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As for Mazz. He's Fredo. He's dead to me.
I think that's defensible. Gomez probably has higher upside if he were going to put everything together, but I think Bowden is more likely to actually produce. It's kind of surprising that Melvin wouldn't be interested at least, given what Melvin has said about looking for pitching. Of course if he thinks Hardy was worth either Buchholz or Bard, I think he's going to have a hard time finding someone to trade with.
Nah, I'm not even a Red Sox fan and that was my assumption - Bowden seems as if he could be a decent back-end starter in the NL right now, with the upside of a #3. Gomez definitely has a higher ceiling, but he doesn't seem like he ever learnt to hit.
Gomez can't hit and will probably never hit, but he can play above average defense and run fast around the bases (were he to get on). So there's actually a spot for him on a ML roster, whereas with Bowden we don't quite know yet.
But Bard and Buchholz are obviously both far more valuable than Gomez (and Hardy). So not surprised to see Melvin ask for these (and be turned down).
And had a 113 OPS+ the year before that? And plays shortstop? And is 27 and arbitration-eligible?
Money Schmoney. And as I said elsewhere...Im not taking a chance on that with the stuff Bard has, especially since Hardy would be moving to the AL Beast. If Bard goes, it's going to be to some putz (heh heh) like Omar Minaya for something very shiny.
I have to say, I can't fathom a world in which Carlos Gomez has more value than Dan Bard (or Bowden for that matter).
Please keep your fingers out of the pudding. You'll ruin it.
?
Other thread: 100 posts. This thread: 18 posts.
Y'all are suffering from a disease that, as a Yankee fan, I call Chamberlainitis. I had it too. It's really easily to get suckered in by a rookie who has mega-velocity. But if that mega-velocity is that rookie's primary skill, because of the basically inexorable downward trend of velocity after Year X, at some point, be it Year X+2 or Year X+3, the velocity will dip from otherworldy to merely excellent. And then, if that pitcher doesn't have at least one good pitch to complement that fastball, he'll get hit pretty good.
Billy Wagner lasted forever b/c once he dropped down to 97ish, he had a killer slider to mix in. But a lot of the ultra-hard throwers have very short periods of success.
EDIT: I should add, I think Bard's very good, but not great statistics for a short reliever who throws a legit 101 are prima facie evidence that he doesn't yet have a good complementary pitch.
Have you considered the end results with the other pitchers you mentioned, by chance? Just a thought.
Why would you think Mike Cameron would accept the 250 or so atbats that come with the short end of a platoon? He's going to be somebody's everyday center fielder. He might get only a 1-2 year because of his age, but I don't think there's any way he takes a pay cut. There isn't much competition on the free agent market for center fielders.
Because he's the same sort of person who think that Joe Mauer will be available for Jonathan Van Every, Jed Lowrie, and a bloody sock.
Take out the sock.
Hey, nobody ever claimed that trade would be possible. At least not until Van Every proves that he's an upgrade over Jason Bay, which he inevitably will given playing time.
Well, this a.m. when I got outta bed, this thread was on Hot Topix and the other wasn't. I said "longer lived." Still you're right, that was misleading.
My thoughts exactly.
Chamberlainitis - great term. It is a fair warning. I don't recall Joba's secondary pitch when he was blowing away batters as a set-up guy; but Bard has a pretty good slider which for him works as a change-up. The stats are partly due to some rough outings earlier in the year - he made great progress as the year went on.
I'm glad the Sox are shopping but not overpaying. I am willing to live with a stopgaps until we know whether Lowrie can be healthy and productive over an entire season and/or Inglesias is ready. Given the great reports on Inglesias' fielding, if he can hit .240 in the majors, I'd hand him the job should Lowrie prove unable.
Slider, and IMO it was better than his fastball.
He also has a very good curve. That's why he's in the rotation. Even if his velocity sits in the 92-95 range as a SP (it was back up at 96 in post-season RP appearances) Joba has the pitches to be a very, very good SP. He just needs to learn to pitch.
I liked his changeup this year as well, and IIRC, it was considered his best offspeed pitch when he was drafted. His command obviously needs to improve a ton, and I thought his fastball at lower velocities looked too... straight as well.
I agree with this. Cameron is a personal favorite (has been both a Red and a Padre). I think he is 1-2 years away from a bench role.
Cameron in CF, Ellsbury in LF, Hermida in AAA (apparently he has options) could work.
Cameron made $10MM last year! I think he'll be someone's starting CF and I think he'll take a pay cut.
EDIT: He was better than I thought last year. Fangraphs says he was worth $19.4, 4.3 WAR.
I thought 12 was being sarcastic, referring to the "Sox were involved, but couldn't make a deal" stuff that comes out after every non-Red Sox trade the last year and a half. Jack O made a humorous reference to it on Simmons' latest podcast.
That's a serious offensive downgrade in an already weakened lineup, and I doubt they want to pay Hermida $3M to sit in AAA.
Take Ellsbury as a given and it makes a little more sense, I think. Barring Bay/Holliday, what's available at LF on the whole ranges from unexciting to downright unpalatable.
That's a serious offensive downgrade in an already weakened lineup, and I doubt they want to pay Hermida $3M to sit in AAA.
Especially if you factor in the possibility of the Sox giving up offense for defense at SS - unless Lowrie makes a serious comeback I think there's a definite chance that SS will be a zero in the lineup for the most part of 2010.
I assume you have not seen Daniel Bard's curveball?
Ellsbury in LF would be only mildly palatable. Ellsbury/Cameron/Drew would be an all-world defensive outfield, but the offense would be averageish at best. I'd have to assume if that's on the table the Sox try and swing a trade for an infield bat.
I think you've got that sideways--he'd be going to AAA to play, not sit. Besides, it's the Red Sox; $3m to see if a former all-world prospect can develop is a pretty good investment for a rich team, especially with a weak FA market and an organizational weakness at corner OF. Better than paying a 25-year-old with potential $3m to play twice a week as 4th OF on the big club, anyway. Or $10m on John Smoltz and Brad Penny.
Cameron definitely means a big drop-off in OF offense, but to echo [39] there's not much out there. Combine it with a move for AGonz or Fielder (so AGonz/Cameron for Bay/Lowell), and the lineup wouldn't really suffer.
I'd like to see them just leave KY alone at 1B and go out and find a 3B who can throw some leather around to caddy for Lowell or replace him if he falls apart. In that scenario the offense would have to be upgraded with incremental gains at SS and the bench, a reasonable LF plan, and a full season of Martinez
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