Tim Lincecum where art thou?

It's possible that Hanley projects as a solid CF, leaving him with a great bat and a net positive defensive value, whereas Braun profiles to become an average LF, which gives him a slightly better bat and absolutely no defensive value. If you were starting a team, would you rather have T. Hunter or B. Abreu? It's a fair question, but I tend to agree that it wouldn't separate Braun and Hanley by 30-40 positions. Maybe 10-15.

Certainly is not age keeping Braun off the list, he is only 35 days younger than H Ramirez.

What is it? and why?

Braun is 35 days younger (Wrong! I took your word for it, but Braun is actually 35 days older!) Ramirez already has two full years in the majors, while Braun has less than one. Braun's somewhat poor BB/K ratio also makes him what I believe to be a candidate for a pretty big fall to earth next season, and I'm a Brewer fan. That defense will be positively intolerable when he's only slugging .480. Unless his fielding improves tremendously, much like Rickie Weeks's did.

What is it? and why?

If Nate is using BPro's defensive metrics, they had Hanley as roughly an average defensive SS last year. They haven't posted numbers for this year yet, however. If you're assuming Hanley is an average or near average defensive SS, then it's easy to see why he'd be ranked so high.

The difference between an average writer and a great:


Guy I haven’t really thought about yet, so don’t ask

vs.

Pass

My understanding is that Tom Tango has explained to all and sundry that Ryan Braun is a bad defender on a galactic scale. Possibly even historically bad.

While I agree that Ryan is poor defensively, I have seen the Jim Ray Harts of the world and this ain't it.

But it's clear that Silver has had some sort of epiphany with regards to Braun. This is the third mention in the last several weeks of Braun's defense being a much. Larger issue than most realize.

At the current pace Silver will be stating that Braun cost the Brewers the division. Don't scoff. Several Brewer blogs have already made that contention with the math showing that Ryan was a net negative to the team.

With Counsellino at third Cap would have won 20.

From the original SI article:

No. 4. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Marlins, Age 24 . . . Cabrera not only plays third base, but he plays it pretty darn well.

That is the first time I have heard that. Every metric I have seen suggests he is a pretty bad fielder.

Anyone know anything different?

Isn't the "not ranked" in reference to last year? So it's entirely possible that Braun will end up in the 40s ("right on the cusp of the Top 50"), making the difference not quite as great.

Although both positions are of major defensive importantce, it is SS that is of a greater magnitude.

Isn't this double-counting to some extent? If you're -20 runs, you're -20 runs, no matter what position you play. This actually seems to be an argument in *favor* of Hanley, since it's easier to find a -20 3B than a -20 SS.

I'm sorry, but Braun's fielding stats are uniformly bad on a galactic scale, and when I've seen him play, he looked like a historically bad third baseman.

In short, I'm going to trust the calculators, stat nerds, and Braun's coaches over a Brewers fan with a man-crush on him.

LHP Eric Bedard (not ranked). Led baseball in strikeouts per nine innings — he now has to be considered in that 1A tier of pitchers along with guys like Jake Peavy and C.C. Sabathia.

Shouldn't we see him do this in a season with 200+ innings before crowning him? Yeah, he pitched his ass off -- in 182 innings. He's never pitched more than 196.3 in a year. Peavy's been 200+ for three years, is younger than Bedard, and has a better career ERA+ (even pending this year's park factors, I'd assume). Sabathia is also younger, has had a higher ERA+, and has 55 more innings over the last two years. John Lackey is two years older, has a slightly lower ERA+, and hasn't pitched as "few" as 196.3 innings in a year in any full season.

I'm certainly not putting down Bedard, and I so see that Nate has him just below Peavy and Sabathia, but he's going to be more durable to really match those guys going forward.

Why did Bedard K so many more guys this year? Is that improvement sustainable?

There are several typo's there like this one:

# CF Curtis Granderson (was Honorable Mention). Just barely missed the cut in May. He’s three years younger than Grady Sizemore but might be the superior player for the next 12-36 months.

Sizemore is actually 2 years younger than Granderson.

And this one

LHP Carlos Zambrano (was #28). The trends in his peripheral statistics are pointed the wrong way. I don’t completely hate the deal he signed with the Cubs, but I don’t think he’s Top 50.

I'll take Roy Oswalt for more career wins going forward than Dice-K.

In short, I'm going to trust the calculators, stat nerds, and Braun's coaches over a Brewers fan with a man-crush on him.

I'm not a Brewers fan. Unlike many of the people who are commenting on Braun's defense on the Internet, I have seen him play, albeit in the minors, and he's got the tools to be an adequate defender, perhaps even a good one eventually.

At every position, a minor-league defender has to make two adjustments, one to the speed of the game (things come at you more rapidly in the majors) and one to the different sight and sound cues (higher and deeper stands give you a different backdrop, and more fans making more noise in a larger area changes the background noise against which you have to pick up the crack of the bat). 3B is (IMO) the position at which these things have the MOST impact - 3B is the most instinctive/reactive defensive position on the field - and thus these things are most likely to affect a young 3B.

-- MWE

He can't spell Erik Bedard, either.

Maybe I'm just a hopeless homer, but there's no way I'd trade Tulowitzki for Bedard or Ryan Zimmerman or Brian McCann.

My understanding is that Tom Tango has explained to all and sundry that Ryan Braun is a bad defender on a galactic scale. Possibly even historically bad.

I gave Bobby Bonilla a call to ask him to drop in on the thread and say "Hi!" -- but while on hold, I was browsing through bb-ref and, OUCH! I didn't think Braun was that bad... but ".895" is one of those rare times when pure fielding percentage actually says a mouthful.

I probably saw about 8 or 9 Braun games -- and for whatever little it's worth, Braun doesn't look like a hopeless defender at 3B. He doesn't seem to have appreciably less range or seem slower reflexively than other 3B, he just seems awfully.... jumpy. His throws always have this rushed look to them, like he doesn't trust his arm or something (I don't know exactly how good his arm is - not recollecting any throws from up the line). I guess it seems like he's got the raw tools to play at least a passable 3B, but hasn't the foggiest idea how to use them. I have to imagine defense is something the Brewers instructional staff spends time with him on -- he certainly doesn't seem to need any help with the bat -- so I'd have to guess it's either a mental issue or indifference towards improving.

I'm guessing the history of really bad defenders developing into acceptable defenders (as opposed to switching positions) isn't good... Jody Davis went from being a really bad catcher to a pretty good one (albeit probably not as good as his gold glove) - but he wasn't this bad either.

Sparkles:

I have written multiple times that Braun's defense was "poor", "bad" and associated adjectives.

And as for "man-crush", are you referring to me? I have repeatedly tempered comments with cautionary remarks.

I simply do not agree with the current "expert" assessment that Braun is a defensive disaster.

Those adjustments to the speed of the game and the size of the stands seem to have affected Ryan Braun more than they did any other rookie third baseman in history who wasn't moved to another position.

No, I wouldn't go so far as to call Ryan Braun's defense a "disaster," a "calamity," a "catastrophe," a "plague," or a "monstrosity," but I would say it's in the best interests of the team to MOVE HIM THE HELL TO ANOTHER POSITION!

I'm guessing the history of really bad defenders developing into acceptable defenders (as opposed to switching positions) isn't good...

See comment #14.

MWE, have there been other cases of rookie 3Bs being terrible defenders at first for these reasons, and then being better next season?

Zonk:

Braun's arm is VERY erratic. He also struggles going to his left.

Personally, I think the non-Maddux coaches on the Brewers stink as Braun looked worse in August than he did in June.

The Brewers defense has regressed since Rich Dauer was fired. Who, by the way, now works for the Rockies. A team whose defense has improved significantly.

Go figure....

Yeah... I was on hold with Bobby Bo (he says he's on his way out, so if he does need to drop in to say "Hi!" - he's only got a few minutes) while Mike was posting.

I'm trying to think of really bad defenders -- players coming up that everyone said "would" move, who didn't. On one hand, it seems like top prospects generally seem to move before they reach the majors -- or for other reasons once they arrive (ala Biggio), but on the other -- Braun's ascent was quite rapid and the positional usual suspect for suspect 3B was taken.

Wade Boggs was kept in the minors two years too long because of his fielding, and he's Brooks Robinson compared to Braun. Right now. But the stands at Fenway are lower.

Harvey:

What's the scuttlebutt on Braun's effort to improve his defense.... puff pieces about him staying late to work on his defense, indifference to where he plays so long as he plays, or whispers in beat reports about a lack effort?

Zonk:

To the best of my knowledge he does work on his defense.
All of them do. The young Brewers. Weeks especially. I just don't know if they are getting the benefit of expert instruction.

While a pleasant fellow I have always thought of Sveum, as one example, as something of a dolt baseball-wise.

Dallas McPherson had a really bad defensive rep when he came up. Once I saw him play, though, I didn't think he was bad at all: he was very good on reaction plays and plays he had to make quickly, but where he seemed to struggle was on plays where he could take his time. This was particularly true on throwing ... he'd be fine if he had to get the throw off, but if he had time, it's almost like he'd start thinking about all the bad things that can happen when you throw the ball, and then he'd throw it, and one of them would.

Of course, Big D's D actually rated pretty well by the stats when he came up, so his situation isn't completely like Braun's, but I wonder if some of Braun's struggles may be similar (I haven't seen him play).

I would ask for HSF's input. I have given the team a certain amount of space since season's end.

Melvin's public defense of Yost left me somewhat exasperated.

To put it mildly....

The Brewer hitting instruction, on the other hand, was obviously excellent this year. Brother.

HSF:

I wonder. Weeks was a mess until his sojourn to Triple A. And Braun's strike zone control all but went "poof". Hardy was also more of a hacker.

I am, shall we say, concerned.......

Look, it would be very nice if the Brewers could afford the luxury of waiting around for each of their four bad defenders to put in whatever amount of work they need to hone these magnificent skills they so obviously possess but have been unable to summon due to poor coaching, but they can't; and since Braun is the worst of them, and they have a guy playing center who can't play center, but is a decent third baseman, and their long-time leftfielder is gone, the solution is so painfully obvious that this entire discussion about Saving Third Baseman Ryan makes me want to scream. Screw his career development. He can go back and try third again after they win a pennant.

No Brandon Webb?

Whatever you say, BPro . . .

I haven't seen Braun play a ton, but at least according to Zone Rating there have been worse defensive seasons at 3B. Here's a list of every 3B season of at least 700 innings and a ZR worse than Braun's .697 since 1987(which is equivalent to around a -22 over a full season).

Steve Buechele, 1994: .630
Howard Johnson, 1989: .650
Dean Palmer, 1998: .650
Russ Davis, 1998: .657
Mike Blowers, 1995: .658
Dave Hollins, 1998: .662
Dean Palmer, 2000: .667
Eric Munson, 2004: .668
Jim Presley, 1990: .669
Carney Lansford, 1989: .672
Howard Johnson, 1991: .672
Sean Berry, 1996: .673
Mike Blowers, 1996: .674
Joe Randa,1996: .675
Bobby Bonilla, 1997: .675
Craig Worthington, 1989: .676
Travis Fryman, 2002: .680
Tony Fernandez, 1999: .683
Bobby Bonilla, 1989: .684
Fernando Tatis, 2000: .685
Russ Davis, 1999: .687
Jim Presley, 1989: .688
Jack Howell, 1990: .691
Ed Sprague, 1999: .692
Greg Norton, 1999: .693
Kevin Seitzer, 1989: .694
Troy Glaus, 2003: .695
Kevin Seitzer, 1990: .696
Leo Gomez, 1991: .696

Weird. Webb was ranked 16th on last year's list, but I guess he dropped out of the top 20?

Perhaps they think his continued display of durability is a bad thing, in the long run? From Silver's SI piece:

What that means is that this list tilts heavily to upside over certainty.

I wonder if Markakis will end up in the top 50. As a 23 year old he hit .300/.362/.485 and played in 161 games. He's also a good OF AFAICT. Not very sexy, but he's durable and does a lot of things well.

Braun is 35 days younger (Wrong! I took your word for it, but Braun is actually 35 days older!) Ramirez already has two full years in the majors, while Braun has less than one. Braun's somewhat poor BB/K ratio also makes him what I believe to be a candidate for a pretty big fall to earth next season, and I'm a Brewer fan. That defense will be positively intolerable when he's only slugging .480. Unless his fielding improves tremendously, much like Rickie Weeks's did.

Yes, you are correct. I should have done the preview feature and checked. But don't pretend to make it seem that I lied twice. Yes, Braun played 1 season and H Ram 2, but that is not a good enough reason, especially when the point of the entire list involves many players that have played less. Braun did have one hell of a season.

MWE, have there been other cases of rookie 3Bs being terrible defenders at first for these reasons, and then being better next season?

Wright went from bad to basically league average in about a year...

I only saw about 5 games with Braun playing- but he clearly has the tools to be a good defender- he just doesn't....
It's kind of like Rafael Ramirez- remember him? He had all the tools to be a good defensive SS and after awhile his effective range was better than average... but all the errors egads.

I suspect that due to his tools he will become respectable because he will position himself and anticipate plays better- but he's always going to make too many errors and become good out there

H Ram

Ambiguous. "Hanley Ramirez" would have to be "HanRam" while Horacio Ramirez is "HoRam".

Damn it - I was unsuccessfully looking for a relevant post I made back when RB was in college about his glove. Anyhoo, I think Braun can become a passable third baseman in time, but it's not like he was lighting it up in the minors either (.898 FA in 180 career minor league games at third, with a blech RF (yes, I know RFs need a ton of tweaking before you take them with a grain of salt). He's always (well, since I can remember) seemed a little jumpy at third - like he has the tools for the job, but just hasn't put them together properly.

I'd definitely consider moving him to a corner outfield spot at this point. There's no reason to risk damaging his offensive development with what is increasingly appearing to be a fools errand, particularly given the presence of attractive short term alternatives (including Joe Dillon, not that he'd ever get a shot).

If Daisuke is in the top 50, I sure hope Dan Haren is too.


Also the Brewers should think about paying Ron Washington a lot of money to come teach Braun the field. He did wonders with all of the A's young infielders that came up in like the past decade, Eric Chavez being his prized pupil.

In defense of Nate Silver, his post was part of "Unfiltered", this is the feature of BPro where a writer can post thoughts on the fly. There is really no opportunity for editors to check.....so I can understand a few of the typos, as I have been prone to do and did on this very post.

Where the hell is Verlander?

Where the hell is Robinson Cano?

/teamcentric anger

Ambiguous. "Hanley Ramirez" would have to be "HanRam" while Horacio Ramirez is "HoRam".

Mark me among those who simply will never understand how any of these nicknames are necessary.

Horacio Ramirez is just ####### "Horacio Ramirez".

(I'd call him "BadRam".)

Yeah, I'd rather have Lincecum then Joba/Longaria, and potentially a couple of others. Should be interesting.

Braun had periods where he looked like he was making progress, but the wheels kind of came off the last couple weeks. Maybe the stress of a pennant race got to him.

I didn't see him in the minors but I've heard that at each step it took him a while to adjust and get his defense in order. I'm not ready to write him off defensively unless next year (and considering his bat, maybe the year after) is atrocious too.

HSF makes an interesting point. Here is a possible lineup that improves the overall defense:

1b: Fielder
2b: Hall
ss: Hardy
3b: Weeks
c: Anyone but Estrada
lf: Braun
cf: Hart
rf: Gross/somebody in a platoon

Hall has played second and played it well. Weeks last two months gives legit promise of finding his bat. And a guy who hits .260/.400/.480 with ok defense can play third. Hart has filled in at center and acquitted himself just fine.

It's plausible.

I have discussed switching Weeks/Hall previously. But I wanted to "entertain" HSF's suggestion of moving Braun which is worth considering.

Other suggestions??

Just for the record I would take Braun, over anyone from 12-20 minus Utley, in many cases it isn't close.

Those players are:
12. C.C. Sabathia (17)
13. Curtis Granderson (HM)
14. Erik Bedard (–)
16. Brian McCann (9)
17. Ryan Zimmerman (11)
18. Evan Longoria (HM)
19. Joba Chamberlain (–)
20. Jay Bruce (–)

Matthew:

Well, like I wrote, Nate now believes he understands defense. And Braun has become exhibit "A" of this newfound knowledge.

There is strong evidence to suggest that Braun is a legit .300/.350/.550 player with good baserunning skills for the next 10 years. If he improves his defense to mediocre that is an incredibly valuable player.

Clonod (St. Louis): Is Matt LaPorta the NL's Billy Butler?

Nate Silver: No, Ryan Braun is.

From a chat at BPro. Later on Silver labelled moving Braun to left field as one of the five most obvious decisions in major league baseball.

I find this fascinating as three months ago Silver said not a whisper about Braun's defense. Nor did BPro as a group. Now he is the defensive equivalent of Idi Amin.............

SG, thanks for providing that list. I had looked at ESPN ZR, but those don't go back near as far.

HW, I hadn't thought about moving Weeks, but there were a few people at brewerfan.net that had speculated on a series of moves that would put Hall at 3B, Hart in CF, Braun in one of the corners, and the other corner being filled with Gross (or Dillon)/and platoon. Hall at 2B and Weeks at 3B is an interesting twist on that.

Melvin has reportedly talked about moving some of the pitchers for a position player with good OBP. I don't really know who he is looking at, but I am intrigued.

jmp:

I think the Brewers just need to align their resources. And any move that REDUCES the number of arms on the club is foolhardy. Doug Melvin has already gutted the system of viable arms like De La Rosa, Eveland, Thatcher and Inman. Enough is enough.............

MWE, have there been other cases of rookie 3Bs being terrible defenders at first for these reasons, and then being better next season?

Wright went from bad to basically league average in about a year...

I was thinking about Wright when I made the comment.

I will say this - Braun does indeed work very hard on getting better defensively. The real question - to which others have alluded - is whether the Brewers can afford to wait for Braun to adjust. They have a pretty big window of opportunity in this division, but I think that window will close very quickly. The Cardinals have the organizational resources to rebuild quickly (provided they get a replacement for Jocketty who sees eye-to-eye with Luhnow, which I have little doubt they will). The Reds are making progress in getting talent into their system - Bailey and Bruce are just about there, and Cueto's not far away - although they still have some work to do to develop depth. Not winning this year may actually have been a blessing in disguise for the Brewers, if it convinces them that they still have work to do.

-- MWE

I agree with #11 - I don't quite understand the Bedard love. Bedard is only 18 months younger than Roy Oswalt, and Oswalt has pitched twice as many innings with a career ERA+ that is better than Bedard's best season and more durability. If Oswalt is likely dropping off the list due to age, I don't understand how Bedard ranks so high.

Certainly Bedard's great K rate and Oswalt's declining K rate would narrow the gap between them, but I think Silver understimates the value of guys like Oswalt and Buehrle who have shown they can consistently pitch 200+ innings at a high level. I'd probably have both Bedard and Oswalt in my top 50, with Oswalt ahead by a fair amount.

Certainly Bedard's great K rate and Oswalt's declining K rate would narrow the gap between them, but I think Silver understimates the value of guys like Oswalt and Buehrle who have shown they can consistently pitch 200+ innings at a high level. I'd probably have both Bedard and Oswalt in my top 50, with Oswalt ahead by a fair amount.

The combination of age, K rate, and difference in competition suggests to me that Bedard is a better in the long run than Oswalt. 18 months is important here - that's north of 10% of these guys careers probably, and is an especially relevant difference in a five to six year time window.

I can't really justify taking a 30 year old pitcher with his K rate in the weakest division in the weaker league over someone Bedard here. The innings differential is important, but the rest of it (particularly to me the NL Central) pushes Bedard comfortably over the top for me.

HW, here are the comments I was thinking of:

"As Melvin sees it, the Brewers have as many as eight starting options for next season: Dave Bush, Chris Capuano, Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Claudio Vargas and Carlos Villanueva. Those arms can either be penciled in for 2008 or used as trading chips.

"Right now, we have more starting pitching than most clubs," Melvin said. "I've already had clubs calling me and asking if we have starting pitching available."

I don't know what Melvin could get without giving away players pitchers that we would want in the 2008 rotation, but I suppose some teams may be impressed by Vargas career winning record.

Where the hell is Robinson Cano?

Cano was on the cusp of the Top 25 last year. I'd argue there are reasons he should go up this year (he stayed healthy for a whole season, proved he could be an effective player when not hitting .340, etc.) but he was #27 last year. He's probably top 25 now, but Silver only went top 20.

I find this fascinating as three months ago Silver said not a whisper about Braun's defense. Nor did BPro as a group. Now he is the defensive equivalent of Idi Amin.............


Well, 3 months ago, no one REALLY cared about Ryan Braun, so of course you're going to hear more about him now. 3 months ago he was a top prospect off to a hot start, now he's a top prospect who had an historically great beginning to his offensive career. The reason why you hear more about his defense is pretty easy to see.

Certainly Bedard's great K rate and Oswalt's declining K rate would narrow the gap between them,

I agree with 54
I'll also add that pitchers can't be evaluated like hitters
1: There's no real aging curve, even in the aggregate, pitchers are all over the place

2: Oswalt's K rate is declining and Bedard's is rising, that indicates that things may be going in opposite directions for these two, good for Bedard not so good for Oswalt- its not destiny, their arrows so to speak could reverse next year.

3: Pitching effectively 200+ ip a year for 5 years was great if you were the Astros, it doesn't mean he won't get hurt/lose effectiveness next year. Bedard has not yet demonstrated Oswalt's stamina, but at the same time he has less mileage so to speak.

4: pitchers are all over the place, if you have a hitter with 4 straight OPS+ of 150, 150 , 150, 150, you can bet he'll be between 140 and 160 the fifth year. With pitchers you can see 125, 125, 125, 125 and the next year is just as likely to be from 100 to 140.

5: Injury concerns- a pitcher is not juts more likely to lose playing time to injury- they are more likely to be hurt and still play but lose effectiveness.

Cano was on the cusp of the Top 25 last year. I'd argue there are reasons he should go up this year (he stayed healthy for a whole season, proved he could be an effective player when not hitting .340, etc.) but he was #27 last year. He's probably top 25 now, but Silver only went top 20.

I know, I wasn't being serious.

1: There's no real aging curve, even in the aggregate, pitchers are all over the place

I know, which makes Oswalt's age even less relevant. We've seen so many pitchers be successful in their 30s recently that I don't see how Oswalt can drop off the list at age 29. Over a 6-year horizon and if cost is not a concern, I'd much rather have the guy who has shown consistent excellence than the guy with an injury history and one great year under his belt. Unless the guy is 32+, I wouldn't be concerned about his age.

3: Pitching effectively 200+ ip a year for 5 years was great if you were the Astros, it doesn't mean he won't get hurt/lose effectiveness next year. Bedard has not yet demonstrated Oswalt's stamina, but at the same time he has less mileage so to speak.

Of course it doesn't mean he won't get hurt, but it's an indicator that he's less injury prone than the guy who has never pitched more than 200 innings. I haven't looked into it scientifically, but I'd rather have the guy with "mileage" than the guy without it. Maddux, Clemens, Glavine, etc. all had mileage at age 29--that was one of their strengths.

4: pitchers are all over the place, if you have a hitter with 4 straight OPS+ of 150, 150 , 150, 150, you can bet he'll be between 140 and 160 the fifth year. With pitchers you can see 125, 125, 125, 125 and the next year is just as likely to be from 100 to 140.

Yes, but that doesn't mean a pitcher's skill or history is irrelevant. The pitcher with a career 143 is likely to come out better than the pitcher with a career 118. And the one who has done it over 1400 innings probably has a narrower expected range than the guy who has only done it over 650 innings.

5: Injury concerns- a pitcher is not juts more likely to lose playing time to injury- they are more likely to be hurt and still play but lose effectiveness.

Of course, which is why I put a premium on the guy who has only missed about 15 starts over the last 7 seasons over the guy who had TJ surgery 5 years ago and has really only had one injury-free season.

I hope Bedard continues his progression because I'd love to see another great pitcher in the league. But I wouldn't give him Roy Oswalt's contract right now.

Getting off the Braun subject, if defense is being gauged heavily, why isn't Corey Hart being discussed in the same sentences as Braun and Fielder? A near .900 OPS, good baserunning, and defense that appears to be an asset should at least vault him into the discussion.

Wright went from bad to basically league average in about a year...

When Wright was drafted, and coming up through the minors, and debuting, every scouting report said that he had the tools to become a great defender. With Braun that is apparently not the case. I would personally give Braun another season or two at the position, but with the hope that he becomes merely mediocre, not the hope that he'll be a plus.

Corey Hart looks like someone picked up off the set of The Hills Have Eyes. He's too ugly for this list.