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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Saturday, October 10, 2009Boston Globe: Playoff Odds Are With The Frequent PlayersTheo Epstein on the practical implications of the playoffs being closer to a crapshoot than the regular season:
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Didn't think so, either.
& John Schuerholz wants his other ring.
Would he say what? Do you think Beinfest wouldn't like to build a team that has a good chance to win 95 games every year?
Presumably you're saying that winning 95 a year is an achievable goal for the Red Sox because of their resources while it isn't for the Marlins, consequently the Marlins should try to pick their spots and maximize their chance when they've got that shot. Probably both Epstein and Beinfest would agree with you and I don't see anything in what Epstein said to suggest he wouldn't.
Unless you're arguing some sort of "crapshoot" angle but the Marlins are prime evidence of the crap-shooty nature of the playoffs.
On a quibble, neither of the Marlins teams that won the WS were particularly old. Neither were 95 win juggernauts either.
And let's not belittle Epstein's goal here -- there aren't many teams that put together long stretches of 95 wins a year (or averaging 95 over a long period of time). He's not shooting for 85 wins every year and hoping to win the AL Central now and again.
Not only is Epstein aiming high, as this comment notes, he's also being realistic about his circumstances. From 1996-2009 -- the fourteen 162-game seasons in the Wild Card era -- the Yankees have averaged 97.5 wins per year.
Averages wins from 1996-2009
AL EAST
New York: 98
Boston: 90
Toronto: 81
Baltimore: 74
Tampa: 69
AL CENTRAL
Cleveland: 84
White Sox: 84
Minnesota: 82
Detroit: 71
Royals: 68
AL WEST
Angels: 86
Oakland: 85
Seattle: 83
Texas: 80
Epstein appears to be taking into consideration the strength of the AL East and accounting for the possibility of a team in another division having a particularly strong season as competition for the Wild Card (e.g., 2001 Athletics). If Epstein's goal is simply to consistently shoot for a playoff spot and take his chances from there, he's not looking for the easiest way to October play, just the most likely route. And he seems to have pegged that at about 95 wins per year.
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