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Fun with THT (Dewan) fielding stats for LF:
1. Take the number of missed plays in zone, plus plays made out of zone, and divide by innings, to get a sense of how out of position each player might be playing generally. Call it "out of position stat", or OOPS. (A low OOPS means any number of things, but a very high OOPS suggests to me that a player might be out of position, making plays a LF usually doesn't and missing plays a LFer usually gets.)
Manny, 2007: 0.104 OOPS (high)
Manny, 2008: 0.050 OOPS (low, but inconsequential)
In 2008 his rate of plays out of zone, and his rate of missing plays in zone, have dropped. There's been speculation that Dewan or his observers are counting things differently at Fenway this year, but Manny not playing "deep shortstop" could explain some of this as well.
FWIW, Ellsbury, Hinske, and Pena also had Mannyesque OOPS in LF last year. Pena was atrocious, and from what I could tell last year neither Hinske nor Ellsbury had any good sense of how to play that territory at Fenway. (Ellsbury had a decent OOZ rate in LF, but it was only one play better than Manny's OOZ rate.) Kielty and Moss were fine out there.
2. There are around 40 players who played at least 325 innings in LF last year. The most likely out of position, based on OOPS:
David Dellucci, CLE: 0.105 OOPS (25 missed in zone, 15 made out of zone, 382 innings)
Manny Ramirez, BOS: 0.104 OOPS (68 MIZ, 35 OOZ, 994 Inn)
Emil Brown, KC: 0.097 OOPS (22 MIZ, 37 OOZ, 606 Inn)
Joey Gathright, KC: 0.096 OOPS (16 MIZ, 34 OOZ, 519 Inn)
Jason Michaels, CLE: 0.090 OOPS (18 MIZ, 27 OOZ, 499 Inn)
Given that the top 5 includes both KC LFers and two of three major CLE LFers, I suppose there could be park and/or scorer effects. But (a) Kenny Lofton had a low OOPS in LF for Cleveland, in slightly more innings than Dellucci; and (b) consistent numbers here could represent consistency in how the team positions its players. That, and Tango's SRBTFFTF has Dellucci and Brown as being observationally bad in LF, and Gathright with bad instincts and hands.
Based on the numbers above it might seem that Brown, Gathright, and Michaels are getting penalized for a lot of OOZ plays. But in the case of Brown and Michaels, their MIZ rate is still relatively high (top quartile). Gathright is more middle-of-the-pack on MIZ, so maybe he is being unfairly penalized. (And if he is out of position, he appears to have the speed to make up for it.)
Anyway, here's the top 5 for 2008 in a comparable-size list (using 90 innings as the cutoff):
Garret Anderson, LAA: 0.111 OOPS (8 MIZ, 12 OOZ, 180 inn)
Gary Matthews Jr., LAA: 0.104 OOPS (8 MIZ, 6 OOZ, 134 inn)
Mark Teahen, KC: 0.097 OOPS (9 MIZ, 8 OOZ, 175 inn)
David Dellucci, CLE: 0.096 OOPS (6 MIZ, 13 OOZ, 198 inn)
Jason Michaels, CLE: 0.093 OOPS (2 MIZ, 7 OOZ, 97 inn)
OK, so KC and Cleveland are still near the top of the pack. But what's going on with the Angels? Are these guys not covering the line any more?
FWIW, Emil Brown has a better OOPS this year, but mostly due to lower OOZ. He's among the worst in-zone. Gathright hasn't played LF this year, but his CF numbers for MIZ are pretty low - again, suggesting he was unfairly penalized by OOPS.
3. Were I to take this seriously, I'd have come up with something less junky than this.
Sox Theraphy had something on this a few months ago:
MGL posted his road UZR's also a few months ago, here
"Hey, if Bartolo Colon can win one, why not me?"
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