, it would be appalling that a "journalist" with a major platform wrote that sentence. Unfortunately, Heyman is a hack, so it's impossible to know exactly what he is trying to say. Does Heyman have any information the Pie and Gallagher would be included in a deal for Roberts? Or are Pie and Gallagher just the only two Cubs' prospects that Heyman can name and thus could "possibly" be included in the deal? I'm guessing its the latter, but it could possibly be the former.
Bedard's my Cy Young pick for 2008.
Look at his age. In 2007 he was 21 at AAA. He has always been young for his levels, due to being rushed by the Mariners.
Also, his 2006 829 OPS in AAA at age 20 was worth a 281 EQA from BPro. League average OPS in the PCL in 2006 was 757.
He is also reputedly great defensively in CF.
#### you.
Love,
Me
I don't get this sentiment. Yes, the team outperformed expectations last year, but they were in the playoff hunt most of the year and won eighty-eight games, tied for fifth in the league. Moreover, of the teams ahead of them, the Yankees are old and likely to decline and the Angels are hardly the certainty everyone here seems to make them out to be -- Vlad has got to be considered a serious injury/decline risk with the nagging stuff he seems to have and his go-for-broke style, the team has a serious shortage of power outside of him, and the pitching staff ... okay, the pitching staff is legitimately excellent and can be expected to be again. Still, pitchers are pitchers, and they get hurt.
Seattle also has huge upside in the possibility of King Felix starting to dominate, and they got basically nothing out of their first and second baseman last year. One has to expect some improvement there. Maybe Sexson is falling off a cliff and getting yanked early, or maybe he isn't and he'll recover to post a better year. Jose Lopez is just 23 and will likely improve on last year's numbers. It's not like they had a miracle convergence which allowed them to win as many as 88 games. Especially with the A's rebuilding and the Rangers perpetually doing so, they could easily win 93 or so games and slip into at least the wild card. Certainly it seems like pre-Bedard they are a true talent 85-90 win team, and if you figure Bedard is worth five or so games, that's a huge playoff difference.
Given Bedard's spotty health history, I hope the Mariners really did their due diligence in inspecting Bedard's medical records. I'd be inclined to accept trading Bedard just for Jones and a couple B/C prospects, and I like the Orioles' haul here. That's largely because I'm very bullish on Adam Jones, though, and I expect the Mariners are going to regret trading him.
For them to take the Wild Card, they have to be better than (most likely) at least two of the following clubs: Indians, Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees. All four of those teams are going to be just as tough to beat out as the Angels, some probably more so.
I saw Jones play a few times last summer, and he looks like an exciting player. He's a tough chip to lose, and the loss is harder to take if you don't believe the Ms will even come close to the playoffs by virtue of adding Bedard. If he can contribute a full season's worth of starts, though, I think Bedard puts them closer to stealing a division win from Anaheim than Jones would have. Seattle's playoff chances are realistic enough that it's by no means foolhardy for them to take a shot at it. If all they wanted was certainty, well they certainly won't compete if they don't try.
But they're still counting on Raul Ibanez to maintain his Fountain of Youth act at age 36, at least with the stick, since a butcher defensively. And now they'll probably end up with someone of the Luis Gonzalez/Reggie Sanders type in right field who will also be a butcher defensively and probably struggled to replicate what Jose Guillen brought with the stick.
Moreover, this is still a team that outperformed its Pythag by a huge margin last year. If you believe that the base components of the team (Felix, the bullpen, whatever) make that a likely possibility again, then it's a fine trade.
But if you think (as I do) this was a essentially a .500 team that just added a #1 starter while weakening their defense, offense and bullpen, well, that's not a team likely to contend.
Oh. My. God Levski some new material already, please.
No shite. Leaving aside the talent/upside exchanged, it makes no sense at all for a team like the Cubs, who're obviously trying to win now. Who the hell plays CF if Pie leaves? And why do this for a marginal upgrade over DeRosa? Granted, having DeRosa as a supersub greatly improves the bench, but you'll have opened up a hole in CF. Big thumbs down to that rumor.
I still fear Hendry'll grossly overpay for Roberts, since Roberts appears to be Hendry's white whale of the offseason. (Fukudome doesn't count. By "white whale" I mean a player Hendry targets and seems bound and determined to get for no particular reason, even though he's either not especially good, isn't a particularly good fit for the Cubs, or both. Floyd was that guy last year, Pierre the year before. Roberts is a lot more valuable than those two, of course, but he's not the kind of guy I'd sell the farm for, especially since the Cubs don't exactly have a yawning chasm at second base.)
Unrelated query: Was it a given that Ichiro was going to remain in CF for 2008 or were they going to move him back over to RF and let Jones take over in center?
He should've saved some class for the other Adam Jones.
Scott should be as good or better then Jones for 2008, and he's a little old for a rebuilding project.
Scott's also not eligible for free agency for 5 years.
?????
Why do you say that? Bedard is a terrific starter. He'll win 50 games for the M's over the next 3 years.
What makes you think he'll play 3 years for the M's?
Probably only gon' be there for two.
A's got more good prospects, but Jones should easily be the best player involved in either trade. Facing Bedard won't be fun, but I'm glad the Angels won't have to worry about facing Jones for 6 years.
Point being--Hill under club control for another 5 (?) years + prospects (which is what was rumored) is obviously worth a hell of a lot more than 2 years of Erik Bedard. (And it's hardly unfathomable that the next 2 years of Rich Hill alone will be worth more than the next 2 years of Erik Bedard.)
There is nothing remotely similar about Bedard and Hill's numbers last year.
Against non-pitchers:
Bedard 10.93 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, 7.04 H/9
Hill 8.00 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, 1.38 HR/9, 8.35 H/9
Hill's career through 2007 is similar to Bedard's career through 2006, but it's unlikely that Hill will take the huge step forward that Bedard did last year.
Edit: I see you revised your point, but I still don't see it as very likely that Hill will be a better pitcher than Bedard any time soon.
If I were the Cubs, I probably wouldn't swap Hill-for-Bedard either, for the other reasons you mentioned, but I can see why a contending team would go for it.
No, but even if he regresses halfway to his pre-2007 self, he's comfortably a better pitcher than Hill.
See #64; I misspoke. There is considerable similarity in their numbers through the same age.
No, but even if he regresses halfway to his pre-2007 self, he's comfortably a better pitcher than Hill.
Sure, if you assume that "his pre-2007 self" is comprised solely of his 2006 season, and you assume Hill doesn't improve at all.
If I were the Cubs, I probably wouldn't swap Hill-for-Bedard either, for the other reasons you mentioned, but I can see why a contending team would go for it.
Well, the Cubs *are* a contending team, and I don't even think it'd be a great trade for the present (especially since the O's are likely to want more than just Hill). They can trade Hill for Bedard and still be stuck with Jon Lieber and Jason Marquis at the back of the rotation, and I just don't think the difference between Hill and Bedard *right now* justifies the deal, given the context, and certainly doesn't long term.
If he hits that optimistic line in Safeco, his ERA might start with a 1. Scary stuff.
Well, the Cubs *are* a contending team, and I don't even think it'd be a great trade for the present (especially since the O's are likely to want more than just Hill). They can trade Hill for Bedard and still be stuck with Jon Lieber and Jason Marquis at the back of the rotation, and I just don't think the difference between Hill and Bedard *right now* justifies the deal, given the context, and certainly doesn't long term.
I don't really disagree with any of this.
Swapping Hill+minor leaguers for Bedard almost certainly makes the Cubs better off for 2008 and 2009, but it hurts them down the road.
For a team where virtually the entire lineup is over 30, I could understand why Hendry would make the move.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/01/wilkerson-signs.html
You're right, but the Cubs aren't as 'old' as I thought they were.
C - Soto 25
1b - Lee 32
2b - DeRosa 32
ss - Theriot 28
3b - Ramirez 29
lf - Soriano 32
cf - Pie 22
rf - Fukudome 30
Average - 29.5
That would preclude the lad getting his obligatory 111 at bats, hitting .140, getting sent down, has his effort questioned, and is THEN traded along with Rich Hill to the Orioles for Brian Roberts.
C'mon, retro. It is the lad's destiny.
(Awww, just funnin'. I can't imagine Lou pulling a Dusty. Right? I mean, RIGHT?)
Screw this up and I'm a Nats fan.
Sincerely,
GTWMA
P.S. I like this Acta fellow. Dump Trembley, too, and get him.
See you in Washington.
Signed,
P. Angelos.
P.S. Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out. If I cared about fans, I wouldn't be here. All I care about is MASN.
Are you the biggest idiot ever?
Sincerely,
GTWMA
No. You keep giving me your money.
Signed,
P. Angelos
Dear Bill Bavasi,
I was going to go through with the trade, but then I heard about Adam Jones "Pacman" alias. Kids today spend all their nickels at the electronic gaming pavilions playing "Pacman" and that confounded game where the rectangles volley a dot at each other. That is not the Oriole way.
Best,
Peter
Welcome to rooting for the Nats, GWTMA! We're a fun team heading in the right direction.
Well, you've got a point there. The pattern of Cub outfielders crapping out before being shipped to Baltimore needs to continue. I'm just disappointed they couldn't work a deal for Jones last year.
Probably not. Seriously--other than moving Soriano to center (where he'd be OK, IMHO, but which isn't going to happen), what options for CF do the Cubs have other than Pie? They don't even have Pagan as a half-assed stopgap anymore.
Suppose they could put Fukudome there, but that'd require getting an outfield bat. And by that, I do not mean trading Pie for Roberts, then putting Roberts at second and DeRosa in right.
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