take it and don't look back, vernon. that's a lot of money, and if the market slows again (or you hit .270/.330/.450) next year, you could feel like juan gone a few years back if you turn this down.

Hmm... Maybe a year too long, but as long as he stays productive and in centerfield, it seems like a good deal for both sides.

I hope he takes it - I like it when quality players stay with the team that drafted them.

$126/7 years. Put me in coach, I'm ready to play.

Tell ya what, even if I thought I could get 8/$160 next year, I take this money and run. Something about being set for life. A lot of bad can happen in a year.

So much for the "We aren't going to give him Beltran money" talk.

If I were Wells, I would wait for free agency.

I concur with Studes' study that this is just the tip of the iceberg. The Big Market Clubs, except the Cubs, haven't offered big contracts yet to FAs because this year's crop wasn't franchise quality.

I think Wells gets 150M+ if he waits for next winter.

The Big Market Clubs, except the Cubs, haven't offered big contracts yet to FAs because this year's crop wasn't franchise quality.

Or because the luxury tax and their already swollen payrolls limit their ability to do so.

For a second, I thought it was David Wells.

Maybe ask for another year at the same $, so his total value is more than an inferior and older player. And there's no telling how high his value will be in another year.

But this would be very hard to pass up. There's no guarantee Wells stays healthy or hits as well as in 2006.

Or because the luxury tax and their already swollen payrolls limit their ability to do so.

Speak fer your own club, elenchi. My team - The New York Mets - practice fiscal responsibility. We care about our future generations.

When J.P. became a GM, did anyone think he would ever be dishing out the contract he gave to Burnett, Ryan and the ones he offered to Lilly, Meche, and Wells?

Unless Wells just doesn't want to be in Toronto, I think it'd be very unwise not to accept this offer. As Kyle said, if he gets hurt next year, or if he hits the way he did in 2004 or 2005, I don't think anyone is going to offer him 7 years at $18 mil per. And unless he improves on his numbers from last year, I also don't think the offer would be boosted up past the 8/$160 range. I don't think there's reason to have much confidence Wells repeats his 2006 numbers. And even if there was, this offer would make him more than set for life. Why risk that?

When J.P. became a GM, did anyone think he would ever be dishing out the contract he gave to Burnett, Ryan and the ones he offered to Lilly, Meche, and Wells?

"I sure missed the bullet on Wells." - J.P. after losing Wells to FA

I can't imagine not taking that offer. The upside is what, an extra 20 million or so, but the downside is over $100 million. First, try and get them to up the offer, but he has to take it.

I can't imagine not taking that offer. The upside is what, an extra 20 million or so, but the downside is over $100 million. First, try and get them to up the offer, but he has to take it.

The question is what are the likelihoods of the various events?

I think he's going to pass. The upside is another $75M or so, not just $20M. After Carlos Lee got $17M/year through age 36, would anyone be surprised to see Wells get $20M/year through the same age?

I think Wells gets 150M+ if he waits for next winter.

who is out there to give him that? Its a limited market as the Yanks, Mets, Cubs and Angels all have CFers now. Texas? You think Hicks is going to sign another 150 million dollar player?

The Cubs have a CFer? You don't think that LAA or NYY would gladly move their CFer if Wells asked them to? You're also missing the LAD and BOS.

In a world where HOU can offer 100M, Hicks can easily offer 150M.

Trust me, the money is out there. You'll see next winter.

I'll give J.P. credit for this one.

When J.P. became a GM, did anyone think he would ever be dishing out the contract he gave to Burnett, Ryan and the ones he offered to Lilly, Meche, and Wells?

Aren't we still paying Corey Koskie, too?

Remember when the $18M they were paying for Delgado's .330 EqA was the reason the team couldn't compete?

Don't do it, Vern. Come home to Texas next year. We love you, man.

I hope Wells stays with the Blue Jays...if not, he can always come to San Diego next year after Cameron leaves as a FA.

Did I miss the part where Wells became a franchise player?

See #19 and #20, SJ, the demand is there. And where there's demand, the checkbook is never far behind...

Did I miss the part where Wells became a franchise player?

Apparently.

I don't see why Wells wouldn't hit as well as he did last year. This is a lot of money though, I'm wondering if it might be better to trade him, pocked the $18 million a year, and get 2 good prospects in return. But he is the MVP of the team.

Next winter, Wells will face competition on the free agent center fielder market from Andruw Jones. I don't know to what extent that will affect his market value, but it surely will be a factor. I think Wells' best option is to take this offer.

. The Niekro Leagues Posted: December 13, 2006 at 12:10 PM (#2260159)

For a second, I thought it was David Wells.

you beat me to it--that's what I thought when I first read the headline

fiscal insanity indeed

I also partly worry that he hits more like 2004 and 2005 Wells, which is kind of similar to Torri Hunter.

And somewhere Andruw Jones smiles.

I'll bet JP takes the offer off the table in 48 hours, and then blasts Wells in the media for being selfish. The team needed an answer quick so that they could chart their course the rest of this FA season, and didn't have time to wait for him to decide if he could live on $126M. They're trying to beat the Yankees and the Red Sox, dammit!

The whole point of the offer is probably to make Wells look bad.

The reason why Wells might not hit as well as he did last year is because in 2005 he hit .269/.320/.463 and in 2004 he hit .272/.337/.472. Either of those lines combined with Wells' defense would make almost any team happy, but they make him less than a franchise player. Just because he is 27 doesn't necessarily mean that the improvement is real. It could be, but if it's not or if he gets seriously hurt, he's probably not getting $127 million anymore. That's too much money to risk when there's any real chance that you might lose it. Even if on average he would make more waiting for free agency, this isn't something he gets multiple shots at. It's foolish to not accept the complete security that this offer would give him.

I'll bet JP takes the offer off the table in 48 hours, and then blasts Wells in the media for being selfish. The team needed an answer quick so that they could chart their course the rest of this FA season, and didn't have time to wait for him to decide if he could live on $126M. They're trying to beat the Yankees and the Red Sox, dammit!

You forgot the part where John Gibbons questions Vernon's manliness and challenges him to a duel.

I don't see why Wells wouldn't hit as well as he did last year.

I also partly worry that he hits more like 2004 and 2005 Wells

Errrr... which?

Well I'm split. No one really knows do they. It's a big deal if he won't hit like last year. But my gut says he can hit like 2006.

Don't do it, Vern. Come home to Texas next year. We love you, man.

Come home to Toronto, Michael. We love you man!

Like, this deal woudl suck if he hits just a decent 850-ish OPS...but I think he is a more mature p layer, and still young, 28, and Frank THomas and Glaus are behind him....the reason why I'm split is because thats a lot of money for this franchise to committ, and they better be sure about his talent level...but he can step it up I think, he has the talent and the determination.

I don't see why Wells wouldn't hit as well as he did last year.

2004 OPS - 809
2005 OPS - 783

That's two pretty good reasons.

Take the money.

And somewhere Andruw Jones smiles.

And Braves fans sigh and pray for Rocco.

Actually looking at his stats the better I feel about him and this deal. I think he should be the first statement: gonna tear up the ball next year, and hopefully for years to come.

Torii Hunter is another CF FA next year too, if I remember correctly...

Wells is as good of hitter as Soriano, a much better defensive player (unless turns out to be a plus centerfielder, which is unlikely), and probably close in baserunning. And he's about 3 years younger. I think it's a better contract then Soriano's at least.

For a second, I thought it was David Wells.

You're not the only one. I thought for a second that free agent pitching Armageddon had just come.

So at what point should he say yes without thinking? 7/140? That's 14 million dollars on the table.

All the hemming and hawing here just says to me Wells needs to hedge his bet a little - ask for 7 of it (7/133) and see what they say.

After I looked into it (thanks #39), it's terrible to say but this is a good deal for Toronto. I have a hard time thinking of Wells as being the second best CF in baseball, but looking backward over the last four years and projecting out (using RC/27) ... It's probably Beltran followed by either Sizemore or Wells and then Jones.

And as a Mets fan, Lastings Milledge just became an incredibly valuable commodity. I thought of Milledge as a Wells clone. Kind of makes the Haren deal less appealing now, even to me.

One major concern about Wells, this career split:



Best Regards

John

"August 1-end of season: .277/.321/.437"

Maybe he gets depressed when the Jays are out of it.

You know when the mets signed Beltran, s a Mets fan I was happy, but felt that they overpaid-

2 years later?
nope, didn't overpay

if Baseball simply resumes it's average salary increase rate (10%) over the next 2 years- he'll be a bargain

100 million dollar contracts will be like max contracts in basketball - commonplace.

prediction: salaries stop growing at 10% per year sometime in the very near future (within 5 years). predicting that to continue indefinitely is just silly, unless you think that major league baseball will be one of the key sectors of the american economy in 25 years.

Maybe he gets depressed when the Jays are out of it.

No, he still does well in June and July.

Ick. I don't like this from the Jays' perspective at all. Two OPS+ above 104 in his career at 131 126. I expect for the next 5 years he'll continue between 100 and 130 OPS+. Let's say he averages 115. With good D that's a valuable CF. I just don't see it as a franchise type of guy, which is the type of money JP is giving him. I would keep him for the year and pick up the picks when he signs somewhere else.

Maybe he gets depressed when the Jays are out of it.

Hey now, they finished second last year!

This is a great deal for Wells to take.....IF he would be happy staying in Toronto. That's no certainty.

Torii Hunter
Andruw Jones
Mike Cameron
Bobby Abreu
Milton Bradley
Pat Burrell
Adam Dunn
Jermaine Dye
Geoff Jenkins
Ichiro!
Corey Patterson
Aaron Rowand

are all FA next year according to Cot's site. I can't imagine in that class that VWells is entitled to a lot of money if he doesn't put up another 2006. And even if he does it isn't clear how much more he wins.

He should sign the deal ASAP.

prediction: salaries stop growing at 10% per year sometime in the very near future (within 5 years). predicting that to continue indefinitely is just silly, unless you think that major league baseball will be one of the key sectors of the american economy in 25 years.

Well, I guess the entire 100+ year history of the sport is nothing but silly. You're assuming the growth in salaries correlates to revenue growth, whereas in fact some of the past growth has come (I'm pretty sure) from players snagging a growing proportion of gross revenues at the owners' expense.

Also, one thing that makes this offer more appealing to the Jays relative to what Vernon's potential suitors could offer next year is that Toronto is offering him the deal (as I understand it) starting in '07, so you presumably subtract the $5.6 million he already had coming from the value of the Toronto offer, and factor in the fact that they're effectively guaranteeing Wells one less year of his career than any free-agent suitor would be with a seven-year deal starting in 2008.

The Jays HAD to make an offer like this to insulate themselves from public heat if Wells turns them down and they have to deal him. And from the sound of things, Vernon is not jumping for joy just yet.

This is pretty exciting stuff! The Blue Jays could spend $126 million on Wells, and as a result they won't change the AL East standing a whit, because the NYY and the Boston Red Sox are spending $200 million next year, counting the Matsuzaka posting fee.

I'm sure Vernon is as tired of the non-competitive checkbook baseball played in the AL East as we all are, and will be heading to Texas next year.

So do you propose that the Yankees and Red Sox screw over their fans by refusing to spend the revenue that those fans have been so generously giving them?

Vernon Wells - LESS clutch than Alex Rodriguez. I didn't even think that was possible.

THis is what I would do if I were Jays GM.

Trade Vernon Wells for Aaron Heilman and Phillip Humber.
Make Heilman a starter. (Rotation solved).
Have $25 million free to spend this year, and $18 the next 7 years. Seeing as there is no one left on the market, and the team's hitting just went down, I'd take on all of Pat Burrell's contract and give practically no prospects back in return because Gillick is so desperate to get rid of him.
I'd cut John McDonald and/or Royce Clayton, and sign Ronnie Belliard (or less realistically Marcus Giles) to solidify the lineup even more. Now I have a dominant lineup. I have some financial flexibility ($5 million this year, an extra $10 next year), and my pitching got a whole lot better for years to come, and my offence perhaps improves with Burrell AND Belliard coming in.

I have to imagine they can get more than Heilman and Humber for Vernon Wells.

Trade Vernon Wells for Aaron Heilman and Phillip Humber.

That would be a hard trade to turn down for the Mets. Although it would suck if the Mets gave up Humber and then lost Wells to FA.

Why not Milledge rather than Humber? Seems to me that Milledge would make sense as the heir to Wells.

All the better. THen get 3 of them: Heilman, Humber and Milledge.

I did this theory based on realism, not making those outlandish trades. I think those guys are great prospects right? I mean, getting Wells is saving $15 million next year for the winning team in value....I just wasn't sure HOW good those guys are in terms of value or how Minaya's mind really works. More prospects, all the better. Isn't Humber really good though?

All the better. THen get 3 of them: Heilman, Humber and Milledge.


If I were Omar, I wouldn't do that deal. That's too much to give up for 1 yr of Wells.

(Whistling ........ bibigon, Artist, come out of the shadows .....)

I think those guys are great prospects right?

Don't encourage Mets fans by calling those guys great prospects.

As a Blue Jay fan I'm conflicted about this offer. On the one hand the Vernon Wells of last year is pretty close to irreplaceable and I'd much rather have him than Soriano. On the other hand at some point the Blue Jays are going to run out of money and if you combine the saved money with the potential return on a deal and it becomes difficult to decide. Signing him is better than not signing him however trying to trade him might be the best idea of all. The problem is that if you try hard to trade him you probably won't be able to sign him afterwards which means then you are forced to choose between the two lesser options of trading him for less or keeping him and not signing him. In this situation I'm conservative and in favour of any resolution that avoids the worst options (a bad trade or losing him to free agency). Which is a long way of saying I'm glad JP is making a good offer here and I hope Wells takes it.

That's a horrible trade for the Mets. Wells is a career .288/.336/.492 hitter which is very good for a CF but not that special for a corner outfielder and the Mets already have Beltran. His highest career OBP is .359. Trading all of that for one year of Wells is crazy. Maybe if the Mets had a gaping hole in CF, I could understand it but the Mets already have one of the best in the business. In addition, Shea stadium would be a horrible park for Wells.

Russlan, I agree that Wells is probably a better fit somewhere else. But he's still a good player. Good players can contribute anywhere. He's been a consistent 25 Win Share performer.

I wouldn't give up Heilman/Milledge/Humber for him. But Heilman/Humber or Heilman/Milledge would be awfully tempting.

Wells would still give you an exceptional corner OFer. He's above average speed, so in theory he could hit in the #2 hole. He helps you in the basepaths. And he's always healthy and generally a good clubhouse guy AFAIK. He would be a marked offensive upgrade over Nady or Green, assuring that our offense would be even better than last year's.

The only issue is that the Mets would need to resign him at about 120-160M before he hits FA. With F-Mart and Gomez coming down the pipeline, that's a major commitment. This scenario probably won't be realistic until the trading deadline, and by that time, we'll have a better idea of Milledge and Gomez...

Who's better Pelfrey or Humber? I'm not big on Milledge.