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Friday, June 27, 2008

Breaking Down the Draft—Picks 18 - 26

Video breakdowns of the likes of Ike Davis and Reese Havens (Mets), Josh Fields (Mariners), Ryan Perry (Tigers), Anthony Hewitt (Phillies), and Daniel Schlereth (D-backs) among others.

An excerpt on Davis:

I’ve seen a lot of reports pegging Davis as a player with 30-homer potential, but I don’t see it. Davis is way too handsy, meaning that his hands get too far out in front of his body. He brings his hands to the ball when he ought to be letting the ball come to him, and in the process he should be turning his hands and hips together....

...By most accounts, Davis has good hand-eye coordination and is able to square up the ball to the bat, but to reach 30 (or even 20) home runs, Davis will need to learn to keep his hands back and let the ball travel deeper.

Grade - C

NoVaO Posted: June 27, 2008 at 06:34 AM | 18 comment(s)
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   1. Alex Gordon's #1 Fan Posted: June 27, 2008 at 09:23 AM (#2834200)
I hate drafting college relievers in the first two rounds, but I think Perry will at least be a really good one.

I really like Dykstra, but for some reason I see him having a AAAA career.
   2. zack Posted: June 27, 2008 at 09:27 AM (#2834203)
Are all these "frame-by-frame" scouting evaluations based on a single game or game plus BP?
   3. ekogan Posted: June 27, 2008 at 11:16 AM (#2834279)
Can college relievers be converted into pro starters?
Then their value goes up dramatically
   4. Shooty misses Bill King Posted: June 27, 2008 at 11:44 AM (#2834315)
Can college relievers be converted into pro starters?
Then their value goes up dramatically


I don't see why not, but I'm skeptical of making starters out of guys even college coaches decided had arms they shouldn't try to shred.
   5. Cowboy Popup Posted: June 27, 2008 at 11:45 AM (#2834320)
but I'm skeptical of making starters out of guys even college coaches decided had arms they shouldn't try to shred.

Maybe that's part of the incentive to try and make them a starter, their arms have been relatively under-worked.
   6. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 27, 2008 at 12:13 PM (#2834349)
Can college relievers be converted into pro starters?
Then their value goes up dramatically


Papelbon was developed as a starter and all indications were that he was to start until the Sox made him the closer to protect his shoulder. The Red Sox also tried to do this with Nick Hagadone, but he blew out his elbow after thirteen starts.
   7. MM1f Posted: June 27, 2008 at 12:16 PM (#2834353)

I don't see why not, but I'm skeptical of making starters out of guys even college coaches decided had arms they shouldn't try to shred.


It is a case by case thing. Some relievers have repertoires that profile better as starters, for instance Notre Dame's Kyle Wieland's strength is a quality or 3 or 4 pitch mix.. some thing that would probably play better in the rotation.

A lot of potential pro starters are college relievers is because many college coaches often use closers in the way many of us would like to see MLB closers used. That is, they use them as rally killers (not just "save guys") who will come in anytime and often pitch a couple innings twice per weekend and maybe once during the week.

Another reason is that most freshmen, on good teams, don't step right into the weekend rotation. They are eased in through the pen and/or weekday starts. Sometimes a freshman just takes off in the pen and if a team has other potential SPs they might just try to not mess with the success the kid had and he becomes a 3-year closer.

But a guy like Fields, and probably Cashner, isn't going to ever make an MLB start. They are guys whose appeal comes from throwing the m-f-er outta the ball and then making someone's needs buckle on a curve.

And don't think of college workloads as starter=shredded/relief=good. That can be the case of course but some teams use their closer just as heavily, or more, than their starters because of the desire to get the best arm into the game, and sometimes try to get multiple inning stints back-to-back days, when it matters most.
   8. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: June 27, 2008 at 12:23 PM (#2834355)
MM1f,

Which college relievers have made it to MLB?
   9. Edmundo was digging the Italian ladies Posted: June 27, 2008 at 12:30 PM (#2834366)
Another reason is that most freshmen, on good teams, don't step right into the weekend rotation. They are eased in through the pen and/or weekday starts.
Okay, I'll show my ignorance of college ball. Why are weekday starts < weekend starts?
   10. Alex Gordon's #1 Fan Posted: June 27, 2008 at 12:33 PM (#2834368)
I think Braden Looper was a college reliever.


Okay, I'll show my ignorance of college ball. Why are weekday starts < weekend starts?


Weekday games are usually against inferior in-state opponents. Weekend games are conference games.
   11. MM1f Posted: June 27, 2008 at 12:38 PM (#2834376)
Well, lots : ) I assume you mean which college relievers have made it to MLB as starters?

I was actually going to post a list something like that but then my brain shut down because I couldn't think of anyone but Josh Fogg (closer, Florida) but I know there are definitely some better examples there.
Mitchell Boggs (UGA) hasn't really established himself as anything but he was a college set-up man who has been a starter the whole way through the minors and has now made a couple starts for the Cards.
Those are the only two examples that pop to my head at the moment, and neither is a star, but there are much better examples.. i'm just blanking

If you really are just talking about any college relievers to make the bigs some of the most obvious examples would be a pair of star college closers, turned star MLB closers, to go in the first round recently. They would be Fullerton's Chad Cordero and Texas' Huston Street. Rice's David Aardsma, another first round closer, has also been an MLBer but hasn't been more than O.K.
There are tons more though.
   12. bfan Posted: June 27, 2008 at 12:40 PM (#2834377)
Joey Devine I believe made it to MLB faster than any other draftee that year (he made it the year he was drafted). Now he was rushed by Atlanta, but he is doing great in Oakland this year.
   13. Cris E Posted: June 27, 2008 at 12:43 PM (#2834380)
The Twins drafted Carlos Gutierrez with the intent to make him a starter.

(I sent the author a note asking for Gutierrez to be included in the next set of players since he appears to have been the most anonymous first-rounder. Not even a blurb on MLB.com.)
   14. MM1f Posted: June 27, 2008 at 12:45 PM (#2834381)

Okay, I'll show my ignorance of college ball. Why are weekday starts < weekend starts?


Weekend starts matter more, they are usually against conference opponents and weekday starts (for a power conf school) often come against 2nd-tier opposition.

College baseball used to be (typically) Fri/Sat/Sun with one game on Tues or Weds. The Big Ten would go with Fri/2 on Sat/Sun... but anyway.

Now, with the new start date the week often goes Fri/Sat/Sun and Tues AND Weds.

The weekend games are your conferences series most of the year and usually some good out-of conference series before you start conferences play. The weekday games, especially for a power team, are usually against local opponents from lesser conferences. They matter, but teams obviously like to put the most focus on being successful in conference. So you get your top 3 starters going on the wknd and then you break other guys in during those weekday games. Teams typically start backup position players more during weekday games too.

The weekday games aren't always easier of course.. a team like N.C State could face Maryland or BC (crap teams) one weekend but then have weekday games against top 25 teams like ECU or Coastal Carolina.. but typically the emphasis is on winning your weekend series.
   15. Kyle S at work Posted: June 27, 2008 at 01:19 PM (#2834414)
David Bush I believe was a closer at Wake Forest.
   16. Keith Law Posted: June 27, 2008 at 01:30 PM (#2834428)
David Bush I believe was a closer at Wake Forest.

And a catcher, at least his freshman year.

I believe the Red Sox intend to make Rice reliever Bryan Price a starter.

Cris E, I assume it's behind the wall, but I do have a capsule up on Gutierrez on ESPN.com, having seen him live at the ACC tourney.
   17. realteamcoach Posted: June 27, 2008 at 01:32 PM (#2834437)
Marcum was a reliever in college, and has been one of the best starters in the AL this year.
   18. MSI Posted: June 27, 2008 at 05:37 PM (#2834952)
The Jays focus on switching college relievers into starters. Shaun Marcum, Casey Janssen, Dave Bush, Brett Cecil, and probably several more. It seems that Marcum had paid off as he has been excellent as a starter. But his arm is hurting now.
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