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Didn't figure Lowell would go cheap but this seems high to me.
But then I am cheap............
Is this just because it's the first news that isn't terrible for a Yankee fan?
I'm now sure that Red Sox fans will tell me how he's the greatest 3Bman since George Brett.
Not on this site, they won't.
Surely he was one of the best 3B in the AL last year, though. (Though I hear there was this guy in New York...) The only concern for Sox fans is how he'll age.
But I can't tell from this article whether he's likely or unlikely to sign. Seems to be a good deal on both sides of that ledger.
Pretty much. But I like the idea of them locking into Lowell for 3 years and the price seems high to me, though cost is not all that relevant.
While a few extra million a year may seem attractive one has to wonder how Lowell will fair in a different environment.
I think not so well.
I would've figured him to be more like $9-12MM.
There aren't any top tier players on the market, except one who will be getting 30-35mm. I expect lowell will sign a 4 year deal for ATLEAST 60mm and probably not with the redsox.
Anyone who thinks that 3 years for 36-45mm is HIGH is drasticly overrating what talent will be going for this offseason.
I would actually say if Lowell took this deal it would be for a home town discount.
Among 3Bers -
2003: 4th in VORP (45.0)
2004: 6th in VORP (44.4)
2005: um, awful (-5.1!!!!)
2006: 13th in VORP (26.0)
2007: 6th in VORP (46.5)
Nothing wrong with being "2nd tier" when you put up those sorts of numbers, and the 1st tier contains some of the game's best hitters - A-Rod, Chipper, Miggy, Wright.
I actually think it's pretty reasonable, and I agree that it's probably a hometown discount. Hell, he made $9M last year on a contract he signed like 3 years ago. I'm surprised that people think this is a bad deal. This is what decent players cost.
How come nobody points out that all of these decent and above players were incredibly UNDERPAID for 3-4 years? Being a little "overpaid" at this stage in his career seems a reasonable deal for all involved.
Per year it might be the same, but ARam's contract was $75M / 5. The extra 2 years are key.
But don't forget that he had a .324 batting average, which was 30 points better than his previous career high.
Mind you I think he's been a good player -- and I agree he's been one of the best 3B in the league -- but I don't want to see them lock him up for his age 34-36 seasons in a year when ARod and Miguel Cabrera are available.
His total lack of speed -- he's one of the slowest players in the game -- also does not bode well for maintaining a decent batting average as he ages.
He killed the park this year, but hit much better on the road in 2006. Only .260/.327/.436 at home in 2006.
Well, he's come back from the dead already. BP's transaction analysis from Dec. '05 when the Sox suffered to take him:
And again from March '06:
Lowell somehow recouped a significant loss of power in '06 and '07. I don't understand his home-road splits, as I imagine him swatting doubles off the Wall, but he hit only 15 of of his 37 doubles at Fenway.
14 of his HR were over the Wall, with only 7 hit on the road.
But in '06 only 9 of his 20 HRs were at home (all over the Wall).
I don't think it'll be a bust, but that third year should be awkward.
Part of me believes that if the '05 Red Sox had gone all the way, we'd be now entering the third year of Bill Mueller's 3-year megadeal.
Yeah, but Ainge got to deal with Kevin McHale -- I don't see anybody in baseball nearly as dumb stupid as McHale.
Right, but in Ramirez's case, the entire contract is during his likely prime. He'll be the same age (or close) when that contract ends as Lowell is now.
I also think Cashman will feel Ok if the Yankees wind up with Betemit at 3b.
I don't think Lowell takes this deal, at least not without some changes, perhaps an extra year at a lower rate.
Well, technically, he *was* "on the free market" (he'd declared free agency when the Cubs signed him, and he signed very quickly after doing so--that whole sequence was kind of weird), but he admittedly took a hometown discount. Even if he'd gotten a richer deal, though, I'd much rather pay Ramirez $18M per year for ages 29-33 than pay Lowell $15M per year for ages 34-36.
? He's well-liked by both the fans and the players.
? Replacing him has costs. If done by trade, it costs talent. If done by FA, it costs money. However it's done, if the new guy doesn't work out (not much of a concern if it's someone like Alex Rodriguez or Miguel Cabrera -- quite a concern if it's someone like Jed Lowrie, Chris Carter, or Dan Johnson...), it will cost both in terms of public relations and in terms of wins.
? He's most likely got at least one good year left, and probably two. And sucking up the other one or two years is not a huge deal for Boston.
So, it makes sense to offer Lowell a deal that probably "overpays" him by a decent amount, but not by too much. This deal seems to qualify as that, and looks very fair to me. They shouldn't get swept up and offer any more than this, but this seems reasonable under the circumstances.
I agree with the first part of your sentence but not the second. Lowell is a nice player, but unless the Yankees want to make a blowout offer, I don't see Lowell getting much more than this elsewhere. The Phillies are the other team that might be motivated to give Lowell really big money.
Yeah, I think ARam's deal is a good deal. Lowell would be less good. Doesn't mean that it is absurd.
And his 77 OPS+ year looks like a complete aberration when compared with the rest of his career.
I guess Lowell just strikes me as the kind of player who's a bad risk to play well beyond his current age, but there's a good chance this would work out well for Boston for a year or two.
Part of my thinking, too, is that the Sox *do* have an inhouse replacement for Lowell in Youkilis--but then, of course, they need to find a first baseman. Is the market for 1Bs that thin? I haven't taken a gander at the FA list for a while. (Wonder if there's a feasible platoon that could be built fairly easily/cheaply...)
Assuming Lowell balks at the deal being "only" three years, that seems like the most likely outcome.
Lowrie/Carter/Moss/Youkilis
Also, if Lowell doesn't take this offer, I'd leave it on the table for the entire off season until he signs.
I REALLY REALLY wonder if some team is going to give him a 5 year megadeal. NOBODy in their right mind will want to pay for a 5th year of Mike Lowell.
Maybe, but that doesn't make it a good idea. Unless he wildly exceeds expectations, I sure wouldn't want to be stuck with his contract for his age-38 season.
Who do you think the Red Sox should sign for 3B then? Trade for?
I never said they shouldn't sign Lowell; he's probably good for another year or two of decent-to-very-good play, and for those years, he's likely their best option. I said I think a 5-year deal for him's stupid.
(And as I said--if Lowell's demands are too high, I suspect there's a passable first base platoon that can be cobbled together while moving Youkilis to third.)
Not unless Dombrowski gets 'em first.
and then dropped him the first week of April, for Bautista in Pittsburgh I think.
what a fool.
That's not feasible.
That's not feasible.
Agreed. Chris Carter and Brandon Moss will not play 1B for the Red Sox in 2008 for more than a few innings here or there. Neither is good enough. Lowrie may have a role before the season is out, but it's not going to be at 1st.
Probably something like 12 guaranteed and 3 or so in incentives.
Yes, so long as the other shiny thing answers to the name Buchholtz and has a major league no-hitter on his resume.
Seems low, unless the incentives are easy and even then would Lowell want to be the party to assume the risk of injury when he apparently has sufficent leverage not to? Even a 3-year deal at $12M/$13M/$14M seems on the low side for this market. Granted he's getting older, but Lowell is coming off a very good year that continued through the postseason. This is probably his last big contract and there are a number of teams with need of a 3rd baseman. His situation is similar to Posada & Rivera, who appear to want to stay put but also be paid toward the top of the market. Not sure any of them will be had cheap.
I think Ellsbury/Lester/Buchholz is too much, but I also don't think Florida considers the Sox offer without Buchholz in it. And I don't see the Sox trading Buchholz unless the return involves Johan Santana with a window to negotiate an extension (HA!).
Which basically means the Red Sox aren't getting Cabrera UNLESS a) Florida ownership says Cabrera has to go this offseason and b) no other team steps forward with a killer offer and something like Lester/Ellsbury/(not Buchholz) gets it done. The chances of either of these things happening seems pretty remote - let alone both.
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