The contract would be one of the largest given by Stuart Sternberg’s ownership group

Fully financed by MLB revenue sharing, of course.

So, would the Red Sox would've been better off with Pena at 1b and Youks at 3b for the next three years? At least Yankee fans should be happy--no one is blocking Shelley Duncan in NY now.

ZiPS on Pena: .266/.400/.531

Hard to believe he had two more years under team control.

So, would the Red Sox would've been better off with Pena at 1b and Youks at 3b for the next three years?

I imagine Texas, Oakland, and Detroit wouldn't mind having him back either. Hell, every team in baseball pretty much had the opportunity to pick him up for cheap.

I'm thrilled for Pena. I'm glad he finally had his big breakout year - it was beginning to seem like he was running out of chances.

This contract is a bargain, considering Scott Boras is his agent. Not only am I surprised he signed an extension, I'm almost shocked at how low it is.

Hell, every team in baseball pretty much had the opportunity to pick him up for cheap.

Yeah, but this isn't the same guy who showed up in 06. He must have realized he was about to fall out of baseball and put some effort into getting back into shape last offseason. He's just a different hitter than the guy the Yanks and Red Sox cut two years ago and only teams without any chance to win anything, like the D-Rays last year have an opportunity to take a chance on a player like that.

That being said, I always kinda liked Pena and I'm happy for him. It also qualifies as a sweet move by the D-Rays to pick him up and then sign him for only a little bit more than Shea Hillenbrand money.

I'd imagine the Yankees could use Carlos Pena over the next 3 years a lot more than the Red Sox would. Glad the guy finally had a breakout year...

Did something change for Pena last year, or is it entirely possible he just had a fluke year? Serious question.

This is what sportswriters don't understand about the limitations of sabremetrics. They think it's all guts, and clutchness that sabes dismiss. But the truth is the human animal is complex, and sabremetrics as yet can't account or predict the impact of domestic issues, alchohol issues, motivational issues, depression, immaturity. If they were easily predictable automatons, it would be a boring game. This is where true scouting needs to fill in the blanks, stop worrying about a guy's "look", let the stats tell you his capabilities/potential, and let the scouts try to predict how well he'll achieve them.

Did something change for Pena last year, or is it entirely possible he just had a fluke year?

IM(very worthless)O, I think Pena was a guy who was just getting by on talent and not really working very hard to get the most out of his talent. I think 06 was probably a wake call and he finally busted his ass in the offseason and put together the kind of season everyone thought he was capable of 6 years ago. His bat speed made him look like a completely different hitter then in 06. I'm inclined to believe he can do it again, you don't get to be the prospect he was without the kind of talent to put up seasons like the one he just put up. I think he will produce like an All-Star, if not throw up a 172 OPS+, as long as he keeps working hard to excel at his craft.

Or, he used some undetectable PED for a year, took the reasonable chance that he wouldn't be caught (since he really had nothing to lose), and signed a below value contract as quickly as possible since he intends to stop using.

Don't like thinking that, but it's where we are..

Funny his defense is rated so poorly. I remember when he came up with Oakland, everyone touted his handy glovework at first. I wonder if it got bad or if it was never all that good to begin with.

sabremetrics as yet can't account or predict the impact of domestic issues, alchohol issues, motivational issues, depression, immaturity...This is where true scouting needs to fill in the blanks, stop worrying about a guy's "look", let the stats tell you his capabilities/potential, and let the scouts try to predict how well he'll achieve them.

It's asking a lot of scouting to evaluate domestic issues, alcohol issues, motivational issues, depression, and immaturity.

I don't care what ZIPS says - If I'm Carlos Pena, if somebody offers me 24 million dollars after I've been kicked around for a few years and picked up off of the scrap heap, I take it.

At least Yankee fans should be happy--no one is blocking Shelley Duncan in NY now.

Good point. Only thing blocking Duncan now is his lack of major league level talent.

Fully financed by MLB revenue sharing, of course.

Can't complain about that so long as teams use the money to improve their on the field product. Better Sternberg's way than Pohlad's way, no????

I don't care what ZIPS says - If I'm Carlos Pena, if somebody offers me 24 million dollars after I've been kicked around for a few years and picked up off of the scrap heap, I take it.

No kidding. We often talk about whether signings were good moves or dumb moves by both team and player, but it is very, very understandable given Pena's career path that we would jump at this contract, hold his breath until it is signed, and be happy with the knowledge that he's set for life.

And who knows? I imagine there are just as many players who thrive given the absence of pressure to cash in as become fat and happy now that they are set. Just as fear of leaving the league may have motivated him to work harder before 2007, maybe some of his previous problems stemmed from panic that he'd never make it.

Holy cow, I knew Pena had a big year, I didn't realize he had a friggin' 172 OPS+ though. I thought it was, like, 155.

Better Sternberg's way than Pohlad's way, no????

I agree 100%..next question to be answered is how long/how much are they willing to sign Kazmir for?

This contract is a bargain, considering Scott Boras is his agent. Not only am I surprised he signed an extension, I'm almost shocked at how low it is.

He still was under Tampa's control for the next two years, so would he really have gotten a lot more than $8 million in arbitration based on one good season? Seems like this is a good deal for both sides. If Pena continues to hit like he did last season then the next two years are excellent deals for Tampa, and if he doesn't, he has $24 million.

Pena had a fluky year, but he was worth picking up even if he didn't end up hitting like he did. ZiPS, for example, had him projected at a 117 OPS+.

IM(very worthless)O, I think Pena was a guy who was just getting by on talent and not really working very hard to get the most out of his talent. I think 06 was probably a wake call and he finally busted his ass in the offseason and put together the kind of season everyone thought he was capable of 6 years ago.

If that's the case, he'll probably slack off the next two years and then get in shape for his contract year.

Taxman, from the SP Times:

The Rays avoided arbitration with ace LHP Scott Kazmir after all, agreeing to a one-year deal (in principle) for around $3.5-million just before the team-imposed noon deadline.
As recently as mid-morning, Kazmir said he expected to end up in arbitration but negotiations apparently continued right up to the end. He was in line for a salary somewhere between $2-million and $4-million.

I agree 100%..next question to be answered is how long/how much are they willing to sign Kazmir for?

I'd guess he gets traded. With the likes of Shields and Garza in the rotation and guys like Price, Davis and McGee waiting in the wings, they may be looking to parlay the soon-to-be very pricey Kazmir for a nice package of players. I'd imagine they'll keep a close eye on what Bedard brings the O's...........then ask for more than that for Kazmir.

The Rays may have some of the best bargains around. And they can't win. That's the Tampa version of moneyball for you.

It's the best there is.

Who would have thought in 2002, when Carlos Pena (then 24) and Eric Byrnes (26) were A's teammates, that this off-season Byrnes would sign a 3 year deal for $30 million while Pena "only" got 3 years, $24 million? Pena was clearly pegged back then for star status, while I don't think anyone would have been shocked in '02 to learn that Byrnes was out of baseball by 2008.

I'm sure most Primates feel like the D-Rays got a better bargain with their signing. Time will tell. Each of the contracts is largely based on a single "break-out" season at the plate.* Yet two things Byrnes has over Pena, even if each of them reverts to being lesser hitters, is that he contributes a lot more defensively, both due to his position and his skills, and he is an excellent base-stealer.

* I suppose Byrne's 104 OPS+ does not qualify as worthy of "break out." But his 9.4 WARP3 in 2007 was quite a lot higher than his previous best (6.3 in 2004).... Carlos Pena's WARP3 in 2007 was 11.9. His previous best was 3.9 in 2004.

Rotoworld: Pena will donate $225,000 to the Rays Baseball Foundation

Who would have thought in 2002, when Carlos Pena (then 24) and Eric Byrnes (26) were A's teammates, that this off-season Byrnes would sign a 3 year deal for $30 million while Pena "only" got 3 years, $24 million?

Who would have thought that both would get that kind of money after both were pretty much let go, available for anyone to pick up?

Who would have thought that both would get that kind of money after both were pretty much let go, available for anyone to pick up?

Eric Byrnes wouldn't have.

Byrnes is by no means a great broadcaster. He's not terrible and for an active athlete, he's better than average. Those of us in northern California (and satellite listners on Sirius, I think) can hear him host sports talk call-in shows. During the Christmas-New Year's period, he filled in as a host quite a few times on KNBR in San Francisco (the Giants' station). One of the other fill-in hosts -- it may have been former Giants' announcer Ted Robinson -- asked Byrnes why he was spending his vacation doing this? He didn't need the money, Robinson (or whoever it was) said. Byrnes answered that he did it simply because he loved radio and sports and wanted to be a sports broadcaster on radio since he was in the minor leagues. Robinson (or whoever) asked him if he knew then he was going to make $30 million, would he have wanted it as badly? Byrnes hesitated a moment. I don't recall his exact words, but he said something like no, I never expected to have a long career in baseball where I made a lot of money. That's all been a surprise and if he had known that was coming his way all along, he might not have worked as hard as he has to make it in radio. But since he started doing radio work (when he was still in the minors), he enjoys it so much that no matter how much money he ultimately makes, he will stay with broadcasting. I thought his answer was interesting and refreshing (even if I failed to convey that in paraphrasing what he said).

This is a poor signing for TBay. Since they won't keep Pena after he becomes a free agent, it doesn't help them to buy his good will. If he's a bust this costs them a fortune, and if he's good, all they lose is one year of performace. Not a smart move, imo.

This is a poor signing for TBay. Since they won't keep Pena after he becomes a free agent, it doesn't help them to buy his good will. If he's a bust this costs them a fortune, and if he's good, all they lose is one year of performace. Not a smart move, imo.


They would lose a year of performance worth 15-16 million dollars if he's good. If 24 million total is a fortune, that has to count for something.

If he performs this year, compare what having him on 2/16 rather than final year arbitration will do for his trade value.

I'd say the small risk of losing 20 million or so of the Yankees' money is more than compensated by the upside in this contract.

It's not the specific signing that excites me, but the fact that the TB organization is starting to look at longer contracts for their bettre players. I figured Pena, Kazmir and Crawford would all be toast by the ASB, but now I do have some hopes of seeing them have a competitive team sometime in the future.

I've been frustrated by the Rays growth over the last 5 years, and was sick of hearing how they are two years away every year. Now, when I hear the phrase "two years away", I can at least see where they might have a plan, and are implementing it.

Wonder how they'd do in the NL Central this year.....

If this prevents them from signing Kazmir long term, then I don't think it was a good idea.

I'd guess he gets traded. With the likes of Shields and Garza in the rotation and guys like Price, Davis and McGee waiting in the wings, they may be looking to parlay the soon-to-be very pricey Kazmir for a nice package of players. I'd imagine they'll keep a close eye on what Bedard brings the O's...........then ask for more than that for Kazmir.

If they wanted to trade Kazmir, shouldn't they do that before the Orioles trade Bedard, so that they have one more suitor. In fact, shouldn't they have talked to Arizona about him before they traded for Haren?

this guy is killing my fantasy team