I predict that Andy LaRoche will not draw 74 walks.

"I predict that Andy LaRoche will not draw 74 walks."

Hard to say. He's had 44 in 316 ML AB so far, and if you extend that rate out to the 516 AB in the projection, you'd get 72.

That said, if he doesn't start showing a little more in the other areas of his offensive game, he'll probably fall short on the PT.

Vlad, you missed the snark. All I'm saying is that there are lots of numbers that are not 74 that would be probable.

This was on a KC Star blog today:

Here's a partial list of James’ top 25 young players:

 1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24
 2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24
 3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24
 4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25
 5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24
 6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24
 7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23
 8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26
 9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25
10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24
11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24

James also listed teams in order of overall young talent currently on the big league squad:

 1. Minnesota Twins
 2. Arizona Diamondbacks
 3. Tampa Bay Rays
 4. Florida Marlins
 5. Kansas City Royals

How old is Hamels? I'd take him ahead of Soria and K-Rod any day.

If Fielder is ahead of Wright and Ramirez, then it's a list of best hitters, not best players.

"How old is Hamels?"

25 this year.

Prince "Fielder" is WAY too high on that list...

Projection for Andrew McCutcheon: 0.269 0.339 0.382

Is a little disappointing. Actually, if a 22 year old CF can put up that line Pirates should be happy, but the Bill James projections are notorious for being on the high side for recent minor leaguers. And if that's the high side, then a median projection looks something like "sent back to AAA".

Projection for Andrew McCutcheon: 0.269 0.339 0.382

Is a little disappointing.

He hit .283/.372/.398 in AAA at 21 after hitting .265/.329/.388 in AA/AAA at 20.
The player I have a habit of comparing him to is Carlos Gomez, who hit .281/.350/.423 in AA at 20 and .286/.363/.414 in AAA at 21 (only 140 ABs)
Gomez hit 258/.296/.360 in the MLB at 22.
So McCutchen at .269/.339/.382 seems a bit on the high side to me for an age 22 projection.


Gomez is faster, McCutchen is supposed to have more power (but hasn't shown that yet).
What does McCutchen have? (aside from higher rankings by scouts?) His K/BB has improved every year since he reached full season ball- with each promotion to a higher level his K/BB improves a bit- that means he's gaining on the league(s). His AA and AAA k/bbs are MUCH better than Gomez's.

All I'm saying is that there are lots of numbers that are not 74 that would be probable.

After David Wells won 15 games in 1991, I bet a friend he wouldn't win 15 games ever again. Post-agreement, when I specified he won't win exactly 15 more ever again, my friend made me drop it.

Lucky for me, 12 years later, I would have had to pay up.

"Projection for Andrew McCutcheon: 0.269 0.339 0.382

Is a little disappointing. Actually, if a 22 year old CF can put up that line Pirates should be happy, but the Bill James projections are notorious for being on the high side for recent minor leaguers. And if that's the high side, then a median projection looks something like "sent back to AAA"."

In fairness to Cutch, he supposedly has GG-type defense, and if that's true then he's probably got enough bat to carry an everyday job anyway.

I think he's probably ticketed for AAA for at least the start of next year, for arb reasons.

What are the plans for McLouth?

I can't wait to get my copy. You'd think that baseball-reference.com would make an annual statbook irrelevant, but the publishers pack enough interesting material to make it well worth the purchase.

-P- That Andy LaRoche will draw 74 walks.

Which along with his 13 hits will take him to a team-leading 173 OBP. :-)

That "young players" list -- is that the crazy formula James cooked up last year that had us all scratching our heads? It was something like (30-age)*(career pancake flops)*(1.05^(30-age)). Anyway, it somehow led to a list of "best players under 30" that didn't have Pujols on it or some such.