Dice-K not worth the money. But Nick Green is. Papi isn't, but he was! And Julio Lugo's contract is just the worst. But then, the Bill Mueller deal was great! And how about Varitek?!? But JD Drew has not provided the ROI I would like.

Ugh - I don't get these pieces that try and figure out which contracts were good and which weren't. Best just to judge in the aggregate - I think the Red Sox brass and every other good front office recognize that some contracts, some trades, some free agent signings, will be better than others.

When he’s right, he’s an OK pitcher.

That just isn't accurate.

When is he is right he one of the top 30 starters in baseball. Does he have success through unconventional means? Nible...nible...nible... I think a lot of this anti-dice sentiment comes from him getting hit pretty hard in game 5 in the ALCS last year, compounded by his terriable start this year. Thats a lot of baggage to be carrying around in a short time, especially when you have no defining moments for a team that has experienced a lot of defining moments over the last 5 years.


Very disapointing piece by Ryan, who is one of the better columnists around.

He was billed as a superpitcher, a guy who threw in the mid-to-high 90s and who augmented this uberheater with as many as five auxiliary pitches, all, as they say, in the “plus’’ category.

I'll agree with this 100%. He just hasn't shown that since his first start or two. I'll never forget watching his first start against Kansas City (I know) and the thing that struck me is that he literally touched every speed between 74-94 on the radar gun. He mixed and matched and just dominated. Somewhere late in 2007 he decided he just wanted to throw 110 consecutive cut fastballs, it's exasperating.

Best just to judge in the aggregate

I prefer to judge based on the information available at the time. Based on the reports at the time on Matsuzaka the Sox made what was a no-brainer of a decision. The fact is an ERA+ of 114 over his MLB career is pretty good. I just can't grasp the difference in what people saw, what the numbers suggested, and what he has been.

Does he have success through unconventional means?

It's not sustainable success-very very few pitchers in the history of the game have been able to remain consistently above average by walking half the opposition and then stranding them. His FIP last year was more than a run higher than his ERA, and not only do such overachieving pitchers tend to nosedive the next year they also tend to get injured. He likely thought he could continue to do that and get away with it-nope.

Looks like we've moved on to Step 3.

34. DKDC Posted: June 08, 2009 at 05:52 PM (#3210439)

Step 1: Cajole the Boston press into writing glowing articles about the Red Sox pitching depth.
Step 2: Rally the Boston press to write about the feverish trade interest in Brad Penny.
Step 3: Enlist the Boston press to run a more popular starter out of town when step 2 fails to generate a trade market for Penny.

So I guess we should just sit back and wait for the articles about how Josh Beckett isn't a team player and Dice-K is too soft.

citation please?

When is he is right he one of the top 30 starters in baseball.

citation please?

Worst case of Kip Wells Disease I've seen since Kip Wells. Someone oughta develop pills for that.

Looks like we've moved on to Step 3.

Trying to imagine the saintly fanbase that would not develop negative feelings towards an expensive pitcher who sucks so fiercely while trying to play through some injury.

Dice-K has no trade value at this juncture so the only real thing to do is keep him on the DL and see if he can recover and work out some of his issues in rehab stints. I suppose we'll see what John Smoltz can do at Nationals Park, but I am eager to see Clay Bucholz get another shot at starting.

When is he is right he one of the top 30 starters in baseball.

citation please?

16th in MLB in both WHIP and ERA+ in 2007/2008 among pitchers with 300+ IP. I don't think top 30 is a big reach at all. He's frustrating but it seems like we've already moved into revisionist history on Matsuzaka. He's not some kind of hack, he was pretty good his first two seasons. That he hasn't been the Japanese Johan Santana doesn't change that.

Very disapointing piece by Ryan, who is one of the better columnists around.

My thoughts exactly. Whatever you think of Dice-K, the article is what-have-you-done-for-me-lately in the extreme. It reads like it's actually Shaughnessy or Wilbur behind the monitor.

To say nothing of the financial gains from Japan due to this signing. If Dice-K never threw a good pitch in his career with Boston, it would have been worth signing him from that standpoint.

And no, I don't have a ####### citation.

He was billed as a superpitcher, a guy who threw in the mid-to-high 90s and who augmented this uberheater with as many as five auxiliary pitches, all, as they say, in the “plus’’ category.

I'll agree with this 100%.

Jose, my fellow Red Sox fan, with all due respect, I think you're nuts to agree with this. Matsuzaka may not be mixing his pitches the way he did at first, but he never was in the high 90s (this is total revisionism and hyperbole) as well as the "five [plus] auxiliary pitches". There was SO much hype surrounding Matsuzaka when he came over that the scouting reports that trickled to those of us in the general public became contaminated with it, and led to this ridiculousness that's now being spouted back as if it was ever true.

Matsuzaka has been a very good (not great) pitcher in the major leagues to this point. Even including this year's terrible start, you've got 407 innings, 389 Ks, and a 114 ERA+. If that's disappointing to you, your expectations were out of whack to begin with.

I imagine some of the frustration is the notion that had this been some pitcher who did not have this contract and this level of hype behind him on a contender team that had (in theory at least) that many starting pitcher options, that he'd have been bounced from the rotation and/or would not have gotten his spot back after returning from the DL.

Joe - I wasn't clear. I agree with Ryan that Matsuzaka is not that type of pitcher. He is right that this is how Matsuzaka was billed but clearly it was not true which I think is the point Ryan was making that I agree with. The hype and "reports" did not match the facts.

Obviously he neither throws in the mid-high 90s nor has many many pitches that he throws effectively.

Gotcha, Jose, thanks.

"When is he is right he one of the top 30 starters in baseball."

Who gives a ####, especially if that's only when he's at his best? If you have to spend $103 million to get someone who only cracks the top 30, something's wrong.

If you have to spend $103 million to get someone who only cracks the top 30, something's wrong.

Doesnt it matter how long the contract is? If they were "spending $100 million" on just 3 years it would be terrible, but it is 6 years.

Also, you have to determine how much you believe that Matsuzaka's contract can be looked at as an investment in expanding revenues.

At least the Yankees are having better luck. Tonight Kei Igawa attempts to tie the franchise win record at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre!

This is sort of like criticizing a mutual fund with 100 names in it for four or five bad picks despite beating its benchmark by 10% or so over a five-year period.

The criticism is valid enough I suppose in that Dice-K has not provided the value Sox fans would have liked. But who really gives a #### when the team wins like it does?

Obviously he neither throws in the mid-high 90s nor has many many pitches that he throws effectively.

He throws high in the zone very often. While that has the effect of causing more homers, it also means he theoretically might be able to suppress BABIP (a la Chris Young). This probably explains how he was able to be successful last year despite the ridiculous walk rate.

However, I don't understand how any pitcher can succeed in MLB working high in the zone so often. With Dice-K, the notion was always that he threw so many different pitches, no one could tee off on him. But now it looks like either a) he can't locate as well as he used to, or b) hitters have adjusted.

Who gives a ####, especially if that's only when he's at his best?

The Redsox have gotten there money worth in two our of three years. I really should have said, when he isn't at his worst rather than when he is at his best. Since he was consistantly the one of the top 30 starters over his first two full seasons.

At least the Yankees are having better luck. Tonight Kei Igawa attempts to tie the franchise win record at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre!

They don't get killed for that one near enough.

They don't get killed for that one near enough.

Ah, yes, the $50 million overreaction to the Dice-K gambit.

Doesnt it matter how long the contract is? If they were "spending $100 million" on just 3 years it would be terrible, but it is 6 years.

It also matters that half of that money doesn't count towards the luxury tax cap, and they didn't have to give up a draft pick to sign him.

It also matters that half of that money doesn't count towards the luxury tax cap, and they didn't have to give up a draft pick to sign him.

Good point--I didn't know this. To me it's another example of how the Red Sox try to exploit market inefficiencies. Which is, of course, the real Moneyball--not the thing that Morgan and Phillips turned it into Sunday night.

I hope after they shut him down, he comes back around August and comes back as old Daisuke: 5 2/3 IP, 120 pitches, 1-2 ER

To say nothing of the financial gains from Japan due to this signing. If Dice-K never threw a good pitch in his career with Boston, it would have been worth signing him from that standpoint.

Really? Don't most international revenues go to MLB central and get split 30 ways?

ironchef: don't forget 2 hits, 4 walks, 5 ks

Really? Don't most international revenues go to MLB central and get split 30 ways?

Some of the money (long-term) that the Sox stand to bring in by attracting Japanese fans is domestic.

Forget the financial gains, what about the 'intangibles'?

By which I mean that the Red Sox seem to have made inroads towards acquiring some of the Japanese talent that otherwise might not have come to Boston. Junichi Tazawa, for example, chose Boston because of Dice-K, over a higher contract offer from Texas.

Really? Don't most international revenues go to MLB central and get split 30 ways?

Some of the money (long-term) that the Sox stand to bring in by attracting Japanese fans is domestic.

OK, sure, but they can't recoup $100M by selling the last few tickets to tourists from Tokyo rather than locals.

OK, sure, but they can't recoup $100M by selling the last few tickets to tourists from Tokyo rather than locals.

uhh, thats not the only way to make revenue.

and the dont have to recoup the WHOLE $100 million.

but obtuse away

uhh, thats not the only way to make revenue.

and the dont have to recoup the WHOLE $100 million.

but obtuse away

Well, it was post # 11 that suggested the Red Sox would be ahead on the deal even if Dice-K "never threw a good pitch". I don't see how that could be true with international revenues being divided evenly among the 30 teams. Other than ballpark advertising signs aimed at the Japanese audience, what are these domestic revenues that the Red Sox are capturing? I don't really think there are any that are all that significant, and it was the same for Seattle with Ichiro & the Yankees with Matsui.

The criticism is valid enough I suppose in that Dice-K has not provided the value Sox fans would have liked. But who really gives a #### when the team wins like it does?

Well, Red Sox fans, of course. No matter how well things are going, every tough loss is harder to take, every disappointment more painful, and then every victory more joyous. They have a monopoly on emotion.

I know that surely doesn't apply to all Sox fans, but I go to school in Boston, and every time the 03 playoffs come up, and they relive the horror that was Aaron Boone, I always have to remind them that they won the ####### World Series the next year, and, by the way, I'm an A's fan guys, remember how you got to that ALCS in the first place? And even that aside, why is Aaron ####### Boone coming up more in baseball conversation than the fact that they've won two damn World Series since then anyway? And these aren't lifers who had to go through Buckner and Dent and all that, these are 20 and 21-year old college kids who've had to deal with very, very little disappointment in their sporting lives.

But, hey, why sing the praises of all those dudes who play for the Red Sox when there's Daisuke to ##### about.

Well, it was post # 11 that suggested the Red Sox would be ahead on the deal even if Dice-K "never threw a good pitch". I don't see how that could be true with international revenues being divided evenly among the 30 teams. Other than ballpark advertising signs aimed at the Japanese audience, what are these domestic revenues that the Red Sox are capturing? I don't really think there are any that are all that significant, and it was the same for Seattle with Ichiro & the Yankees with Matsui.

Seattle is different from Boston or NY because it can realize significant revenues from Japanese tourists because the flight is more feasible and they don't sell out their games. But I agree that the direct revenue gains from the Daisuke signing are minimal. There could be indirect benefits like the Tazawa signing.

Well, Red Sox fans, of course. No matter how well things are going, every tough loss is harder to take, every disappointment more painful, and then every victory more joyous. They have a monopoly on emotion.

I am Red Sox fan. I think your analysis is mostly right but my question was more or less rhetorical.

I guess I don't see the point of the article. Even if you concede that Dice-K has not been worth the money, where are we? What has his signing cost the Red Sox? That's what I would ask Bob Ryan, I guess.

I bet that for the Japanese partners in the Mariners ownership there's plenty of intangible benefits in signing Japanese stars.

Like Kenji Johjima. Biggest Japanese star ever.

I know that surely doesn't apply to all Sox fans, but I go to school in Boston, and every time the 03 playoffs come up, and they relive the horror that was Aaron Boone, I always have to remind them that they won the ####### World Series the next year, and, by the way, I'm an A's fan guys, remember how you got to that ALCS in the first place?

I'm a Sox fan from a family full of them (don't live there anymore, but I do encouter a decent number of them in DC) and I don't honestly think they dwell much on Aaron Boone. I don't hear much about Aaron Boone.

I'm old enough to remember Buckner (12) but not Bucky Dent (4) and yeah, a 20-year old Boston sports fan (assuming they are pro-Boston all down the line) has been fairly spoiled. Growing up in the early '80s, we did have the Celts, but the Red Sox and Bruins were both gigantic teases and the Patriots mostly sucked.

Well, it was post # 11 that suggested the Red Sox would be ahead on the deal even if Dice-K "never threw a good pitch". I don't see how that could be true with international revenues being divided evenly among the 30 teams. Other than ballpark advertising signs aimed at the Japanese audience, what are these domestic revenues that the Red Sox are capturing? I don't really think there are any that are all that significant, and it was the same for Seattle with Ichiro & the Yankees with Matsui.

sorry, I hadnt seen that claim in post #11.

I think international branding will make them money (and Dice-K is part of that) in the longterm.

As a Red Sox fan, I think the problem is that:

1) most of us thought Matsuzaka would be a dominant pitcher, rather than a maddening-but-above-average pitcher. We thought he and Beckett would be a 1 and 1A combo at the top of the rotation. Now, I don't think there's anybody who would rather have Matsuzaka than Lester...and it would not shock me if, by this time next year, Buchholz is seen as a more valuable commodity than Matsuzaka, as well. So, the expectations, set by rhetoric and the $100 million, were out of whack with reality...
2) Matsuzaka is thoroughly unlikable. He is painful to watch pitch, and he never seems to get pissed about the fact that all these runners keep getting on base. Throw a friggin' strike - if he does, and they hit it, we'll boo him less than if he keeps walking batters...
3) He has no capital built up for the tough times he's facing right now. Ortiz didn't do squat for two months, but because of 2003-2008, he has virtually unlimited capital to burn (how many playoff games can one man win in walk-off fashion?). Matsuzaka seems to take the WBC more seriously than listening to his pitching coaches, who have great reputations for keeping pitchers healthy and strong. If the Sox were struggling for pitching, you would hear much more about this right now...

Bottom line: We won the whole thing in 2007, and he had a nice season in 2008, when we almost won it again. This year, he has sucked, but we have the depth to cover it, and he exits with the Red Sox having the best record in the AL by about four games, and Smoltz and Buchholz ready to go. He has helped us more than he's hurt us, but nobody really sees him as some "future ace" at this point...

Matsuzaka is thoroughly unlikable. He is painful to watch pitch, and he never seems to get pissed about the fact that all these runners keep getting on base.

I think you'd have to be rooting for him (either as a Red Sox fan or perhaps as a gambler or a fantasy owner, not that I would recommend the latter two) and watch one or two of his starts to understand all the griping about Dice K. His starts really are maddening to watch, even when he's having a relatively decent outing.

I believe the Mariners received (and still do) a lot of extra revenue from the Ichiro signing by selling the game broadcasts overseas. I'm not too familiar with all the details of how revenue gets split up, but I believe that all merchandise revenue, like Ichiro jerseys, hats, pillows, ottomans, etc. get split between all teams, but each team is free to sell their own broadcasts to overseas markets. When Ichiro first signed, that extra broadcast revenue stream was very significant. I'm not sure how it stands today.

...and watch one or two of his starts to understand all the griping about Dice K. His starts really are maddening to watch, even when he's having a relatively decent outing.

Yes but sometimes its fun to watch him pitch because of the variety of his pitches/speeds.

And in 2008, as the season went on it became almost enjoyable to watch him because of the absurdity that he continued to bail himself out after all the walks + baserunners.

Yes but sometimes its fun to watch him pitch because of the variety of his pitches/speeds.

And in 2008, as the season went on it became almost enjoyable to watch him because of the absurdity that he continued to bail himself out after all the walks + baserunners.

There is truth to this. After all, the guy did go 18-and blanking-3 you know. I like Dice, despite all his
weirdness...but maybe because of it.

He needs that 94mph heater to get those high pitch outs, and he doesn't have that this year.