Everyday Eddie!

Wah! THey don't think I know everything about pitching risks!

Not that there isn't any merit to this, but BPro has long gotten to the point where every 125 pitch outing draws a knee-jerk rant.

They ought to just have the rant pre-packaged, filling in blanks for the identity of the pitcher, the team, and precise number of pitches thrown.

Let me make this as clear as I possibly can.

That is utterly, completely, and colossally reckless, stupid, arrogant, and just plain lazy. Send in all the nasty emails calling me a geek who’s never played you like. Feel free to point out that ___________ is “just different”,”rubber armed”, or a “freak of nature”. It’s still mind-blowingly stupid, risky behavior. A couple of undeniable facts:

(1) People I respect have told me “__________ is just different.” Perhaps. But the truth of the matter is that you don’t know that. No one can tell me they know, with any reasonable degree of certainty, that ________ can stand up to mindless, pointless abuse better than anyone else. He might be less capable of doing so. We just don’t know.

(2) The gain for the ________ having _______ throw those extra pitches last night was zilch. Perhaps less. Those pitches could have been thrown by Carol Channing for all the real world value they had. For that matter, one of the kids could have been thrown out there and perhaps learned something.

Which shouldn't be, since they backed way down from PAP.

Not that there isn't any merit to this, but BPro has long gotten to the point where every 125 pitch outing draws a knee-jerk rant.

I'm pretty sure that if Jamie Moyer, Randy Johnson or even Roy Halladay throws 125 pitches, they aren't going to care.

It's when the pitcher is less than 25 years old that they get all crazy about it.

I'm pretty sure that if Jamie Moyer, Randy Johnson or even Roy Halladay throws 125 pitches, they aren't going to care.

Fine -- every pitcher under 25 years old.

I'm pretty sure that if Jamie Moyer, Randy Johnson or even Roy Halladay throws 125 pitches, they aren't going to care

I disagree. they still bitdh about that.

They happen to be 100% (I'd say more, but of course anyone who says anything like "He gave 110%" is just being stupid) right. I don't care if the risk to Lincecum in throwing 136 pitches is minimal, or unquantifiable. There was NO GAIN TO BE HAD, and thus no reason to take the minimal or unquantifiable risk. Dismiss B-Pro as Chicken Little if you like, and thus as a poor messenger. They are still carrying the right message here. In this case, with a team completely out of the race, they should treat one of the most valuable young arms in baseball in a no-risk manner.

I'm not saying they aren't right; I'm simply observing that every time it happens, you can expect an outraged BPro rant. They ought to just have one pre-written.

Lincecum's first two seasons look uncannily similar to Mark Prior's first two seasons. Just saying.

Those pitches could have been thrown by Carol Channing

Crucial September game: who do you want starting? Carol Channing, Angela Lansbury, or Chita Rivera?

Gwen Verdon would be the obvious go-to Broadway diva, but she has been deceased awhile.

Sam is correct. That is a self-righteous rant, but at the same time, there is no point in having Lincecum throw 138 pitches in September against the poor old Padres, of all teams. Even if it increases Linceum's chances of getting hurt by .001%, it was still dumb by Bochy.

I've carried around one variation or another of the "I Park Like An Idiot" (Link) bumper stickers and cards for quite a while. Perhaps BPro should get "I Manage Young Pitchers Recklessly" cards printed up and sent to the official scorers. Then they can just call them up and get them to take 'em down to the manager after the game.

Also, SF was up 7-0 against a bad offense in a pitcher's park. Even if they for some reason really cared about winning that game, any September scrub would have had a win probability of basically 1.

When Tim gets hurt next year, I will not laugh at some people, but I'll really want to...

When Tim gets hurt next year, I will not laugh at some people, but I'll really want to...

And when he doesn't?

They happen to be 100% (I'd say more, but of course anyone who says anything like "He gave 110%" is just being stupid) right. I don't care if the risk to Lincecum in throwing 136 pitches is minimal, or unquantifiable. There was NO GAIN TO BE HAD, and thus no reason to take the minimal or unquantifiable risk. Dismiss B-Pro as Chicken Little if you like, and thus as a poor messenger. They are still carrying the right message here. In this case, with a team completely out of the race, they should treat one of the most valuable young arms in baseball in a no-risk manner.

Sam is correct. That is a self-righteous rant, but at the same time, there is no point in having Lincecum throw 138 pitches in September against the poor old Padres, of all teams. Even if it increases Linceum's chances of getting hurt by .001%, it was still dumb by Bochy.

This is of course, utter nonesense. If this is your view, then just shut him down for the season. There is "nothing else to be gained". He's not going to "learn" more, and al l there is for Lincecum here on in *is* injury. So, this is a BS argument IMO.

Lincecum's first two seasons look uncannily similar to Mark Prior's first two seasons. Just saying.

You should see what BPro had to say about his likelihood of getting hurt...

This is of course, utter nonesense. If this is your view, then just shut him down for the season. There is "nothing else to be gained". He's not going to "learn" more, and al l there is for Lincecum here on in *is* injury. So, this is a BS argument IMO.

There's a difference between letting him pitch and letting him go 138 pitches. We do know that pitchers get injured, that sometimes this occurs through heavy usage, and that it happens more often to young arms. You can be less strident about it than the BP/PAP crew without going all Dusty Baker on everyone in your rotation.

So, this is a BS argument IMO

.

In a bad mood today?

It is "utter nonsense" if you assume a few things:

1. That the chances of getting hurt on every pitch are exactly the same. A lot of the PAP stuff is questionable, but the idea that pitching when already tired etc causes more strain makes sense to me.
2. That individual stats and awards mean nothing. Lincecum has a great shot at the CYA; he was out there to try to get a win.
3. That cost-benefit ratio and context are non-existent. The points are that:
a) The Giants had the game in hand
b) They were playing another non-contender. (b) is admittedly a very minor factor, but if it had been a 1-0 game in LA, it might make a little more sense. This makes none to me. Let Lincecum go 6 or 7 and let another guy finish up.

You can be less strident about it than the BP/PAP crew without going all Dusty Baker on everyone in your rotation.

I compeltely agree. I don't think this single incident is remotely deserving of the vitriol.

Szym used to beg for Lincecum to sue in this situation. Which is basically what Sam and Robin are saying is "reasonable".

You said this:

Even if it increases Linceum's chances of getting hurt by .001%, it was still dumb by Bochy.

Batting does that. Pitching at all is risky. There a reason the TINSTAAPP exists. Was it unnecessary? Certtainly, but Lincecum may well have wanted to throw those pitches and felt find. The knee-jerk "that's uncalled for" is what I am saying is uncalled for.

Sabathia was supposed to be hurt for good years ago. Sooner or later he'll have arm trouble *every* pitcher does. And then *AHA*. But it's not some "he's sure to be injured" and nor is it "that's the dumbest thing EVAR!" which the less stident complaints are. I am not arguing it was an unneccessary risk, but I am saying it wasn't nearly the risk you and Sam are going on about.

I was at the game last night and it was a treat getting to watch Lincecum pitch, most the game the Padres looked like they had no chance against him (only 2 hits before the 9th). 21 of the pitches were in the 9th, 14 after there were already 2 outs; would there had been this kind of outrage if one of the last few batters had popped out on the first pitch ending it a bit sooner? My guess is he might have wanted the complete game shutout so they let him finish, but I don't think he was going as hard in the 9th, which was part of the reason padres we finally able to get a few hits.

14 after there were already 2 outs

No, because if he throws 124 pitches, well, that's just "almost bad".

Crucial September game: who do you want starting? Carol Channing, Angela Lansbury, or Chita Rivera?

Rita Moreno.

Lincecum's first two seasons look uncannily similar to Mark Prior's first two seasons. Just saying.

Lincecum's motion looks nothing like Mark Prior's motion.

Which is basically what Sam and Robin are saying is "reasonable".

You are misrading me. Note that I also called Huckabay out for his tone. I think Bochy should have pulled Lincecum and let someone else finish. End of story. I see no cost to that and no benefit to keeping The Freak in the game. This is not 1968, when pitchers were supposed to go for the CG.

Sabathia was supposed to be hurt for good years ago. Sooner or later he'll have arm trouble *every* pitcher does. And then *AHA*. But it's not some "he's sure to be injured" and nor is it "that's the dumbest thing EVAR!" which the less stident complaints are. I am not arguing it was an unneccessary risk, but I am saying it wasn't nearly the risk you and Sam are going on about.

But couldn't Sabathia be used as an example of the benefits to a young pitcher of limiting his number of pitches in a game? Sabathia has been pitching 30+ starts per season ever since he was 20, but only exceeded 120 pitches in a game (regular season) 5 times before turning 25, and never exceeded 130 pitches in a game. You could make the argument that the Sabathia of 2008 is reaping the benefits from the kid's glove treatment in his early 20's. Not that I necessarily think it's true, but you could make that argument.

When Tim gets hurt next year, I will not laugh at some people, but I'll really want to...

And when he doesn't?

The I will be happy for him, because this stupidity didn't cost him...

b)...if it had been a 1-0 game in LA, it might make a little more sense. This makes none to me. Let Lincecum go 6 or 7 and let another guy finish up.

To me, the fact that it was a game that was well in hand actually makes it less of a risk to keep him out there. I mean, if it's a 1-0 ballgame, and he lets up the two baserunners in the ninth, that's a lot more stress on the pitcher. In fact, since the Giants went up 2-0 in the 1st, it was a fairly breezy game for Lincecum all the way through. Still wish he'd come out after 8, but there you go.

BigO-

Fair point, but sometimes you hear the "intergrity of the pennant races" argument--bad teams should play whatever their best hand is if they are opposing a team in the race, etc. That obviously did not apply to SF/SD last night.

The one data point that suggests Lincecum actually is different is that he threw 127 pitches in the start before, and still looked plenty strong in the ninth last night. The guy is a phenomenal athlete.

That said, obviously it was an unnecessary risk to take with a 24-year-old arm. I'm pretty sure it's Lincecum who's been lobbying Bochy for a complete game.

While BP are always knee-jerk about this, Lincecum has indeed been overworked and is indeed showing signs of wear. Viz this Tim Lincecum 2008 wear pattern chart. His velo is down on the year. He's young. His arm is important to future years, but unimportant this year. Only an idiot leaves him in for the 8th, to say nothing of the 9th.

Nobody ever went broke betting on the Giants being idiots.

While BP are always knee-jerk about this, Lincecum has indeed been overworked and is indeed showing signs of wear. Viz this Tim Lincecum 2008 wear pattern chart. His velo is down on the year. He's young. His arm is important to future years, but unimportant this year. Only an idiot leaves him in for the 8th, to say nothing of the 9th.

Do you have that chart for any other pitcher? That actually looks better than average to me -- he's lost about 1-2 MPH on his fastball over the course of the year, and it's flattened a tiny bit. Neither of those seems particularly drastic. Of particular note, he hasn't really lost anything off his fastball in the starts after he's thrown a lot of pitches.

This is of course, utter nonesense. If this is your view, then just shut him down for the season. There is "nothing else to be gained".

Not a bad idea.

Chris, what is the argument for having him go 138 in a meaningless game?

As to "BPro's attitude" towards this kind of stuff, I really only read Sheehan and Huckabay (who doesn't write much), but Sheehan does not freak out every time a pitcher goes 125. He's been arguing the last couple of years that teams have become _overly_ cautious with respect to pitchers. As far as I can tell Sheehan basically thinks that (1) young pitchers should be handled with care, and (2) older pitchers can be ridden a bit as long as they're not being subjected to high-pitch outing after high-pitch outing in game situations where they could be pulled earlier.

If this had happned to Lincecum in a pennant race, in a close game, and he was otherwise being rested down the stretch when the game situation allowed, I doubt you'd hear much screaming from BP.

Crucial September game: who do you want starting? Carol Channing, Angela Lansbury, or Chita Rivera?

Do you mean Paul McCartney?

I think there is huge value in letting him go 9 here and get his first complete game and first shutout. This can be a tremendous boost in confidence for a young pitcher. He's now got this experience to go on the next time he's asked to do this, when it might matter. I hold zero stock in the idea that you shouldn't use someone, just because the games don't matter to making the playoffs. In that case, he should not have pitched all year, as they Giants weren't going to make the playoffs at all. Just sit him down and wait until they are good. Heck, cancel the minors too, the young fragile prospects might get hurt there too.

He was dealing, as usual, last night. His mechanics in the 9th were as perfect as they were at any point in the game. From what we've seen, breakdown in mechanics is much more of a risk than just the pure number of pitches. And really, every pitcher is different. I don't think that Tim has suffered through any "dead arm" period this season, as he probably would if he were unduly fatigued.

If this had happned to Lincecum in a pennant race, in a close game, and he was otherwise being rested down the stretch when the game situation allowed, I doubt you'd hear much screaming from BP.

This is nonsense, especially the close game part. If he'd really been fatigued, then there's plenty of room for error in a game with a big lead, and therefore this is a lot lower stress.

Again, there's real value in having this in his back pocket when it is a game that matters more. It is always easier to do something that you've done before.

I think there is huge value in letting him go 9 here and get his first complete game and first shutout. This can be a tremendous boost in confidence for a young pitcher.

Sorry, but this argument jumped the shark long ago. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in the league. He doesn't need a "boost in confidence," and it's ludicrous to state that he does.

He was dealing, as usual, last night. His mechanics in the 9th were as perfect as they were at any point in the game.

This argument has jumped the shark also (see Prior, Mark). Take it back.

"Take it back"?

"Take it back"?

Yes. To whatever Land of Bad Arguments it came from.

Mark Prior's mechanics, as noted by people with an understanding in human biomechanics, has been shown to be awful. He was much more likely to get hurt by repetitively throwing with a lousy motion, even if he had been babied.

Lincecum's mechanics effectively transmit force through the ball with minimal wear on the body.

And pitchers are different, just as athletes of all stripes are. Some people can run marathons, others cannot.

The argument that he can't use a boost in confidence just cause he's the best is ridiculous. I'm sure that you've had to do something in your life that was very hard. And when you successfully complete it, it helps make it easier the next time you face it. This was a low stress way to get that experience. In a few years, if the Giants are competitive, they might need to call on him to pitch a high stress, close game. This will help him.

And pitch counts are not the be all, end all statistic. Quit playing that they are. This is not to say that they don't have some value, but they are just one tool to determine when to take a guy out. There are other ways to tell if a guy is fatigued, and therefore increasing his potential for injury. Like a breakdown in his mechanics. Tim was still throwing mid-90s just as easily as he had in the middle of the game. He was not unduly fatigued.

Agree on the overreaction thing. Dustbag destroyed Prior and Wood. Like it was consistent abuse, and against their health/history background to keep throwing them out there for 8/9 innings.

They can't shut Lincecum down. They need him to get his innings up more in line with his history. He was off the pace last year. So this is the 2nd time up to 130. That's not consistent. At 24-25 needs to get to his peak, not baby-sat like some 18 year old. Regardless of the team's record, this IS his career. Lincecum also not your everyday pitcher with conventional mechanics. His have the potential to be revolutionary in regard to durability. His history so far supports that.

Hey, SF doesn't have much, not a particularly adept club, but imagine their thinking along those lines to both to protect and exercise their one superb asset. Hey, they have to know its their one superb asset.

And pitchers are different,

Indeed. There are pitchers who are injured and pitchers who will become injured.

There are pitchers who are injured and pitchers who will become injured.

And pitchers who beat up their girlfriends.

I'd like to hear from Mike Marshall on this.

I'd like to hear from Mike Marshall on this.

Yeah, but are you educated enough to understand him if you do?

Maybe, not, rr. Touche.

Maybe, not, rr. Touche.

I was bagging on Marshall, not you.

Yeah, but I'm relatively undereducated compared to sme on this board. I have a BA and that's it. Well, I'm an autodidact about some stuff, but I'm not that great of a teacher.

I love it when people pretend to know how pitchers get hurt. Just making #### up and pretending you are smart. No one knows.

Daly, remember that Marshall is saying that MDs are not "sufficiently scientifically educated" to properly understand his theories. I doubt there's a regular poster here that he would consider well educated enough to "understand" him.

How much of this might have been due to Linececum aiming to lock up the Cy Young award?

I love it when people pretend to know how pitchers get hurt. Just making #### up and pretending you are smart. No one knows.

My wildass guess is that pitchers' careers tend to suffer after throwing back-to-back-to-back 200 pitch games. And not, after throwing an 80 pitch game. Let's go from there.

Again, there's real value in having this in his back pocket when it is a game that matters more. It is always easier to do something that you've done before.

Oh please. He won't even have a chance to do this again for another 7 months at the earliest. Oh, OK, the Giants might leave him out there for 140 in his next start for all I know.

Game 7, 2013 World Series, Giants ahead 1-0 after 8:

"Tim, you've pitched a great game but I need you for one more inning."

"I don't know if I can Coach."

"Don't be silly. Remember that game in Sept of 08 when we were beating the Pads 7-0 en route to losing 90 games ... remember throwing 138 pitches. 138 Tim!!"

"Thanks Coach, now I'm brimming with confidence."

"Scott Boras, what are you doing here?"

"I've got a court order preventing you from sending my client out to pitch the 9th inning. He's an FA in another 2 weeks and we are looking at $100 M a year."

"Crap! OK, get Luis Ayala warming up."

And thus did the KC/OC Royals win the 2013 World Series.

I hold zero stock in the idea that you shouldn't use someone, just because the games don't matter to making the playoffs. In that case, he should not have pitched all year, as they Giants weren't going to make the playoffs at all. Just sit him down and wait until they are good. Heck, cancel the minors too, the young fragile prospects might get hurt there too.

Or alternatively, instead of going to either extreme, teams can try to push their young pitchers, to get them to develope, while at the same time still trying not to push them to the point when they are overreaching / overtraining.

OK, Kohlman. It was just a throwaway joke.

There is a thin line here, and I think you have to trust your manager to know it. There is obvious value for experience in the majors in a lost season.
And I am going to paraphrase Tom Glavine on this ( and it is representative of my views ). he was asked about the Braves handling of Jurrjens, as he has now thrown over 30ip than he ever has in a year.
His comment was that the Braves are well aware of his work load, but they think this lost season is a perfect time for him to work out how to pitch when he is tired, and how to pitch when he doesn't have his best stuff. Because when you are in a pennant race, and maybe you are pitching in October, you will HAVE to deal with this.

I agree with Glavine here. As long as the pitcher and the management are aware of what they are trying to achieve, we should trust them.

He entered the ninth with 118 pitches. Pitching what some might say was the best start of his career (he did end with a career high Game Score of 88). Definitely a major contender for the CYA, but still looking for his first career shutout.

I can see why they left him in, and I can see why after he got the first two batters out they left him in.

But with two of his previous three starts at >125, it's a call you just don't make. If you want to think about stats and awards, by far the main thing for him was the win, and he was going to get that.

As someone pointed out, Lincecum's usage pattern at ages 23 and 24 is not unlike that of Prior and Wood. This one start in the context of everything else is worthy of concern. The automatic alarm sounded by the folks at BPro may indeed sound like a broken record, but Huckabay has a point.

This is meant as neither as a pro or con the pitch count argument, but, there are so many other variables when it comes to pitching "wear and tear" that I wonder why we use the counting stat called "pitch count" as the main indicator of it.

As someone pointed out, Lincecum's usage pattern at ages 23 and 24 is not unlike that of Prior and Wood.

Fine. How's it compare to Roger Clemens or Tom Seaver?

I'm sure there are as many counterexamples as there are examples.

This is meant as neither as a pro or con the pitch count argument, but, there are so many other variables when it comes to pitching "wear and tear" that I wonder why we use the counting stat called "pitch count" as the main indicator of it.

Because it's available?

Agreed..

But for example, I saw a Lincecum start where he threw 2 88-mph Fastballs. Saw a pitcher w/ 2 intentional walks in an inning. These pitches count for "pitch count", but, should they?

Just wondering

This is meant as neither as a pro or con the pitch count argument, but, there are so many other variables when it comes to pitching "wear and tear" that I wonder why we use the counting stat called "pitch count" as the main indicator of it.

Because it's easy. Huckabay probably has most of this rant in autotext. Adding context would be hard. People don't like hard.

Hopefully people that matter look at things with a little more nuance.

Lincecum's mechanics effectively transmit force through the ball with minimal wear on the body.

We clearly have a battle of the experts here, because most baseball people (scouting/coaching types) I have talked to think Lincecum's motion is an injury waiting to happen, and lots are surprised that he hasn't blown up already. Many of those also thought Prior's were great. There is no single school of thought with regards to pitching mechanics.

"We clearly have a battle of the experts here, because most baseball people (scouting/coaching types) I have talked to think Lincecum's motion is an injury waiting to happen, and lots are surprised that he hasn't blown up already.

Two points: 1) I'm glad you said "most baseball people" and not "all baseball people"
2) What does "injury waiting to happen" mean?

Let me ask you this, did John Smoltz "break down"? Did Nolan Ryan?

You could argue either way I think and you'd still be right.

Anyone who thinks Prior's mechanics are better than Linecum is crazy. Linecum has perfect mechanics. But this was retarded.



Also everyone arguing that this wasn't "that bad" is displaying horrifically awful logic. This thread is a smorgasboard of terrible fallacies.

Fine. How's it compare to Roger Clemens or Tom Seaver?

How does it compare to Ramon Martinez? Or Ismael Valdez? Or Britt Burns? Or Jim Nash? Or Don Gullett? Or Gary Nolan? Or Dave Boswell? Or Larry Dierker? Or Joe Coleman? Or Dennis Blair? Or Fausto Carmona? Or Mike Witt? Or Dan Petry? Or Steve Busby?

How's Jeremy Bonderman doing? How about Dontrelle Willis, looking good right?

Point's been made above, but it's worth repeating. All pitchers get injured. All pitching produces injury. Whether a pitcher gets sufficiently injured to prevent him from pitching effectively in the future is definitely down to physiology and mechanics, as well as proper training and health care, but anyone who pitches will get injured, will be constantly injured.

Furthermore, the historical lesson should not be lost on anyone. Most good or great young pitchers break long, long before they wear out. Some, like John Patterson, break down the first year you ride them hard. Some, like Britt Burns, give you a couple of years. Others like Mike Witt give you four or five good or better years before they start to malfunction and misfire.

Some, like Carlos Zambrano seems to (and Zambrano would be a great example for Dusty's defenders to reach for here) never feel anything, possibly because he was programmed by his constructors not to feel pain or other non-rage human emotions.

And most good or great young pitchers get injured, and most pitchers destined for the Hall of Fame and greatness (like a decent chunk of that list above) never make it, or come close to making it. It's not a manager's job, I grant you, to help put his players in the Hall of Fame. But I will say now that Tim Lincecum this year is having Shawn Estes's 1997. And Dusty was a lot more careful with Estes then than he is with Lincecum now. Maybe they'll get lucky - they have so far.

Two points: 1) I'm glad you said "most baseball people" and not "all baseball people"

'Cause it's not all. Some people think his motion reduces stress.

2) What does "injury waiting to happen" mean?</i>

I think what they mean is that other pitchers, if they tried to do what he does, would break something. Probably somewhere delicate. Which of course they would, but it doesn't say anything in my view about Lincecum. I am just relating what others say.

But I also don't believe guff I read in Sports Illustrated about his dad's "expert" views on mechanics. Obviously, CBW, I think you're very smart about the mechanics of pitching, but you're not a physiologist, are you?

Again... all pitching produces injury to tissue. It seems to me (as a layman) that the body's ability to respond, to repair that damage and be ready for the next time it has to pitch, is the key to avoiding injury - because if you're not better by the next time you go out, you'll either be creating progressive damage or setting yourself up for the kind of weakening of the tissue that can produce catastrophic injury.

Linecum has perfect mechanics.

Isn't Lincecum the guy who "leaps" more than drives off the rubber? Isn't he the guy that CBW ... ahh, hell, here ya go ...

I'm almost too giddy in praise of Tim Lincecum. The power he can generate out of a 5'10", 155 lb body is just plain ridiculous. Of course, there's injury risk. He's young, he's aggressive, and his mechanics are uncommon. We know a little about his college workload. I can see why some may shy away from someone like this. Like I said in the draft review,
Might scare some, doesn’t scare me.

CBW is full of praise, but notes his mechanicss are uncommon (not "perfect") and that some (as in pitching coaches, scouts, etc. one assumes, not fantasy lunkheads) would shy away.

This is stupid. I'm not a big fan of pitch counts, but this game was exceedingly meaningless.

And really, not one comment on the 2013 KC/OC Royals? I must be losing my touch.

(cue John Brattain :-)

I love it when people pretend to know how pitchers get hurt. Just making #### up and pretending you are smart. No one knows.

No, we know exactly how pitchers get hurt. They tear their labrums. They get bone floating in the elbow joint. Their rotator cuffs tear or get weak.

You're looking for the proximate cause? The first proximate cause is pitching. These injuries are rare in those who don't pitch (or otherwise throw) a lot. So we know, incontrovertably, that pitching causes injury. And pitching more causes more injury... most of the evidence we have for this is in young people, but the evidence is stark. Those who pitch more (more innings, and/or more frequently, and/or for longer periods during the year) will get injured more often.

What else do we know? There is excellent evidence in the easily available literature that poor or improper warmup leads to catastrophic injury (full-on tears, sprains (i.e. partial tears), etc.). We know that overuse or over-pitching leads to soreness, swelling, and all the signs of microtearing that will, if what we know about the physiology of tissues is correct, at least temporarily weaken the tissue, increasing the chance of catastrophic injury.

And finally, we know at least anecdotally that pitching while fatigued is dangerous. Hellish dangerous. (I don't know how much of this has been demonstrated empirically - difficult to do) There seem to be two reasons that are interacting there. One is that fatigue leads to a breakdown in mechanical precision, because the interlocking elements that make up a pitching delivery don't function or fire as well when the body (or those body parts) is fatigued. The second is that fatigue is a sign that the tissue is losing its ability to perform due to internal damage that has occurred to it. And we know, again anecdotally but also incontrovertably, that fatigue for all pitchers increases as one pitches more.

So we do know some things about how pitchers get hurt.

And really, not one comment on the 2013 KC/OC Royals? I must be losing my touch.

(cue John Brattain :-)

What, just 'cause one of you geezers that's lost whatever little touch you once had shows up, all of you have to? :)

I think an important point is being missed, (or not discussed enough).

WHY did they think Lincecum had to have a CG Shutout? Because some Cy young voters are too stupid to know he already has a body of work this season that makes him clearly the best pitcher in the NL for the year, with or without a CG Shutout on his resume? He was going to get the 17th win anyway. He's still going to lead the league in ERA and K's. But SOME writers have probably written that since he doesn't complete games, or have a shutout, he is inferior to Webb this year, which is of course nonsense.

Last 4 outings

138
132
92
127

All in the pursuit of the elusive CG which shouldn't even matter anyway...but does because the people who are entrusted to hand out the most prestigious awards don't understand how to properly assign value.

I hate the BBWAA awards more and more each day.

And I should add that this...

No one knows.

is exactly the reason why the San Francisco Giants should probably be careful with their hundred-million-dollar asset. Because we don't know everything, and it would help to get a little clearer on what's potentially at stake before we take a suitcase full of $100,000 bills and throw it in San Francisco Bay to see if it floats.

I'm no slave to pitch counts, but this is pretty clearly indefensible. He threw 132 pitches on August 27 and 127 in his previous start (September 8). This guy is my favorite pitcher and I'm planning to get MLB Season Ticket next year largely so I can see him regularly. Somewhat selfishly, I prefer his arm still be attached to his body next April.

I hate the BBWAA of awards more and more each day.

Well, I hear that. But this is Bochy's fault. Ridiculous.

J. Low--#68 and #72 are phenomenal posts. I wasn't arguing w/ you earlier, just trying to find out what "leading to injury" might mean in your book, cuz like you pointed out, most every pitcher gets hurt at one point or another. And no, I'm certainly not a physiologist.

Walt---Had to bring that out huh? LOL. You forgot the last line, that said, IIRC (too lazy to look it up right now) "not when you're this efficient with your mechanics."

Again... all pitching produces injury to tissue. It seems to me (as a layman) that the body's ability to respond, to repair that damage and be ready for the next time it has to pitch, is the key to avoiding injury - because if you're not better by the next time you go out, you'll either be creating progressive damage or setting yourself up for the kind of weakening of the tissue that can produce catastrophic injury.

Are you saying the only way that pitchers can be healthy, long term, is to use steroids?


::ahhhhh::

J. Low--#68 and #72 are phenomenal posts. I wasn't arguing w/ you earlier, just trying to find out what "leading to injury" might mean in your book, cuz like you pointed out, most every pitcher gets hurt at one point or another. And no, I'm certainly not a physiologist.

Walt---Had to bring that out huh? LOL. You forgot the last line, that said, IIRC (too lazy to look it up right now) "not when you're this efficient with your mechanics."
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Man I love when ChadBradfordWannabe is in Da House.

I believe that Lincecum is a freak of nature and his mechanics are pretty damn sound. He might break down eventually but that happens to all pitchers. I don't think he should be compared with Prior.

CBW : thanks. I've been indebted to your earlier analysis of Lincecum in talking with some of these people. He's the most unique talent I've seen in the game in... I can't remember. A long, long time. I'm fascinated by him, and it seems like a lot of others are too. I was hoping you knew more about physiology (that was an question, not a challenge BTW) because I'd like to have an in-depth discussion with someone who knows this stuff, specifically about him.

I strongly suspect that he won't last three more seasons. But that's just me... I know that young pitchers will break your heart. And I know that over and over again, when you give baseball people a toy they will convince themselves that they can't break it. And they do.

Lincecum's first two seasons look uncannily similar to Mark Prior's first two seasons. Just saying.

Yeah, but Prior had perfect mechanics, so this pitch count wouldn't have been a concern in his case.

Ah, I should've guessed--the ensuing discussion made my lame joke in 82 even lamer. Damn you all.

Are you saying the only way that pitchers can be healthy, long term, is to use steroids?

Well, in the short (and possibly medium) term it probably wouldn't hurt. And there are some who never do get seriously hurt, who always manage to stay in control of the progressive injury caused by pitching and who always manage to recover. "Healthy" for a pitcher isn't "not getting injured"... it's just "never being too injured to perform well".

But even pitchers who do take steroids break down and get hurt, so that's no bullet.

And Dusty was a lot more careful with Estes then than he is with Lincecum now. Maybe they'll get lucky - they have so far.

I find this a fitting end to that rambling post of wild speculation. I think your the first to blame Dusty for Lincecum. Congrats.

Nobody can look at a specific pitcher a determine what will keep them most healthy. The current trend of less innings, less pitches has only yielded guys can pitch less and break down even easier. Which should surprise no one.

WHY did they think Lincecum had to have a CG Shutout? Because some Cy young voters are too stupid to know he already has a body of work this season that makes him clearly the best pitcher in the NL for the year, with or without a CG Shutout on his resume? He was going to get the 17th win anyway. He's still going to lead the league in ERA and K's. But SOME writers have probably written that since he doesn't complete games, or have a shutout, he is inferior to Webb this year, which is of course nonsense.

If the Giants made him throw 138 pitches in order to impress the writers, then the Giants are even stupider than the writers are.

because I'd like to have an in-depth discussion with someone who knows this stuff, specifically about him.

You and me both. I'm also fascinated, though that's probably an obvious one.

The current trend of less innings, less pitches has only yielded guys can pitch less and break down even easier. Which should surprise no one.

Or maybe hitters give tougher and longer ABs, pitchers throw harder nowadays---hence more forces/torques/stresses on the joints/ligaments/every single part of the body.

pep---thx. This is always fun. Trust me, I'm here more often that you think. Although I should really get back on finishing up my Mets reports..... I'll give an easy one. David Wright--20 to 80

I find this a fitting end to that rambling post of wild speculation. I think your the first to blame Dusty for Lincecum. Congrats.

The lesson is, I am an idiot. (I'm mad at Dusty for something else any my wires got crossed). That should read "Dusty was more careful than the Giants are now".

Nobody can look at a specific pitcher a determine what will keep them most healthy.

I'm agnostic about that; but I know that I at least can only speak about generalities, yes.

The current trend of less innings, less pitches has only yielded guys can pitch less and break down even easier.

I've seen recent studies that say more good pitchers pitch longer into their careers than ever before - I will try to dig up a reference. That may be due to advances in medical technology and not due to lesser workloads. We are not finding the 250-inning horses at the same rate that we used to, that is true.

The survival record of young pitchers in prior decades was appalling. I say that anecdotally, but believe me, that list above was easy to compile and there are dozens and dozens more. I don't know if we're any better but we are certainly no worse.

We are not finding the 250-inning horses at the same rate that we used to, that is true.

It's always worth pointing out that innings are a very poor measure of actual workload, especially across eras. Innings are not created equally. And with offenses focusing more on OBP, pitchers on K's and less bunting and basestealing, there are more pitches thrown per PA, and more PA's per inning these days, than there used to be in the past.

And really, not one comment on the 2013 KC/OC Royals? I must be losing my touch

Sorry, but the thought of Luis Ayala in a close game made me weep.

Bochy:

"When he came in after the eighth inning, you knew how bad he wanted to finish it," Bochy said Sunday. "It's like kids growing up. Sometimes it's the time. You extend the curfew, [let them] get on a bike, whatever. And I thought it was the time. If I had taken him out, he would have felt he didn't have a good game.

"I told him he was killing me, though, putting me in that spot."

"That's big for a pitcher to get that first shutout," Bochy said.

Bochy also acknowledged that Lincecum's Cy Young Award candidacy entered his mind. Lacking a complete game, Bochy reasoned, might hamper Lincecum's chances against Arizona's Brandon Webb, the other top contender for the distinction.

"I didn't want that in the record when they talk about Cy Young votes," Bochy said.

If the Giants made him throw 138 pitches in order to impress the writers, then the Giants are even stupider than the writers are.

......

Bochy also acknowledged that Lincecum's Cy Young Award candidacy entered his mind. Lacking a complete game, Bochy reasoned, might hamper Lincecum's chances against Arizona's Brandon Webb, the other top contender for the distinction.

"I didn't want that in the record when they talk about Cy Young votes," Bochy said.

Nuff said.

Walt---Had to bring that out huh? LOL.

Eh? That wasn't meant as an embarrassment to you. I just remembered you saying that (1) you loved his mechanics but (2) they were quite unorthodox and would be disliked by a lot of other pitching mechanic experts (not to mention "experts"). It was a reaction to someone else's comment about his "perfect" mechanics and "anyone who thinks Prior...".

As I think I said at the time, my concern would be with the landing leg which just seems to me must be taking a huge pounding every pitch. (That's not based on knowledge of body mechanics, it's based on "ooh, that looks like a lot of force for that knee, foot, etc. to take.")

Still, I'd be OK with it if the Cubs trade, oh, Ryan Theriot for him. :-)

If Giants fans wonder why their team is in such dismal shape, last night was a microcosm of it.

The Giants are in dismal shape because they have been almost completely unable to produce position players from their farm system over the past 15 years. There are signs that that is changing. Meanwhile they have produced plenty of good pitching - and more is on the way. So no, handling the pitching is really not the major problem.

That said, I don't agree with leaving Lincecum in there that long, because he's The Franchise and god forbid anything should happen. I do think Matt Cain has been overworked over the past couple of years which has caused him trouble. On the other hand I trust the judgement of Righetti and Bochy over Huckabay's formulaic rants. Felipe Alou is no longer handling the pitching.

#95---Walt..LOL, I'm not embarrassed. I'm actually quite proud of nailing that one based on a 3-minute draft video and subsequent writeup (toot, toot).

Good times, good times.

If the Giants made him throw 138 pitches

the giants didn't "make him". Lincecum, well aware of the risks, wanted to throw them. He's not a child.

the first Bochy quote is a good one. I think the risk is overstated. For that one start. It'd be better if he didn't do it three of four games.

Point's been made above, but it's worth repeating. All pitchers get injured. All pitching produces injury. Whether a pitcher gets sufficiently injured to prevent him from pitching effectively in the future is definitely down to physiology and mechanics, as well as proper training and health care, but anyone who pitches will get injured, will be constantly injured.

Furthermore, the historical lesson should not be lost on anyone. Most good or great young pitchers break long, long before they wear out. Some, like John Patterson, break down the first year you ride them hard. Some, like Britt Burns, give you a couple of years. Others like Mike Witt give you four or five good or better years before they start to malfunction and misfire.

This is a general medical theme, I think. We know a lot, at the moment, in generalities as expressed by JLAC above and throughout the site by CBW. In the rest of medicine, for example,we know smoking leads to lung cancer; we know that a poor diet and lack of exercise leads to heart disease; we know that lifelong alcoholics (those who drink a lot until they're old) tend to have liver damage. But the particulars still escape us. We don't know why some guy who smokes for 60 years never develop acute lung problems or why some other guy who smokes a bit or inhales some second hand smoke gets lung cancer in his early 40s. It's all or mostly genetics and we're in early days in that field of study. I think someday it will be possible to examine a young pitcher and say with some certainty what type of workload they can manage given proper training. We're not there yet. I think it's safe to say that in general limiting pitch counts and innings and consecutive days in young pitchers is a very good idea but that there will always be the freak who violates those rules and pitches 20 years in MLB. Unfortunately, most coaches (I definitely include college, high school and other amateurs here) will believe their guy is a freak.

Anyone who thinks Prior's mechanics are better than Linecum is crazy. Linecum has perfect mechanics.

People said the same thing about Prior's mechanics before he broke down.

Fine. How's it compare to Roger Clemens or Tom Seaver?

The evidence is pretty well-documented that heavy workloads, particularly at a young age, are correlated with pitching injury. See the work by Craig Wright, Keith Woolner, others.

I definitely agree that being shrill about a single start has little basis, and that it accomplishes nothing. However, there is more than enough justification to raise questions about Lincecum's overall usage pattern in what is otherwise a terrible team season. Is this the price one pays for fame and a CYA? Should the Giants ride their one E-ticket feature in a season that is otherwise a dud? I think the historical answer to those questions is probably yes, but I think if I were a Giants fan, I would rather see him handled a bit more carefully.