Beyond the Box Score: Kalkman: Please Stop Abusing Matt Holliday’s Road Stats

Yeah, leave that to Bruce Jenkins…once he finds out what it is!

I’m not going to try to convince you that Holliday’s numbers aren’t greatly Coors-inflated (because they are), but quoting his road line is a horrible way to judge his true talent level.  Why?

1 - Players perform better at home than on the road, all else being equal.  That’s what causes a home-field advantage!  Across MLB in 2008, the average home OPS was .770 while the average road OPS was .730.

2 - Holliday’s away parks don’t include Coors field, while all other National Leaguer players’ away parks do.  In other words, his away parks lean towards pitching parks, pulling down his numbers.

3 - Using only road numbers ignores more than half of the data we have on Holliday.  How is that a good thing?  It’s a much better idea to use ALL the data available and do a proper park adjustment.

4 - There very well might be a “Coors Hangover Effect”.  Since breaking balls don’t break as much and flyballs are rewarded big time in Coors, Rockies hitters might be hurt on the road because they can no longer count on those advantages.  I haven’t seen any conclusive studies for or against this theory, but the Rockies do tend to have more extreme home/road winning percentage splits than other teams.

5 - Why are we using career numbers?  Why not the most recent seasons?  Holliday’s road OPS numbers from 2006 through 2008 are .819, .860, and .892.  That’s an average of .857 and a 5/4/3 weighted average of .863.