Beyond the Boxscore: Moore: Jay Bruce and Balls in Play

That’s Moore Jay Bruce Balls in Play, not More Jay Bruce Balls in Play...because that would be unpossible.

Jay Bruce’s contribution to this team has certainly been significant.  His contributions total to 1.4 wins above replacement so far, which is roughly .5 wins above average, and over 600 plate appearances this production would total 3.1 wins.

However, Bruce’s reputation as a prospect was as an elite hitter.  Bruce’s contributions this year have been almost completely with the glove, posting a +7.9 UZR in RF.  His hitting has been merely average, with his .332 wOBA resulting in an insignificant total runs below average.  Bruce put up a similar .328 wOBA in 452 PAs (180 more than his current 2009 total of 272).  Common to both of his lines is a low BABIP on fly balls and line drives.  Thanks to a 21.1% line drive rate, despite a LD BABIP lower than the NL average by 29 points and a FB BABIP lower than the NL average by a whopping 56 points (39% of the NL BABIP), Bruce still maintained a .298 BABIP.  Unfortunately for Bruce and the Reds, his line drive rate fell precipitously to 13.8% this year, and, unbelievably, so did his BABIPs on fly balls and line drive.  A ridiculously low .560 BABIP on LDs and and unfathomable .025 FB BABIP have led to an overall BABIP of .205 through June 22nd.

...Bruce’s BABIP woes, however they’re caused, have removed over a win from his value in 728 PAs.  In fact, considering Bruce’s 0.5 WAR last year and 1.4 WAR this year, Bruce’s results on balls in play are reducing his value by nearly a third to a half.  Personally, I would be interested in seeing some Hit F/X analysis on this issue, but I don’t have access to the data.  Hopefully for Reds fans, it’s merely a case of bad luck.  Despite Bruce’s 2008 looking decent by overall BABIP, he still lost a lion’s share of value from below average LD and FB BABIP.  His value going forward could depend on it improving, not to mention the Reds playoff chances.