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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Sunday, May 14, 2006
Marc Normandin breaks down Jonny Gomes…the best thing in Tampa Bay clubbing since The Dukes of Hillsborough!
Gomes beat the average and power projections for him by both sources, but he did strike out a great deal, as was expected. In limited defensive time, Gomes was not all that bad, according to BP’s Rate. His Zone Rating in right was .931, but his UZR was terrible, as was his Range. Something I’ve noticed (and discussed with others) is that right field just doesn’t seem to match up system to system. The sample size is small for all of these figures, so don’t read too much into them, especially since Gomes has taken over as the everyday designated hitter in Tampa. Free to mash, he has produced quite the line in 2006 thus far, coming in at .293/.419/.659, with a .336 EqA, 13 homeruns and 27 walks in 123 at-bats. He is still striking out a great deal—46 whiffs so far this year—but he also has extra-base hits 53% of the time. He has amassed 2.1 Wins Above Replacement Player so far this season, which prorates to an incredibly valuable year, even primarily as a DH.
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If you got a good hitting 1B later in the draft, you won't regret having drafted A-Rod. At season's end his numbers will be similar and you'll probably have better cumulative numbers from 1B and 3B than if you'd drafted Pujols.
Same here. Actually, the guy of drafted Gomes (second round from the last) dropped him a week and a half into the season and picked up Dewon Brazelton. I nabbed him and I'm sitting pretty in first place.
Wow. I don't even know what can be said to that.
Now 400/800 is theoretically possible -- Ruth and Thome have done it, Manny's pretty close. For comparison, Adam Dunn is at 367/765 in his career to date. All those guys (and almost every other guy) have better K rates than Gomes.
With his current K rate (1 per 3 AB basically), if he can match Dunn's on-contact numbers, Gomes would hit 245/510 and let's guess an OBP of 350. Nice, not superstar. If he can match Ruth and Thome, he'll be at 267/533 and let's go with a 370 OBP ... that's awfully nice.
Still, dropping that K rate a bit might be nice.
Got him in the 13th round of a ML universe draft, 15 team league, three keepers. He and Papelbon have been huge as late round pickups for me. I remembered last season when the Angels couldn't get him out (as opposed to this season when they can't get anyone out) and took a flyer on him. After six weeks, six games per week (it's a league where players individually earn points for performance, and you play against six different owners every week) I'm 33-3 and have a 12 game lead in my division.
10 team league. I win every year.
Pinella's plans were to start both Cantu and Gomes in the minors last year. Very nice to know he's gone.
Walt's post (#10) mentions "on contact" stats. Are these out there some place?
Surely they must be, but I just calculate them myself.
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