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Thursday, August 07, 2008

BPro: Silver: Bonds Bingo

This Bonds deal is going on longer than Drew Danburry’s “I’m Pretty Sure This Is Someone Else’s Song But I Couldn’t Figure Out Whose So I’m Keeping It (Bop-Bop)” !

Ultimately, though, what has happened is that the 30 major league teams have conspired (not literally, I’d hope) to run down Barry Bonds’ clock. There are a number of decent fits, but no one great one, and if you’re only renting a player for the scope of 35 or 40 ballgames, the marginal contribution is going to be fairly small—not more than an extra win on the season for any of these clubs. If you were going to sign Bonds, the time to have done so would have been much earlier in the season.

Nevertheless, I would keep a watchful eye on the Mets. If Bonds ends up in anybody’s uniform, it’s likely to be that one, as Omar Minaya is an active GM who finds himself with few other alternatives and a lot of pressure to reach the playoffs. But the odds are overwhelming that Bonds isn’t going to be wearing anybody’s jersey, and that instead he’s going to be sitting on his couch come October.

Repoz Posted: August 07, 2008 at 02:44 PM | 21 comment(s)
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1. Shooty Is A One Man Legion Posted: August 07, 2008 at 03:32 PM (#2894433)

Collusion!

He's under indictment and crippled!

You're all Bonds butt-boys!

Did I miss anything?

2. Walt Davis Posted: August 07, 2008 at 03:39 PM (#2894441)

Surely he meant he'll be sitting on his La-Z-Boy come October.

3. Shredder Posted: August 07, 2008 at 03:39 PM (#2894443)

and that instead he’s going to be sitting on his couch come October.

I don't know how Nate could have missed the obvious recliner joke right here.

Edit: Damn you, Walt Davis!

4. Ryan Jones Posted: August 07, 2008 at 03:40 PM (#2894444)

Did I miss anything?

That pretty much covers it. Thank you for saving me several hours of my life.

5. Jimmy P Posted: August 07, 2008 at 03:44 PM (#2894451)

We get it. He can still play, teams should sign him.

Join reality: IT ISN'T HAPPENING!

6. kubiwan Posted: August 07, 2008 at 03:48 PM (#2894460)

he’s going to be sitting on his couch come October.

Does signing with the Mets really solve this problem for Barry? :)

7. Joey B. Posted: August 07, 2008 at 04:06 PM (#2894478)

Join reality: IT ISN'T HAPPENING!

Yeah, sheesh, no kidding. We're 70% of the way through the season for Pete's sake. The horse is beyond dead at this point, it's completely decomposed.

I like Silver's writing, but his time would have been better spent by running another analysis of the latest daily tracking poll averages and electoral college map projection.

8. Fred C. Dobbs Posted: August 07, 2008 at 04:25 PM (#2894492)

Maybe someone will sign him just for the seventh game of the World Series and he'll hit a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth. Then will Bud Selig forgive him??

9. villainx Posted: August 07, 2008 at 04:37 PM (#2894511)

Maybe someone will sign him just for the seventh game of the World Series and he'll hit a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth. Then will Bud Selig forgive him??

I think it isn't allowed to add players that late, and in due time, he wouldn't be eligible for the post season roster.

10. Jolly Old St. Nick (now, with Screen Name history) Posted: August 07, 2008 at 04:58 PM (#2894542)

Collusion!

He's under indictment and crippled!

You're all Bonds butt-boys!

Did I miss anything?

Only a claim of "media bias" because you devoted twice as many sentences to the prosecution as you did to the defense.

11. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: August 07, 2008 at 05:06 PM (#2894555)

From "Black magic? We don't see any black magic here" to "Burn the witch! Burn the witch!" to "We can't help but notice that several witchless teams could use his big broom." The sports media just goes from strength to strength, doesn't it?

12. Ray DiPerna Posted: August 07, 2008 at 05:23 PM (#2894567)

Oh, it was going to happen. It was just a matter of when. Not in March or April, maybe, and probably not in May or June. As the trade deadline approached, some team was going to look out at the trade market, realize they were going to need to give up three or four quality prospects to acquire a good outfielder, and realize at that price it was worth signing ... Barry Bonds.

I never saw it this way. I was extremely surprised initially that no team showed interest in him, but once that remained the case as the season opened, I couldn't see why a team would then show interest in him, months later; if they weren't willing to sign him before -- if they were willing to live with inferior players from the outset -- I couldn't see why they'd sign him later.

What, they're suddenly worried they might not make the playoffs without him? That didn't seem to bother them before.

He isn't getting signed.

13. Ray DiPerna Posted: August 07, 2008 at 05:27 PM (#2894573)

and you thought those excess luggage fees on US Airways were bad!

Yeah, wtf is up with those fees?

By the way, I think a Mets game ended with a Mets loss recently on a sacrifice fly, with Fernando Tatis butchering the play and thus not getting in position to make a throw. I was listening on the radio so didn't see the play -- it's entirely likely that nobody could have thrown the runner out -- but that's the kind of nonsense the Mets have chosen to live with in left field.

Yes, I'll happily argue that Bonds is better defensively than Fernando Tatis.

14. Blackadder Posted: August 07, 2008 at 06:10 PM (#2894611)

I agree that it clearly won't happen, but I think Silver slightly understates how important signing Bonds would be. For a team like the Mets, locked in a very tight race, improving by a little under one win in expectation, which is about what Bonds would provide, would have a significant effect on their probability of making the postseason. Most deadline deals people get so excited about don't improve teams by much more than a win.

15. Ray DiPerna Posted: August 07, 2008 at 06:32 PM (#2894648)

For a team like the Mets, locked in a very tight race, improving by a little under one win in expectation, which is about what Bonds would provide, would have a significant effect on their probability of making the postseason.

And, as we know, the Mets lost last year by... a win. As did San Diego.

16. Brandon in MO (Fire Trey Hillman) Posted: August 07, 2008 at 06:36 PM (#2894650)

The Yankees sign Bonds, put him on the roster for the post season, he appears in game 7, strikes out 27 on 81 pitches and hits 4 home runs to lead the Yankees to a World Series over the Cubs.

17. Swoboda is freedom Posted: August 07, 2008 at 06:39 PM (#2894651)

Yes, I'll happily argue that Bonds is better defensively than Fernando Tatis.

And better than Alou, which no one mentioned.

18. Ray DiPerna Posted: August 07, 2008 at 06:41 PM (#2894652)

And better than Alou, which no one mentioned.

The Mets have run a parade of players out to left this year who have no business playing left, offensively or defensively. It's beyond comical.

19. Teddy F. Ballgame Posted: August 07, 2008 at 06:49 PM (#2894655)

Am I the first to introduce the "Will Barry Play in 2009?" meme?

20. TomH Posted: August 07, 2008 at 06:52 PM (#2894657)

Barry's benefit to most teams, especially like the Angels, is far more in the possibility of more post-season success. A batter who adds .2 r/g can add a 5% improvement (50% to 55%) to a playoff series chance of victory, which could mean taking a team with a 1/8 prob of bringing home the Big Trophy up to about 1/6.4; a 25% relative increase.

21. Alan S Posted: August 07, 2008 at 07:37 PM (#2894680)

Tatis isn't pretty in the outfield, but, at least to me, he hasn't looked like a disaster either.

Of course, right now the issue wouldn't be Bonds vs. Tatis. It's Bonds vs. Murphy/Evans. And Bonds wins that argument (as he'd win the argument against Tatis as well).

And most importantly, as has been noted above, Bonds isn't going to be a Met. He's not going to be a _________. No matter how much people here and across the internet might clamor for it, it's not going to happen. And even in places like this, where Bonds' support is about as high as it is anywhere except San Francisco, the attitude towards him is mixed at best.

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BPro: Silver: Bonds Bingo

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