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Saturday, October 10, 2009

Boston Globe: Playoff Odds Are With The Frequent Players

Theo Epstein on the practical implications of the playoffs being closer to a crapshoot than the regular season:

“In our mission statement, part of it is we want to operate with a long-term view to put ourselves in a position to win 95 games and get in the playoffs as often as we possibly can. Now we’ve done it six out of seven years. Part of the thinking is that if you make the postseason multiple times, you improve your chances of making the World Series. Theoretically, if you’re in eight times, you’ll win one World Series. Well, we’ve been in five times. This is our sixth time in. The first five times in, we won two World Series. I’m not going to [complain] about that.

“I don’t believe in building a team with the season goal of winning the World Series, and the next year you look up, you’re old all of a sudden, you don’t have any options. ‘Now we’re a 75-win team. Hey, we won the World Series two years ago.’ It doesn’t work that way. We want to try to always operate with the broadest possible lens, so we have a solid foundation so that every year, or just about every year, we’ll be in a position to win 95 games and get in, and then trust our players, trust our manager, trust our coaching staff, trust our advanced scouting, trust our ability to perform under pressure to go win a World Series.’’

NaOH Posted: October 10, 2009 at 08:34 PM | 7 comment(s)
  Related News: SabermetricsBoston

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   1. TerpNats  Posted: October 10, 2009 at 07:54 PM (#3348109)
Uh, Theo, would you say that if you were the Marlins' GM?

Didn't think so, either.
   2. Mayor Blomberg  Posted: October 10, 2009 at 08:14 PM (#3348119)
Nothing to complain about 2 for 5, but the 0 for 11 on regression to the mean's gonna suck.

& John Schuerholz wants his other ring.
   3. Sweatpants  Posted: October 10, 2009 at 09:02 PM (#3348143)
Schuerholz has two rings - one from KC and one from Atlanta.
   4. Walt Davis  Posted: October 10, 2009 at 09:14 PM (#3348151)
Uh, Theo, would you say that if you were the Marlins' GM?

Would he say what? Do you think Beinfest wouldn't like to build a team that has a good chance to win 95 games every year?

Presumably you're saying that winning 95 a year is an achievable goal for the Red Sox because of their resources while it isn't for the Marlins, consequently the Marlins should try to pick their spots and maximize their chance when they've got that shot. Probably both Epstein and Beinfest would agree with you and I don't see anything in what Epstein said to suggest he wouldn't.

Unless you're arguing some sort of "crapshoot" angle but the Marlins are prime evidence of the crap-shooty nature of the playoffs.

On a quibble, neither of the Marlins teams that won the WS were particularly old. Neither were 95 win juggernauts either.

And let's not belittle Epstein's goal here -- there aren't many teams that put together long stretches of 95 wins a year (or averaging 95 over a long period of time). He's not shooting for 85 wins every year and hoping to win the AL Central now and again.
   5. Phil Coorey Needs To Know How To Kill A Cat  Posted: October 10, 2009 at 09:30 PM (#3348161)
I have no problems with the red sox winning 95 games a year. As long ad they keep making the playoffs
   6. saltyjohnson  Posted: October 10, 2009 at 09:45 PM (#3348169)
Comparing the RS to the marlins is a little unfair. I think that for a devoted small market, high profit concept the marlins have pretty much cornered the market, but they are more or less hoping for lightening strikes on the 5-7 year cycle that they make the playoffs. Theo is basically saying that their goal is to field a more-than-competitive team every year, and ride the wave of statistics. I think, and still continue to think, that the sox put the best playoff team on the field of all the contenders, so far they ran into hot pitching and cold hitting...what can you do?
   7. NaOH  Posted: October 11, 2009 at 01:27 AM (#3348237)
And let's not belittle Epstein's goal here -- there aren't many teams that put together long stretches of 95 wins a year (or averaging 95 over a long period of time). He's not shooting for 85 wins every year and hoping to win the AL Central now and again.

Not only is Epstein aiming high, as this comment notes, he's also being realistic about his circumstances. From 1996-2009 -- the fourteen 162-game seasons in the Wild Card era -- the Yankees have averaged 97.5 wins per year.

Averages wins from 1996-2009

AL EAST
New York: 98
Boston: 90
Toronto: 81
Baltimore: 74
Tampa: 69

AL CENTRAL
Cleveland: 84
White Sox: 84
Minnesota: 82
Detroit: 71
Royals: 68

AL WEST
Angels: 86
Oakland: 85
Seattle: 83
Texas: 80

Epstein appears to be taking into consideration the strength of the AL East and accounting for the possibility of a team in another division having a particularly strong season as competition for the Wild Card (e.g., 2001 Athletics). If Epstein's goal is simply to consistently shoot for a playoff spot and take his chances from there, he's not looking for the easiest way to October play, just the most likely route. And he seems to have pegged that at about 95 wins per year.
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