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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Beyond the Boxscore: Anderson: This Isn’t FJM, But…

R.J. picks apart Golokhov...which, if not cleaned immediately, could lead to painful Saberrhoeic dermatitis!

Sabermetrics and scientific stats are used to evaluate players and give a better indication of their worth, but teams like the Minnesota Twins use this strategy to kiss their superstars goodbye at the trade deadline or the first day of free agency.

Or maybe he simply doesn’t know what he’s talking about. When you think of statistically savvy teams I imagine the franchises that pop to mind, in no particular order are the A’s, Padres, Jays, Red Sox, Rays, Indians, and perhaps the Pirates nowadays, but the Twins? Not so much.

As for Golokhov’s second point; how many superstars have the Twins shipped off over the past few years that actually have came back to haunt them? David Ortiz is one, but outside of Casey Blake the players they’ve let walk, like Jacque Jones and Cristian Guzman, haven’t exactly been “superstars” or “good” since leaving. Further being a statistical orientated team doesn’t mean you just let your superstars walk, or have we forgotten how those darn stats teams re-signed players like Jake Peavy, Mike Lowell, Travis Hafner, and Eric Chavez over the years?

If the Twins are considered a stats franchise who lets players walk, why did Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Nathan get re-signed to deals ranging from 24 million to 80 million?

Repoz Posted: May 06, 2008 at 08:26 AM | 14 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsMinnesota

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   1. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: May 06, 2008 at 08:46 AM (#2770513)
I'm sorry, but I fail to see anything wrong with his statement:

" The Twins constantly sell proven veterans for prospects and draft picks, but when those youngsters finally develop, they get shipped away to start the cycle again. The Twins incessantly look to the future and winning now is not a priority. Translation: the Twins care more about the dollars than about winning."

It's pretty obvious at this point that Pohlad really only cares about dollars, you know....
   2. AROM Posted: May 06, 2008 at 08:53 AM (#2770519)
The Twins constantly sell proven veterans for prospects and draft picks


Constantly? Yes, starting with Torii Hunter and continuing through Johan Santana. Before that the Twins had a pretty good 5 year run where they kept their core of good young players together and won a few division titles.
   3. Clarence Thomas luuuvs Jacoby Ellsbury (scott) Posted: May 06, 2008 at 09:06 AM (#2770524)
they signed morneau and mauer and nathan. Mauer and Morneau are by far and away the best young position players they've had in a long time. while i probably would have put the Morneau and Nathan money towards Santana it's certainly not insane to pick your only real slugger and one of the 3-4 best closers in the game over a pitcher who while great is still always an injury risk by dint of his position.

the Young trade was excellent, and the Santana trade could work out well (Gomez, for all his growing pains, reminds me a LOT of Jose Reyes in his first full season. he'll end up as a .290/.330/.400 guy, i think- and in CF with excellent defense and speed that's a pretty big asset. he's also a whole lot of fun to watch.) and if Kubel is even half the player people expected him to be before he got hurt they'll have a decent team. with all their young pitching, it's not a huge shock that they're in first place right now.

the twins are a very well run team, even if they do things differently than we always agree with. they could be better at scouting offensive players, but for a small market team they're very successful.
   4. faketeams Posted: May 06, 2008 at 09:11 AM (#2770527)
OBP is the bg stat that critics of the twins focus on, but their pitching staff has issued the fewest walks this year. If they prevent the other team from getting on-base, isn't that an OBP-focused team?
   5. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: May 06, 2008 at 09:58 AM (#2770562)
I blame sabermetrics for letting A.J. get away.
   6. JPWF13 Posted: May 06, 2008 at 10:27 AM (#2770585)
the Young trade was excellent, and the Santana trade could work out well (Gomez, for all his growing pains, reminds me a LOT of Jose Reyes in his first full season.


Reyes at 19/20 hit .307/.334/.434 in the MLB
at 20/21 he hit .255/.271/.373 in an injury riddled season
then at 21/22 in his first "full" season he hit .273/.300/.386
at 22/23: .300/.354/.487
at 23/24: .280/.354/.421

at 21/22 Carlos Gomez (over 2 years) has hit .250/.292/.336 in the MLB
his career minor league line is .278/.336/.399, his minor league K/bb numbers are really bad- much worse than Reyes were in the minors, so far his major league numbers are worse than Reyes at a comparable age (and Reyes K/bb was [pretty bad early on)

The only thing comparable between Reyes and Gomez is their running speed- at full steam Gomez is a little faster- however, he doesn't really use that speed as well as Reyes on the base paths, and as far as his bat is concerned, Gomez might as well be using a whiffleball bat

I know he's young, but I don't ever see Gomez being an above average hitter aside from maybe a fluke year or two (like Endy Chavez had in 2006).
   7. Chris now in Shanghai! Posted: May 06, 2008 at 12:30 PM (#2770720)
You can say the Twins are cheap but that doesn't mean they're a bad franchise. They are extraordinarily well run for the money they spend.
   8. jwb Posted: May 06, 2008 at 02:06 PM (#2770821)
As far as I can see they made moderate to fair offers to Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, but obviously couldn't match the resources presented by the Mets and Angels, that doesn't make them cheap, that simply means they lack the financial resources to make such commitments.
The Twins can match any financial commitment made by any team to any player. They often choose not to. There is a huge difference between those statements.
   9. Primakov Posted: May 06, 2008 at 03:12 PM (#2770890)
Most of the article he's quoting reads like it was written when Moneyball just came out. Critiquing that article is like shooting fish in a barrel.

The bits about the Bruins are the most dated, actually. I understand (and agree) about Bruins' ownership being cheapskates UNTIL the salary-cap era, but now? They're pretty darn close to the cap now.

Lazy article which was partially cut-and-pasted from years ago. Mr. Golokhov, you are a hack.
   10. Petunia Posted: May 06, 2008 at 04:10 PM (#2770983)
I'm on board with #9. I wouldn't have bothered with a FOXSports article with a byline "askmen.com". And I thought some of Anderson's critiques were a little off-kilter, too. The Ortiz counter-example is fairly weird and the Peavy/Lowell/Hafner/Chavez examples of "stats teams sign extensions" came off to me as completely random.
   11. Ludwig the Indestructible Posted: May 06, 2008 at 04:27 PM (#2771002)
I blame sabermetrics for letting A.J. get away.


You mean, Sabeanmeterics?
   12. Son of Snigglet Posted: May 06, 2008 at 04:59 PM (#2771034)
OBP is the bg stat that critics of the twins focus on, but their pitching staff has issued the fewest walks this year. If they prevent the other team from getting on-base, isn't that an OBP-focused team?

I don't know if you're being facetious here, but this is the big Twins paradox. They recognize the value of not allowing walks, but are completely ignorant to the value of drawing walks. Gardenhire's hitting philosophy is "hack away", which is something he's been quoted as preaching to Gomez, his leadoff hitter. The result is Gomez's .297 OBP, and a .310 team OBP this year.
   13. JPWF13 Posted: May 06, 2008 at 05:41 PM (#2771072)
I don't know if you're being facetious here, but this is the big Twins paradox. They recognize the value of not allowing walks, but are completely ignorant to the value of drawing walks.


It's not a Twin thing, it's an old timer baseball thing- almost every ex-player baseball analyst over a certain age will go on and on about how giving up walks will kill you, "oh those bases on balls", but seem to see drawing walks as having no value.

I think that many baseball people/observers see a walk as something a pitcher does, the batter just happens to be the lucky recipient. Way back when 100 years ago or so, when stat keeping/stat definitions were in flux, many thought that batter walks shouldn't be counted as anything- getting on by walk was seen the same as getting on by error (IMHO baseball should have been keeping track of ROE all along too...).

Even guys like Ted Williams seemed to see no inherent value in walks. Williams believed in batting average and he believed you should only swing at strikes because those were the best pitches to hit- balls were bad pitches to hit and so shouldn't be swung at.

Obviously in the 40s and 50s there were no small number of batters who actively sought to draw BBs as an offensive weapon- puzzlingly that seemed to wane (puzzlingly because it was sure as hell an effective offensive weapon), and moreover the advocates of walking did not control the discussion of how baseball was supposed to be played thereafter.

Gardenhire's hitting philosophy is "hack away", which is something he's been quoted as preaching to Gomez, his leadoff hitter. The result is Gomez's .297 OBP, and a .310 team OBP this year.
Gomez has ALWAYS been a hacker, I wouldn't blame Gardie.
   14. Petunia Posted: May 06, 2008 at 06:00 PM (#2771087)
I think the root of it is the traditional belief that walks are pitcher-dependent and not to do with the hitter.
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