12-15 million a year? Is this what the financial whizerati had projected for the market?

Didn't figure Lowell would go cheap but this seems high to me.

But then I am cheap............

As a Yankee fan, I regard this as the best news of the free agent season so far.

As a Yankee fan, I regard this as the best news of the free agent season so far.

Is this just because it's the first news that isn't terrible for a Yankee fan?

The existence of the offer is the best news, or the fact that it's likely short of what it'll take?

A 3 year deal pleases me. Even though that 3rd year will probably look really bad.

That is just a ridiculous amount for a guy I consider to be steady, reliable, and workmanlike, but not especially outstanding.

I'm now sure that Red Sox fans will tell me how he's the greatest 3Bman since George Brett.

"I'm now sure that Red Sox fans will tell me how he's the greatest 3Bman since George Brett."

Not on this site, they won't.

Surely he was one of the best 3B in the AL last year, though. (Though I hear there was this guy in New York...) The only concern for Sox fans is how he'll age.

But I can't tell from this article whether he's likely or unlikely to sign. Seems to be a good deal on both sides of that ledger.

The existence of the offer is the best news, or the fact that it's likely short of what it'll take?

I assume the fact that it's been reported in the Herald with the Red Sox spin, we tried our hardest, he just wouldn't take the deal.

That is just a ridiculous amount for a guy I consider to be steady, reliable, and workmanlike, but not especially outstanding.

I'm now sure that Red Sox fans will tell me how he's the greatest 3Bman since George Brett.

No, this is when we tell you that salaries have not taken up a lower percentage of revenues in at least a decade (iirc). Salaries go up 11% per season. There was a little bit of collusi... sorry, "market correction" a few years ago, but that's gone, and player salaries are growing with it. Nate Silver's "MORP" projector sees $13.5M as a 5ish WARP season, which is perfectly reasonable for Lowell. That's just what "steady, reliable, workmanlike" costs. (In fact, it probably is a bit less than workmanlike costs, as Lowell appears unlikely to accept.)

Is this just because it's the first news that isn't terrible for a Yankee fan?

Pretty much. But I like the idea of them locking into Lowell for 3 years and the price seems high to me, though cost is not all that relevant.

Mind you, I don't mean to say that Lowell is bad; I just don't consider him in the top tier.

I do think that Lowell benefits from everything that Boston has to offer from the park itself, to the lineup to playing in front of a full house every night.

While a few extra million a year may seem attractive one has to wonder how Lowell will fair in a different environment.

I think not so well.

I just don't consider him in the top tier.

That's why he's being offered 12-15M. Top-tier talent costs much more than that. Barry Zito cost $18M per season, Alfonso Soriano cost $17M per season. Alex Rodriguez will cost $30M per, and Santana will be in the high 20s at least.

Lowell's more than average and workmanlike. He's a 3Bman with a 110 career OPS+ and competent defense, which really is this valuable. For the Red Sox revenue empire, a marginal win is worth way more than the conventional historical $2M number; I think mgl wrote that it was up to $4.5 to 5M nowadays for the AL East empires. This is a good deal for both sides and I hope Lowell signs. He's not going to get significantly more without the Yankees going into full blown panic mode, and the fan goodwill and marketing with him staying in Boston is a win-win for both sides.

Well then maybe I'm surprised that $12-15MM is the going rate for someone in the second tier of 3Bmen.

I would've figured him to be more like $9-12MM.

Lowell is worth more to Boston then he is to anyone else because of the way he hits in Fenway, he's been among the best third basemen in the league, he hasn't showed signs of slowing offensively or defensively, it's not a bad contract. I hope it turns into one, because Drew, Lugo, and a bad Lowell would be a wonderful anchor for the $150 million player development machine, but I don't think it's all that likely.

How do people see Lowell aging? He is neither a hacker nor very selective, and he has an non-pretty swing that relies a lot on his hands and arms. Does this type of hitter age worse than a Youkilis type of hitter (more selective, slightly better looking swing)?

His top ten comps over at BBRef generally looked pretty good thru age 35, then started hitting the wall. Includes such luminaries as Ron Cey, Doug Decinces, Caminiti (whose fluke year was also at age 33), and Todd Zeile. From age 34 on their OPS+ was 111.

I'll be shocked if Lowell goes somewhere else. It just seems like a great fit for both sides. ANd it's not like the Red Sox can't afford 3/$50M or something similar.

Mind you, I don't mean to say that Lowell is bad; I just don't consider him in the top tier.

There aren't any top tier players on the market, except one who will be getting 30-35mm. I expect lowell will sign a 4 year deal for ATLEAST 60mm and probably not with the redsox.

Anyone who thinks that 3 years for 36-45mm is HIGH is drasticly overrating what talent will be going for this offseason.

I would actually say if Lowell took this deal it would be for a home town discount.

Well then maybe I'm surprised that $12-15MM is the going rate for someone in the second tier of 3Bmen.

Among 3Bers -

2003: 4th in VORP (45.0)
2004: 6th in VORP (44.4)
2005: um, awful (-5.1!!!!)
2006: 13th in VORP (26.0)
2007: 6th in VORP (46.5)

Nothing wrong with being "2nd tier" when you put up those sorts of numbers, and the 1st tier contains some of the game's best hitters - A-Rod, Chipper, Miggy, Wright.

$15M a year for Mike Lowell seems a little absurd, even for a team with Boston's money. He's GOOD, but he's not as good (or as young) as Aramis Ramirez, who's getting similar money from the Cubs. I'd say the chances of Lowell putting up at least one year on a par with his last year in Florida (IOW, awful) over the next three years are pretty high.

Then A-Rod will get his $30 million per.

$15M a year for Mike Lowell seems a little absurd, even for a team with Boston's money.

I actually think it's pretty reasonable, and I agree that it's probably a hometown discount. Hell, he made $9M last year on a contract he signed like 3 years ago. I'm surprised that people think this is a bad deal. This is what decent players cost.

I think the point of contention for Lowell and the Sox (if there is, in fact, contention here) is the proposed length of the contract. Aren't there rumors that Lowell wants 4 years?

I actually think it's pretty reasonable, and I agree that it's probably a hometown discount. Hell, he made $9M last year on a contract he signed like 3 years ago. I'm surprised that people think this is a bad deal. This is what decent players cost.

How come nobody points out that all of these decent and above players were incredibly UNDERPAID for 3-4 years? Being a little "overpaid" at this stage in his career seems a reasonable deal for all involved.

#21

Per year it might be the same, but ARam's contract was $75M / 5. The extra 2 years are key.

If Mike Lowell is worth $15M per, then Alex Rodriguez is worth signing over the deed to Norway.

Retro, comparing this to Ramirez's contract really isn't fair. He signed for way less than he could've on the free market. Anaheim woulda tossed an extra 20M at him.

Surely he was one of the best 3B in the AL last year, though.

But don't forget that he had a .324 batting average, which was 30 points better than his previous career high.

Mind you I think he's been a good player -- and I agree he's been one of the best 3B in the league -- but I don't want to see them lock him up for his age 34-36 seasons in a year when ARod and Miguel Cabrera are available.

His total lack of speed -- he's one of the slowest players in the game -- also does not bode well for maintaining a decent batting average as he ages.

Lowell is worth more to Boston then he is to anyone else because of the way he hits in Fenway,

He killed the park this year, but hit much better on the road in 2006. Only .260/.327/.436 at home in 2006.

How do people see Lowell aging?

Well, he's come back from the dead already. BP's transaction analysis from Dec. '05 when the Sox suffered to take him:

Lowell's 32, and his deflation seems so complete, so thorough, that I don't care how expensive he may be, he's going to be hard-pressed to keep his job ahead of Kevin Youkilis.

And again from March '06:

... that means Lowell must hit, and I'm pretty doubtful on that score.

Lowell somehow recouped a significant loss of power in '06 and '07. I don't understand his home-road splits, as I imagine him swatting doubles off the Wall, but he hit only 15 of of his 37 doubles at Fenway.

14 of his HR were over the Wall, with only 7 hit on the road.

But in '06 only 9 of his 20 HRs were at home (all over the Wall).

I don't think it'll be a bust, but that third year should be awkward.

Part of me believes that if the '05 Red Sox had gone all the way, we'd be now entering the third year of Bill Mueller's 3-year megadeal.

Com’on, it’s not that hard, right? Ainge did it...and with far less talent given up!

Yeah, but Ainge got to deal with Kevin McHale -- I don't see anybody in baseball nearly as dumb stupid as McHale.

Per year it might be the same, but ARam's contract was $75M / 5. The extra 2 years are key.

Right, but in Ramirez's case, the entire contract is during his likely prime. He'll be the same age (or close) when that contract ends as Lowell is now.

This is a good deal for both sides, I think.

I also think Cashman will feel Ok if the Yankees wind up with Betemit at 3b.

Must agree with those who say that this would be a good deal for the Sox is Lowell accepts. Anyone who thinks that $12-15MM/year for someone with Lowell's track record and talents simply is out of touch with the changes in the current market.

I don't think Lowell takes this deal, at least not without some changes, perhaps an extra year at a lower rate.

Retro, comparing this to Ramirez's contract really isn't fair. He signed for way less than he could've on the free market. Anaheim woulda tossed an extra 20M at him.

Well, technically, he *was* "on the free market" (he'd declared free agency when the Cubs signed him, and he signed very quickly after doing so--that whole sequence was kind of weird), but he admittedly took a hometown discount. Even if he'd gotten a richer deal, though, I'd much rather pay Ramirez $18M per year for ages 29-33 than pay Lowell $15M per year for ages 34-36.

There is value in keeping Lowell beyond his wins contributed per dollar, in that:

● He's well-liked by both the fans and the players.
● Replacing him has costs. If done by trade, it costs talent. If done by FA, it costs money. However it's done, if the new guy doesn't work out (not much of a concern if it's someone like Alex Rodriguez or Miguel Cabrera -- quite a concern if it's someone like Jed Lowrie, Chris Carter, or Dan Johnson...), it will cost both in terms of public relations and in terms of wins.
● He's most likely got at least one good year left, and probably two. And sucking up the other one or two years is not a huge deal for Boston.

So, it makes sense to offer Lowell a deal that probably "overpays" him by a decent amount, but not by too much. This deal seems to qualify as that, and looks very fair to me. They shouldn't get swept up and offer any more than this, but this seems reasonable under the circumstances.

People are really underestimating the market. There is no way in hell that this offer is an overpay, and there's almost no way in hell Lowell takes it.

There is no way in hell that this offer is an overpay, and there's almost no way in hell Lowell takes it

.

I agree with the first part of your sentence but not the second. Lowell is a nice player, but unless the Yankees want to make a blowout offer, I don't see Lowell getting much more than this elsewhere. The Phillies are the other team that might be motivated to give Lowell really big money.

#32

Yeah, I think ARam's deal is a good deal. Lowell would be less good. Doesn't mean that it is absurd.

And his 77 OPS+ year looks like a complete aberration when compared with the rest of his career.

Yeah - as a Sox fan, I was wary of Boston resigning Lowell, since I assume Lowell would want a 4+ year deal guaranteed, and (as noted already) those final years have a shot at being stinkers. If this is the max offer they give him, though, I can live w/ 3 years @ $15 million. If the 4th year is a sticking point, maybe there could be a compromise involving a club / mutual option & a decent buyout amount.

OK--the District Attorney makes several good points, and I will grant that my use of "absurd" was, well, not absurd, but hyperbolic. I still think the per year's a little much, and I think Lowell's likely to be mediocre or worse by the end of the deal, but I realize the market dictates that in the case of good-or-better players, you pay for an extra year+ of likely mediocrity to get those prior years of likely productiveness.

I guess Lowell just strikes me as the kind of player who's a bad risk to play well beyond his current age, but there's a good chance this would work out well for Boston for a year or two.

Part of my thinking, too, is that the Sox *do* have an inhouse replacement for Lowell in Youkilis--but then, of course, they need to find a first baseman. Is the market for 1Bs that thin? I haven't taken a gander at the FA list for a while. (Wonder if there's a feasible platoon that could be built fairly easily/cheaply...)

The annual salary is about right, but I bet Lowell can get 4 or even 5 years elsewhere.

If the 4th year is a sticking point, maybe there could be a compromise involving a club / mutual option & a decent buyout amount.

Assuming Lowell balks at the deal being "only" three years, that seems like the most likely outcome.

(Wonder if there's a feasible platoon that could be built fairly easily/cheaply...)

Lowrie/Carter/Moss/Youkilis

Also, if Lowell doesn't take this offer, I'd leave it on the table for the entire off season until he signs.

I REALLY REALLY wonder if some team is going to give him a 5 year megadeal. NOBODy in their right mind will want to pay for a 5th year of Mike Lowell.

The annual salary is about right, but I bet Lowell can get 4 or even 5 years elsewhere.

Maybe, but that doesn't make it a good idea. Unless he wildly exceeds expectations, I sure wouldn't want to be stuck with his contract for his age-38 season.

Maybe, but that doesn't make it a good idea. Unless he wildly exceeds expectations, I sure wouldn't want to be stuck with his contract for his age-38 season.

Who do you think the Red Sox should sign for 3B then? Trade for?

Who do you think the Red Sox should sign for 3B then? Trade for?

I never said they shouldn't sign Lowell; he's probably good for another year or two of decent-to-very-good play, and for those years, he's likely their best option. I said I think a 5-year deal for him's stupid.

(And as I said--if Lowell's demands are too high, I suspect there's a passable first base platoon that can be cobbled together while moving Youkilis to third.)

You think Henry is having buyer’s remorse? He keeps on trying to acquire Marlins!

Not unless Dombrowski gets 'em first.

I laugh because I got Lowell for a dollar last year in a 16 team league...
and then dropped him the first week of April, for Bautista in Pittsburgh I think.

what a fool.

Lowrie/Carter/Moss/Youkilis

That's not feasible.

Well, is the offer $12M or $15M per year? That's a pretty significant difference. If the article is correct that the Red Sox won't budge off 3 years, then I'd think it'd have to be $15M to be competitive in this market. Lowell may prefer to play in Boston, but how much would he leave on the table? The leaks from the Red Sox seem designed to put the onus on Lowell if a deal isn't reached.

Lowrie/Carter/Moss/Youkilis

That's not feasible.

Agreed. Chris Carter and Brandon Moss will not play 1B for the Red Sox in 2008 for more than a few innings here or there. Neither is good enough. Lowrie may have a role before the season is out, but it's not going to be at 1st.

Well, is the offer $12M or $15M per year?

Probably something like 12 guaranteed and 3 or so in incentives.

Does Ellsbury and Lester plus something else shiny pry Cabrera away from Florida? Would Boston fans make that deal?

Does Ellsbury and Lester plus something else shiny pry Cabrera away from Florida?

Yes, so long as the other shiny thing answers to the name Buchholtz and has a major league no-hitter on his resume.

This could total $45 million per testicle.

Probably something like 12 guaranteed and 3 or so in incentives.

Seems low, unless the incentives are easy and even then would Lowell want to be the party to assume the risk of injury when he apparently has sufficent leverage not to? Even a 3-year deal at $12M/$13M/$14M seems on the low side for this market. Granted he's getting older, but Lowell is coming off a very good year that continued through the postseason. This is probably his last big contract and there are a number of teams with need of a 3rd baseman. His situation is similar to Posada & Rivera, who appear to want to stay put but also be paid toward the top of the market. Not sure any of them will be had cheap.

Yes, so long as the other shiny thing answers to the name Buchholtz and has a major league no-hitter on his resume.

I think Ellsbury/Lester/Buchholz is too much, but I also don't think Florida considers the Sox offer without Buchholz in it. And I don't see the Sox trading Buchholz unless the return involves Johan Santana with a window to negotiate an extension (HA!).

Which basically means the Red Sox aren't getting Cabrera UNLESS a) Florida ownership says Cabrera has to go this offseason and b) no other team steps forward with a killer offer and something like Lester/Ellsbury/(not Buchholz) gets it done. The chances of either of these things happening seems pretty remote - let alone both.