I don't see why the Cubs can't let Murton start in RF against LHP, while Pie would start in CF against RHP, and have Fukudome switch between CF and RF depending on the handedness of the pitcher.

Hmmm...our season of destiny is not off to a good start. If you're going to keep Cedeno and Fontenot, can't one of them learn to run around CF in a non-bmbarrassing way? Can't Fuku already run around CF in a non-embarrassing way?

Ahh well, as I predicted, Murton's career is basically over -- AAAA bench player. Maybe he gets a Craig Monroe-like shot sometime in the next couple years but he'll never amount to anything because nobody will ever give him a chance.

This is something I'd like to see the MLBPA address. Here's a guy who's 26, seems certainly worthy of an ML roster spot, albeit maybe a marginal one. But here he is, with an option left, still at least one full season away from arbitration, and at least 4 from FA. The Cubs control this guy potentially through his age 30 season.

I'm not sure what to do, but I think I'd start by greatly reducing most of those clocks (well the minor-league ones) based on age at draft/signing (or seasons in college or whatever).

So let's see we're up to (off the top of my head)...

C -- Salty
2B -- Gotay?
3B -- Longoria
LF -- Murton
RF -- Bruce

I'm not sure if we can count Rasmus, nobody seems too upset by him. I'm tempted to slot Votto in at 1B just for being buried, but his still on the team, right and let's see how good a "why are these guys sent down team" we can put together before cheating.

Here's a guy who's 26, seems certainly worthy of an ML roster spot, albeit maybe a marginal one.

Murton is in a tough spot. He's not so good that anyone would give something valuable for him but he's too good to be given away for free.

Omar needs to move on this. He's better than Pagan.

Daily Herald: Murton out (of job) in left field

Over the next few days, Hendry will try to trade Murton, something he has been trying to do without success since December.

But Hendry will not give Murton away. Just as other GMs have tried to squeeze Hendry on deals this off-season, Hendry may take a hard line on Murton and ask for a top prospect or two in return.

If that doesn't happen, the Cubs can option Murton to Class AAA Iowa.
...
Murton wouldn't ask for a trade, but he seems to think he might be better off playing in the big leagues elsewhere.

"I'm a Chicago Cub right now," he said. "It's no secret. There isn't a player in here who doesn't want to play. I think I'm better suited being out there on the field on a consistent basis. That might not present itself here for a while.

"So, if the opportunity presents itself to go somewhere else and I get a chance to play, great. If I'm still here in Chicago, that's great, too."

He railed AAA to the tune of a 951 OPS last season and has a major league OPS of 820. I mean... is he a butcher out there? This seems beyond ridiculous.

If you need a 1B for the team, Steve Pearce would work, although in an ideal world he'd play RF.

I've defended Murton for a long time, but the Cubs detest him so much that by now I have to start thinking there's something we don't know about him that's keeping him out of their lineup. It's not just a Bruce/Votto kind of situation where the team is taking its sweet time making room out of him; the team is going out of its way to bring in free-agent replacements to make sure he doesn't play. It could just be that Hendry and Piniella are idiots, but

a. They hate Murton so much that there has to be something to it, doesn't there? and
b. They can't trade him, so apparently it's not just Hendry that doesn't think he's worth much.

Murton has a career line of .296/.365/.455 in 917 PAs with average defense in a corner. That's a starter on quite a few teams, but I guess the problem is it's not a starter on a championship-caliber team, so the kind of teams that he'd improve are also the kind of teams that aren't in serious contention and thus aren't minded to give up a decent young pitcher to get him. It's puzzling, because Hendry doesn't want Murton on the major league roster, but he does want him in AAA in case injuries strike.

Does anybody know if Murton has a reputation of being lazy, or a jackass, or something?

Murton would be a good fit in Seattle, San Diego, San Francisco and with the Mets at a minimum. If Hendry wants to trade him, he should be able to.

Please bring him back to Boston! Please!

Please bring him back to Boston! Please!

This is sort of Murton's issue, though. He can't play RF because his arm is terrible, and he can't play CF because he lacks the range. He would, in essence, be Manny's backup and nothing more. Even as a better hitter than Brandon Moss, he's significantly less valuable for depth than Moss is.

Murton's value is in being about average in LF. That's a good thing, but he can't do anything else, and needs to go to a team that's looking for an average LF. That narrows his options considerably.

Please bring him back to Boston! Please!

Please come to Boston for the springtime
The ballclub there says they've got lots of room...

Omar needs to move on this. He's better than Pagan.

What reasonable trade candidates do the Mets have that the Cubs would want? The Cubs wanted Marlon Byrd from Texas, and I don't think the Mets have anybody like that.

You'd think Oakland would have some interest in Murton, considering they're starting Emil Brown, for now, and you have to wonder if Cust will repeat 2007.

Murton's value is in being about average in LF. That's a good thing, but he can't do anything else, and needs to go to a team that's looking for an average LF. That narrows his options considerably.

And that, historically, is the kind of player that tends to spend most or all of his career with bad teams, because good teams are usually looking for something better in left field. If a good team comes up with this kind of player, I don't think it's uncommon for him to stay buried on the depth chart for quite some time until the good team finally lets him go elsewhere. He'd be an upgrade for the Marlins, but the Marlins aren't going to trade for him.

You'd think Oakland would have some interest in Murton, considering they're starting Emil Brown, for now, and you have to wonder if Cust will repeat 2007.

This is kind of why I suspect Hendry really prefers to keep Murton stashed in AAA on an in-case-of-emergency-break-glass basis, out of being paranoid about being racked by outfield injuries. Murton's not too easily tradeable, but it is probable that a team like Oakland would give up a half-decent young pitcher. Hendry's probably asking too much and perfectly okay with wasting Murton's life in Iowa. What's more, that may actually be the right decision for Hendry, however cruel it might be to Murton.

Remember, the pressure's high on Hendry right now. Murton is depth; Hendry doesn't want to trade his depth for a minor league pitcher or two, because if he does that and then some injuries hit, Hendry will lose his job; and Murton can't be worked into any kind of Brian Roberts trade or etc. because teams looking to trade actual high-quality players don't want guys like Matt Murton back. So faced with the choice of trading Murton to Oakland for J. Random 21-year-old A ball pitcher and keeping him, Hendry thinks it's in his own personal best interests to just keep Murton in AAA, and he's probably right.

To AAA over R johnson and Fontenot and Ward? Or the umpteenth pitcher? I cannot believe Murton wouldn't help the team more as a 2-day-a-week OFer and pinch hitter than the other 25th man. It ain't like their lineup won't have 6 bats weaker than his begging for a stick when they are down in the late innings.

So faced with the choice of trading Murton to Oakland for J. Random 21-year-old A ball pitcher and keeping him, Hendry thinks it's in his own personal best interests to just keep Murton in AAA, and he's probably right.

It's also in the Cubs best interest. As you said, Murton is outfield depth, and he's probably better insurance for a corner outfielder than any other team has.

That said, I hate how this is working out for Murton. I think he deserves his shot, and is a victim of circumstance.

You'd think Oakland would have some interest in Murton, considering they're starting Emil Brown, for now, and you have to wonder if Cust will repeat 2007.

If the A's find themselves with a chance at the division, there's a plan A out there. If they don't have a chance, they'll stick with Brown against lefties and let Denorfia and Sweeney and probably CarGo play a lot to see what they have for next year. This is my guess, at least. If Murton hit lefty, I think the A's would be all over him.

And that, historically, is the kind of player that tends to spend most or all of his career with bad teams, because good teams are usually looking for something better in left field.

Yeah. For a good team to accept average production in LF, they better have some pretty strong bats up the middle, and even with the arrival of Soto, that ain't the Cubs.

He'd be a nice fit for the Phils ... I've heard mixed reviews on his arm, but I think we could survive a one year platoon with Jenkins in right, then take over in LF when Burrell is inevitably allowed to go elsewhere this offseason. A nice AVG and OBP-heavy RH bat in the middle of all those lefties. Unfortunately, I don't know what they could possibly offer the Cubs.

You'd think that the Indians would be all over him with the "production" they've been getting from the OF corners.

It's also in the Cubs best interest. As you said, Murton is outfield depth, and he's probably better insurance for a corner outfielder than any other team has.

Yes, but that's also what's so strange about the way Hendry's handling him. It's not just that Hendry doesn't want Murton on the lineup; he'd prefer not to have him on the team at all if possible, to enough of an extent that he went out and signed Fukudome to replace him in the lineup, then brought in Reed Johnson to replace him on the bench.

If Soriano pulled a hammy in May and missed six weeks, the Right Thing is to bring Murton up and install him as the everyday left fielder in the meantime, keeping Reed Johnson in the fourth outfielder role, but based on the track record here, I suspect Reed Johnson would become the everyday left fielder and Murton would get called up and parked on the bench.

Remember, the pressure's high on Hendry right now. Murton is depth; Hendry doesn't want to trade his depth for a minor league pitcher or two, because if he does that and then some injuries hit, Hendry will lose his job; and Murton can't be worked into any kind of Brian Roberts trade or etc. because teams looking to trade actual high-quality players don't want guys like Matt Murton back. So faced with the choice of trading Murton to Oakland for J. Random 21-year-old A ball pitcher and keeping him, Hendry thinks it's in his own personal best interests to just keep Murton in AAA, and he's probably right.

I think this is the story. We rightfully complain about the Cubs undervaluing Murton, but the fact is that there are probably no teams clamoring to get him. Ironically, the Cubs are probably a team where he'd be useful on the major-league roster, but we should be used to that kind of irony by now.

Another problem with Murton is that Hendry's constant jerking him around and refusing to give him a major league job makes other GM's assume that there's something wrong with him. Hendry has ruined any potential trade value Murton might have had. The Indians, for instance, look at Murton, see a guy who hits in AAA but whose team doesn't trust him with a job, and say "can we be really sure we're going to get real consistent production out of this guy in the pennant race? We're not going to give up any real talent to take a risk on this guy."

I'm not saying that's the right way to value Murton... I'm just observing that's most likely the thought pattern.

Another problem with Murton is that Hendry's constant jerking him around and refusing to give him a major league job makes other GM's assume that there's something wrong with him.

Who told you this?

He'd be a nice fit for the Phils ... I've heard mixed reviews on his arm, but I think we could survive a one year platoon with Jenkins in right, then take over in LF when Burrell is inevitably allowed to go elsewhere this offseason. A nice AVG and OBP-heavy RH bat in the middle of all those lefties. Unfortunately, I don't know what they could possibly offer the Cubs.

Well, I think we all know what the Cubs want. As far as second basemen go, the Phils have a pretty good prospect at AA, in Brad Harman. Piniella might not be able to deal with his bizarre Australio-speak, though.

All right--enough with the damn "second baseman to the Cubs" wisecracks already (yes, I've made them myself from time to time), unless that second baseman's name is Brian Roberts. It makes for a pretty boring discussion.

I'll stick by my original proposal: Murton to the Mets for Feliciano, straight up. Mets get their righty-hitting LF, Cubs get the strong lefty bullpen arm they need.

Ironically, the Cubs are probably a team where he'd be useful on the major-league roster, but we should be used to that kind of irony by now.

I don't know about this, unless Fukudome ends up needing a platoon partner, which I kind of doubt. Murton can't play center, doesn't really have the arm for right, and doesn't have the bat to displace Soriano or Fukudome on a regular basis. And even if we assume Murton could play first (not that anyone here was), Lee's generally healthy (his broken wrist two years ago notwithstanding), and hits with the same handedness as Murton; the Cubs backup 1b (Ward) has the advantage of batting lefty.

I've always liked Murton a lot, but I've come to grips with the likelihood that he's no more than a tweener at an outfield corner, which is pretty much where he has to play. And I think having him around strictly as a righty pinch hitter's kind of a waste. I don't know that other teams value him that highly (or should), but he'd clearly be more useful for teams like the Mets than he'd be for the Cubs, so even if the Cubs aren't getting a top prospect in return (which is unrealistic), they should be able to get SOMETHING useful for him.

I feel bad for Murton, and I wish things had turned out better for him, but the reality is what it is.

The Cubs wanted Marlon Byrd from Texas, and I don't think the Mets have anybody like that.

Having signed Johnson, I don't think the Cubs are that hot for someone like Byrd anymore.

I'm fairly happy with the Johnson signing if it means the Cubs aren't trading actual talent for someone like Byrd or Coco Crisp. Johnson didn't cost any talent, costs minimal money, and isn't as likely to end up stealing a lot of Pie's playing time as Crisp or Byrd would probably be.

So faced with the choice of trading Murton to Oakland for J. Random 21-year-old A ball pitcher and keeping him, Hendry thinks it's in his own personal best interests to just keep Murton in AAA, and he's probably right.

And much though I'd like to see Murton get playing time someplace, I agree with this.

I'm far less sold on Pie and would've liked to seen them get Crisp as an insurance policy both in the short and medium-terms.

This does not mean I've given up on Pie or anything, but I would be ok with phasing him in -- perhaps starting 50% of the time against RHPs, then working his way up (or out).

It's not just that Hendry doesn't want Murton on the lineup; he'd prefer not to have him on the team at all if possible, to enough of an extent that he went out and signed Fukudome to replace him in the lineup, then brought in Reed Johnson to replace him on the bench.

You can't blame the Cubs for signing Fukudome. I guess I can understand the Reed signing for OF flexibility. Murton's LF limitations don't make him an ideal 4th OFer.

If Soriano pulled a hammy in May and missed six weeks, the Right Thing is to bring Murton up and install him as the everyday left fielder in the meantime, keeping Reed Johnson in the fourth outfielder role, but based on the track record here, I suspect Reed Johnson would become the everyday left fielder and Murton would get called up and parked on the bench.

I agree that the right decision would be to bring up Murton to start him, leaving Reed as the 4th. But you are probably right.

The real reason Murton is screwed? Teams deciding they need to carry 12 to 13 pitchers. How can an NL team not have at least two quality bats on the bench is beyond my understanding, but that is how its done nowadays. I guess managers look smarter bringing in relievers to face one or two batters than to use a guy like Murton to PH.

I'm far less sold on Pie and would've liked to seen them get Crisp as an insurance policy both in the short and medium-terms.

This does not mean I've given up on Pie or anything, but I would be ok with phasing him in -- perhaps starting 50% of the time against RHPs, then working his way up (or out).

I disagree, both in terms of your assessment of Pie (there's no way he should be limited to half the starts against righties) and in terms of Crisp being a suitable insurance policy. He's really not a very good CF.

The real reason Murton is screwed? Teams deciding they need to carry 12 to 13 pitchers. How can an NL team not have at least two quality bats on the bench is beyond my understanding, but that is how its done nowadays.

Concur. I think Murton's the odd man out given the number of position players the Cubs are carrying (and since that seems to be an inflexible de facto roster construction rule these days, that's what I'm using as a basis for my opinion as to what to do with Murton), but in an ideal world I'd drop one of the righty relievers and keep Murton.

And much though I'd like to see Murton get playing time someplace, I agree with this.

OK, but there's a happy medium between "Random 21-year-old A ball pitcher" and the "top prospect or two" from the article mentioned in post 6. And I don't know that a quality reliever like Feliciano is, for Cubs fans, on the happy side of it.

Murton is a pretty limited player, as discussed here. I'd take him on the Phils in a heartbeat, because he'd fit very well there -- they already get good power from 2B and SS (and beyond good 1B power from 1B), most of their good hitters are lefties, he'd make a nice platoon with Jenkins this year, and he'd end up being a cheap replacement for Burrell who, for all his hitting skill, is even more limited than Murton. Next year he's out of options, everyone knows that, you've got Soriano and Fukudome in the corners, and, as clearly evidenced this spring, his limitations make him a poor bench player, especially in the world of 12 pitcher rosters. The minor league arm or two you get for him now might be the most you get out of him ever, barring a Soriano injury this year.

And I don't know that a quality reliever like Feliciano is, for Cubs fans, on the happy side of it.

Feliciano fills a need, and the Cubs aren't exactly in a position to demand a huge return for Murton. You got any better ideas?

So let's see we're up to (off the top of my head)...

C -- Salty
2B -- Gotay?
3B -- Longoria
LF -- Murton
RF -- Bruce

Josh Fields was sent down as well, if you need a DH.

Josh Fields was sent down as well, if you need a DH.

So the idea is to hope Crede gets off to a good start and pumps up his trade value, I guess?

the Cubs aren't exactly in a position to demand a huge return for Murton. You got any better ideas?

Maybe they could get one of those guitars that are, like, two guitars?

I disagree, both in terms of your assessment of Pie (there's no way he should be limited to half the starts against righties) and in terms of Crisp being a suitable insurance policy. He's really not a very good CF.

Is this where I'm supposed to make some snarky, personal comeback and challenge you to a dual? I'm not going to do it, not this time anyway.

In all truth, I find myself more excited by the Rays lately anyway, not that I'm pessimistic about the Cubs chances in the NL Central.

Omar needs to move on this. He's better than Pagan.

I don't know that it's true. My impression is that Pagan is a much better fielder and the Mets have a lot of fly ball pitchers.

I also think the Mets are in no position to trade Feliciano, who might be the third-best reliever in a pen with a lot of questions.

So the idea is to hope Crede gets off to a good start and pumps up his trade value, I guess?

I think the team doesn't want to admit they made a mistake by tendering Crede at all, and they don't want to pay another team to take him off their hands. They've got to realise that his contract and injury situation means that he's not bringing back anything in return, no matter what he does in April and May.

I'm not sure if we can count Rasmus, nobody seems too upset by him. I'm tempted to slot Votto in at 1B just for being buried, but his still on the team, right and let's see how good a "why are these guys sent down team" we can put together before cheating.

There's also been a few surprises in outright releases this spring. Aaron Fultz, Tim Byrdak, Rudy Seanez, Claudio Vargas were all pretty decent last year and were let go this spring. John Patterson might also fit that category, although he was hurt.

I'll stick by my original proposal: Murton to the Mets for Feliciano, straight up. Mets get their righty-hitting LF, Cubs get the strong lefty bullpen arm they need.

This is ludicrous. Feliciano might be the best reliever on the team this year, and the Mets should deal him for organizational depth of the Cubs?

Is this where I'm supposed to make some snarky, personal comeback and challenge you to a dual?

Uh, no; I'm just disagreeing with you. Nothing personal. Chill out.

This is ludicrous. Feliciano might be the best reliever on the team this year, and the Mets should deal him for organizational depth of the Cubs?

To become the Mets starting left fielder. Just because the Cubs are a world class organization who have backups who could start for most teams doesn't mean you should shun Murton as "organizational depth".

I also think the Mets are in no position to trade Feliciano, who might be the third-best reliever in a pen with a lot of questions.

Thank you for your snark-free response. Point taken. (I was throwing out possibilities [HowardMegdal...]. You're the one who asked what the Cubs would need from the Mets, and who noted what a great fit Murton would be on the Mets. Pardon me for not being as familiar as you are with the state of the Met bullpen. And I haven't seen anyone else actually proposing anything concrete.)

If the Cubs can't get either (a) a good prospect or (b) someone who helps the major league team this year, I think they're better off keeping Murton in Iowa as insurance against inevitable nicks and cuts. Sucks for him, but so it goes.

Uh, no; I'm just disagreeing with you. Nothing personal. Chill out.

I was/am chilling; just making a lame attempt at humor, observing that when two people disagree, the next logical step is usually 20 paces at dawn.

In all truth, I find myself more excited by the Rays lately anyway

Yeah, well, enjoy 'em. I'm taking advantage of the rare occasions I have to be excited by the Cubs. Sure, they're flawed, but so's everyone else in the NL. (Besides, the Indians are full of question marks.)

I don't disagree with you. I like the Cubs chances; I'm just more excited that the Rays had a great offseason and may actually be putting something interesting together.

Does anybody know if Murton has a reputation of being lazy, or a jackass, or something?

He was quite the fan favorite at Georgia Tech. Since college fans often know the players personally, at least much more so than big league fans, that seems like reasonable evidence to the contrary.

You'd think Oakland would have some interest in Murton, considering they're starting Emil Brown, for now, and you have to wonder if Cust will repeat 2007.

Not really, no. As Shooty alluded to, if the A's really want to make an attempt at the AL West, there is a much better alternative out there, who will not cost any picks.

If not, why give up a semi decent prospect for Murton? Cust is very unlikely to repeat 2007, but his minor league record is till fairly significantly better than Murton's. He's much more likely to turn out to be a better hitter. Yes, Cust is a DH.

But the A's have a whole bunch of decent corner outfield prospects in the system. It's pointless for them to trade a decent pitching prospect for someone who's only value is being average in LF, and who appears to have platoon issues against RHPs. They don't need another Bobby Kielty.

"You'd think that the Indians would be all over him with the "production" they've been getting from the OF corners."

Murton for Marte?

Thank you for your snark-free response. Point taken. (I was throwing out possibilities [HowardMegdal...]. You're the one who asked what the Cubs would need from the Mets, and who noted what a great fit Murton would be on the Mets. Pardon me for not being as familiar as you are with the state of the Met bullpen. And I haven't seen anyone else actually proposing anything concrete.)

I accept your apology.

In all seriousness, I think people severly underrate Feliciano- no one more so than his manager.

Murton also wouldn't be starting LF- he'd be placeholder for Alou. But if his arm is really so bad that you can't platoon him with Church in RF, that certainly changes his value to the Mets.

How about to Seattle, to DH instead of Vidro? The AL West might be open after all thanks to injuries...

I think an even bigger problem is that Murton is so nice. Honestly, I know I'm opening myself up to be ripped here. But he always says the right thing, smiles, and is charming. This serves you well as a boy scout. But if you are impossible to replace in the job you have, why promote...? Sure his arm isn't great, and yeas he likely tops out at 25 homers in a dream season, but Murton could really help a team out. He'd get on base at a good clip and hit double. The Indians, in fact, would seem to benefit quite a bit from this kind of production. It's what they were hoping to get from Trot...

How about to Seattle, to DH instead of Vidro?

How about to Seattle to play LF instead of Ibanez and have Ibanez DH instead of Vidro? Of course, the "filling two needs with one trade" bank shot is not a move the Bavasi front office is famous for.

I'm just more excited that the Rays had a great offseason and may actually be putting something interesting together.

They do seem to be finally moving in the right direction. For one thing, they appear to have a major league-quality pitching staff (rotation, at least) for the first time in their history.

He was quite the fan favorite at Georgia Tech. Since college fans often know the players personally, at least much more so than big league fans, that seems like reasonable evidence to the contrary.

I've never heard anything negative said about Murton's work habits or ability to get along with his teammates. For what it's worth, I saw a panel discussion he was on at the Cub Convention a couple years ago, and he seemed like a sharp guy with a good sense of humor.

In all seriousness, I think people severly underrate Feliciano- no one more so than his manager.

Well, then--perhaps that sets up a trade, if the Mets underrate him...

But if his arm is really so bad that you can't platoon him with Church in RF, that certainly changes his value to the Mets.

Murton's arm isn't GOOD, and is less than what you'd ideally want from your right fielder, but it's badness tends to be overstated. I don't think he'd kill you as the righty half of a RF platoon; I suspect he'd be fine in that role, in fact. His arm isn't Soriano's, but it isn't Juan Pierre's, either.

Murton for Marte?

That wouldn't be too bad.

This is ludicrous. Feliciano might be the best reliever on the team this year, and the Mets should deal him for organizational depth of the Cubs?

That's about as bad as Heilman-for-Thames. I like Murton and I think the Mets desperately need another credible outfielder with Alou being Alou (I simply do not believe in Pagan), but Feliciano is too valuable.

Really, the Mets seem like they're a bench upgrade and an effective Duaner Sanchez away from being a very, very solid team top-to-bottom... maybe it's a result of a spring filled with nothing but focusing on the injuries and such, but the Mets feel very thin to me right now. Just don't know where they're going to get that credible third-and-a-half outfielder-slash-backup first baseman.

Look, Murton's chance came during the Cubs infamous "Season of Pain" in 2006. He played ok but what is overlooked is that Murton tanked at the same time as the Cubs swooned in May/June. MM's power evaporated and he eventually got benched. By the time his offense recovered Dusty was on his death march and the season was lost.

It's not fair but I would wager dollars to donuts that in some parts of Cubs Central he's deemed a "Jonah".

Crazy? Um, know any superstitious folks in baseball? Only about ALL OF THEM.......

What would the Cubs do with Andy Marte? Aren't both Ramirez and Lee under contract for a few more years?

Really, the Mets seem like they're a bench upgrade and an effective Duaner Sanchez away from being a very, very solid team top-to-bottom... maybe it's a result of a spring filled with nothing but focusing on the injuries and such, but the Mets feel very thin to me right now. Just don't know where they're going to get that credible third-and-a-half outfielder-slash-backup first baseman.

I think guys like Easley, Chavez, and Anderson are fine bench players.

I'm not sure how I feel about Tatis being kept on the 25-man at the possible risk of Gotay being snagged on waivers, although I think they're considering him a 3B/OF bench player. If he can play a passable 1B as well I think the Mets would be better off dumping Saenz and keeping Gotay and Tatis.

Randolph has said he's definitely using a true 5-man rotation to start the season, so I hope the Mets will carry only 11 pitchers: Santana, Pedro, Maine, Perez, ????, Sosa, Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, Schoenweis, Wise. That leaves 6 spots on the bench. Castro is a lock. Chavez and Easley and Anderson are locks. I think Tatis/Gotay would probably be the best of the remaining options. When Alou comes back you send down Tatis or Gotay or Pagan.

I think Pagan is a really nice 5th OF/pinch-hitter/pinch-runner and he's my probably my favorite of the three, and I think the Mets could really use another bench bat capable of playing a decent CF knowing Beltran is no iron-man.

Semi-unrelated... apparently Register has cleared waivers and the Mets are trying to work out a trade with the Rox...

I think guys like Easley, Chavez, and Anderson are fine bench players.

I like them too... I just think Pagan and Chavez are both fifth outfielders with slightly different skill sets once all is said and done. I think they're going to need to find somebody better at some point.

The Cubs have spent quite a few years emphasizing on pitching in the draft; the upshot of this (outside of bona fide prospects like Gallagher, Veal and Samardzija) is the large surplus of live arms in the farm system. Nothing spectacular, but if you're simply looking for a LOOGY or middle reliever type, you can do a better job finding someone in the farm system than you can in making a trade or a free agent signing.

Semi-unrelated... apparently Register has cleared waivers and the Mets are trying to work out a trade with the Rox...

Is Register worth anything of substance? Didn't he come from Colorado in the first place?

I like them too... I just think Pagan and Chavez are both fifth outfielders with slightly different skill sets once all is said and done. I think they're going to need to find somebody better at some point.

I think Chavez is a solid 4th OF. If he's as good as 2006, he's starter-quality with that defense. If he can put up an 85ish OPS+, that's a fine backup CF. Superficially, they are similar, but I think Pagan has a lot more power and he's still young enough to have a peak worth something.

The Mets will be hard-pressed to find a player out there that is better than either of them as all-around players without giving up more than the marginal upgrade is worth, unless they're willing to sign someone like Bonds or Lofton, and there are 29 other teams that haven't gone after either of them. Obviously age and potential make a huge difference, but for 2008 alone, how much better is Melky Cabrera than either of them?

I think Chavez is a solid 4th OF. If he's as good as 2006, he's starter-quality with that defense. If he can put up an 85ish OPS+, that's a fine backup CF. Superficially, they are similar, but I think Pagan has a lot more power and he's still young enough to have a peak worth something.

I agree with you on Endy, Pagan? eh...18 homers in 2482 minor league at bats, 2 non-Wrigley homers in 157 MLB at bats (non-Wrigley)
Endy- 9 homers in 2027 minor league at bats, 16 in 1806 Major league at bats,
I think any power advantage Pagan has is negligible-
Endy was significantly better at getting on base in the minors, and over the past 2 years in the majors, plus Endy is better fielder

People keep asking the question "why do teams continue to carry 12 pitchers?"

The way that the game has evolved, teams have found it to their advantage to do two things: (1) use their best relievers for shorter outings, so that they can use them every time they get into a close game even if their outings bunch up, and (2) reserve lesser pitchers who do almost nothing but eat up low-leverage innings, so that they don't have to use a better pitcher in a low-leverage situation.

You can't do #1 without doing #2. And it is hard to do both effectively without at least a six-man bullpen. The reason appears to be fairly simple: Low-leverage innings occur about three times more often than do high-leverage innings, so you need to have more pitchers to cover the low-leverage innings.

While mean leverage is around 1.0 (it comes out to something like 0.98/PA for the Retrosheet time period), the distribution of leverage is skewed low; almost 2/3 of PA occur in situations where leverage is less than 1.0, and only about 1/9 of PA occur in situations where the LI is 2.0 or greater. The median leverage for a PA is around 0.75. I haven't yet checked start-of-appearance PA for relievers; I have a little more work to do with the data before I do that.

-- MWE

It has been a wild ride for Fontenot since Alfonso Soriano mistook him for the batboy in the visitors' clubhouse last May at Shea Stadium.

I wonder why I haven't heard this story before.

The Cubs have spent quite a few years emphasizing on pitching in the draft; the upshot of this (outside of bona fide prospects like Gallagher, Veal and Samardzija) is the large surplus of live arms in the farm system. Nothing spectacular, but if you're simply looking for a LOOGY or middle reliever type, you can do a better job finding someone in the farm system than you can in making a trade or a free agent signing.

I agree with this. Murton is worth more to the Cubs as insurance than as trade bait for Marte or any other LOOGY. Who knows, Marshall might excel in that role. Pignatello had a great spring. And almost all of the Cubs RHP in the pen can pitch against lefties too.

What would the Cubs do with Andy Marte? Aren't both Ramirez and Lee under contract for a few more years?

Not sure if that was tongue-in-cheek or not, but I believe Vlad meant Damaso Marte (filling the Cubs' need for a lefty reliever).

Not sure if that was tongue-in-cheek or not, but I believe Vlad meant Damaso Marte (filling the Cubs' need for a lefty reliever).


If that's true, then I don't see why he quoted a post about the Indians' OF situation before replying.

If they both got a clean shot, would he be better or worse than Matt Diaz?

Angel Pagan is like a poor man's Henry Cotto.

Matt Murton is Luis Gonzalez pre-juice.

Jose Feliciano is no Julio Iglesias.

...any other players you'd like me to reasonably approximate?

[edit: and yeah, I know it's Pedro.]

Jose Feliciano is no Julio Iglesias.

You say that like it's a bad thing.

I think Chavez is a solid 4th OF. If he's as good as 2006, he's starter-quality with that defense.

That's the thing - I don't think he's as good as 2006.

Well, my ratings system does tend to overweight "collaborations with Willie Nelson", or the cWN factor.

The way that the game has evolved, teams have found it to their advantage to do two things: (1) use their best relievers for shorter outings, so that they can use them every time they get into a close game even if their outings bunch up, and (2) reserve lesser pitchers who do almost nothing but eat up low-leverage innings, so that they don't have to use a better pitcher in a low-leverage situation.

You can't do #1 without doing #2. And it is hard to do both effectively without at least a six-man bullpen. The reason appears to be fairly simple: Low-leverage innings occur about three times more often than do high-leverage innings, so you need to have more pitchers to cover the low-leverage innings.

I would agree with this, and clarify it a step further by arguing that the universality of the 12 and 13 man bullpen really wasn't a result of the restriction of the relief ace to one inning or less per outing. Rather, it's happened for three reasons:

1. Starting pitchers pitch less and less into games, creating many more low-leverage innings for the bullpen to absorb than there used to be; the five-man rotation (or five and a half, as most modern teams use) contributes to this (by having 32 games a year started by an inferior pitcher, compared to who's starting them under a four man rotation).

2. Teams are figuring out that most any reliever is more effective over 1 inning than over 2 or 3, and so over the last ten years the medium and low leverage relievers are also being increasingly restricted to one inning at a time.

3. And, of course, the LOOGY obsession, which in my opinion has gone way too far. These days every team has a pitcher, or two pitchers, that pitches to no more than one or two batters per outing.

I agree with you on Endy, Pagan? eh...18 homers in 2482 minor league at bats, 2 non-Wrigley homers in 157 MLB at bats (non-Wrigley)
Endy- 9 homers in 2027 minor league at bats, 16 in 1806 Major league at bats,
I think any power advantage Pagan has is negligible-
Endy was significantly better at getting on base in the minors, and over the past 2 years in the majors, plus Endy is better fielder

It's totally unfair to just erase Pagan's Wrigley HR. If you want to discount them, okay, but they did happen.

Last year Pagan had 10 2B, 2 3B, and 4 HR in 161 PA. In Chavez's best power year, he had 22 2B, 5 3B, and 4 HR in 390 PA. Give Pagan the same PA and he's got 24 2B, 5 3B, and 10 HR. Wrigley's nicer than Shea for hitting but not that much nicer. And while Pagan had more minor-league PA than Chavez, he had twice as many HR and a lot more triples. And that's Chavez's best year vs. Pagan's whole career, which really disadvantages a guy who just finished his age 25 season.

I would not be surprised if Pagan outhit Chavez in 2008.

People keep asking the question "why do teams continue to carry 12 pitchers?"

I understand why they do it, but I think their logic is misguided. Teams do it to marginally upgrade their pitching, leaving a bench of total crap secondbasemen. Or maybe just the Cubs do that. In the NL, you need those PHers for the pitchers slot.

"Not sure if that was tongue-in-cheek or not, but I believe Vlad meant Damaso Marte (filling the Cubs' need for a lefty reliever)."

I didn't. I figured that the Cubs would be better off with a backup they might use (i.e. Andy Marte) than with one that they apparently won't.

The Pirates don't have any need for Murton. If we managed to unload Nady and free up a corner, we'd just give it to Pearce instead.

re: #71, #80.

I definitely buy that, but still, 11 pitchers should be enough. If there are that many low-leverage situations, have your other starters throw an inning or two on their throwing days. They're already throwing.

There also comes a point when scratching every marginal advantage from the bullpen starts to hurt the team's ability on the other side of the ball. One position player has a ticky-tack injury, and another one goes down mid-game, and your ability to make any meaningful pinch-hits or carry any sort of platoon is crippled.

It's totally unfair to just erase Pagan's Wrigley HR.

unfair yes, totally? no.
7 homers in 161 ABs that works out to 26 per 600

everywhere else (majors and minors) 20 in 2639 or 4.5 per 600 ABs

(overall: 27 in 2800 PAs or 5.8 per 600 ABs)

Small sample in a small park, Pagan hitting 7 Wrigley homers in 161 ABs over two years does not mean he has 25 homer power (or even 20 or 15)

Overall Endy's rate is 3.8 per 600 ABs

So let's say Pagan has more power, let's say his homer rate is 60% greater than Endy's, at this level the difference is meaningless, 2-3 homers per year.

Last 3 years Pagan's rate (majors + minors) is 10 per 600
Endy is at 5 per 600.

Last 3 years Chavez has hit .286/.324/.394 in the majors (negligible PT in the minors)
Pagan has hit .255/.306/.415 in the majors and .267/.329/.399 in AAA

League average in Shea over the past 3 years has been: .270/.339/.434 in Wrigley- .277/.347/.446

They are close enough that it's quite possible Pagan could out hit Endy, that Pagan really does now have 10-12 HR power, but IMHO Endy still projects better based on past performance, plus he has the better glove.

The Pirates don't have any need for Murton. If we managed to unload Nady and free up a corner, we'd just give it to Pearce instead.

Don't use logic to predict what the Pirates would do, that;'s what you'd hope they woudl do, and you know that if the old regime was still in charge, and they traded Marte for Murton, they'd unload Nady for peanuts, stick Murton in RF, complain about his arm (or lack thereof) and let Pearce PH a few times in between stints to AAA

"they'd unload Nady for peanuts"

No, they wouldn't. Not until five minutes before the deadline, anyway. DL always overplayed his hand, held too long, and then caved at the last minute. Just as regular as clockwork.