|
|
|
|
Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
In the wake of Mariano Rivera earning his 500th save on Sunday night, an interesting debate has been born in the blogosphere.
Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter?
There’s no doubt that both were the two biggest titans not named Joe Torre during the championship years and it’s hard to imagine the Yankees winning without either future Hall of Famer wearing pinstripes.
happysky
Posted: June 30, 2009 at 10:21 PM | 29 comment(s)
Related News: NY Yankees
|
My Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
the women in New York would never have a chance, heck between Jeter and Ruth, Chamberlain is a virgin.
agreed, about the pre-selction, but you have to scroll down about three articles to get the result (it's the yahoo screw up design and they wonder how come Google, Facebook and others have surpassed them.
Add David Wells' mustache and Joe Pepitone's chin-cleft, and pregnancy occurs upon eye contact.
Youkilis? Ortiz? Mo Vaughn?
You'll have to be more specific. That describes at least 3 players...
Bernie and Jorge say "hello".
He vould have an enormous schwanzstucker.
Less regular season value, but much more post-season value. The ability to pitch 2 innings per game in the post-season is highly underrated by fans of teams who make the playoffs once a decade.
When you're the better team in baseball's postseason, it's more likely than not that you'll win, but there's no such thing as an upset. When you're the better team in baseball's postseason, plus you know that your closer will pitch 5 of the highest leverage innings in the series with a 50% chance he gives up no runs, 50% chance he gives up only one, you're in the f---ing driver's seat.
The problem with this analysis is that in the 3 World Series years when Mo was closer, there were very few close series, and he had very few saves. Any competent closer allows those teams to win, even if a few blown saves make the series 4-1 instead of 4-0.
Basically, when the Yankees had a margin for error, Mo was perfect, and when they didn't he blew some saves. You can't blame him for that. But to say they don't win those Championships without him is simply ignoring the historical record.
Edit: I posted this yesterday in another Mo thread.
1998: beat Tex. 3-0, Cle 4-2 (only 1 save-2-run lead for Mo), SD 4-0
1999: beat Tex. 3-0, Bos 4-1, Atl 4-0
2000: beat Oak. 3-2 (2 2-run saves), Sea 4-2 (1 2-run save), NYM 4-1.
Replace Rivera with John Wetteland (which was a very real possibility) and I'm 95% confident the Yankees win all 3 World Series titles. Mo's perfection really wasn't critical.
I think Jeter, Williams, Pettitte and maybe Cone and O'Neill were more important in the Championship run. Even though Mo has had a far more impressive career than any of them other than Jeter.
I'm not saying he's the reason for all their championships. They were the best team in baseball for just about all of those years ... sure you can win 1 or 2 without any given player. The odds are strongly against any team, unless it's just head and shoulders above the competition, winning 4 and losing 2 World Series in an 8 year period. Rivera was their trump card.
Hell, I notice you're cherrypicking and only mentioning Rivera's saves in what, on paper, were close series. You basically whitewash his contribution in the 2000 World Series, because the Yankees presumably won easily in 5, when he (i) threw a scoreless 9th down 3-2, threw a scoreless 10th, allowing the Yankees to win Game 1 in 12; (ii) got the last out in Game 2 after coming in with the tying run on deck (granted, after giving up a HR to make it a one-run game); (iii) threw two shutout innings to close out a 3-2 win in Game 4; and (iv) preserved a 2-run lead with a scoreless 9th in Game 5. His WPA as 0.7 in that 5-game series, plus in the Oakland series that year his saves (2 run wins ... YAWN!), were (A) 6 outs, coming in with a 1-run lead, followed by (B) 5 outs, coming in with the tying run at the plate -- combined WPA of 0.45 in those 2 games. He had a 0.63 against the Indians in '98.
I'm not saying you can't make your case, but you seem to be relying on the argument that he was perfect when they didn't need him, as evidenced by the fact that they won easily, though they won easily in no small part because he was perfect.
Right, but if you give him a blown save in each and every one of those 3-0, 4-0, and 4-1 series, which is unlikely for any closer, they still are very likely to win them all.
He was very valuable, but not necessary to victory.
1998: beat Tex. 3-0, Cle 4-2 (only 1 save-2-run lead for Mo), SD 4-0
1999: beat Tex. 3-0, Bos 4-1, Atl 4-0
2000: beat Oak. 3-2 (2 2-run saves), Sea 4-2 (1 2-run save), NYM 4-1.
Replace Rivera with John Wetteland (which was a very real possibility) and I'm 95% confident the Yankees win all 3 World Series titles. Mo's perfection really wasn't critical.
I'm not so sure about replacing him with Wetteland those last two years.
1999: Wetteland's ERA 3.68 - Rivera's ERA 1.83 (postseason 0.00)
2000: Wetteland's ERA 4.20 - Rivera's ERA 2.85 (postseason 0.00 in the DS; 1.93 in the LCS; 3.00 in the WS, with all the damage in one game where he still got the final out)
I'm not saying he's the reason for all their championships. They were the best team in baseball for just about all of those years ... sure you can win 1 or 2 without any given player. The odds are strongly against any team, unless it's just head and shoulders above the competition, winning 4 and losing 2 World Series in an 8 year period. Rivera was their trump card.
Hell, I notice you're cherrypicking and only mentioning Rivera's saves in what, on paper, were close series. You basically whitewash his contribution in the 2000 World Series, because the Yankees presumably won easily in 5, when he (i) threw a scoreless 9th down 3-2, threw a scoreless 10th, allowing the Yankees to win Game 1 in 12; (ii) got the last out in Game 2 after coming in with the tying run on deck (granted, after giving up a HR to make it a one-run game); (iii) threw two shutout innings to close out a 3-2 win in Game 4; and (iv) preserved a 2-run lead with a scoreless 9th in Game 5. His WPA as 0.7 in that 5-game series, plus in the Oakland series that year his saves (2 run wins ... YAWN!), were (A) 6 outs, coming in with a 1-run lead, followed by (B) 5 outs, coming in with the tying run at the plate -- combined WPA of 0.45 in those 2 games. He had a 0.63 against the Indians in '98.
I'm not saying you can't make your case, but you seem to be relying on the argument that he was perfect when they didn't need him, as evidenced by the fact that they won easily, though they won easily in no small part because he was perfect.
Exactly. And what makes Rivera even more important is that the odds against being able successfully to replace him with a comparable reliever for 13 (or 14, if you count 1996) straight years are so great as to be nearly nonexistent, especially if you throw in his postseasons. That's what makes him so incredibly unusual and special, even if we all acknowledge that a position player or starter of comparable talent is more valuable, and even if we acknowledge that in any given year, there will likely be a handful of relievers who are nearly as good or better. But let's see how Papelbon and K-Rod look at the end of their careers; let's see if they've performed as well in every single year as Mo has.
I'm not questioning the value of his career, he's the best reliever ever.
The point being argued was value in the title run (1996-2000). What he did after has no bearing on the number of WS the Yankees have won.
OK, but I don't understand why you keep arguing against Rivera by citing that they won their series so overwhelmingly in 1998 through 2000. Doesn't that undercut the argument that ANY YANKEE was the most important/valuable? How does that argument make the case for Jeter, O'Neill, Bernie, Pettite, and Cone being more important/valuable? Hell, they won so overwhelmingly in '98 and '99, despite the fact that Jeter was awful in the '98 postseason and despite the fact that neither Bernie nor O'Neill broke a .740 OPS in the '98 thru '00 postseasons. Pettitte had a good ERA those years, but he allowed 97 baserunners in 69 innings.
You seem to be relying on the assumption that sweeping or winning 4 out of 5 suggests that there weren't many high leverage innings in which Rivera was needed, but a review of the entire postseason record those years (including some of those sweeps and 4-1 series) shows otherwise. If he blew a save or two in the 1998 Cleveland series or the 2000 Oakland series, it becomes doubtful that they would have gotten the opportunity to take 4 of 4 from the Padres or 4 of 5 from the Mets.
isn't that kinda the point, Rivera had no more value than any Yankee and if you insist on saying someone was more valuable then why not go with someone that figured in a little more of the game. I mean in the 2000 series Jeter posted .409 .480 .864 1.344, 6 out of 19 runs scored.
It did in 2001.
I don't understand why there's this need for people on this site to prove their brilliance by arguing against the value of a closer.
Saves are meaningless. Shitty Todd Jonesian closers are worthless.
But great multi-inning closers, like playoff Rivera, are incredibly valuable. Hell, Rivera comes in the 8th every so often in the regular season in high leveage situations, mostly in high leverage games (against Boston and in recent years, Tampa).
Rivera will give you 7 or 8 IP in a 7 game series. Those IP are the highest leverage innings. His post-season ERA is 0.77.
The typical late-inning pitcher type (high K, high BB, 4-seamer) is particularly vulnerable to a top AL lineup (high HR/FB ratio, high BB/PA). The effective difference b/w Rivera and, say, Tom Gordon or Phil Coke or Kyle Farnsworth in the 9th inning of a tie game against Boston in the ALCS is way more than the raw, full-season statistical difference between the two.
On top of that, based on how they've performed in the last season and a half I think Rivera's got a much better chance to last till his 40's than Jeter.
I'm not arguing Rivera vs Jeter, but it is interesting that in 2008 Mariano put up the best ERA, the best ERA+, and the lowest WHIP numbers of his entire career. And this year his WHIP number is his 5th best ever, and his strikeout to walk ratio is at his all-time high.
Well, Rivera is closer to 40, so he has a better chance from that perspective, but neither has slowed down this season. You'd think it'd be harder for an every day player, especially a shortstop to play regularly at an advanced age. On the other hand, it doesn't take that much to do in a pitcher's arm. If Jeter plays until he's 40, he's likely over 3500 hits, and might even have a shot at the 2nd most career hits by an AL player.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main