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Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Chicago Sun-Times: Mariotti: Is Fukudome worth $50 million?

Hey, Mariotti…Fuku.

For every Ichiro who comes to the majors and excels, there are other Asian products who don’t match the hype. Matsui has been fairly productive, but hardly as Ruthian as projected. Dice-K was considered a disappointment of sorts until he picked up his pitching pace in October. As the negative extreme, you recall Hee-Seop Choi, who flopped with the Cubs, Marlins and Dodgers and now plays for the Kia Tigers in the South Korean KBO League. Anyone who saw the World Baseball Classic knows Fukudome will have impact. But as the regular right fielder, he will be expected to produce good numbers immediately. Is that realistic? What if he’s just a high-priced Matt Murton? Why not sign a surer commodity such as Rowand, who knows the lay of the Chicago land, has played in the National League the last two seasons and would be a fixture in center for years? This means the Cubs have little choice but to hand center field to Felix Pie, the supposed five-tool phenom who has been talked about for eons, and let him either thrive or fail.

Repoz Posted: December 12, 2007 at 05:02 PM | 26 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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   1. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: December 12, 2007 at 05:19 PM (#2642536)
Rowand is a surer commodity than Fukudome? Seems to me that Rowand is a glove man coming off a career year with a heedless style of play that leads to multiple injuries.

That same style of play has a great chance of negatively impacting Rowand's production as he plays into his thirties.
   2. Valentine Posted: December 12, 2007 at 05:19 PM (#2642537)
Fukudome: Is Jay Mariotti worth $50 thousand? "For every Neyer, there are a dozen two-bit pundits whose work is all flash and no substance."
   3. MSI Posted: December 12, 2007 at 05:32 PM (#2642552)
Is there a Zips projection out for Fukudome? Apparently Nate Silver has him at almost a 400 obp and 500 slg. That seems like a bit of an overshoot, but I think it's a great signing.
   4. Moe Greene Posted: December 12, 2007 at 05:39 PM (#2642561)
MSI: Zips

Honestly, even that's higher than what I was expecting. I've envisioned Fukudome as a Milton Bradley type.
   5. Reno Posted: December 12, 2007 at 05:43 PM (#2642566)
The CHONE system predicts .283/.373/.465 for Fukudome.

http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2007/11/kosuke-fukudome.html
   6. Al Kaline Trio Posted: December 12, 2007 at 06:19 PM (#2642632)
That same style of play has a great chance of negatively impacting Rowand's production as he plays into his thirties.


Especially when you have a brick wall in the OF with seemingly soft bushes covering it.
   7. RJ not in TO Posted: December 12, 2007 at 06:31 PM (#2642647)
Mariotti: Is Fukudome a fraud who poops his pants?
   8. bond1 Posted: December 12, 2007 at 07:27 PM (#2642696)
Fukudome's stats in Japan were very similar to Kaz Matsui. They'll be yelling the "F" word in Wrigley next year all right....
   9. aardvark Posted: December 12, 2007 at 08:52 PM (#2642753)
Pecota is more optimistic about Fukudome with a 289/.401/.504. line.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=699
   10. Gern Blanston Posted: December 12, 2007 at 08:54 PM (#2642755)
Ah, well, god knows we can't really assess the merits of a trade before Mariotti's weighed in.
   11. Gern Blanston Posted: December 12, 2007 at 09:12 PM (#2642769)
This means the Cubs have little choice but to hand center field to Felix Pie, the supposed five-tool phenom who has been talked about for eons, and let him either thrive or fail.

Heaven forbid.

He's been "talked about for eons" because he first appeared on the "top prospect" radar at 17.
   12. VoodooR Posted: December 12, 2007 at 09:25 PM (#2642795)
I wondered what had happened to Hee-Seop. I know I wasn't the only one around here that thought he was gonna be really good. In fact, I was p!ssed when they traded him for Derek Lee!
   13. Gern Blanston Posted: December 12, 2007 at 09:27 PM (#2642799)
I know I wasn't the only one around here that thought he was gonna be really good. In fact, I was p!ssed when they traded him for Derek Lee!

Ditto on both counts. As a Cub fan, I was glad to be wrong about the trade in terms of what Lee vs. Choi ended up being worth, but I wish Choi had panned out someplace. He seemed like he'd be a force.
   14. JPWF13 Posted: December 12, 2007 at 09:45 PM (#2642837)
Fukudome's stats in Japan were very similar to Kaz Matsui. They'll be yelling the "F" word in Wrigley next year all right....


Actually Fukudome's stats almost split the difference between the two Matsui's...
   15. rfloh Posted: December 12, 2007 at 09:51 PM (#2642853)
Fukudome's stats in Japan were very similar to Kaz Matsui. They'll be yelling the "F" word in Wrigley next year all right....


Kazuo Matsui: 309-361-486

Kosuke Fukudome: 305-397-543
   16. Ennder Posted: December 12, 2007 at 10:12 PM (#2642888)
Even if he is just mediocre the merchandising will bring back a lot of the money so I think it is a good risk.
   17. aardvark Posted: December 13, 2007 at 12:14 AM (#2643074)
Oh and the ZiPS projection for Fukudome in 08 is .293/.382/.460
   18. Crispix Attacks Posted: December 13, 2007 at 12:17 AM (#2643075)
Rowand is a surer commodity than Fukudome? Seems to me that Rowand is a glove man coming off a career year with a heedless style of play that leads to multiple injuries.

Only one such injury, I think.
   19. Crispix Attacks Posted: December 13, 2007 at 12:19 AM (#2643077)
He's been "talked about for eons" because he first appeared on the "top prospect" radar at 17.

It seemed like Corey Patterson was talked about for even more eons, and they made a mistake by giving up on him, I think.
   20. Valentine Posted: December 13, 2007 at 12:23 AM (#2643084)
Isn't merchandising income split between all 30 teams?
   21. johnny_mostil Posted: December 13, 2007 at 12:25 AM (#2643085)
Only one such injury, I think.

True. His other major life-threatening injury came from reckless driving on an ATV in the offseason.
   22. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: December 13, 2007 at 12:26 AM (#2643086)
Only one such injury, I think.

He missed time in 2003 after crashing a dirt bike during the offseason.

The guy only has one gear, which makes him a blast to watch, but it also makes him a continuous risk.
   23. McCoy Posted: December 13, 2007 at 12:35 AM (#2643095)
Isn't merchandising income split between all 30 teams?

Not at the park.

It seemed like Corey Patterson was talked about for even more eons, and they made a mistake by giving up on him, I think

Corey Patterson's "value" was tied to his defense and it doesn't really seem like it is all that hard to get centerfielders to put up good numbers at Wrigley.
   24. shoewizard Posted: December 13, 2007 at 03:00 AM (#2643215)
I know I wasn't the only one around here that thought he was gonna be really good. In fact, I was p!ssed when they traded him for Derek Lee!

Ditto on both counts. As a Cub fan, I was glad to be wrong about the trade in terms of what Lee vs. Choi ended up being worth, but I wish Choi had panned out someplace. He seemed like he'd be a force.


You guys were not Alone ;)
   25. BeanoCook Posted: December 13, 2007 at 03:37 AM (#2643273)
Mariotti's "analysis" on Asian players lacks in all areas. Sounds just like the analysis going around about college coaches in the NFL. Just point out the ones that fit your angle and ignore the obvious points that prove you wrong.


Oh well. I see FUKUDOME as a couple of Troy O'Leary career years type player on offense.
   26. KJOK Posted: December 13, 2007 at 08:26 AM (#2643467)
Oh and the ZiPS projection for Fukudome in 08 is .293/.382/.460


And just to add another one, the KJOK projection is .290/.388/.503

Later today, the complete batting line projection can be found here:

The Japanese are Coming
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