So it's a generic comment he made, so what? Not everyone can have great spur-of-the-moment eloquence. It was probably some kid he barely knew.

What's he supposed to say? I thought only Devil Ray pitchers were supposed to be involved in fatal car accidents? This wouldn't have happened if baseball had a salary cap?

"This wouldn't have happened if baseball had a salary cap?"

The truth hurts sometimes.

I doubt Melvin even knew Ozorede personally so anything more said by him would have been phony.

I noticed that Damian Miller wasn't in BP2003. I don't know if that's an error, though.

Also, PECOTA seems to shortchange the top players a bit, perhaps because the level of performance they have is so rare, a couple of collapses can throw the projections off quite a bit. I dunno.

I criticizzed the quote because Melvin appears to have pulled it straight from Crash Davis' (back off, Grammar Police) little black book, without putting any genuine thought or reflection into what he was saying.

Someday, I hope some MLB team gets a GM who shoots straight from the hip, unfiltered, so we might get quotes like "Gee, it sucks that the kid died, but honestly, I'd never heard of him until this morning. I feel bad for his family and all, but this will have no impact whatsoever on our team. What position did he play again?"

I criticized the quote because Melvin appears to have pulled it straight from Crash Davis' (back off, Grammar Police) little black book, without putting any genuine thought or reflection into what he was saying.

Someday, I hope some MLB team gets a GM who shoots straight from the hip, unfiltered, so we might get quotes like "Gee, it sucks that the kid died, but honestly, I'd never heard of him until this morning. I feel bad for his family and all, but this will have no impact whatsoever on our team. What position did he play again?"

So did I, right as I hit "Post." I didn't hit the stop button in time. Which probably means I'd make a lousy censor for the Grammy Awards and other live broadcast shows.

Someday, I hope some MLB team gets a GM who shoots straight from the hip, unfiltered, so we might get quotes like "Gee, it sucks that the kid died, but honestly, I'd never heard of him until this morning. I feel bad for his family and all, but this will have no impact whatsoever on our team. What position did he play again?"

Yeah, it would be wonderful to have as head of player personell a man so callous -- and, frankly, unprofessional -- that he ignores what is the pretty tragic passing of an 18-year-old athlete because it doesn't affect his bottom line.

Wonderful.

- Jb

...and only one starting pitcher has an ERA projection under 3.

That doesn't seem too unreasonable to me.

Last year there were 9 starters with ERAs under 3.00.

But in 2001, there were only two (Johnson and Schilling).

In 2000, there were four.

It seems pretty variable to me and a prediction of only one starter having an ERA under 3.00 seems reasonable, if a bit conservative.

Eric, I have no idea why you would think such a thing, or for that matter why you would choose to criticize a quote like that. I get the impression that there's pretty much nothing Melvin, Selig, or anyone associated with the Brewers could say in any situation that you wouldn't have a problem with.

Are you the biggest idiot ever?

In general, I'm just in favor of saying what one really thinks, and I'm usually against dishonesty and lack of forthrightness, even when it comes under the guise of politeness or propriety. I realize that places me in the minority.

Primey nomination for John Brattain. I feel ashamed for laughing so much in a thread about the death of an 18-year-old, but I rationalize it to myself by saying it Duke-bashing, not an insult to the departed Brewer.

4. "We were pretty sure that he wasn't a prospect and this just confirms it."

You're going straight to Hell for that one, John. And I'm coming with you.

On the projection issue, I would expect 5-10 pitchers to post sub-3.00 ERAs this year, but if I projected them all individually, I might well come up with zero. On an aggregate basis, the projections would be more accurate with a substantial regression to the mean, but that wouldn't predict any outliers. We know there will be outliers, but we can't identify them in advance, so we do better on average not predicting anyone will have an outlier kind of year.

I don't know if that was clear.

Vinay, I like your explanation better than mine.

And I second your suggestion of a PECOTA catch-all thread.

What an insightful intro from EricEnders.

If anyone's interested in seeing some more PECOTA oddities, I've got some thoughts over in the Mesa thread, starting here, and others have odded on.

Bottom line, neither the VORP nor EQA that PECOTA has for 2002 match up to what Woolner and Davenport have, respectively. Which is very odd, and makes me wonder what the deal is.

But PECOTA seems to be much better at predicting raw stats than at predicting "BP" stats.

In general, I'm just in favor of saying what one really thinks, and I'm usually against dishonesty and lack of forthrightness, even when it comes under the guise of politeness or propriety. I realize that places me in the minority.

Place me in the minority as well, then, since I agree with your comments. Just wanted you to know at least one of us wasn't offended by your initial comment.

...others have added on, I mean.

Maybe Doug Melvin, with nothing better to do, makes up banal press releases in his spare time in case any member of the organization dies. He's lucky he didn't accidentally fax out the "Richie Sexson" document by mistake to all the media organizations.

Just wanted you to know at least one of us wasn't offended by your initial comment.

I doubt anyone was offended, just thought it was a rather odd thing to criticize, kind of pointless as well. Someone who actually gets bothered by statements such as that must have a very hard time making it through daily life.

Perditious Regards

John

Said fracas, "My lack of volition

"In general, I'm just in favor of saying what one really thinks, and I'm usually against dishonesty and lack of forthrightness, even when it comes under the guise of politeness or propriety. I realize that places me in the minority."

OK Eric - but how do you know his generic response isn't honest? All he said was that the organization was saddened & their condolenses go out to the family? How's that dishonest or a lack of forthrightness? I'm sure this doesn't strike him too deeply as he probably didn't know the kid, but I find it rather likely that the news of an 18 year old kid he'd hired had died in an accident probably would sadden him - not into beravement, but it would be a downer. Probably would affect plenty of others in the organization that way too. Is it dishonest that he's sending out his condolenses? Unless he feels really bad about something he isn't allowed to feel at all bad about it? Might help if you showed that there was anything dishonest in the response before you imply he's beign dishonest.

Great, maybe we can turn this into a Springsteen thread and get me off the hot seat. Some people believe that the song "My Love Will Not Let You Down" is supposed to be a first-person account of a stalker and rapist. Thoughts?

Somebody probably already responded to this, sorry, but

"It seems pretty variable to me and a prediction of only one starter having an ERA under 3.00 seems

OK OK, I just found post #39, sorry, duh. I couldn't have said it better myself (and of course just to prove it, I didn't).

I just received a very interesting email from the family of the late Augustine Ozorede. Apparently he is related to several highly placed Nigerian government officials. His estate has left behind a substantial fortune, $250 million worth, and Mr. Ozorede has willed it to Major League Baseball, the game that gave him a purpose in life.

For a nominal 10% fee ($25 million), his estate proposes to transfer the entire sum of money to our general fund, effective upon certain financial arrangements on MLB's part.

As you can tell, I am very excited about this proposal. Nothing is more hurtful to me personally than to have to watch teams like the Expos and Marlins cut payroll to the bone, and therefore be unable to compete. This $250 million infusion promises to ensure franchise stability in our small markets, and avoid putting too heavy a luxury tax burden upon our large markets.

To fund the 10% fee, I intend to ask all MLB teams to withhold a flat 5% from the salaries of all players under contract for the 2003 season, to be put into an escrow fund administered by myself. This withholding would expire at the conclusion of the 2003 season and would not be re-imposed in 2004.

Our lawyers are going over the exact language at this point in time, but I thought you all should know about this exciting new development before I release details to the press. Baseball is back, and Nigerian money is going to help it become America's national pastime once again.

- Bud

Hey Dubya,