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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, July 07, 2008
Oh no!...Oh no! This is more shocking than Jason Belmonte’s approach to bowling!
First of all, Johan’s strikeouts are still “down.” While 109 strikeouts in 121 innings is nothing to sneeze at, it’s well down from Johan’s rate over the last several seasons (the last time Johan struck out less than a batter an inning was way back in 2001). This is even more troublesome given the fact that Johan is now pitching in the National League, and thus gets to face the pitcher (or a pinch hitter) three or four times a game, as well as generally weaker competition (as evidenced by the American League’s domination in interleague play).
Additionally, Santana’s walk rate is up (albeit slightly). He has walked 2.38 per nine this season, after walking 2.14, 1.81, and 1.75 per nine in each of the last three seasons, respectively. This is not a huge jump, but considering the drop in strikeouts and move to the easier league, it is not a particularly good sign for Santana.
Perhaps of more concern is Santana’s velocity, which is down. This season, according to Fangraphs, his average fastball velocity is 91.2 MPH. Last year his fastball averaged 91.7, and in the previous two seasons it averaged 93.1 and 92.4 MPH. Interestingly, Santana’s changeup velocity has also decreased from 81.9 and 81.8 MPH over the previous two seasons, to 79.9 MPH this season. Additionally, the velocity of Johan’s slider is down, and he is using it less frequently than in the past.
Repoz
Posted: July 07, 2008 at 09:15 AM | 24 comment(s)
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, NY Mets
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Yeah, this new crop of pitchers is like the crop of guys who came after all the great pitchers from the 70's. They just pale in comparison. Lincecum might turn out to be the exception.
True. I nominate Kazmir and Lincecum as the next kings. But they aren't quite there yet.
Simple fix: Johan has to pitch with the ball in both hands. Let's see managers matchup against that!
I believe Dave LaRoche perfected that with his Larry LaLaub pitch.
Was he really? Just using ERA+, he had a 4 year stretch if 148,182, 155, 161. That's great, but does that 4 year stretch put him as one of the best ever? Pedro had a stretch of 219,163,243,291,189,202,210. That's a stretch twice as long where he had 7 years better than the best of Johan. To pick a random 4 year stretch for Randy, he had 186,181,188,197. Maddux 166,171,271,262,162,189,187. That blows Santana out of the water.
Santana strikes me as more of a run of the mill best pitcher in the game (if such a thing exists) than a best ever type of guy.
Or a 3000 strike out pitcher like Curt Schilling. Those 4 guys are so great, they make other great pitchers seem ordinary. They had such different styles and temperaments, as well. AND they did in in a high octane era for offense. We may never again see anything like it.
Or Mike Mussina, who has also put together a pretty darn respectable career. Or John Smoltz, who also knows a little bit about the art of pitching.
When will his reign of terror end? The guy seems impervious to the ravages of time.
He looks as great as ever right now. Seems like this is the first time in awhile he's completely free of nagging injuries.
The group of young guns seem like they can become the quality of Smoltz, Mussina, and Schilling, but unless someone takes a big leap forward, there's nobody right now who looks to touch the big 4. It could happen. Say Lincecum can cut his walks down to about 2 per 9 without becoming more hittable, he might be the next Pedro.
Well, you do have to remember that one of the big 4 didn't really become a member until his late 20s/early 30s. Randy Johnson, for a long time, sure didn't look like someone who would eventually belong in the discussion of greatest LHP of all time.
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