Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez should be a first-ballot selection, but who knows how history will treat a player who has, essentially, played his entire career during the steroid era and has admitted using performance-enhancing drugs? Not even Barry Bonds has to deal with that. And A-Rod being A-Rod, well, there’s a chance that something else lurks.

Beyond that? Yankees starter Andy Pettitte, who admitted yesterday he gets looks from players when he tells them this is his eighth World Series, has both the regular-season and postseason cachet to be voted in and gets brownie points for an unambiguous confession of using human growth hormone.

Hello, inconsistent standards.

gets brownie points for an unambiguous confession of using human growth hormone.

No, he gets brownie points for trying to rat out PED uber-villain Clemens.

I was watching PTI the other day and they were doing their silly "would you rather have X or Y" thing. AROD vs Howard. And Wilbon pipes in with Howard ("he's proven he can do it") plus "AROD's old, what's Howard, like 10 years younger than AROD?"

It's 4 years of course. Howard's HOF candidacy will primarily rest on how well he ages. At some point here, 500 HR is going to stop being automatic.

So what are the chances he'll make it that long? From ages 27-29, he's got a 135 OPS+ which really isn't that incredible for a corner hitter (e.g. by OPS+ terms, 21 players 2007-9 averaged a higher OPS+, minimum 1000 PA ... 18 if you bump it up to 1500 PA). Looking at guys of roughly the same age, you've got Tex, Holliday, Pena, Utley and Dunn ahead of him. Add in guys who haven't hit their peak yet -- Fielder, Hanley, Mauer, Braun, Cabrera, Gonzalez, Wright -- and it's hard to see him as having been THAT special over the last 3 years.

And those 3 years are about 60% of his career to date. (Yes, it does leave out his monster 2006 but I almost always use quickie 3-year comps).

Still, if he hangs around long enough, he'll compile a mighty impressive stat line. His age-28 comps at b-r aren't too bad really (Tony Clark clearly doesn't belong). If he ages as well as Cash, Delgado or McGriff, he'll sail in comfortably.

At some point here, 500 HR is going to stop being automatic.

I'd say it already is. I'd also argue it never really was.

At some point here, 500 HR is going to stop being automatic.

As apt a description of the steroid era as any...

If he ages as well as Delgado or McGriff, neither of whom are (probably) getting into the HOF?

To me the more interesting question is whether Utley will make it. He got a really late start so he'll have to have some good longevity and it'll be essential for him to remain a 2B for most of that time.

On the other hand, he's pretty criminally underrated right now as an active player, so even if he does put together a clearly HOF-worthy career I could see him getting the Trammell-Larkin treatment.

I was really rooting for Utley to get a third home run on Wednesday night, because silly things like that help a player's hall of fame case if it turns out borderline.

Ryan Howard also got a bit of a late start, but he has a Rookie of the Year, an MVP (with strong MVP voting since), two home run titles and one World Series championship. Most players with those credentials are in the Hall, provided their careers last 15+ seasons. Ryan will have to stay active another decade. Back-to-back World Series titles would help (as it did Tony Perez).

he's pretty criminally underrated right now as an active player

Two-time allstar Carlos Delgado was criminally underrated. Perennial allstar and MVP vote-getter Chase Utley seems about as underrated as Derek Jeter at this point.

1) A-Rod
2) Jeter
3) Pedro
4) Rivera
5) Posada
6) Teixeira
7) Utley
8) Howard
9) Sabathia
10) Rollins
11) Pettite
12) Damon

That's how I'd rank their current Hall-worthiness.

Numbers 6-9 will pass 5 (which is where I'd draw the current in/out line) if they keep it going for a half-dozen more years, though I assume at least one of them won't. Utley is the Joe Gordon of the aughts, without the war. 1B in modern Hall arguments is all kinds of interesting. It's also easy to forget that Damon was primarily a centerfielder, though that's not enough.

If he ages as well as Delgado or McGriff, neither of whom are (probably) getting into the HOF

?

Yes, because he's way ahead of them now. Still it seems clear to me that, given the choice, I'd rather have Prince Fielder. What is he, ten years younger than Howard?

Meanwhile I think Jeff Kent is your harbinger for Utley.

And I'd say that above the in/out line right now it's

ARod
Jeter
Rivera
Pedro
maybe Pettitte

That might be the first time I've seen Rollins on a possible HOF list.

And 280 HR's and 2,800 Hits just might do it.

The whole question for a lot of these guys is whether the HoF will ultimately continue to execute it's historical standards in which case all 12 of the guys in #10 are plausible. Or are they going to continue to execute the standards of the past 20 years in which case half of those guys have a shot.

That might be the first time I've seen Rollins on a possible HOF list.

He's a B-level Barry Larkin.

Perennial allstar and MVP vote-getter Chase Utley seems about as underrated as Derek Jeter at this point.

Utley's NL ranks in WAR, 2005-08: 4, 4, 2, 2
Utley's ranks in NL MVP voting, 2005-08: 13, 7, 8, 14

Yeah, he's not underrated at all.

Two-time allstar Carlos Delgado was criminally underrated. Perennial allstar and MVP vote-getter Chase Utley seems about as underrated as Derek Jeter at this point.

The Delgado comparison is particularly odd, because Delgado has actually received a good deal more MVP support than Utley, despite their best seasons being roughly equivalent in value. He's exceeded a .5 MVP share twice, while Utley has never cleared .25. He's only been an All-Star twice because first base has been incredibly loaded during his career. For instance, in 2005, when he had a 161 OPS+ and wasn't an All-Star, two of the NL's three best players were first basemen (Pujols and Lee). Delgado also hit much better in the second half that year, which obviously wouldn't do much in terms of getting him an All-Star spot.

To me the more interesting question is whether Utley will make it. He got a really late start so he'll have to have some good longevity and it'll be essential for him to remain a 2B for most of that time.

On the other hand, he's pretty criminally underrated right now as an active player, so even if he does put together a clearly HOF-worthy career I could see him getting the Trammell-Larkin treatment.

Being on a 2-time World Series team, and playing very well in the postseason, has really boosted Utley's profile, so that he's moved from "criminally underrated" to something more like "wow, I hadn't realized how good he is". He is hurt, though, I think, by the fact that Rollins and Howard have both won MVP awards, so he's seen as the third-best player on his own team (which can still be good enough for the Hall of Fame if it's a good enough team, mind you). It would really help him if he could win his own MVP award, so that he can match up to Rollins and Howard in that regard (sort of Joe Morgan to the other two's Pete Rose and Johnny Bench, perhaps)

He is hurt by the combination of his late start and his being "criminally underrated" early in his career. One way this has hurt is that Utley is yet to win a Gold Glove according to BB-Ref, which really surprises me. I think he'll need to win several of those to have a strong chance with BBWAA voters. If he falls of a cliff at age 33 or 34 like, say, Robbie Alomar did, I think the late start / being underrated early will leave the impression of a shorter and less valuable career than Utley will have actually had and might also hinder his ability to win "make-up" Gold Gloves in his mid-to-late 30s to make up for the ones he deserved in his late 20s.

But he's got a MUCH stronger shot at being elected to the Hall of Fame today than he did two or three years ago.

Oh, and Barry Larkin has never appeared on a Hall-of-Fame ballot, so it's not at all clear what it would mean to receive "Larkin treatment".

some of us are ahead in time from the rest of you. The economy weakly recovered, health care reform passed with an opt-out, reality shows finally lost it as sitcoms made a comeback, and global warming plateaud.

oh, I ain't tellin you who won any sports stuff. Right now I'm cleaning up in Vegas.

But he's got a MUCH stronger shot at being elected to the Hall of Fame today than he did two or three years ago.

A couple of weeks ago, I'd agree, but I worry about the two throwing errors earlier in the postseason. Somebody posted that on the (int'l?) radio feed during Game One, Rick Sutcliffe talked about how the series had four middle infielders who were strong offensively and defensively ... well, except for Utley's defense!

He's really going to be tarnished for his career by those errors, to the point where the portion of baseball fans and commentators who even think to give a guy a bonus for defense and playing a tough position will give Chase the Jeff Kent treatment.