Colletti traded Jake Arrieta?

Colletti traded Josh Bell.

Carlos Santana is the Indians number 1 prospect, Josh Bell is the O's 2nd best prospect, so Trayvon Robinson will be somebody's 3rd best prospect.

Carlos Santana is the Indians number 1 prospect, Josh Bell is the O's 2nd best prospect, so Traybon Robinson will be somebody's 3rd best prospect.

And people say he's not improving.

The Hobgood pick continues to rankle me. I fail to see how a team can go cheap after coming off consecutive years of drafting the best player available and being rewarded with Wieters and Matusz.

The prospect list isn't that interesting since Matusz isn't really a prospect, and the rest of the group is solid, but unispiring. The top 10 under 25 inspires a little more hope (although it's not enough to rate in the AL East), and it doesn't even include Markakis and Reimold, who missed the cut by 6 months.

Also, the Felix Pie placement is sure to raise some eyebrows. Pie had a very good second half, for those that didn't notice.

Top 10 Talents 25 and Under (Born 4/1/84 or later)
1. Matt Wieters, C
2. Adam Jones, CF
3. Chris Tillman, RHP
4. Brian Matusz, LHP
5. Felix Pie, OF
6. Josh Bell, 3B
7. Jake Arrieta, RHP
8. Zach Britton, LHP
9. Matt Hobgood, RHP
10. Brandon Erbe, RHP

Matt Wieters fathered that entire list

Colletti traded Josh Bell.

Carlos Santana is the Indians number 1 prospect, Josh Bell is the O's 2nd best prospect, so Trayvon Robinson will be somebody's 3rd best prospect.

Ah. But count the rings!

The Hobgood pick continues to rankle me. I fail to see how a team can go cheap after coming off consecutive years of drafting the best player available and being rewarded with Wieters and Matusz.

The Hobgood pick is especially disappointing after seeing Matzek sign with the Rockies for far less than "Porcello money." And I believe Wheeler ended up signing for far less than what he was initially seeking. Given that there was less than a $1M price difference between Wheeler and Hobgood, I wish the O's would have ponied up the extra money and taken the better talent especially since Matzek and Wheeler were bluffing. Or given that the price tag difference between Hobgood and Crow was about $2M, the O's should taken Crow and eliminate some of the injury risk associated with high school pitchers. Is Hobgood's upside beyond much what Crow is today?

who's better than hobgood? i had him as a 15-45th overall pick, but i absolutely loved the package of what he brings on the mound, and i see him being a very good starter. his FB is gonna be awesome, and the 1-2 punch with his curve is about the most you can expect from a prepster.

one more thing, what the hell is felix pie doing anywhere near that second list, let alone ranking higher than bell and arrieta?

one more thing, where's matt angle on this list?

Enough already about Josh Bell and Josh Barfield, when are we gonna discuss Josh Moseby! Moseby gets no credit!

Matt Wieters fathered that entire list

He also mothered them. And is also them. It's called the All You Zombies method of player development.

one more thing, what the hell is felix pie doing anywhere near that second list, let alone ranking higher than bell and arrieta?

What? Felix Pie was a 24 year old who posted 763 OPS in MLB with centerfield defensive tools and a pretty good minor league track record and he shouldn't be on the list? Did he kill your cat?

Josh Bell at age 22 posted a lower OPS in AA than Pie did in AAA at the same age, nevermind the fact that Bell is a 1b/3b instead of a CF. At age 21 Bell was posting an 828 OPS in the hitter friendly, high-A Cal League while Pie was posting a 792 mark in AAA.
Not that OPS is the best tool to evaluate hitting prospects, but it gives you a quick and easy way of pointing out that Pie has been a better player pretty much every year than Josh Bell.

Also, Matt Angle? Really? Are we talking about the same guy?
I've got a soft spot for the guy (at least as much as I can for a Buckeye) but what about him makes you think he is anywhere near the level of the rest of those players.

I liked Hobgood quite a bit. He was a bit of a reach, but honestly, after the first few picks there was a pretty big gulf in talent. I have less of a problem with going for the signability pick when there isn't a huge difference between the #5 player on the board and the #25 player on the board.

He has a good build (weight could become an issue, but there have been lots of good fat pitchers), he already has pretty decent command and he seems a lot more polished than most HS pitchers. Maybe his upside isn't as high as Matzek or Wheeler, but it seems like the O's already have pitchers with tons of upside.

Givens was the big gamble. He could become an All-Star shortstop, or a journeyman minor league reliever. But that's a nice gamble for a supplementary round pick.

Is Hobgood's upside beyond much what Crow is today?

I don't think Crow has a ton of upside. Most seem to project him as a solid #3, maybe a #2. And he's a lot older than Hobgood, so the clock is ticking a bit quicker on him. And he missed a year of ball.

Colletti traded Josh Bell.

Nothing wrong with George Sherrill.

Looks like the O's have some talent. But I notice that other than (former Cub) Felix Pie (In Your Face Nick Swisher), Baltimore doesn't have any Latin players among its prospects. Is it the case that the Orioles have not been mining the Caribbean for talent lately? Or just that nothing much has bubbled up for them from down there?

Also, Matt Angle? Really? Are we talking about the same guy?
I've got a soft spot for the guy (at least as much as I can for a Buckeye) but what about him makes you think he is anywhere near the level of the rest of those players.

he gets on base and he's a very good baserunner; if he's got any chance to stick in CF, he belongs in the 6-10 range. i mean is caleb joseph really any more likely to be a major league contributor than angle?

Is it the case that the Orioles have not been mining the Caribbean for talent lately?

Have the great talents of Sir Sidney Ponson, Daniel Cabrera, and Radhames Liz (lesser known but he posted a 7.50 ERA in over 100 ML innings) been forgotten so quickly?

The O's have supposedly been investing more money in scouting and development in the DR, but it hasn't showed up in the prospect lists. Truthfully, I think the Caribbean is fertile ground if you got in early or have a ton of money to throw around, and the Orioles are neither.

[Angle] gets on base and he's a very good baserunner; if he's got any chance to stick in CF, he belongs in the 6-10 range. i mean is caleb joseph really any more likely to be a major league contributor than angle?

Angle has hit 5 home runs in 1220 at bats since high school. He might have a better chance to MAKE the majors since he profiles as a 5th OF and pinch runner, but he'll have to develop some power (or become a .330 hitter) to ever be a viable major league starter. I don't really see it for Joseph either, but at least he has an outside shot at being a starter.

I don't think Crow has a ton of upside. Most seem to project him as a solid #3, maybe a #2.

And I think that projection is about the same for Hobgood. Hobgood may project as slightly better, but I would rather pay the extra money and eliminate the injury risk.

The Hobgood pick continues to rankle me. I fail to see how a team can go cheap after coming off consecutive years of drafting the best player available and being rewarded with Wieters and Matusz.

I don't understand why the Hobgood pick "rankles" you. AG#1F already addressed this, but I don't think Matzek or the other HS arms as being significantly better talents, and it's not as if the Orioles went cheap in the draft overall. They still spent $8-9 million I think, and signed late round guys like Ohlman and Coffey to pretty huge deals. I'd rather have Coffey + Hobgood than Matzek alone. I could understand someone arguing that they should have taken Grant Green (although Green doesn't look like he has a ton of upside), but I'm fairly indifferent about Hobgood vs. Matzek, Crow, et al.

re Angle -- he's a pretty decent prospect, but he's somewhere in the 15-25 range in the Orioles system. It's no surprise that he wasn't included.

And I think that projection is about the same for Hobgood. Hobgood may project as slightly better, but I would rather pay the extra money and eliminate the injury risk.

Crow isn't a risk? He didn't pitch for a year. He's far from being a sure thing.

Is it the case that the Orioles have not been mining the Caribbean for talent lately?

The Orioles would have to be able to find the Caribbean in order to mine it. They did manage to sign the top prospect in Guatemala this year, though.

is caleb joseph really any more likely to be a major league contributor than angle?

Well, Joseph is nine months younger, skipped a level to be Angle's teammate, and out-OPSed him by 70 points despite fading late, probably from catching too many games. He definitely has a shot to play in the bigs.
Angle looks like he's maxed-out his talent already - yes, he's a good defender and baserunner, but you have to suspect that higher level pitchers will look at that powerful swing (.069 ISO) and just throw the ball over the plate. Hard to draw too many walks if every pitch is in the strike zone...

Surprised they rated Mickolio below these guys. He looked great every time I saw him this year, and put up good numbers in Baltimore in limited time. Does his minor league career suggest he just had a brief run of effectiveness and will return to Ponsonia next year?

Crow isn't a risk? He didn't pitch for a year. He's far from being a sure thing.

Of course, he's a risk. He's less than a risk than Hobgood though.

I'd rather have Coffey + Hobgood than Matzek alone.

Considering that Matzek signed for $3.9M, there's no reason why the O's couldn't have signed both. Matzek cost $1.5M more than Hobgood and was widely considered the superior talent. I'm not trying to knock Hobgood but I do think the O's could have spent a bit more and received better talent.

I'd guess that either BPro forgot about Kam, thought he was too old (he got in under the cut-off by a month), thought he hasn't really solved his control problems, or just didn't think that a projected reliever (even one who's almost ready) is as valuable as a projected starter (even one in rookie ball).

I certainly hope that he's overcome his late start and learned how to pitch; he could be a very nasty closer...

I don't understand why the Hobgood pick "rankles" you. AG#1F already addressed this, but I don't think Matzek or the other HS arms as being significantly better talents, and it's not as if the Orioles went cheap in the draft overall.

I have no idea on how Hobgood rates vs the other high school arms because I've never seen any of these guys pitch. I do know that virtually every professional source I've seen quoted has Hobgood rated lower.

My problem is that when you are drafting in the top 5 of the draft, you should take the best player available, period. Don't get worried about his bonus demands, or who his agent is, or whether the next guy is almost as good, and don't get really attached to a lesser talent because you think he's a great dude.

The draft happens once a year, and the top of the first round of the draft is the only time and place the Orioles are ever going to have free access to better talent than their division-mates. Don't squander that advantage, no matter how small.

Mickolio wasn't forgotten, he was ranked just after the other guy in the Sherrill trade, Steve Johnson:


12. Steve Johnson, RHP
13. Kam Mickolio, RHP
14. Troy Patton, LHP
15. Michael Ohlman, C

My problem is that when you are drafting in the top 5 of the draft, you should take the best player available, period. Don't get worried about his bonus demands, or who his agent is, or whether the next guy is almost as good, and don't get really attached to a lesser talent because you think he's a great dude

I think Jordan weighed the idea of Hobgood and going overslot to get guys like Coffey and Ohlman versus Wheeler and slot picks down the line. I have a hard time getting too upset about it if it isn't pretty clear that the kid is worth it. I think you have to have some rough dollar estimate in terms of what the talent is worth and what you will need to sign him. From afar, it looks like the Pirates did the same thing (i.e., slot in the first, overslot for a few guys after). If Jordan didn't feel that Wheeler wasn't significantly better than Hobgood, who am I to argue?

Also, I have to add that I'm a little surprised about Joseph's ranking (26 BBs in 412 PA).

If Jordan didn't feel that Wheeler wasn't significantly better than Hobgood, who am I to argue?

It's possible that Jordan ranked Wheeler significantly ahead of Hobgood but didn't think Wheeler was worth the perceived price difference. The O's, along with the other teams picking at the top of the draft, simply miscalculated what it would take to sign Matzek and Wheeler.

It's possible that Jordan ranked Wheeler significantly ahead of Hobgood but didn't think Wheeler was worth the perceived price difference.

This is a much better version of what I meant to say.

If you like Wheeler better, take Wheeler. You're building for the future and you aren't payroll-constrained right now, so I don't buy this whole saving money for the later rounds argument. There's plenty of money for both.

On one hand you claim that the top free agents won't take your money, and on the other hand you are letting a greater talent walk over a couple million bucks. What about that $160 million you claim you offered to Teixeira?

ruthfully, I think the Caribbean is fertile ground if you got in early or have a ton of money to throw around, and the Orioles are neither.

This doesn't seem right. The Rockies don't fit either category but they've received some contributions from the DR (Ubaldo Jimenez, several prospects like Esmil Rogers, plus Everth Cabrera, whom they lost to the Padres in the rule 5 draft). If you count other areas, they've received an uptick of contributions from other countries (several pitchers from Venezuela, incl. Franklin Morales and Jhoulys Chacin).

I notice that other than (former Cub) Felix Pie (In Your Face Nick Swisher), Baltimore doesn't have any Latin players among its prospects.

Pie is pretty damn American. If you don't know that, you've got problems.

If you like Wheeler better, take Wheeler. You're building for the future and you aren't payroll-constrained right now, so I don't buy this whole saving money for the later rounds argument. There's plenty of money for both.

But presumably the Orioles, like every other team, had a budget for the draft. Ideally, Jordan would take the best player available in every slot and pay them whatever it takes to sign them, but he has to take his overall budget into account. As noted, the Orioles actually spent quite a bit in the draft, so it's hard to argue that they simply went cheap.

The O's, along with the other teams picking at the top of the draft, simply miscalculated what it would take to sign Matzek and Wheeler.

I think this is key. It might be true that, in retrospect, the Orioles could have afforded Matzek and the late round guys given what Matzek, et al signed for, but before the draft the picture looked a little different. Of course, it's fair to argue that Jordan misjudged the market and Matzek and Wheeler, but I think the overall strategy was sound. As I said above, I'm fairly indifferent. They all seem like good prospects, but none of them are can't miss types.

Latin America is a far bigger issue. It sounds like MacPhail is investing more there, but so far I'm disappointed in the returns. They need to get a little more aggressive.

Overall, the orioles are probably a middle of the pack farm system right now, which isn't bad considering all of the players they graduated this year. It would have been nice if a couple of the lower level guys like Avery and Hoes had broken out, and of course the Orioles need a lot more non-pitching prospects, but the system has a lot more depth than in years past.

Of course, he's a risk. He's less than a risk than Hobgood though.

Perhaps, although many have raised concerns about a jerk in Crow's delivery that could lead to problems (Mizzou has received criticism for teaching their pitchers this delivery). Hobgood seems to have a pretty smooth delivery.

I don't know, I thought it was kind of a weird draft in that I think you could pretty much take everyone taken from Tony Sanchez at #4 to Shelby Miller taken at #19 and interchanged them and I don't think you would have been appreciably better or worse.

Bell's overrated as a four-star prospect; he's behind both Britton and Arrieta on my list. If he can sustain what he did last year, he'll move up, but we need to see what he does in a tougher hitting environment. I've learned not to overreact based on one year's performance, and his performance prior to last year was solid but nothing special.

My top 10 was

Matusz
Arrieta
Britton
(big gap)
Bell
Avery
(small gap)
Snyder
Hobgood
(small gap)
Erbe
Johnson
Waring

with Givens just off the bottom.

-- MWE

i'm a little shocked that you have Avery and Johnson that high.

My top ten (using Sickels letter grades) is

Matusz - A
Britton - A-
Arrieta - A-/B+
Bell - B+
Snyder - B (underrated IMO...ceiling isn't high, but should be a productive player)
Hobgood - B
Erbe - B
Mickolio - B (could be an elite reliever)
Waring - B-
Joseph - B- (tempted to say Givens or COffey here, but I just don't know enough about them)

Actually, I forgot that Mickolio was still eligible; he'd be between Bell and Avery on my list.

Once you get below Hobgood, I think you're in the realm of the C prospects; they are all pretty much interchangeable. Erbe doesn't have a consistent out pitch, and for someone who's been around as long as he has been he still doesn't have much of a clue about pitching; he's still just a thrower. Yeah, he had some success at Bowie this year, and yeah, he's only 21, but the more I see him the more I think his future is in the bullpen.

Avery is very raw, and he has a lot to learn, but the strikeouts weren't excessive, he works extremely hard at the game, he's probably going to be able to stay in CF, and I think he'll develop some power. The Carl Crawford comparisons are still apt, I think.

-- MWE

If that’s Sickels’ scale, those grades are high across the board. He’s a tough grader. Matusz and Tillman were both B+ this time last year, so there’s no way Britton or Arrieta crack an A-.

I’d project their grades like this:

Matusz – A/A-
Britton – B+
Arrieta - B+/B
Bell - B+/B
Snyder – B-
Hobgood – B-/C+
Erbe – B-
Mickolio – B-/C+
Waring – C+
Joseph – C+/C

Those might even be a bit generous.