That TB defense was so bad last season that it really did mask what was a pretty effective group of starters. I don't know that Jason Bartlett fixes it, but Pinto isn't completely out of his mind.

Dave Cameron wrote a bit about this at the end of last season, IIRC.

I am not sure about how great the Rays will be, but what's so great about the Yankees rotation? Its Wang / Pettite / Kennedy / Mussina / Hughes, right? That's not exactly the 1996 Braves.

"Whose name has apparently affected the size of his brain?" That's not even a good insult.

I'm not on the D-Rays rotation bandwagon either, but that was neither humorous nor insightful baseball-related content.

The insults are trite, and the concluding statement - "Some advice - stay away from Pinto" - is hilariously benighted, given that Pinto is one of the best baseball analysts out there. His free databases alone are gloriously useful resources.

What a fanboy jerk.

"I know you stat heads will kill me for this, but all you need to know about the usefulness of the PECOTA projections is that they allow somebody to come to the conclusion that Tampa Bay has better starting pitching than Boston, New York or even Toronto."

Was that supposed to be snark? You could change "PECOTA projections" to "anything" and it would be just as accurate. "Somebody" can always spin a set of data to support any conclusion they want to reach.

Is this the new buzz piece--writer wants to get press because his article sucks and isn't even that insulting?

I read Pinto's article, too--it's a bit short on analysis, using almost solely PECOTA projections, with little projectability and discussion of which pitchers are likely to break out. He could have used PECOTA's rates for this, but he didn't. And his inclusion of Jason Hammel over Jackson seems a bit self-serving.

However, he's probably right about one thing--the Rays have the best top 2 in the rotation in the AL East.

However, he's probably right about one thing--the Rays have the best top 2 in the rotation in the AL East.

Kazimir-Shields-Garza-Jackson might be the best top 4 in the league.

It'll be between the Red Sox and the Rays for the best rotation. The Red Sox have depth and established performance, but the Rays have a much higher upside.

I can't be sold on anything but mediocrity from Jackson. Too many years of great-start, terrible-start.

How does the Rays rotation have higher upside than the Red Sox? If Garza and Jackson lived up to potential, they'd probably still be slightly behind Buchholz and Lester.

How does the Rays rotation have higher upside than the Red Sox? If Garza and Jackson lived up to potential, they'd probably still be slightly behind Buchholz and Lester.

Actually, I'd probably have them both about even with Buchholz and Lester. I also think Shields and Kazimir will be better than Matsuzaka and Beckett, so the real issue would be whether or not Schilling pitches well and whether or not the Rays find a 5th pitcher.

I also think Shields and Kazimir will be better than Matsuzaka and Beckett, so the real issue would be whether or not Schilling pitches well and whether or not the Rays find a 5th pitcher.

ZIPS likes Andy Sonnanstine (who will open the season in the rotation) quite a bit.

It's not a far-fetched conclusion, though I agree that Pinto should have included some subjectivity into the analysis instead of going on straight projections. None of the other three teams are pinning their playoff hopes on a great rotation; Toronto is probably the closest to depending on that but in their case it's really dependence on their defense to make Marcum and Litsch look adequate. Nobody in the division is likely to ride a dominant starting rotation to a playoff spot.

I think Jackson sucks though, I'd much rather they kept Hammel once Kazmir is back. He had a strong September at least and, more importantly, has spent far less time sucking in the majors than Jackson. At least he deserves more chances to succeed at this point.

Actually, I'd probably have them both about even with Buchholz and Lester. I also think Shields and Kazimir will be better than Matsuzaka and Beckett, so the real issue would be whether or not Schilling pitches well and whether or not the Rays find a 5th pitcher.

You were referring to upside. As far as the whole rotation is concerned, you may be correct. To me there are a couple of x-factors here: 1) Kazmir staying healthy, and 2) Matsuzaka pitching like he is supposed to be able to. I guess you can add Beckett's back spasms to that (though not, interestingly, his former problems with blisters).

I'm a Red Sox fan, but I've been concerned about repeating all offseason. They have depth but they got what might have been a career year out of Beckett (probably not, but we'll see), and they're breaking in 2 starters who haven't proven anything yet. I give Boston the edge based on depth, but if Price (or one of the other studs they have in the minors) comes up and can get people out, that edge is lost.

Do the Yankees come close in this discussion? My gut says they have a similar configuration of hurlers (2 established, 2 high-ceiling, 1 low-ceiling suspect), but Wang-Pettitte does NOT equal Beckett-Matsuzaka or Kazmir-Shields. Though the depth question is interesting since they have Chamberlain in the bullpen.

The more I think about it, the more I see this being a lot more-open of an AL East than I originally thought. If most of these guys perform up to expectations the Orioles will lose 110 games.

This may have been addressed elsewhere, but while were on topic--what's the finish order in the AL East?

This may have been addressed elsewhere, but while were on topic--what's the finish order in the AL East?

I'd say Red Sox-Yankees-Rays-Blue Jays-Orioles.

That's my finish order as well, but I wouldn't be hugely surprised if the Rays somehow finish second.

I like Sonnanstine, but from what I hear he doesn't have much in the way of stuff.

That's my finish order as well, but I wouldn't be hugely surprised if the Rays somehow finish second.

Only if the Yankees' rotation collapses, which is a reasonable possibility.

What's the word on the Rays bullpen? If that becomes close to league average then the Rays might compete for the Wild Card.

I read Pinto's article, too--it's a bit short on analysis, using almost solely PECOTA projections,...

The Sporting News is for the sports generalist, isn't it? For its typical reader, since Pinto gives no way for that reader to verfiy PECOTA's validity, his article is completely without merit.

edit: and having just RTFA I'll add that it's far, far worse. I'm surprised the putz didn't also make fun of David's grandmother.

http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080328&content_id=2463807&vkey=news_tb&fext;=.jsp&c_id=tb

Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler, Gary Glover, Trever Miller, Scott Dohmann and J.P. Howell. Not bad, actually, assuming Percival is for real for one more year.

Injuries will surely break in such a way that one can't easily compare the Sox and Rays rotations based solely on results at the end of the year.

That said, I like the Rays' chances of having fewer injuries than the Sox rotation.

I hope he at least admits he's wrong to be so snide after the Rays show some solid results this year.

Hey, quit insulting the Ford Pinto. That was the first new car I had ever bought in my life. I was proud of it at the time. The only thing wrong with a Pinto was that it might blow up, but, well, they fixed it.

Maybe that isn't the most comprehensive article Dave Pinto has ever written. But this guy's rebuttal is useless. Did he give any logical evidence why Pinto is wrong? As best I can tell, Pinto is wrong because he disagrees with the blogger's preconceptions. It didn't matter what projection system Pinto plugged into his analysis, this blogger would have lashed out at it if it gave an answer he didn't want.

Pinto doesn't hold the article out to be anything that its not. Its short on analysis and doesn't do much to support PECOTA, but for crying out loud, he doesn't say it does. It's like "well golly, the results of this projection system might surprise you." That's more than enough for the sports generalist - the audience to which it was directed.

This Bugs and Cranks response really pissed me off. There is a lot of silly stuff that gets linked to this site, but I found this particularly offensive. Pinto is a good writer - regardless of whether he is right or wrong, this other blogger shouldn't have been as obnoxious. Not to mention wrong, mean-spirited, and not funny.