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You're talking about 30 attempts per year. I'm shocked there's some randomness. Plus most attempts are under 40 yards, where I'm sure most kickers can make 90%. So you have a few longer attempts per season which separate good kickers from bad kickers. The numbers may not be consistent, but they are not "random."
Dave Ragone
Chris Simms
Seneca Wallace
Brian St Pierre
Brooks Bollinger
Kliff Kingsbury
Gibran Hamian
Ken Dorsey
Matt Schaub
Luke McCown
Craig Krenzel
Andy Hall
Jeff Smoker
John Navarre
COdy Pickett
Casey Bramlett
BJ Symons
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
Kyle Orton
Stefan LeFors
Adrian McPherson
Derek Anderson
Matt Cassell
Let's be generous and throw in the 2 of 500 or so that made the NFL
Tony Romo
Jared Lorenzen
Now it may be nice to knock a single team for missing a Romo or Anderson, but you are going to be a lot better off taking a Grossman than waiting around and getting stuck with the Craig Krenzel and Jeff Smokers of the world.
Taking the worse 1st rounder and finding 2 or 3 laters than 1st round picks over 3 years that would be better choices does not seem like that solid of an argument.
Finding 6 or 7 non-cuttable players and 2 to 4 real players among that pack also doesn't seem like safe odds.
For every Manning, you may find 1/8 of an Akili Smith, but for every Romo you find a whole truckload of Seneca Wallaces.
How about, don't draft a QB. you can get these same QBs via free agency, waiver wire and trade.
Where drafting a player like Grossman becomes terrible is when you keep trotting him out there because of your investment in him. Grossman is no better than any of the 60 QBs that are not starting in the NFL. He is a replacement player.
In fact, save the 8-9 best QBs in the NFL. All of them are replacement level players. Sad really.
I'm sure you can pick Kliff Kingsbury up in free agency, and I bet you can get a good deal on Stefan LeFors.
You get a much lower bust percentage on linemen, but the bust percentage on skill players is about the same. Your pro bowl percentage is usually a little bit higher.
Is that necessarily true in NFL? Or more specifically, using Justin's earlier example, is getting a QB to make quicker decision, release the ball quicker, throw the ball out of play, is that more easily taught? I tend to not think so because a lot of QB would are reputed to hold on to the ball for too long, they keep holding on to the ball for too long. But is the inefficiency not good instruction?
There is no "market inefficiency" There are some observations or different strategies about the skills you may look for in developing talents.
The exception might be for something like size. I imagine that most NFL teams will draft those big strong backs like Stewart ahead of a guy like Hart, who is really, really tiny. Beane would probably draft the Harts of the world, but I doubt he would have much more success than he does drafting fat catchers. If he does it enough, he might find one of those guys that would stick, but its not a "market inefficiency"
Ray Lewis broke Eddie. God, I love watching Ray play, he's all over the field yet I think I could out-run him.
Or you can trade as I suggested, for Favre. Or pickup K Warner on waivers.
I'm sure you can pick Kliff Kingsbury up in free agency, and I bet you can get a good deal on Stefan LeFors.
I'm with Beano on this one, although that is what the Bears did, they signed Kordell Stewart the same year they drafted Grossman. For Grossman's first three seasons, the Bears were trotting out Kordell Stewart, Chris Chandler, Chad Hutchinson, Craig Krenzel and Kyle Orton under center. Grossman was hurt while they rolled those last three out, so we can't quite hold that against him. But it goes to show that Bears are terrible at evaluating QBs. They probably would have been better off drafting any other position and just signing mediocre QB after mediocre QB, because then they could at least not had their hands tied into trying every which way to make Rex Grossman a starter when he shouldn't be one. If they waited a year or two to draft a QB in the first, the Bears would have been a position to draft Losman, Rodgers or Campbell.
You still have your superstar quarterbacks at the top of the league the same that you always have, but the QBs in the middle and lower rungs need a lot of time working with the same guys in order to progress, and you don't have that to the same extent now with so many guys being shuffled around every offseason.
This has also led to an increased focus in the NFL on a "win now" approach, which I believe has caused more teams to rush guys into the starting QB position much earlier than in the old days, often before they're really ready for it.
Brad Johnson - Tampa - FA
Jake Delhomme - Carolina - Undrafted FA
Matt Hassellbeck - Seattle - Trade
Rich Gannon - Oakland - FA
Kurt Warner - St Louis - FA (2)
Kerry Collins - NY Giants - FA
Trent Dilfer - Baltimore - FA
Brett Favre - Green Bay - Trade (2)
Chris Chandler - Falcons - Trade
Steve Young - 49ers - Trade
Stan Humphries - Chargers - Trade
13 Super Bowls (1995 - 2007) 50% of the QBs or 13/26 were acquired via "other means" than draft.
It is flat wrong to say:
The goal is the Super Bowl right? At the very least this list shows that you don't have to draft a QB in the 1st rd--or at all--, either because you can win with an average QB, or because you can get a superstar QB via "other means".
With the exception of Steve Young in your list, all those quarterbacks were easy to acquire because they weren't very good, or at least they weren't perceived to be very good, and usually weren't until they got into a SuperBowl caliber offense. Most of these players would not have been picked in the first round at the time of their trades.
I think you are just proving that QB performance isn't easy to predict. That may be so, but it doesn't mean that first round picks don't average out as much better QBs over time than later round picks. Take this year, you can't get a decent proven QB through trade or free agency. But one of the QB's traded or signed as a free agent this year will certainly turn out to be a pretty good starter in the league, you just don't know who.
Just glancing at that list, I'm not sure any of those QBs were established. Warner, Young sure weren't. I wouldn't say Johnson or Delhomme are franchise guys either. Santana and ARod were, imo without question, the best players are their positions, and both were dealt.
Because of the non-guaranteed deals, I don't think any stud at any position hits the FA market, outside of weird personality things. And even the trades are give aways.
Is there a position where I cannot do the same thing. Can't we run down RB and find that a percentage of them were acquired by other means.
The existence of a Tom Brady does not invalidate teh existence of a Peyton Manning.
If you look at QB as a position, its evaluation is pretty good for skill positions. Its bust percentage is usually good or better than RB, and that is true even if you are setting the bar on busts to include current and multi-year starters. Its a lot better than WRs, who it appears NFL people have a real tough time evaluating in college (see the Detroit Lions). The Pro Bowl percentage is as good or higher than the non-skill positions.
We could conduct that same analysis you are doing with all the positions and determine, "We shouldn't hold a draft."
Favre is interesting. He was drafted in the 2nd rd #33 overall in 1991. Apparently R Wolf was the only person on earth that was convinced he would be a superstar, because he dealt #19 overall pick in 1992, RB, Tony Smith to the Falcons, for their last year's 2nd rd pick.
Has there ever been such a brazen trade ever? Favre was 0-3 with 2 picks, I believe in Atlanta. Yet, Wolf "overpaid" for Favre.
Because Wolf was convinced, I think it is very safe to say trading T Smith for Favre was indeed a cheaper way of getting him.
that is exactly the point now, isn't it?
Favre wasn't a failure. His head coach never wanted to draft him, Favre never played and they simply didn't get along. Favre largely kept his value, lost nothing from his one year in ATL, in fact went for more.
Yes, and the idiot Jet brain trust were practically creaming their pants because they were convinced that Favre was falling to them... only to see him snatched away at the last second by a team they assumed would have no interest in him... that they had a collective brain fart and instead of selecting the next best PLAYER on their list REACHED for the next QB on their list- Browning Nagel
Ron Wolf did.
You are all missing the point of this thread. It is not about 1st rd QBs being worse than the rest. It is that there are so many ways to acquire superstar QBs without the risk and cost associated with a 1st rd pick. Not to mention the multi year commitment which frequently becomes a multi year mistake or bad marriage. A Smith, Couch, Leaf, Meier, we can go on.
While late rd wash outs are nearly cost free.
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
Reggie Bush
Lawrence Maroney
DeAngelo Williams
Joseph Addai
Ronnie Brown
Cedric Benson
Cadillac Williams
Steven Jackson
Chris Perry
Kevin Jones
Willis McGahee
Larry Johnson
William Greene
TJ Duckett
LaDanian Tomlinson
Deuce McAllister
Michael Bennett
Jamal Lewis
Thomas Jones
Ron Dayne
Shaun Alexander
Trung Candidate
I'm stopping at 2000 'cause I don't feel like typing anymore. Call me lazy.
That's a pretty good list. Some busts, some disappointments, I count 15 starters out of 24 players, but McAllister and Bush split time so that's really 16, is Larry Johnson healthy enough to start next year? That would make 17. Still, that's a better percentage than QBs.
The best, or 2nd best, WR in NFL history, R Moss, was just on the market.
I remember when the Giants drafted Ron Dayne- his head coach absolutely wanted no part of him...
useful player, not a star obviously, doesn't always take conditioning seriously...
random thought
so why do you need to waste your time and resources on 1st rd QBs then?
I think you made all of my points for me.
thanks
You left off the rest of that sentence:
"outside of weird personality things"
Which, of course, is one of the reasons he was on the market. And why he went back to the Pats.
Yeah, but he was traded by the Redskins, who continue to show they have no idea what they're doing from one minute to the next, so that really can't be held against you.
of course. but the committment to the QB position is unique, there is this notion that you must draft a "franchise" QB in rd 1. its just not true.
Also, a busted QB has negative value. a bust at DL can still play in the 4 man rotation, same with a CB, as a nickel back or on special teams. not to mention all of the time wasted teaching the position at the NFL level. why waste that time when you can win now with a retred vet at QB?
Actually when I think of it, the best players in baseball usually end up like Santana, never on the open market, but in a back room market. You can't tell me Zito is a top pitcher, C Silva?
nope.
that pretty much eliminates WRs.
If you set the standard as starters, then all of the QBs since 2000 have been starters. If you are talking about projecting starters for next year, its still not better than QB.
For every Akili Smith you have a Curtis Enis and Ki-Jana Carter (thank you Penn State)
For ever Ron Dayne, you have a Tim Couch
FOr every Adrian Peterson you have a Phil Rivers.
of course. but the committment to the QB position is unique, there is this notion that you must draft a "franchise" QB in rd 1. its just not true.
Also, a busted QB has negative value. a bust at DL can still play in the 4 man rotation, same with a CB, as a nickel back or on special teams. not to mention all of the time wasted teaching the position at the NFL level. why waste that time when you can win now with
Its not unique and its not true. PacMan Jones gives you the same value as Lawrence Phillips and Ryan Leaf. Head cases are head cases. Injury washouts are injury washouts.
You can win now with a veteran CB or a veteran T too. You should not overvalue QB and draft a QB higher than you can get them, but by the same token you shouldn't be waiting to let them fall either. People don't overdraft QB in the first round, and the chance to catch a star is generally higher (around 33% pro bowl percentage last time I saw someone check). If you have that talent you draft it when you should draft it.
Absolutely, and the skill positions generally have a higher degree of bustability along with a higher chance of being a Pro Bowler. QB actually does pretty well compared to the other skill positions.
But John McCain's already done that.
That's not fair. Dayne is still playing, still offering value. Couch has been out of football for years now.
That is my point, a busted QB really losses all value, while most other busted players retain some value.
then don't draft skill positions. draft lineman, draft safties....etc.
you forgot about Curt Warner. Oops, I meant DJ Dozier and Blair Thomas.
I was counting guys who were starters this season, ala post 28.
Over long periods of time, you will find teams not named Lions, do exactly this thing. They have a conservative strategy and will risk less during the draft.
The exceptions come when the player available is worth the risk because of the Pro Bowl upside. Teams aren't drafting Ki-Jana Carter and Ryan Leaf to be their 3rd down options; they are making a calculated gamble that this player will be a long time useful part of the franchise. About a third of the time they hit a pro-bowler, and a little better than half the time, they hit a multi-year starter.
The busts aren't as often with lineman, but you do have Steve Emtmen and Tony Mandarich in the high 30 to 40% of the time. Moreover, you are less likely to get an Anthony Munoz.
Completely eschewing skill positions in the draft will leave you in pretty bad shape too. This would be like Beane's fat catcher approach.
Tomlinson? How did he get on that list?
With all this talk about draft busts I'm surprised no one has posted this yet. It makes me laugh and cry. Mostly cry.
I'll be the first to bash the Jets about just about anything, but this isn't true. The Jets were desperately trying to trade up to pick Favre. The nearly had a deal in place with the Giants for their 1st round pick, but the Giants didn't want to lose Jarrod Bunch. Then they had a deal with the Cardinals for the 33rd pick (Favre went at #34), but the Cardinals backed out when Mike Jones was available.
On another note, it seems silly to say that teams shouldn't draft QBs in the first round because they can just trade for Brett Favre or pick up Kurt Warner or Tony Romo off of the scrap heap. Guys like that come around very rarely. Of course, through fortune and circumstance, you do find your fair share of mediocre QBs playing in Super Bowls, but, to steal a phrase from Bill Parcells, in the first round, you are looking for a guy who can drive the bus. You have a better shot of finding those guys in the first round of the draft than elsewhere.
Its going to be interesting in two regards of how the NFL is going to deal with things-one the influx of really talented RBs from college into the NFL (2005-Bush, 2006-Peterson, 2007-McFadden, 2008-guys like Beanie Wells or Knowshon Moreno as guys who are/might be considered the best guy coming out)
and
the increase of the use of the spread in college at bigtime college programs (see Michigan, Auburn, Florida, Texas, etc.)
That is an interesting list. I'd be very surprised if anyone in that list other than Brohm goes higher than Flacco.
The 90's Steelers are a great example of why this is a really stupid strategy. There's no question that the mid-90's Steelers were superior in talent to the 2005 Super Bowl Champions at just about every position except slot WR (Ward) and QB. The whole O'Donnell - Stewart - Maddox ridiculousness combined with the emergence of Roethlisberger is a load of evidence against this approach. Tom Brady's and Joe Montana's are the exceptions that prove the rule.
I watched O'Donnell singlehandedly lose the Superbowl to a team I hated, then I watched as MY Team threw boatload of $ at him, declaring him to be a franchise QB.
I thought then, and virtually every game thereafter, "my god, didn't they know he's not a "Superbowl" caliber QB? His team, carried him there and he blew chunks!" [Ironically aside from the Superbowl the ONE thing he was good at was avoiding interceptions].
Parcells got rid of him, and Vinny Testaverde lead them to a 112 win seasons- it's amazing what an extra 1.5 yards per pass attempt can do for an offense...
Testaverde, flawed/maddening/frustrating was a visually superior QB to O'Donnell- O'Donnell was paid far more for his 2 years as a Jet- apparently because some genius said, "He's a Superbowl QB, he took his team to the Superbowl, I know he doesn't look all that, but he has "intangibles", he'll lead our team".
At least know one is trying to make Eckstein one of the highest paid players in MLB
At times, Testaverde was a visually superior QB to just about anybody else out there. The man could throw.
So it would seem. I don't know why I didn't pick it up the first time around, the know-it-all tone of things we already know should have been a dead giveaway.
Part of that is because of their position though, offensive linemen have been getting bigger contracts than linebackers in free agency for a few years now.
No they don't. As I showed, 50% of Super Bowl QBs were just these type of players. Yes, you are more likely to get a good QB in the 1st rd, but it is not that much more likely and the cost/price of that 1st rd pick really doesn't justify the risk.
There are many costly 1st rd QB busts, there are far fewer costly waiver wire pickups, conditional trades and QB FA acquisitions.
What the hell does that mean? I bet even you don't know.
There are many costly 1st rd QB busts, there are far fewer costly waiver wire pickups, conditional trades and QB FA acquisitions.
I agree on the cost side, obviously, but really how much more likely is it to find one not in the first round? If it's a 50% chance you get that QB with a first round pick, what are the odds on each subsequent round and then FA? That's what I think BL was getting at. What percentage of the wire waiver pickups and conditional trades actually pan out? As noted earlier, the top guys are almost never FAs. Then we can do a cost/benefit analysis to see which is the smarter way to go about it.
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