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Thursday, November 01, 2007

Beyond the Box Score: Anderson: Bob Gibson + PETCO = ???

uhh...a thread that’ll knock you down? No, no...it’s just the latest neat bit from RJ Anderson.

Bob Gibson is without a doubt one of the most talented pitchers to grace the sport, his fastball was ethereal and his pacing methodology revolutionary. Throughout Gibson’s career he relied heavily on his fastball, and so it comes as no surprise that his Achilles’ heel would be the round tripper, giving up nearly 17 per season, although not Robin Roberts’ levels - 26 per season for 19 years - but a trend that impacted the right hander none the less.

Something funny happened to his homerun rates from 1966 on, one could argue he was finally entering his prime at age 30, and that he’d had prior success, which is true, seasons of ERAs hovering slightly above and below 3 seemed to be the norm for Gibson in a very hitter friendly ballpark. In May of 1966 the Cardinals moved into Busch Stadium II - a pitcher’s park - and Gibson would see his homerun rates drop dramatically meaning less runs meaning a lower ERA, including a season with a sub-2 ERA, simply amazing.

There isn’t a question of whether Gibson benefited from changing parks - he did - but consider it a evening out of sorts, going from hitters’ to pitchers’ parks Gibson still maintained his high level of play while reaping the goods of different stadiums suited for opposite aspects of the game. I’m not going to be one to question Gibson’s accomplishments or call his great seasons frauds because of his ballpark; instead I question how good would he have been if for the longevity of his career he would’ve had a stadium like PETCO Park positioned behind him along with seven worthy fielders?

Repoz Posted: November 01, 2007 at 08:33 PM | 7 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralHistorySabermetricsSt Louis

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   1. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2007 at 09:39 PM (#2602995)
Oh I always love these things. Let give player X modern advantage but don't have him take any of the disadvantages of modern playing and then let us see how he would do if we play with the numbers.
   2. Timebomb Murdoch Posted: November 01, 2007 at 10:16 PM (#2603018)
Sounds like a new feature set for Baseball Reference is in the works.
   3. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2007 at 10:25 PM (#2603026)
You can already do this with BRef. You can change any players stats to any years environment or the 2000 Rockies or the 1968 Dodgers. It is the neutralize stat option found on every players page.

The author of this articles used the 1968 Dodgers scenari to fill in for his what if on PETCO park.
   4. OCF Posted: November 01, 2007 at 10:26 PM (#2603028)
Bob Gibson was a great pitcher - in his own context, in his own time. When his name came up as a candidate for the Hall of Merit, he absolutely sailed in. The 1981 vote totals had 48 of 54 first place votes for Gibson, and four of the other votes had him second (mostly behind Killebrew.) He had a far easier time being elected to the HoM than did Sandy Koufax. It bothers me a little to take the case for great player and gimmick it up, when you can just play it straight. Yes, 1968 was an extremely low run context, and Gibson in 1968 was a little hit-lucky on balls in play. But it's still a great, great season. (Better than or worse than Gooden 1985? That's a debate.)

One thing I do miss about him: he worked fast. Get the ball back from the catcher, get the sign quick, he's ready to go NOW. A Gibson-pitched game would move right along.

... behind him along with seven worthy fielders?

Seven worthy fielders? How about Dal Maxvill at SS, Curt Flood in CF, and we'll take our chances with the other positions?
   5. Le Comble du Bob Dernier Cri Posted: November 01, 2007 at 10:54 PM (#2603055)
Gibson would've been the best statistical pitcher ever if he played in Dodgers Stadium

And nobody else got to. But if everybody got to play in Dodger Stadium, he would be merely among the better statistical pitchers ever, as he indeed was in real life. You could say the same of all great pitchers.
   6. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: November 02, 2007 at 01:54 AM (#2603136)
Qualcomm, the Murph, what ever you want to call it, was just as bad.
Petco might be slightly worse, but it can't be too much worse.


Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing the study where they put Barry Lamar in the Bronx for his whole career. Give him the same benefits the Babe had. And by benefits, I mean that short porch versus a 30 foot high brick wall.



Tack on another 100?
thats my rough guess.
   7. vortex of dissipation Posted: November 02, 2007 at 02:09 AM (#2603141)
To put it simply: Gibson would've been the best statistical pitcher ever if he played in Dodgers [sic] Stadium - Gibson, Koufax, and Drysdale, man that would've been a rotation for the ages


That would be a rotation for the ages no matter what park they were pitching in...
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