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Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Boston Globe: Cafardo: Jacoby Ellsbury makes powerful impression

Or as old-timer Chicky the Clicker (picking his soppy wethead off the bar for the first time in 30-years) said last night when watching Jacoby Ellsbury..."Freddie Lynn is still playing?”

Every day you see this kid, you ask yourself, “Who is he? Haven’t I seen him before?” His speed, his demeanor . . . is he Johnny Damon? Maybe, but he has a better arm and he might have more speed.

When he hits home runs and plays a good center field and runs, is he Grady Sizemore? What an excellent finished product that would be.

The emerging power and offensive ability . . . Bernie Williams? Maybe, but this kid can steal far more bases.

“A little Damonesque,” said Red Sox manager Terry Francona. “He has the ability with two strikes to throw that emergency hack on you and stay alive. He has shown the ability to hit the ball out of the park. He can change the game with his legs.”

Yes, he is all that.

For now, we may just have to be satisfied with the fact that he’s Jacoby Ellsbury, and on nights like this, when he strokes two homers, ignites the winning rally with a bunt, and scores from first in the eighth on a double, maybe Ellsbury is better than the aforementioned center fielders. Maybe this kid is going to carve his own little place in the game and in Red Sox lore.

Repoz Posted: April 23, 2008 at 08:31 AM | 32 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralBoston

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   1. John DiFool2 Posted: April 23, 2008 at 08:58 AM (#2755511)
It's still early, but all those Pecota/Zips type projections seem very 'quaint' right now. I've had to lift my jaw off the floor too many times to count now, between him and Pedroia (and also Lowrie when he's been in there).
   2. DKDC Posted: April 23, 2008 at 09:08 AM (#2755518)
It's still early, but all those Pecota/Zips type projections seem very 'quaint' right now.

Those forecasts seemed very 'ambitious' 5 days ago when Ellsbury was batting .212/.386/.303.

As you said, it's early.
   3. Greg Schuler Posted: April 23, 2008 at 10:30 AM (#2755589)
Ellsbury is the best looking player I have seen come through Wilmington, DE in my time here. I missed out on Damon and Sweeney, but Beltran was here.
   4. Mister High Standards Posted: April 23, 2008 at 11:38 AM (#2755656)
I think he's a special player... though I'm not exactly unbiased.
   5. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: April 23, 2008 at 11:45 AM (#2755668)
Ellsbury is the best looking player I have seen come through Wilmington, DE in my time here.

Well, he certainly is dreamy.
   6. John DiFool2 Posted: April 23, 2008 at 11:54 AM (#2755674)
Those forecasts seemed very 'ambitious' 5 days ago when Ellsbury was batting .212/.386/.303.


As ridiculous it is to say, it could be much better. Jake has a 29.8% line drive percentage, but only a .295 BABIP despite that, and only a 5.9% infield hit percentage (had one last night, on the bunt). When he was hitting "only" .212, I checked those numbers last week, and it was like 32%/.265/0% for each of those three metrics. I knew then that he had to start seeing a huge spike in his BA, in the same way that a big round boulder on top of a hill eventually must start rolling downhill sooner or later. The BA likely will continue to go up, and that is on top of a huge spike in his walk rate, and now the homers. On both of them he just whipped the bat through the zone like it was a samurai sword, one at his eyebrows and the other at his shoetops. Now his iso walk and iso power rates may very well be at a seasonal high, I'll grant, but he's the real deal.
   7. Nick Warino Posted: April 23, 2008 at 12:10 PM (#2755701)
What are his career MLB numbers if you include 2007 regular season, postseason, and this year? Something like ~.350/.420/.520 with 19 SB/0(!) CS in 223 PA. He also has a 24-23 BB-K ratio. Kevin was right all along.
   8. Toby Posted: April 23, 2008 at 12:44 PM (#2755757)
Lynn? Damon? Williams? A few months ago I called him a 'poor man's Ichiro' and I stand by that comparison, except that maybe the man ain't all that poor.

To that end, I like the samurai sword ref, JDiF2.
   9. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: April 23, 2008 at 12:45 PM (#2755759)
Ellsbury is the best looking player I have seen come through Wilmington, DE in my time here. I missed out on Damon and Sweeney, but Beltran was here.


You also missed out on a 22-year-old Sal Fasano!

/sigh
   10. villageidiom Posted: April 23, 2008 at 01:36 PM (#2755827)
with 19 SB/0(!) CS

I asked this in a thread and/or Game Chatter a little while ago: What's the longest SB streak without getting caught to start a career? I still don't know, but here are some players I thought to look up:

Tim Raines: 27.
Davey Lopes: 17.
Marquis Grissom: 8.
Lou Brock: 5.
Ron LeFlore: 4.
Omar Moreno: 4.
Vince Coleman: 2.
Willie Wilson: 2.
Rickey Henderson: 1.
Joe Morgan: 1.
Jose Reyes: 1.
Kenny Lofton: 0. (He was CS on his first attempt.)
Maury Wills: 0. (CS on his first three attempts.)

Prince Fielder: 4.

Regardless, 19 (or 17) is impressive. So is scoring from second base on a wild pitch.
   11. Chip Posted: April 23, 2008 at 01:44 PM (#2755842)
I am not looking forward to an Edes-less Globe, because it means more Cafardo.
   12. Danny Posted: April 23, 2008 at 02:02 PM (#2755877)
Stephen Drew is at 12.
   13. DKDC Posted: April 23, 2008 at 02:19 PM (#2755903)
Mitchell Page: 26
   14. Dave Cyprian Posted: April 23, 2008 at 02:43 PM (#2755933)
Man last year I tried busting out the name "RoboBury" ... I might have to try again.
   15. chris p Posted: April 23, 2008 at 02:49 PM (#2755938)
i posted this in a couple places last night, but i just wanted to bring up those juan pierre comparisons and how absurd they were (and still are). he still has rookie edibility (and only 168 at bats) and has matched juan pierre's career high in home runs for a season twice. he'll probably pass pierre's career totals this year.
   16. SoSH U at work Posted: April 23, 2008 at 02:53 PM (#2755941)
he still has rookie edibility.


He's not just dreamy, but delicious.
   17. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: April 23, 2008 at 03:03 PM (#2755952)
You know who really has edibility? Coco Crisp, that's who.
   18. chris p Posted: April 23, 2008 at 03:09 PM (#2755963)
the downside to firefox spell check.
   19. Greg Schuler Posted: April 23, 2008 at 03:18 PM (#2755970)
Of course Jed Lowrie was on that same team and many of us attending Blue Rocks games swore up and down he was a terrible shortstop. And he was for that season. So take my scouting skills for they are worth - exactly nothing. Even if I did recommend Rick Croushure to that Cardinals scout. I knew he'd make it, yes I did.

I should add that I was forutnate enough to see the Ken Harvey experience. He was HUGE, which I figured would be hard to maintain on a minor league payscale.
   20. Darren Posted: April 24, 2008 at 10:16 PM (#2758303)
Based on his minor league stats, the comparison to Pierre was quite reasonable, especially as a downside for Ellsbury. He's never shown this kind of power in the minors and it's not like he's 19 and still growing. You want to talk about absurd? How about Sizemore, who is a very, very different type of hitter than Ellsbury, even if Ellsbury keeps up his big jump in production. Bernie Williams also seems silly.

I still like the Lofton comparison for his reasonable upside.
   21. Robert Machemer Posted: April 24, 2008 at 10:29 PM (#2758315)
I'm still standing by "Brett Butler" as my patented WFG comp.
   22. AROM wants you off his lawn Posted: April 24, 2008 at 10:29 PM (#2758316)
Lofton and Damon are good comparisons. He's a good player but he's not going to have middle of the order power like Bernie or Grady. It was a lucky game. Big freaking deal, he's still 1 shy of Freddie Patek's best HR game.

How do I know? Because minor league stats are not meaningless.
   23. Darren Posted: April 24, 2008 at 10:38 PM (#2758319)
Lucky makes it sound like the HRs bounced off someone's head. He crushed them.

More accurate to say it was a great game, but it was just one game.
   24. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: April 24, 2008 at 10:52 PM (#2758328)
There was a report in midseason last year that the Red Sox were making Ellsbury work on driving the ball more, expecting him to hit for more power. So we do have some evidence for suggesting that Ellsbury is doing something differently this year that could lead to discontinuity between his major league and minor league stats.

From watching him, he has legitimate power potential in that swing - I'm surprised, if he was swinging like that in the minors, that he hit so few homers. I think Darren's Kenny Lofton comp is right on.
   25. Darren Posted: April 24, 2008 at 10:59 PM (#2758332)
That was the weird thing about last year, MC. He was hitting for no power in the minors, came up and immediately hit for power. He went back down, and again no power. Back up, and power's back. It made me think that there was some disconnect between the coaching at the minor league and major league levels (prompting my guess that he was being "Sadlerized" or something like that).

I agree that his swing looks like it would produce a lot more power than we saw in his minor league numbers.
   26. Darren Posted: April 24, 2008 at 11:00 PM (#2758333)
Still can't believe no one picked up Lofton this year, BTW. He'd be a good fit for the Cubs if they're not happy with their current CFs. Would have been good for the Reds since they decided Bruce wasn't ready yet.
   27. Dan Posted: April 24, 2008 at 11:11 PM (#2758338)
I was under the impression that Lofton's defense had declined to the point where he wasn't a legitimate starter in CF.
   28. Darren Posted: April 24, 2008 at 11:33 PM (#2758346)
I hadn't heard that, Dan. I had heard that Lofton felt like he was getting only low-ball and/or bench-role offers so he didn't sign with anyone.
   29. bibigon Posted: April 24, 2008 at 11:43 PM (#2758349)
PrOPS is my one strand of hope for why to be really optimistic about Ellsbury. It filters out a lot of the luck, which makes early season results especially misleading. Looking at him by components, he's at .355/.494/.595. He's obviously not going to hit .355 or anything, but like .310-.320 is plausible.
   30. Dan Posted: April 24, 2008 at 11:56 PM (#2758352)
I know Dewan's plus/minus rankings have rated Lofton as pretty terrible in CF the last few years, but I forget if there were any other metrics I had seen that on as well.
   31. Crispix Attacks Posted: April 25, 2008 at 12:05 AM (#2758354)
I guess Lofton's waiting until someone gets injured and he can be a starter.

That shouldn't be any better for his ego, but at least if and when he signs he will be assured of playing time.
   32. Danny Posted: April 25, 2008 at 12:35 AM (#2758359)
PrOPS is my one strand of hope for why to be really optimistic about Ellsbury

That might be balanced out by his .289/.337/.432 PrOPS from 2007.

I know Dewan's plus/minus rankings have rated Lofton as pretty terrible in CF the last few years, but I forget if there were any other metrics I had seen that on as well.


Here's what UZR says in runs per 150 games:

2003: -5
2004: 12
2005: 3
2006: -19
2007: 16 (only through June)

By plain ZR, he's been well below his career average since 2004.
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