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Those forecasts seemed very 'ambitious' 5 days ago when Ellsbury was batting .212/.386/.303.
As you said, it's early.
Well, he certainly is dreamy.
As ridiculous it is to say, it could be much better. Jake has a 29.8% line drive percentage, but only a .295 BABIP despite that, and only a 5.9% infield hit percentage (had one last night, on the bunt). When he was hitting "only" .212, I checked those numbers last week, and it was like 32%/.265/0% for each of those three metrics. I knew then that he had to start seeing a huge spike in his BA, in the same way that a big round boulder on top of a hill eventually must start rolling downhill sooner or later. The BA likely will continue to go up, and that is on top of a huge spike in his walk rate, and now the homers. On both of them he just whipped the bat through the zone like it was a samurai sword, one at his eyebrows and the other at his shoetops. Now his iso walk and iso power rates may very well be at a seasonal high, I'll grant, but he's the real deal.
To that end, I like the samurai sword ref, JDiF2.
You also missed out on a 22-year-old Sal Fasano!
/sigh
I asked this in a thread and/or Game Chatter a little while ago: What's the longest SB streak without getting caught to start a career? I still don't know, but here are some players I thought to look up:
Tim Raines: 27.
Davey Lopes: 17.
Marquis Grissom: 8.
Lou Brock: 5.
Ron LeFlore: 4.
Omar Moreno: 4.
Vince Coleman: 2.
Willie Wilson: 2.
Rickey Henderson: 1.
Joe Morgan: 1.
Jose Reyes: 1.
Kenny Lofton: 0. (He was CS on his first attempt.)
Maury Wills: 0. (CS on his first three attempts.)
Prince Fielder: 4.
Regardless, 19 (or 17) is impressive. So is scoring from second base on a wild pitch.
He's not just dreamy, but delicious.
I should add that I was forutnate enough to see the Ken Harvey experience. He was HUGE, which I figured would be hard to maintain on a minor league payscale.
I still like the Lofton comparison for his reasonable upside.
How do I know? Because minor league stats are not meaningless.
More accurate to say it was a great game, but it was just one game.
From watching him, he has legitimate power potential in that swing - I'm surprised, if he was swinging like that in the minors, that he hit so few homers. I think Darren's Kenny Lofton comp is right on.
I agree that his swing looks like it would produce a lot more power than we saw in his minor league numbers.
That shouldn't be any better for his ego, but at least if and when he signs he will be assured of playing time.
That might be balanced out by his .289/.337/.432 PrOPS from 2007.
Here's what UZR says in runs per 150 games:
2003: -5
2004: 12
2005: 3
2006: -19
2007: 16 (only through June)
By plain ZR, he's been well below his career average since 2004.
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