Billy's right.

Heck, even old man Johnson managed to hang in there for 4 innings at least while getting his dick knocked in the dirt by Brad Ausmus and the Astros today.

And check out old man Mark Redman with the Rockies a few days ago. Got hammered in the first, went 7 strong. What a man.

Well, 6. Park adjustment, I guess.

Hey, this Wagner guy sounds like a great teammate.

Remember Maddux after the 22 inning game? Got hammered and still pitched 7 innings to save the bullpen.

Why did Met's fans believe Perez had really turned it around? Why wasn't it clear last year was just another fluke season from a career journeyman who turns in a fluke every five years or so?

Wow, Wagner's an #######. But he's a HTWG, so he's a gamer instead I'm sure. ;)

Next time Wagner blows a save, the Mets should ask him to stay in the game until it's over.

Why did Met's fans believe Perez had really turned it around? Why wasn't it clear last year was just another fluke season from a career journeyman who turns in a fluke every five years or so?

He does have a 4.03 ERA so far this season and has not allowed a run in 3 of his six starts. Perez is flakey as hell but he has excellent stuff. You have to take the good with the bad with him. Overall, he should have a solid season.

The Mets have not really played well so far this season. What this team needs is to get on a good roll.

Perez's seasons seem to directly correspond to whether his BABIP is above or below .300. He's above .300 right now, for what it's worth.

Edit: Oh and Ollie's ERA is only as low as 4.03 because while he gave up 7 runs in 1 & 1/3 innings, only 2 were earned. After he walked the bases full, an error then allowed him to give up two singles, another walk, and a sacrifice fly before being relieved of duty. It's that silly "earned run" rule that bailed him out. I don't know what his FIPS or xERA is, but it can't be remotely close to good.

A starter who alternates crappy starts with excellent ones is more valuable than a starter who pitches the same every time out with the same overall numbers.

A starter who alternates crappy starts with excellent ones is more valuable than a starter who pitches the same every time out with the same overall numbers.

I think that the truth of that statement depends upon the quality of the team's offense. If you have a good offense, you'd prefer the consistently mediocre pitcher. If your offense sucks, you'd prefer the pitcher that can win the game by himself half the time.

Wagner is right that Perez picked a bad time to have his worst start of the season. Walking five in less than two innings is inexcusable. It's one thing to not have your best stuff and get knocked around a little bit as a result, but you can't go out there nibbling when your team needs innings more than anything else.

That said, Wagner is wrong to rake his teammate over the coals in public like that. It's classless. And pretty rich considering if Wagner had done his job the night before, the bullpen wouldn't have been as taxed.

How can a guy who gags so much make that much noise?

I don't know what his FIPS or xERA is, but it can't be remotely close to good.

His FIPS is probably around 4.20. He has struck out a good number of hitters (8+/9 ip) and has only given up one homer.

I agree he has not pitched well so far this season but he'll probably end up with an ERA around 3.75-4.00 when the season is over.

Maybe someone who pitches more than three innings a week should have made the point to Perez, in the club house, not the press.

xFIP according the Hardball Times is 4.95. Amazing how that number levels out Perez's otherwise roller-coaster career.

Starting in 2002:

ERA: 2.98, 5.85, 6.63, 6.38, 3.56, 4.03
xFIP: 3.74, 5.48, 6.10, 4.65, 4.74, 4.95

Big talk from a guy who tops out around 70 innings a year.

Perhaps he made those statements in a tone of encouragement.

KNOW YOUR PLACE, TALENTED BUT INCONSISTENT VETERAN

His FIPS is probably around 4.20. He has struck out a good number of hitters (8+/9 ip) and has only given up one homer.

He's lucky his ERA isnt around 6. He's averaging less than 5 innings per start and has 21 BB, 3 HBP, and 2 WP in 29 IP. The HR rate is a fluke. 4% of his flyballs have left the stadium; his career average is around 14% and last year was 10.6%. He averages 19 pitches per inning and has not made it to the 7th inning in any of his starts.

And pretty rich considering if Wagner had done his job the night before, the bullpen wouldn't have been as taxed.

Wagner is a punk, but it's hard to blame him for Reyes not making a routine play.

Wagner is a punk, but it's hard to blame him for Reyes not making a routine play.

It's called picking up your teammates when they're down! If Wagner was any kind of man, he would've summoned his best veteran clutchitude and pitched around the error.

Wagner continues to prove what a prik he is.

He's lucky his ERA isnt around 6. He's averaging less than 5 innings per start and has 21 BB, 3 HBP, and 2 WP in 29 IP. The HR rate is a fluke. 4% of his flyballs have left the stadium; his career average is around 14% and last year was 10.6%. He averages 19 pitches per inning and has not made it to the 7th inning in any of his starts.

Perez would have reached the 7th in his first start if the Mets weren't leading 13-0.

Perez is, like Russlan said, a talented but inconsistent pitcher. It doesn't seem fair to kill him after he just made his worst start of the season.

Why is the 1 HR he has allowed a fluke, but not all the walks? He's allowed 6.5 BB per 9 this year, and his career is about 4.7. He had a start last year, his second of the year vs Philly, where he walked 7 in 2 and 2 thirds. His next time out, he allowed 2 runs against ATL in 6 and 2 thirds, walking 0 and striking out 9.

I think he will end the season close to where he did last year, an above average starter who shows flashes of brilliance and flashes of sucking.

hasn't Wagner routinely ####### and moaned about being used in non-save situations? what an [donkey]

CONOZCA SU LUGAR

I think he will end the season close to where he did last year, an above average starter who shows flashes of brilliance and flashes of sucking.

He was only above average last year if you ignore the unearned runs.

The reason the HR rate is flukish is because HR/FB rate takes a much much longer time to stabilize and reflect "true talent" than BB rate does. They're both flukes to a degree of course (as are all stats).

More show tunes, Repoz!

Why is the 1 HR he has allowed a fluke, but not all the walks? He's allowed 6.5 BB per 9 this year, and his career is about 4.7. He had a start last year, his second of the year vs Philly, where he walked 7 in 2 and 2 thirds. His next time out, he allowed 2 runs against ATL in 6 and 2 thirds, walking 0 and striking out 9.

What would concern me is that he has not been particularly good since May of last year.

First 10 starts last year: 63.2 IP, 18 BB, 61 K, 2.69 ERA

Last 19 starts last year: 113 IP, 61 BB, 113 K, 4.05 ERA (63 runs total; 12 unearned)

First 6 starts this year: 29 IP, 21 BB, 26 K, 4.03 ERA (18 runs total; 5 unearned)

His RA per 9 over the last 25 starts is 5.51

The Ks are always going to be there, but the walks per 9 have gone from 2.6 to 4.9 to 6.5 (or 5.2 over the last 142 IP). This is why he has averaged 5.7 innings per start for his career. He'll always have games where he looks dominant, and I suppose that is what makes him such a tantalizing player.

FYI, Neyer quoted posts # 12, 16, 20, and 24 in his blog on the topic. Do we get royalties for this stuff?

“Wagner honestly has got to step up and know that we’ve been given a lead that they've entrusted to him,” Perez said. “He can’t come in and come out there and decide that he wants to give up another 465 foot game-blowing homer to Aramis Ramirez, and so be it.”

He was only above average last year if you ignore the unearned runs.

Not quite. Perez had a RA of 4.58 last year. If my math is right (never a lock), the average starter in the NL had an RA of 4.99 last year. Even taking park effects into well, effect, he was still above average. Certainly not 20% better than league average, like his ERA would suggest, but still above average.

What would concern me is that he has not been particularly good since May of last year.

First 10 starts last year: 63.2 IP, 18 BB, 61 K, 2.69 ERA

Last 19 starts last year: 113 IP, 61 BB, 113 K, 4.05 ERA (63 runs total; 12 unearned)

First 6 starts this year: 29 IP, 21 BB, 26 K, 4.03 ERA (18 runs total; 5 unearned)

His RA per 9 over the last 25 starts is 5.51

Certainly part of that is selective endpoints, but I agree with the point in general. In his first 4 starts last year, he had that one stinker vs Philly, and didn't walk a hitter in the other 3. The guy has always struggled with his control and I don't see that stopping any time soon. He isn't the 6 BB per 9 IP guy he is now, but he will probably settle in the 4.5-5 range, which certainly puts a limit on how good he is. I still think he will be a better than league average guy who will have really high highs and really low lows. He did have 17 out of 29 quality starts last year.

He'll always have games where he looks dominant, and I suppose that is what makes him such a tantalizing player.

Which is why, as of right now, I have no interest in seeing the Mets sign him to a long term deal.

The reason the HR rate is flukish is because HR/FB rate takes a much much longer time to stabilize and reflect "true talent" than BB rate does. They're both flukes to a degree of course (as are all stats).

I do understand this, and trust me, I have been harping on the fact that his HR+ is something like 300 this year. But it's also possible that since he is walking so many batters and missing the zone so often, he isn't throwing a lot of hittable pitches. Anyway, the reason I brought it up was because it was said that Perez is looking his ERA isn't around 6, and xFIP, which normalizes your HR rate based on fly balls allowed, has him at 4.95.

FYI, Neyer quoted posts # 12, 16, 20, and 24 in his blog on the topic. Do we get royalties for this stuff?

Seeing the words "David Bell's Panties" on ESPN is enough of a royalty for me

I don't think Wagner shows a higher level of ill-will than normal or expected here, but I'm sincerely confused. Does he actually think that Perez DECIDES to pitch poorly or that he actually doesn't care if he does? Because that's what he implies and if I was Perez that's what I would seriously take issue with more than anything.

A starter who alternates crappy starts with excellent ones is more valuable than a starter who pitches the same every time out with the same overall numbers.

I think that the truth of that statement depends upon the quality of the team's offense. If you have a good offense, you'd prefer the consistently mediocre pitcher. If your offense sucks, you'd prefer the pitcher that can win the game by himself half the time.

I propose a moratorium on such comments, until somebody proves that the difference between the "consistently mediocre pitcher" and the "starter who alternates crappy starts with excellent ones" is meaningful. This comment crops up all the time: it sounds intelligent but there is no understanding of what the actual margin is. I would be surprised if the difference between the two pitchers added up to half a win a season. We have no idea yet if the Mets offense is good enough to prefer the "consistently mediocre" pitcher, and nobody is going to do an in depth look at how streaky or unstreaky one pitcher is compared to the average. Anyone that pretends to be making an intelligent comment by bringing up this little point is in fact not saying anything at all.

FYI, Neyer quoted posts # 12, 16, 20, and 24 in his blog on the topic. Do we get royalties for this stuff?

drats. maybe i shouldn't say prik.

"FYI, Neyer quoted posts # 12, 16, 20, and 24 in his blog on the topic. Do we get royalties for this stuff?"

I miss being able to read Neyer for free.

but I'm sincerely confused. Does he actually think that Perez DECIDES to pitch poorly or that he actually doesn't care if he does?

We tend to think of players as Strat-o-matic cards, walking sets of probabilites whose values never change because they are always operating at maximum effort. But people never think of themselves like that. I work a physical and stressful job and when I have shifts that are worse than others I don't blame luck (well, sometimes). You always feel that you (and your coworkers) can bust their butt even harder than they're already doing.

I don't think it's an indictment of Perez for another player to suggest that he needs to try harder. My boss would never tell me, "I know that you are always trying as hard as you can, sometimes you'll just have a disaster of a night and we're ok with that." After the disaster he would say "That can't happen again, you have to work your ass off to make sure it doesn't." I wouldn't be offended that he had impugned my work ethic.

I think the criticism of Perez is especially valid: he seems to lose his head after an error or a bad walk. And he absolutely does need to man up and get stronger in those situations.

I propose a moratorium on such comments, until somebody proves that the difference between the "consistently mediocre pitcher" and the "starter who alternates crappy starts with excellent ones" is meaningful

Doesn't BPro have--or had?--a stat that measures this kind of thing? With one of those too-clever-by-half kind of names? FLAKE or something? Am I just totally making this up?

Perez leads the league in FLAKE.

After the disaster he would say "That can't happen again, you have to work your ass off to make sure it doesn't." I wouldn't be offended that he had impugned my work ethic.

Well, sure, I get that, but that's different from what Wagner said:

“He can’t come in and come out there and decide that he doesn’t have it today, and so be it.”

That's pretty specific, and does seem to me to be impugning his work ethic.

KNOW YOUR PLACE, TALENTED BUT INCONSISTENT VETERAN

Nice.

Why is it Oliver Perez's fault that Willie Randolph manages to use 5 pitchers in games where the starter goes more than six innings? Wagner is a douche.

What I meant was: my boss would be impugning - I should stop using this word - impugning my work ethic, and I wouldn't be upset about it. Because I don't consider myself a strat card that is always working at 100% effort. I can almost always bust my butt a little bit more than I am, and I also think that through practice and preparation I can make myself better in the future. I think most professionals, and most baseball players think the same way.

If I give 100% effort and am in the right frame of mind to do my job perfectly, and I still have a bad night, then I'll be angry, but probably angry because I was put into a position where I couldn't possibly succeed. Facing the Pirates, and then walking 5 and not getting out of the second inning is not such a position.

If Perez is saying to himself, "I can't let that happen again, I should have done better," then Billy Wagner is not telling him anything he doesn't already know. Perez would only consider Billy's comments an insult if Perez himself thought that 7 runs in 1.1 innings WAS the very best he was capable of yesterday, or if he thinks that the days that he "doesn't have it" occur randomly and there is no amount of effort or preparation or guts that can prevent them.

My point is that saying, "Does he actually think that Perez DECIDES to pitch poorly" almost denies the fact that Perez has any agency in his own results. I think it is a very rare ballplayer that goes at every single game with exactly the same effort and just reasons that the results that occur will be random. If you strike out, you don't tell yourself, "Well, I strike out in 14% of ABs, this was just one of them." You say, "I let my team down, I will try harder next time."

Whether or not Wagner should have called him out in public is another story altogether, of course.

And it might have come off a little better if not for the fact that part of the reason the bullpen was tired was because Wagner had blown a save the night before.

I understand Reyes made an error leading off the 9th, just saying.

Wagner should stop throwing Perez under the bus and throw Willie under instead. Willie cannot manage the bullpen and insists on using every pitcher every day.