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Monday, June 02, 2008

Beyond the Box Score: Bendix: What’s wrong with Nick Swisher?

Dunno…but he’s led my fantasy team into the filthy logiene of thick toilet swirls.

Already this year Swisher has three fly balls to the warning track (out of 27 fly ball outs) in US Cellular Field. Last season, in McAfee Coliseum, Swisher didn’t have any fly balls caught at the warning track (out of 77 fly ball outs). Swisher has at least ten additional fly balls that have been caught on the warning track in various parks around the American League.

Swisher’s underlying stats suggest that he is not any different of a player than he has been throughout his career. He is still extremely patient, and his walk and strikeout rates are in line with his career rates. His actual BABIP is over 100 points below his expected BABIP, leading to his miserable batting average. Although he only has four homers, he has hit a lot of fly balls and has hit at least 13 balls that were caught on the warning track. Thus, it appears that Swisher has been extremely unlucky so far this year, and if he continues to play like he has thus far, his statistics will drastically improve.

Swisher is hitting the ball often, hard, and far. Soon enough, his statistics will better reflect his ability.

Repoz Posted: June 02, 2008 at 06:07 PM | 10 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsChi White Sox

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: June 02, 2008 at 07:13 PM (#2803249)
Anyone following this team regularly see if Swisher is doing anything wrong?
   2. Jimmy P Posted: June 02, 2008 at 08:13 PM (#2803289)
Anyone following this team regularly see if Swisher is doing anything wrong?

He's not. Hits just aren't dropping for him.
   3. JoeHova Posted: June 02, 2008 at 08:16 PM (#2803292)
I don't get it. Why would warning track shots be more likely to turn into home runs than vice versa?

I agree that Swisher is better than he's playing, I just don't get the above premise.
   4. zenbitz Posted: June 02, 2008 at 08:18 PM (#2803296)
HE'S A BUM!
   5. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: June 02, 2008 at 08:20 PM (#2803297)
Then Guillen on the bus goes "Swish, Swish, Swish"
   6. JPWF13 Posted: June 02, 2008 at 08:31 PM (#2803302)
I don't get it. Why would warning track shots be more likely to turn into home runs than vice versa?

I agree that Swisher is better than he's playing, I just don't get the above premise.


I think the premise is that Swish has hit an absurd # of warning track shots, but has just 4 homers, and that if he just pulled the ball a little more, or had a slightly more favorable wind, some of those warning track shots would have been [additional] homers, and that going forward if he continues to hit the ball as he has, some additional homers will likely occur.

Then again maybe whatever has affected HRs in the AL in general this year has hit him particularly hard.

Then again maybe whatever is preventing the Whitesox opponents from hitting homers has hit Swish particularly hard, and when Swish gets untracked, so will the Sox opposing hitters...
2007: 2.47 HR per Sox Home game, 2.02 per Sox Road Game
2008: 1.87 HR per Sox Home Game, 1.62 per Sox road game
   7. Jimmy P Posted: June 02, 2008 at 08:49 PM (#2803310)
I don't get it. Why would warning track shots be more likely to turn into home runs than vice versa?

Not only that, but tracking warning track shots between ballparks is really rather ugly. Wind patterns, weather, wall distances, all that.
   8. jwb Posted: June 02, 2008 at 08:50 PM (#2803312)
It's been a cold spring in Chicago, at least until the past few days. Power numbers will increase.
   9. PreBeaneAsFan Posted: June 02, 2008 at 08:55 PM (#2803315)
I think the point is there is probably an "average" number of deep FB that end up at the warning track vs over the wall. Someone who has relatively few warning track shots relative to HR and isn't hitting mammoth blasts is probably due for a dropoff in HR rate, while Swisher on the other end of the spectrum is probably due for an increase.
   10. Tuque Posted: June 02, 2008 at 11:12 PM (#2803406)
Can the cold spring explain Victor Martinez as well?
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