Despite my decrying of many of my fellow RSN member assertions that Bard is the second coming of Christ...Im certainly not ready to part with him to take a chance on a guy who had a 74 OPS+ last year.

As for Mazz. He's Fredo. He's dead to me.

He does bear some resemblance to John Cazale.

Am I wrong for thinking Bowden > Gomez?

Am I wrong for thinking Bowden > Gomez?

I think that's defensible. Gomez probably has higher upside if he were going to put everything together, but I think Bowden is more likely to actually produce. It's kind of surprising that Melvin wouldn't be interested at least, given what Melvin has said about looking for pitching. Of course if he thinks Hardy was worth either Buchholz or Bard, I think he's going to have a hard time finding someone to trade with.

Bowden was pretty bad in 2009, I'm sure there's a lot of teams that think he has pretty negligible value

3. Miss Remember Posted: November 06, 2009 at 11:30 PM (#3381661)
Am I wrong for thinking Bowden > Gomez?

Nah, I'm not even a Red Sox fan and that was my assumption - Bowden seems as if he could be a decent back-end starter in the NL right now, with the upside of a #3. Gomez definitely has a higher ceiling, but he doesn't seem like he ever learnt to hit.

Bowden is still pretty young so there's time for him to develop, but his stuff isn't that great.

Gomez can't hit and will probably never hit, but he can play above average defense and run fast around the bases (were he to get on). So there's actually a spot for him on a ML roster, whereas with Bowden we don't quite know yet.

But Bard and Buchholz are obviously both far more valuable than Gomez (and Hardy). So not surprised to see Melvin ask for these (and be turned down).

i'm thinking mike cameron will be hermidia's platoon partner if bay or holiday don't get signed. not really a hardy comment, but i couldn't find a posting of the hermidia trade.

Despite my decrying of many of my fellow RSN member assertions that Bard is the second coming of Christ...Im certainly not ready to part with him to take a chance on a guy who had a 74 OPS+ last year.

And had a 113 OPS+ the year before that? And plays shortstop? And is 27 and arbitration-eligible?

And had a 113 OPS+ the year before that? And plays shortstop? And is 27 and arbitration-eligible?

Money Schmoney. And as I said elsewhere...Im not taking a chance on that with the stuff Bard has, especially since Hardy would be moving to the AL Beast. If Bard goes, it's going to be to some putz (heh heh) like Omar Minaya for something very shiny.

I don't really think it's "obvious" that Bard is more valuable than Hardy. I'd definitely rather have Bowden than Gomez.

Well, all I wanted to hear was that the Red Sox made an attempt for Hardy. Good enough for me.

I guess, with incomplete information on Hardy's health and so on, I can't determine what I would think of a Bard-for-Hardy trade, but I wouldn't take it as a given that Bard's more valuable. And if I were the Brewers, I'd definitely take Bowden over Gomez, who is a bucket of suck if ever there was one.

The Red Sox have continued their tinker-the-hell out of any young pitcher coming up through their system. With Lester, it was having him pitch without his cutter (IIRC), for Buchholz it was to rework his delivery, and for Bowden they decided that he needed to add a slider. No level of success (even throwing ML no hitters) is great enough that the Sox aren't sure they can "fix" you. I hope that this year Bowden, like Buchholz, will abandon the new plan and revert to what made him excellent throughout his minor league tenure.


I have to say, I can't fathom a world in which Carlos Gomez has more value than Dan Bard (or Bowden for that matter).

Just as well for the Sox and Hardy. If the Sox had gotten him, obviously given the Sox's recent SS curse, Hardy's career would be over by the end of 2010 and the Sox would be searching for a new SS. It's now possible for Hardy to bounce back. With the Sox, his one year decline would have become a career collapse.

Jeez. Two teams make a trade, and the longer-lived thread here is about the Red Sox' non-involvement therein. You guys really need to get a life.

I’d have done Bard for Hardy myself

Please keep your fingers out of the pudding. You'll ruin it.

Jeez. Two teams make a trade, and the longer-lived thread here is about the Red Sox' non-involvement therein. You guys really need to get a life.

?

Other thread: 100 posts. This thread: 18 posts.

I'm not sure Bard is that valuable..

Y'all are suffering from a disease that, as a Yankee fan, I call Chamberlainitis. I had it too. It's really easily to get suckered in by a rookie who has mega-velocity. But if that mega-velocity is that rookie's primary skill, because of the basically inexorable downward trend of velocity after Year X, at some point, be it Year X+2 or Year X+3, the velocity will dip from otherworldy to merely excellent. And then, if that pitcher doesn't have at least one good pitch to complement that fastball, he'll get hit pretty good.

Billy Wagner lasted forever b/c once he dropped down to 97ish, he had a killer slider to mix in. But a lot of the ultra-hard throwers have very short periods of success.

EDIT: I should add, I think Bard's very good, but not great statistics for a short reliever who throws a legit 101 are prima facie evidence that he doesn't yet have a good complementary pitch.

I hope that this year Bowden, like Buchholz, will abandon the new plan and revert to what made him excellent throughout his minor league tenure.


Have you considered the end results with the other pitchers you mentioned, by chance? Just a thought.

i'm thinking mike cameron will be hermidia's platoon partner if bay or holiday don't get signed.

Why would you think Mike Cameron would accept the 250 or so atbats that come with the short end of a platoon? He's going to be somebody's everyday center fielder. He might get only a 1-2 year because of his age, but I don't think there's any way he takes a pay cut. There isn't much competition on the free agent market for center fielders.

Why would you think Mike Cameron would accept the 250 or so atbats that come with the short end of a platoon?

Because he's the same sort of person who think that Joe Mauer will be available for Jonathan Van Every, Jed Lowrie, and a bloody sock.

Because he's the same sort of person who think that Joe Mauer will be available for Jonathan Van Every, Jed Lowrie, and a bloody sock.

Take out the sock.

Because he's the same sort of person who think that Joe Mauer will be available for Jonathan Van Every, Jed Lowrie, and a bloody sock.

Hey, nobody ever claimed that trade would be possible. At least not until Van Every proves that he's an upgrade over Jason Bay, which he inevitably will given playing time.

Other thread: 100 posts. This thread: 18 posts.

Well, this a.m. when I got outta bed, this thread was on Hot Topix and the other wasn't. I said "longer lived." Still you're right, that was misleading.

But Bard and Buchholz are obviously both far more valuable than Gomez (and Hardy). So not surprised to see Melvin ask for these (and be turned down).

My thoughts exactly.

Y'all are suffering from a disease that, as a Yankee fan, I call Chamberlainitis. I had it too. It's really easily to get suckered in by a rookie who has mega-velocity. But if that mega-velocity is that rookie's primary skill, because of the basically inexorable downward trend of velocity after Year X, at some point, be it Year X+2 or Year X+3, the velocity will dip from otherworldy to merely excellent. And then, if that pitcher doesn't have at least one good pitch to complement that fastball, he'll get hit pretty good.

Chamberlainitis - great term. It is a fair warning. I don't recall Joba's secondary pitch when he was blowing away batters as a set-up guy; but Bard has a pretty good slider which for him works as a change-up. The stats are partly due to some rough outings earlier in the year - he made great progress as the year went on.

I'm glad the Sox are shopping but not overpaying. I am willing to live with a stopgaps until we know whether Lowrie can be healthy and productive over an entire season and/or Inglesias is ready. Given the great reports on Inglesias' fielding, if he can hit .240 in the majors, I'd hand him the job should Lowrie prove unable.

Dodgers will trade Furcal for Bard, and Lowrie. Well, I would.

I don't recall Joba's secondary pitch when he was blowing away batters as a set-up guy

Slider, and IMO it was better than his fastball.

Slider, and IMO it was better than his fastball.

He also has a very good curve. That's why he's in the rotation. Even if his velocity sits in the 92-95 range as a SP (it was back up at 96 in post-season RP appearances) Joba has the pitches to be a very, very good SP. He just needs to learn to pitch.

He also has a very good curve. That's why he's in the rotation. Even if his velocity sits in the 92-95 range as a SP (it was back up at 96 in post-season RP appearances) Joba has the pitches to be a very, very good SP. He just needs to learn to pitch.

I liked his changeup this year as well, and IIRC, it was considered his best offspeed pitch when he was drafted. His command obviously needs to improve a ton, and I thought his fastball at lower velocities looked too... straight as well.

Why would you think Mike Cameron would accept the 250 or so atbats that come with the short end of a platoon? He's going to be somebody's everyday center fielder.

I agree with this. Cameron is a personal favorite (has been both a Red and a Padre). I think he is 1-2 years away from a bench role.

TFA is pretty vague; seems like the Bard/Buchholz details could reflect discussions two months ago rather than anything recent.

Cameron in CF, Ellsbury in LF, Hermida in AAA (apparently he has options) could work.

I agree with #12. Glad to hear the Sox were in the discussion, disappointing to hear that the tenor of said discussion was bat-#### craziness from Melvin. I wouldn't do Bard for Hardy, and certainly not Buchholz. Bowden maybe, grudgingly. But they're all three sure as hell better than Carlos Gomez.

He's going to be somebody's everyday center fielder. He might get only a 1-2 year because of his age, but I don't think there's any way he takes a pay cut

Cameron made $10MM last year! I think he'll be someone's starting CF and I think he'll take a pay cut.

EDIT: He was better than I thought last year. Fangraphs says he was worth $19.4, 4.3 WAR.

Re: 33

I thought 12 was being sarcastic, referring to the "Sox were involved, but couldn't make a deal" stuff that comes out after every non-Red Sox trade the last year and a half. Jack O made a humorous reference to it on Simmons' latest podcast.

Oh, funny. I took it at face value because it happens to, in this case, exactly describe how I felt about it.

Cameron in CF, Ellsbury in LF, Hermida in AAA (apparently he has options) could work.

That's a serious offensive downgrade in an already weakened lineup, and I doubt they want to pay Hermida $3M to sit in AAA.

I know a lot of people who seem to be getting excited about the idea of Ellsbury in LF with Cameron in CF. It makes no sense to me. Jacoby Ellsbury has very little value in LF.

I know a lot of people who seem to be getting excited about the idea of Ellsbury in LF with Cameron in CF. It makes no sense to me. Jacoby Ellsbury has very little value in LF.

Take Ellsbury as a given and it makes a little more sense, I think. Barring Bay/Holliday, what's available at LF on the whole ranges from unexciting to downright unpalatable.

That's a serious offensive downgrade in an already weakened lineup, and I doubt they want to pay Hermida $3M to sit in AAA.

Especially if you factor in the possibility of the Sox giving up offense for defense at SS - unless Lowrie makes a serious comeback I think there's a definite chance that SS will be a zero in the lineup for the most part of 2010.

And then, if that pitcher doesn't have at least one good pitch to complement that fastball, he'll get hit pretty good.

I assume you have not seen Daniel Bard's curveball?

Ellsbury in LF would be only mildly palatable. Ellsbury/Cameron/Drew would be an all-world defensive outfield, but the offense would be averageish at best. I'd have to assume if that's on the table the Sox try and swing a trade for an infield bat.

That's a serious offensive downgrade in an already weakened lineup, and I doubt they want to pay Hermida $3M to sit in AAA.

I think you've got that sideways--he'd be going to AAA to play, not sit. Besides, it's the Red Sox; $3m to see if a former all-world prospect can develop is a pretty good investment for a rich team, especially with a weak FA market and an organizational weakness at corner OF. Better than paying a 25-year-old with potential $3m to play twice a week as 4th OF on the big club, anyway. Or $10m on John Smoltz and Brad Penny.

Cameron definitely means a big drop-off in OF offense, but to echo [39] there's not much out there. Combine it with a move for AGonz or Fielder (so AGonz/Cameron for Bay/Lowell), and the lineup wouldn't really suffer.

For a few years now Sox fans have assumed that KY could shift over to 3B and play every day if necessary to boost the offense, but I don't think it's same to assume that anymore. He didn't always look comfortable there this year in limited innings and it might be too late for a reverse spectrum shift

I'd like to see them just leave KY alone at 1B and go out and find a 3B who can throw some leather around to caddy for Lowell or replace him if he falls apart. In that scenario the offense would have to be upgraded with incremental gains at SS and the bench, a reasonable LF plan, and a full season of Martinez