If I call myself the Papster, I quickly jump off the nearest building.

The Smear?

Well, if I'm not mistaken, wasn't some of the advanced defensive data suggesting that AGon's defense was not as good as it used to be (I presume it's a loss in his range). We know he can't hit. The deal he signed this week does make me think the Red Sox could've had him as a reasonable insurance plan...but that they honestly didn't think he'd sign so quickly.

Bottom line: if you don't think his defense is quite as stellar as his reputation, at this point, then he isn't very good.

Is Hulett seen as a plausible backup plan for not finding a quality starter this winter?

JE-TER'S BET-TER, clap, clap, clap-clap-clap JE-TER'S BET-TER, clap, clap, clap-clap-clap

Well, if I'm not mistaken, wasn't some of the advanced defensive data suggesting that AGon's defense was not as good as it used to be (I presume it's a loss in his range).

By the B-R numbers, he's been basically average, give or take a little, for his entire career.

What about Lowrie? Are there still questions about his wrist?

Nah, I just think there are plenty questions about Lowrie.

AGon's arm was not nearly the asset that it used to be, and its not like he had amazing range in the first place. For a player who was going to give you an OBP in the 300 range (if you're lucky) I don't think they could have lived with the questionable defense.

I have more faith in Lowrie than is likely warranted, but unless Theo can pull a Coco like trade for a SS out of his hat, or of they sign Holliday so they're only giving up a second round pick, I think Jed is probably the best option.

I have more faith in Lowrie than is likely warranted, but unless Theo can pull a Coco like trade for a SS out of his hat, or of they sign Holliday so they're only giving up a second round pick, I think Jed is probably the best option.

The Red Sox should take a serious look at Scutaro. If he's only looking for 3/$18, they can probably get him for 2/$12 + an option, and he'll definitely be worth that.

Ryan, I'm OK with Scutato as a stop-gap, but not at the cost of a first round pick. His 2009 still seems a bit flukey; even of it was he'd be fine to pay in an Alex Cora type roll.

Ryan, I'm OK with Scutato as a stop-gap, but not at the cost of a first round pick

The Jays have already signed their two shortstops for next year (McDonald and Gonzalez? Ugh.), and have indicated that they'll be cutting ties with Scutato. Don't be surprised if they don't offer him arbitration, since he'd probably be able to rail them for something close to $10M on a one-year deal and (as noted by others) there aren't a ton of teams out there looking for a SS.

The Red Sox should take a serious look at Scutaro.

There are not really any other quality options are there? They could roll the dice on a one-year deal at SS, but what is the upside of a Crosby, Greene, or Counsell? Compare that to the upside of a Sheets, Bedard, or Duchscherer. I just don't see the Red Sox having anybody else as their top SS FA other than Scutaro.

What about Lowrie? Are there still questions about his wrist?

I'm a big fan of Lowrie and I think he deserves a second chance, however there's no arguing that he's injury prone - he had two injury filled years out of 4 full years in pro ball (2006 & 2009). So the Red Sox need to find a mediocre but durable veteran to serve as insurance policy. Alex Gonzalez might have served that role, but Adam Everett would do as well. The outcry in Boston about losing Sea-Bass to the Jays is more about how bad the Red Sox shortstops were the last couple of years - they made Gonzalez look good by comparison.

Looking at Tug Hulett's projections, CHONE thinks he is a better hitter at 0 Linear Weights than all of Boston's shortstop cast: Nick Green at -19, Jed Lowrie at -3, Julio Lugo at -15, and Alex Gonzalez at -22. Given that he's apparently an average 2B defensively, he should be able to fake being a -5 shortstop, and thus should be the best total package than all of the names above other than Jed Lowrie. I would love it if Boston went into 2010 with a Lowrie/Hulett job sharing arrangement at SS, but the Red Sox are much too risk averse for that.

Teams with championship as their only goal and the Yankees as their primary nemesis do not sign Alex Gonzalez to be their starting shortstop. Sportswriters should know this. Third graders should know this. If not for the undeserved reputation as a ++ defender and a fluky month where he hit 6 homers in Cincinnati Kiddie Park it would be more obvious that he is one of the worst regulars in baseball. That OBP is a lineup killer

I'm all for Scutaro, he consistently hit OK for a middle IF playing half his games in Oakland for years, and he actually has good numbers defensively

I'm all for Scutaro, he consistently hit OK for a middle IF playing half his games in Oakland for years, and he actually has good numbers defensively

Scutaro, being the best shorstop on the free agent market, would require a multi-year commitment. I'd rather give the prospects a chance. Iglesias would be ready by 2012, or optimistically by 2011, and Jed Lowrie deserves a chance to show what he can do if he can stay healthy.

If I'm the Papster, I’m thinking

Probably not.

I seem to remember that the Red Sox missed the playoffs with Alex Gonzalez on the roster the first time. Certainly not entirely his fault, but I do think there's a bottom line below which your defense cannot rescue you. Gonzalez is comfortably below it. He's not good.

As a Brewer fan, I wouldn't want this to happen, but I think it makes a fair amount of sense for Boston to look at Counsell. I'm guessing it might take $2M for him to leave his Milwaukee area home.

He can't be an everyday SS, but he would be a good backup option if the Sox want to go with Lawrie as the starter and have a reliable backup. Last year was an outlier, and it can't be expected to be repeated, but he changed his stance last year and had a career year at the plate. Even when he is a bad hitter, his defense has been good enough that he would be worth the contract.

My problem with this is I think it forces their hand into signing Scutaro or Cabrera. I think Gonzalez would have been the type of guy who the Sox could have started Lowrie and if he didn't pan out they go to Gonzalez. Now, they either have to go with Lowrie as a starter and Tug Hulett (who I like, but not THAT much) as the fallback or they have to sign someone to be the starter. A quick look and I don't find a plausible backup who could start type. Basically it's another year of "let's hope shortstop doesn't totally destroy us."

I think Gonzalez would have been the type of guy who the Sox could have started Lowrie and if he didn't pan out they go to Gonzalez.

Alex Gonzalez isn't that good. He's a backup level player too. Alex Cora or Adam Everett would do as well

Ryan, arbitration cases(even FAs) are based on the previous years salary. Scutaro only made $1.1. million in 2009, so I'm guessing at most he'll get around $4 million in arbitration.

Also, Scutaro said he wants to play for either the Red Sox or the Dodgers and as a SS/2nd baseman.

Ryan, arbitration cases(even FAs) are based on the previous years salary.

Are you sure about that one? I've never seen that stated before.

Which isn't to say that you're wrong, but only that it's entirely possible that I've missed something.

Hmm Ryan, You're right.

The arbitration is a “high-low” proceeding, during which each side presents its case for why the player should be awarded the requested salary in the upcoming season. In deciding to award the higher or lower salary, the panel may consider the following criteria:

(1) the player’s contribution to the club in terms of performance and leadership;

(2) the club’s record and its attendance;

(3) any and all of the player’s “special accomplishments,” including All-Star game appearances, awards won, and postseason performance;

(4) the salaries of comparable players in the player’s service-time class and, for players with less than five years of service, the class one year ahead of him.

The parties may not refer to team finances, previous offers made during negotiations, comments from the press or salaries in other sports or occupations.

Read more: http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/how_baseball_arbitration_works#ixzz0YB7aSpke

I don't think Scutaro has the kind of numbers that impress in arbitration: .282 average, 14 SBs, 12 HRs, 60 RBIs.

The Jays are offering him arbitration (AA said as much) and he'll decline it if there's any chance he's getting a two year deal, and probably even he doesn't since the Jays have indicated to him that they've moved on.

Shouldn't there be some serious discussion of signing/trading for a 2B and moving Pedroia to shortstop?

No.

Shouldn't there be some serious discussion of signing/trading for a 2B and moving Pedroia to shortstop?

Only if the Sox first trade for Miguel Cabrera, move him to LF, move Youkilis to 3B and Lowell to 1B.
With Pedroia at SS, that would make for some hilarious defensive innings during the first couple months of the baseball season.

Only if the Sox first trade for Miguel Cabrera, move him to LF, move Youkilis to 3B and Lowell to 1B.
With Pedroia at SS, that would make for some hilarious defensive innings during the first couple months of the baseball season.

Why not just put Miggy in CF? Ellsbury's UZR is below average there, but he'd be an amazing LFer.

Ryan, I'm OK with Scutato as a stop-gap, but not at the cost of a first round pick. His 2009 still seems a bit flukey; even of it was he'd be fine to pay in an Alex Cora type roll.

I don't think the loss of the pick is really that big a deal. The Sox are picking in the late 20's again and, at that point, the guys available aren't much different than the guys available in the sandwich round and second round. Plus, the Sox usually do a decent job of drafting in the later rounds because they have no problems throwing first-round money at a guy they draft in the 8th round that only fell that far due to signability concerns.

Why not just put Miggy in CF? Ellsbury's UZR is below average there, but he'd be an amazing LFer.

Well, given that Miggy is a former 3B and SS, he should have a strong arm, so he can play RF, Ellsbury would go to LF so that he wouldn't have to react to balls hit over his head, and JD Drew can handle CF.

I could always be missing something here. Do you have any idea what it is?

Theo Epstein is smarter than you.

Don't be surprised if they don't offer him arbitration,

I will be, and will advocate Anthopolous is immediately fired if he does not.

If they sign Holliday then Scutaro costs a 2nd rounder and then who cares. You can get an extra 2nd round talent later in the draft without too much of a problem.

If the Sawx lose Bay, they'll get back a pick anyway. Scutaro is so much better than a plan B at short, and can play multiple positions well. That there are Red Sox fans here that don't want to give him 2/12 is baffling. You guys are over-thinking this one. Even if he costs a pick, so what? Do you want to go to the playoffs again or do you want bragging rights at minorleagueball.com?

After thinking about it a little more, I am more interested in signing Scutaro than I was before. I guess I've been assuming that he'd require a 3-year commitment, for about $21 million...but at 2/12, he's a fine pickup.

His versatility makes him more attractive, too. Let's say Lowrie ends up being healthy and productive - you can still get Scutaro regular playing time between SS, 3B, and 2B (even a little OF) - especially if Lowell is on the team in 2010. If Lowrie ends up not getting it done, either due to health or production, Scutaro at SS for a couple of years seems hardly catastrophic. He also takes enough walks that, if he can hit .250, he'll probably give you a .340 OBP with solid defense.

This makes him a lot different from most of the other SS solutions Epstein has tried - Lugo, Cabrera, Renteria, Gonzalez - lack both the ability to take walks, and to play other positions. Both of these skills add value to the team that none of the guys listed above ever really did.

If he'll take 2/12, this Red Sox fan will be pleased with the signing. Three years...not so much.

Ryan, I'm OK with Scutato as a stop-gap

If this isn't Marco's nickname, and is instead (likely) just a typo, it should now be decreed to be his nickname. That's T-Bone territory there. "Hey Scu-tato!"

You guys are over-thinking this one.

Scuttaro has a fabulous contract year where he puts up his first OPS+ over 100 in his career at age 33, and suddenly having reservations about giving him a multi-year deal at the cost of a first round pick is over-thinking things? It's not like we root for the Pirates here...

Edit: Jeff, that is a typo, but it wouldn't be the first typo I had that gave a player a dumb nickname. The whole "Ted" for Tek thing on SoSH was my fault for the same reason...

Hey, it's all moot, according to supremely plugged in and relevant Bill Madden, the Sox and Marlins are negotiating a trade for Hanley Ramirez.

I think the Sox need to seriously look at moving Pedroia to short. His UZR/150 has been 10.5 and 10.6 the past two years at 2B. Even if he's 10-15 runs worse at short, they still come out ahead if they can get a halfway decent 2B. The SS options are that bad. My top choices would be signing Felipe Lopez (no pick required, 4.6 WAR last year) or trading for Rickie Weeks (might be a bigger arb payout coming than MIL is looking to pay considering injuries, ala Hermida). Put Lowrie into a utility role -- he'll find plenty of ABs and if he proves himself can follow the Mark DeRosa career path.

I want no part in giving up the 29th overall pick for Marco Scutaro. It doesn't matter if you get picks back for Bay or Wagner, the decisions aren't related to each other. A first round pick isn't less valuable just because you have other first round picks.

I'm glad as hell the Sox didn't sign a middling Type A free agent after '07 and lose the #30 pick in '08 (Casey Kelly), and the team will be regretting for years giving up the #20 pick for Julio Lugo and with it the chance to grab Rick Porcello ahead of Detroit.

I think it'll be moot anyway -- no one will sign Scutaro before the arb deadline and Toronto won't risk offering with Gonzalez and McDonald already guaranteed money.

Why wouldn't Toronto offer? If Scooty accepts they would have three legit MLB shortstops and the big-spending Sox none. It's higher-stakes than they would otherwise do, but maybe the Sox get desperate and take a salary problem off their hands in exchange for a shortstop. And if Scooty doesn't accept (I think this is far more likely; he can see the developing market and knows that he's likely options A and B for the Sox), they get a cost-controlled pick.

Actually, I think the Blue Jays feel confident enough that somebody will sign him that they'll offer arbitration. In today's Boston Globe, Scutaro specifically says he'd like to play for either the Dodgers or the Red Sox, though other teams (Seattle wants him to play third, the Rangers are interested, as well) have expressed interest. So, the chances seems pretty good that offering arbitration won't kill all four teams' interest.

or trading for Rickie Weeks (might be a bigger arb payout coming than MIL is looking to pay considering injuries, ala Hermida).

Miwaukee and Florida aren't really comparable here. Weeks is coming back and will be the 2B next year.

If there's any truth at all to the rumor the Marlins would ship Hanley, you have to kick the tires a long, long time on that one. He's one I'd be willing to trade just about any prospect for... Of course, I have my doubts the Marlins are actually doing this, but if it's true, I'd be far more happy with them getting Hanley to play SS than getting Halladay to P. More than fine with it.

you have to kick the tires a long, long time on that one.

Upon further review, I'm calling Textbook for a bizarrely mixed metaphor.

Moving Pedroia to short makes a lot of sense if they can find a good 2B. Pedroia is statistically excellent, as PCR points out. But he also looks to be a good fielder who would be quick enough and have the arm for the position.

I'd be incredibly wary of moving a star-level player defensively because of organizational need. Has that ever happened before in baseball history?

Mental Note: Do not comment before completing 1st cup of coffee, as language capabilities are mixed at best until properly fueled.

I'd be incredibly wary of moving a star-level player defensively because of organizational need. Has that ever happened before in baseball history?

Michael Young after A-Rod left. Pedroia himself was moved off short because they'd signed Lugo. But no, not a lot of guys move to a more difficult position at the major league level. Doing it with Pedroia would be a risk, but one they should think long and hard about.

Actually, I think the Blue Jays feel confident enough that somebody will sign him that they'll offer arbitration. In today's Boston Globe, Scutaro specifically says he'd like to play for either the Dodgers or the Red Sox, though other teams (Seattle wants him to play third, the Rangers are interested, as well) have expressed interest. So, the chances seems pretty good that offering arbitration won't kill all four teams' interest.

My impression of all these "Scutaro being courted by multiple teams" stories is that they're coming from his end, trying to drum up the market. Matt Holliday doesn't need to make quotes to newspapers about where he'd like to play because he knows he'll get his money. This type of negotiating in public tactic is for players who aren't seeing offers they like and want to get the local fans clamoring for a move.

Why wouldn't Toronto offer? If Scooty accepts they would have three legit MLB shortstops and the big-spending Sox none. It's higher-stakes than they would otherwise do, but maybe the Sox get desperate and take a salary problem off their hands in exchange for a shortstop.

Wait, what? The Sox weren't willing to pay McDonald, Gonzalez, or Scutaro (in this scenario) what they wanted when all it would cost is money, and now they're going to pay their salaries AND take on dead weight? Plus, you can't trade any of those guys until six months after their deals are signed. The Jays should be real careful in this game of chicken. They could end up paying superstar money at shortstop for three mediocre players.

Plus, you can't trade any of those guys until six months after their deals are signed.

I thought guys signed through arb could be traded right away, which would in theory give them flexibility if they were to offer and Scutaro were to accept. Of course, in practice, the Jays would probably #### themselves if Scutaro were to accept arbitration.

They could end up paying superstar money at shortstop for three mediocre players.

You're being generous if you're referring to McDonald and Gonzalez as mediocre.

I'd be incredibly wary of moving a star-level player defensively because of organizational need. Has that ever happened before in baseball history?

Pete Rose playing third base comes to mind. The Reds had no major league quality third baseman, and had Griffey, Foster, Geronimo, Rose, and Driessen in the outfield.

You can also find plenty of cases where guys moved between outfield positions for organizational need. Stan Musial and Ichiro were both moved to centerfield for need, although one could argue that Ichiro was originally moved from center to right because the Mariners already had Cameron.

Pedroia himself was moved off short because they'd signed Lugo. But no, not a lot of guys move to a more difficult position at the major league level. Doing it with Pedroia would be a risk, but one they should think long and hard about.

Pedroia was actually moved to second base in the minors because the Sox had both Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez.

It will be too bad if the Red Sox do miraculously trade for Hanley, since he'll instantly become a bad player. Such is the Nomar Curse.

Well, I'm sure there'll be an adjustment period of a year or so going from AAAA to the AL East.

Moving Pedroia to SS is a bad idea ... especially if you're doing so to sign dreck like Felipe Lopez. Lopez had a good year last year, 111 OPS+ ... and has a career 93 OPS+, will be 30 and has a bad reputation. None of the other FA 2B are any better really. Might as well sign Scutaro (34, career 92 OPS+, 111 OPS+ in 2009, defensive flexibility), he's a better player than Lopez.

Now what the Red Sox should do is trade for Hanley, move him to 3rd, trade Lowell to the Phils (who need a 3B) for Utley, move Pedroia to SS which will allow them to trade Iglesias for Sizemore (Indians might have to throw in some money if they really want Iglesias), then they can package Ellsbury and Youk for Pujols and Rasmus, which means they can slide Sizemore over to RF and trade Drew for Lincecum which will allow them to flip Buchholz (or Beckett because I really, really like Buchholz ... or maybe Dice-K) for Joe Mauer (we can get the Twins to throw in Denard Span).

Moving Pedroia to SS is a bad idea ... especially if you're doing so to sign dreck like Felipe Lopez. Lopez had a good year last year, 111 OPS+ ... and has a career 93 OPS+, will be 30 and has a bad reputation. None of the other FA 2B are any better really. Might as well sign Scutaro (34, career 92 OPS+, 111 OPS+ in 2009, defensive flexibility), he's a better player than Lopez.

I'm not sure how you get from listing nearly identical last year and career OPS+ numbers to concluding that Scutaro is worth signing and Lopez is dreck. Not when Lopez is four years younger. Not when Lopez's career numbers are from age 21-29 and Scutaro's 28-33. Not when Lopez is a former top prospect, faster, and generally toolsier. And especially not when Scutaro will cost you a first round pick and Lopez nothing but cash.

A player like Scutaro (much of his value coming from walks, little power, little speed) seems like a great bet to fall off a cliff in his mid-30s. Lopez has a much broader skill set and seems a better bet to age well as he enters his 30s.

I'm with Paxton here. The real key is whether the Red Sox think that Pedroia could handle the move back to shortstop. My guess is that he'd be above average at short. He was the NCAA defensive player of the year as a shortstop, after all.

Hanley coming back? Let it be so.

If the Red Sox were talking about getting Chase Utley or something, I could see having a discussion about moving Pedroia...but Lopez?

And, as for Hanley Ramirez, while I'd love to see him back in Boston, I can't understand any incentive Florida has to trade hom, given his contract...unless somebody offered such a ri-donk-u-lous package that they couldn't say no. What might that look like? I'd think it would have to include Buchholz and Bard, Westmoreland and/or Kelly, and Lars Anderson, for starters. That's probably still not enough, and it would blow a hole through any prospects left in their system...

And, as for Hanley Ramirez, while I'd love to see him back in Boston, I can't understand any incentive Florida has to trade hom, given his contract

In case you haven't heard, Loria is really, really, really cheap, and will do almost anything to save a buck and bump up his profit.

If the Red Sox were talking about getting Chase Utley or something, I could see having a discussion about moving Pedroia...but Lopez?

I wouldn't be particularly excited about signing Lopez either, I just think he's a better idea than Scutaro. Weeks is the guy I'd love to see them go after. He can do everything on a baseball field well, even defense, which has recently turned around: 0.5 UZR over the past three years, with a 21.9/150 in limited time last year. That limited time part is the rub though.

As for what the Sox could offer Milwaukee, how about taking a big chunk of the $14.5M Jeff Suppan has left on his contract? I think the Sox would always prefer to spend the money than the prospects. Throw in a B level guy or two like Doubront or Navarro and it might start to make sense for the Brewers, who are facing a ton of arbitration cases and need to decide how best to spread their dollars around.

I have an irrational enthusiasm for Doubront so let's leave him out of these discussions please.

Count me as someone who doesn't think Pedroia would make a particularly good shortstop. I realize he started there but I don't think he has the arm for it.

I get that Loria is cheap, but the conventional wisdom seemed to be that Ramirez was the one guy that was both a superstar and was signed to a reasonable contract for many years. The contract is still reasonable...but because he is so good, and so young, at a key position, a "reasonable" contract is one that will almost certainly be too high for the Marlins within a few years - but will be very attractive to big-revenue teams. I guess I didn't see how much Ramirez is set to be paid in the future:

2009: $5.5m
2010/2011: combined $18m (don't know if that is an even $9m per year)
2012: $15m
2013: $15.5m
2014: $16m

He'll be 30 years only in 2014, so this is an extremely valuable ballpayer, who will be in his peak years during this entire contract.

I now see how there is no foreseeable friggin' way he'll be on the team past 2011...the questions are:
1) when does the price point get too high for the Marlins? 2010, 2011, or 2012?
2) how much more in young talent could the Marlins get in exchange for each additional year of contract traded away?

In other words (to use the Red Sox as an example), if the Marlins traded Ramirez to the Red Sox this winter, rather than in two seasons, the team-friendly contract, plus the ability to have Ramirez under Sox conttrol for two additional seasons, is worth a s***load of additional talent. How much? I honestly don't know if the Red Sox have five prospects/young major-leaguers good enough to make this trade happen. Buchholz, Bard, Iglesias, Kelly, Westmoreland? Is that good enough? Too much? The Marlins would get our three highest-ceiling guys in the minors (a pitcher, an outfielder, and a SS), and a major-league pitcher who will be, at least, a good #3 starter, maybe a lot more; and a relief pitcher who is being groomed to be a closer very soon.

I would waaay rather unload the farm for Ramirez than for Halladay. It would solve the SS problem, offensive issues, give the Red Sox big payroll flexibility after the 2010 season, and do it with a guy who will be here for another five years at an average of 12.5m a year...or what Mike Lowell is making in 2010.

The scenario, after working through the informatiton, is less ridiculous than I first thought...

I would waaay rather unload the farm for Ramirez than for Halladay.

I would much rather you unload the farm for Halladay. However, I do agree that, assuming he's available, Ramirez would be the much smarter move for the Red Sox.

According to Cot's, Hanley's set to make $7M next year and $11M in 2011. Offering to take a bad contract off Florida's hands might be a way to lessen the cost in prospects, ala Mike Lowell, except for the fact that their guaranteed contracts consist of Ramirez... and Wes Helms, for one year at $950,000. Which I guess makes a certain kind of financial sense for an organization in their position, but really makes them look cheap.

I would much rather you unload the farm for Halladay. However, I do agree that, assuming he's available, Ramirez would be the much smarter move for the Red Sox.

Hanley would make a smart move for the Blue Jays as well. Why aren't the Blue Jays going nuts for Hanley?

If there's any truth at all to the rumor the Marlins would ship Hanley,

I have not heard this rumor. This is insane. Trading Hanley:Trading Josh Johnson::Trading Josh Johnson:The normal operations of a Major League Baseball franchise.

Count me as someone who doesn't think Pedroia would make a particularly good shortstop. I realize he started there but I don't think he has the arm for it.

I agree that he doesn't have a great throwing arm for a shortstop. Neither did Ozzie Smith, or David Eckstein. Pedroia has something else in common with Smith and Eckstein, which is that he has incredibly quick feet. Just watch how quick he gets set on the double play, or how fast he gets up and gets set to throw after making a diving stop. He has the ability to make up for a relatively weak arm by being able to get rid of the ball quickly with nearly full strength on the throw. His throwing arm would probably be a detriment when he'd be the middle man on double plays, but otherwise, he would be able to cover for that lack of ability with other abilities.

The other option with Felipe Lopez, of course, would be to play Lopez at shortstop. Only a few years ago, he played there. He was well below average, but not horrible.