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Monday, June 29, 2009

Chicago Tribune:  Perfect time for Cubs to waive bye bye to Carlos Zambrano

As Lou Piniella was saying on Friday, enough’s enough.

Get Carlos Zambrano out of here, even if the Cubs have to give him away. He’s not the guy you want as the ace of a curse-busting team, and at this point, it’s wishful thinking that he’ll ever mature into that guy.

Proving that I did not attend Kellogg, Wharton or even the Acme School of Business, I offer this proposition for Jim Hendry: First thing Monday morning, put Zambrano on waivers. If anyone claims him and the $62.75 million left on his contract, which runs through 2012, immediately trade him for whatever is being offered, from a bag of balls to a 32-year-old minor-leaguer.

Tripon Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:07 AM | 44 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralChi Cubs

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   1. PH  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 12:34 AM (#3236358)
I wonder what God thought when Zambrano saluted him on the way to the dugout following his meltdown.
   2. Russlan wants Pedro to be a Met again  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 12:39 AM (#3236362)
Carlos Beltran for Carlos Zambrano.

Discuss.
   3. El Hombre Triple MVP (Alex)  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 12:40 AM (#3236363)
St. Louis offers Tyler Greene for Carlos Zambrano.
   4. Tripon  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 12:42 AM (#3236364)
Juan Pierre for Carlos Zambrano.
   5. Hugh Jorgan  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 12:45 AM (#3236367)
The Red Sox offer BOTH Penny and Lugo for Zambrano.
   6. Tripon  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 12:49 AM (#3236368)
The Angels offer Justin Spier, and Gary Matthews Jr.
   7. The District Attorney  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 12:49 AM (#3236369)
Let's grant the (untrue IMO) proposition that Zambrano isn't a "true ace"... it'd nonetheless be quite interesting if all teams followed the suggested policy of releasing any pitcher who wouldn't be a topflight ace on a World Series-winning team.

I was going to say that Zambrano should really be Rogers' favorite pitcher, but I now see that Z missed the 190 IP mark by 1.1 IP last season, so that was probably the problem.

Carlos Beltran for Carlos Zambrano.

Discuss.
No.

Scott Kazmir for Carlos Zambrano?
   8. Tripon  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:08 AM (#3236371)
Victor Zambrano for Carlos Zambrano.
   9. Arthur Kade mows my lawn (SUBJ)  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:09 AM (#3236372)
Sportswriters make me hate sports sometimes.
   10. cardsfanboy  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:12 AM (#3236373)
I hate Zambrano, and would love it if my team traded for him in a heartbeat.

Is there anyway Zambrano would pass through waivers, getting past the Nationals?
   11. The Artist  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:13 AM (#3236374)
Barry Zito for Carlos Zambrano.
   12. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth)  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:21 AM (#3236376)
The Pirates will give you Jack Wilson AND Ryan Doumit, but only if you pick up Zambrano's salary in full.
   13. Arthur Kade mows my lawn (SUBJ)  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:24 AM (#3236377)
Let's grant the (untrue IMO) proposition that Zambrano isn't a "true ace"


My completely emotional and unofficial definition of an ace is the guy on the other team where when you face them you say "oh man, X is pitching today; we're going to have to be really lucky to win this one...." Do fans of other teams feel that way about Zambrano games? I'm not really sure I would feel that way.

Starters for which I would trade Z, straight up, for the rest of this season (so we don't have to involve age/contract situation- list compiled from top 100 ERA starters as of MLB.com):

Chad Billingsley
Zack Greinke
Cliff Lee
Derek Lowe
C.C. Sabathia
James Shields
Justin Verlander
Josh Beckett
Mark Buerhle (ugh)
Matt Cain
Dan Haren
Tim Lincecum
Johan Santana
Roy Halladay (when healthy)
Cole Hamels
Jake Peavy

So that's only 16 guys I'd trade Z straight up for. I'd say being a top-20 starter in MLB sure makes you an ace, but I still wonder about that "fear factor". Shrug. Just thinking out loud.
   14. Roy Hobbs of WIFFLE Ball  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:33 AM (#3236382)
I would add Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, and Yovani Gallardo to that list. And probably a couple of others.
   15. AstrosFan  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:34 AM (#3236383)
Is there anyway Zambrano would pass through waivers, getting past the Nationals?


Assuming the article is correct regarding his contract situation then there is about a 100% chance he would pass all the way through waivers not just through the Nats. 62.75 million over 3.5 years equates to 18 million/yr for what I would characterize as an above average pitcher. Now if he was released after passing through waivers I'm sure 29 teams would line up to pay him $400K/yr.
   16. cardsfanboy  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:36 AM (#3236385)
So that's only 16 guys I'd trade Z straight up for. I'd say being a top-20 starter in MLB sure makes you an ace, but I still wonder about that "fear factor". Shrug. Just thinking out loud.

Zambrano doesn't inspire fear factor, he inspires "I want to kill this cocky mofo and hate it when he beats me" which in my opinion is a different version of the same thing, when you consider that he beats you more often than the other way around.

There is almost zero definition of Ace that I can imagine that would knock Zambrano out of the category of ace.
   17. Tripon  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:40 AM (#3236388)
The Yankees will always pick up a pitcher of Zambrano's caliber.

I know Zambrano isn't going to past by the Brewers. They need pitching bad.
   18. Arthur Kade mows my lawn (SUBJ)  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:41 AM (#3236389)
There is almost zero definition of Ace that I can imagine that would knock Zambrano out of the category of ace.


Having a Cardinals fan, a most bitter rival whose team battles Z 3-4 times a season, say that pretty much tells me to shut up and be happy Z's on my team. :-)
   19. Arthur Kade mows my lawn (SUBJ)  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:48 AM (#3236391)
I would add Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, and Yovani Gallardo to that list. And probably a couple of others.


Oswalt? Not this year. Hamels is already on the list. Weaver probably should be. I honestly haven't seen Josh Johnson pitch enough to say one way or the other; he certainly has some great numbers. Same with King Felix. Gallardo? Probably in a couple of years after watching him repeatedly beat on the Cubs. :-)
   20. AstrosFan  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:56 AM (#3236392)
The Yankees will always pick up a pitcher of Zambrano's caliber.

I know Zambrano isn't going to past by the Brewers. They need pitching bad.



Tripon, if for whatever reason Zambrano's contract was voided and he became a FA, would the Brewers sign him to a 3.5 yr deal for $63M? Then no, they wouldn't claim him. FWIW, fangraphs has Zambrano's value at 45.7M over the last 3.5 years. What does a reasonable GM think he will be worth over the next 3.5 years? 40?
   21. cardsfanboy  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:56 AM (#3236393)
well my basic definition of ace boils down to three things, quality, quantity and reliability. Zambrano has that over several of the guys on the lists above. quality is of course era+ or SNWL or whatever metric that you want to use, quantity is hitting over 170 innings and reliability is repeating innings and the same quality multiple seasons. An ace is the guy who when the season starts you are fairly certain he will compete for the Cy Young (not win, but you can see the arguments in August etc)
   22. Tripon  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 02:01 AM (#3236394)

Tripon, if for whatever reason Zambrano's contract was voided and he became a FA, would the Brewers sign him to a 3.5 yr deal for $63M? Then no, they wouldn't claim him.


They would think long and hard at it. Guys of Zambrano's quality don't reach the FA market often, and when they do they cost a butt load of cash. Heck, the Brewers offered C.C. $100 million over 5 years. This is clearly a team willing to spend money on pitching.
   23. AstrosFan  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 02:17 AM (#3236395)
They would think long and hard at it. Guys of Zambrano's quality don't reach the FA market often, and when they do they cost a butt load of cash. Heck, the Brewers offered C.C. $100 million over 5 years. This is clearly a team willing to spend money on pitching.


The Brewers could have had two better pitchers 6 months ago for less and fwiw fangraphs has CC's value at 95.5M over the last 3.5 years
   24. Walks Clog Up the Bases  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 02:35 AM (#3236396)
I've always thought Zambrano had the stuff to be an ace, but the consistency to be more of a really good number two guy in the rotation. When he's on, he's on. But the walks usually prevents him from getting deep into games. He's been prone to big innings.

That said, I think the Cubs' problems don't lie with Zambrano or even most of their rotation (Dempster and Harden could obviously shape up a bit). Their inability to hit with RISP and the baffling physical and mental errors they make virtually each ball game are the factors behind their current position in the standings.
   25. Harold  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 03:03 AM (#3236399)
Proving that I did not attend Kellogg, Wharton or even the Acme School of Business, I offer this proposition for Jim Hendry: First thing Monday morning, put Zambrano on waivers. If anyone claims him and the $62.75 million left on his contract, which runs through 2012, immediately trade him for whatever is being offered, from a bag of balls to a 32-year-old minor-leaguer.

This proposition doesn't just prove that Rogers didn't go to business school, but that he shouldn't even be employed by a newspaper to comment about this stuff, because he's ignorant of waiver rules. There are no revocable waivers at this time of year, meaning that the Cubs would have no trade leverage; if somebody claims Zambrano, that team gets him, without a trade.
   26. ValueArb  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 05:37 AM (#3236404)
Tripon, if for whatever reason Zambrano's contract was voided and he became a FA, would the Brewers sign him to a 3.5 yr deal for $63M? Then no, they wouldn't claim him. FWIW, fangraphs has Zambrano's value at 45.7M over the last 3.5 years. What does a reasonable GM think he will be worth over the next 3.5 years? 40?


Fangraphs numbers are LOL tastic because while they are based on a reasonably methodology, it ignores that different players have different values to different teams, and that teams should and will pay more per year for the same value on a shorter term deal than a longer term deal, because of the reduced risk, esp. pitchers.

Getting a pitcher of Z's caliber on a 3.5 year deal is almost impossible in the free agent market, I suspect he'd be claimed by close to ten teams. His original 5 year $91M contract was probably roughly market value to large market teams. And it was slightly front loaded, so I think getting him for $18M a year for only 3.5 years would have been extremely attractive to large market teams in that economic climate. Not sure how true that is in todays market.

Another area where I could be wrong is health risk. If I understand the waiver process correctly, the claiming team has to take the player "as is", without any medical exam. This gives the claimer a huge informational disadvantage versus the waiver, and the claimer might be afraid the Cubs know something very bad about Z's arm. While most teams can easily recover from the remainder of Z's contract were he to end up hurt, the career of the GM who got publicly snookered by the Cubs would not. So GM's might be highly risk averse in claiming contracts like tthese.
   27. Voros  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 06:26 AM (#3236411)
The Red Sox did this with Manny while I was there (place him on waivers hoping someone would bite), but nobody went for it. They also did it early in the offseason so they could replace him in the Free Agent market (using the large amount of money they would have freed up), an option the still contending Cubs don't currently have.

If you think Zambrano's contract is a bit of a millstone in the current economy, it's a decent idea. But it's at a really dumb time. In any event, even at the right time it isn't likely to work. Any team that wants Zambrano should know that it would simply be easier to trade for him and use prospects to get the Cubs to eat part of Zambrano's contract.
   28. Harveys Wallbangers  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 07:01 AM (#3236421)
Carlos has a career winning percentage over .600 and has had seven consecutive seasons of better than league average ERAs. He strikes out batters at a good clip. Walks a few more than one would like. Even chips in with the bat every so often.

After a dip last year his strikeout rate is up and his hits surrendered rate is down.

Big fella. Good base. Strong. Hates to lose.

Ya'know, he stinks. Dump him. Milwaukee will do what it can to get by with such a "loser"...........
   29. zonk  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 07:30 AM (#3236434)
Zambrano?

Please... I'd happily let Soriano and his contract get scooped up on waivers, though.
   30. Harveys Wallbangers  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 07:38 AM (#3236438)
zonk:

Soriano has had two straight awful months. He hasn't struggled like this in some time.
   31. zonk  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 07:48 AM (#3236443)
And only 4 more years and 120+ million to go of Soriano.

If this team can't get going soon, it's going to be an awful hard team to blow up. I suppose Lee has started hitting and only has a year left on his deal... but the others?

Bradley and Soriano look unmoveable to me. Fukudome, too, most likely. I suppose Harden and Lilly could bring something back without needing to eat a bunch of contract...
   32. Harveys Wallbangers  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 07:55 AM (#3236447)
zonk:

What's d*mning about the rest of the division is that the Cubs have had 1001 things go wrong and the team still is in ok position. A few guys turn things around and another division title is very possible.
   33. Frank Rook  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 08:05 AM (#3236451)
The Brewers could have had two better pitchers 6 months ago for less and fwiw fangraphs has CC's value at 95.5M over the last 3.5 years


This is stated too definitively. Off the top of my head, I can't place the two pitchers you're referring to. I would guess Lowe is one of them, but he didn't want to play in Milwaukee, and I would rather pay the rest of Zambrano's contract than the last year or two of Lowe's.

Who is the other guy, Burnett? He was never an option for the Brewers either. In this fantasy scenario, the reason that the Brewers would take Z is because he would undoubtedly improve their biggest weakness in the majors and in their system, and they have enough young hitting prospects that they could go cheap and young on offense during the rest of Z's contract.
   34. Harveys Wallbangers  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 08:07 AM (#3236452)
If anyone is suggesting Derek Lowe as an opportunity lost for Milwaukee that is an uninformed remark. Lowe specifically stated he wouldn't sign in Milwaukee for ANY amount of money. Period.
   35. Best Regards, Larry Mahnken  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 08:08 AM (#3236453)
Zambrano is probably what Joba Chamberlain will become. Though Joba will probably have a little less crazy.
   36. AROM  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 08:12 AM (#3236456)
I would add Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, and Yovani Gallardo to that list. And probably a couple of others.

I would also add Cole Hamels to that list.

Zambrano is probably what Joba Chamberlain will become. Though Joba will probably have a little less crazy.

Joba's got the crazy. I think Youkilis can attest to that. He'll probably be even crazier when he feels secure and established in the rotation, and has some guaranteed money. Right now he's probably aware that if he goes off the deep end Girardi might give in to the people who still say he should be in the bullpen.
   37. FBI Regional Bureau Chief GORDON COLE!!!  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 08:17 AM (#3236460)
Carlos Beltran for Carlos Zambrano.

Discuss.


No.

Meaning, "no" to the idea, not to the discussion. "No" is my contribution to the discussion. Glad to be part of it.
   38. Harmon "Thread Killer" Microbrew  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 09:32 AM (#3236517)
Starters for which I would trade Z, straight up, for the rest of this season

Roy Halladay (when healthy)


Why's he the only one who gets the proviso? Peavy is out for the rest of the season, effectively, but you'd take him as is?
   39. JoeHova  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 09:47 AM (#3236535)
Getting a pitcher of Z's caliber on a 3.5 year deal is almost impossible in the free agent market, I suspect he'd be claimed by close to ten teams.


This is the key. I think if he was on waivers, almost every contending team would claim him, even if he is overpaid by a couple million per season. That extra few million is worth it when you consider that you wouldn't have to give up talent and that your risk would be mitigated by the short deal. Plus, he's only 28. You have people talking about how Wandy Rodriguez is breaking out and he's 30. There would be GMs who still think Zambrano could improve.
   40. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 09:48 AM (#3236539)
Putting Cole Hamels on the list three times isn't going to make the trade happen.
   41. Tripon  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 12:22 PM (#3236699)
but if you do it 4 times, it might?
   42. Dewey, Local Boy and Soupuss  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 12:27 PM (#3236701)
What's d*mning about the rest of the division is that the Cubs have had 1001 things go wrong and the team still is in ok position. A few guys turn things around and another division title is very possible.

To be fair, the Cubs have had a lot of things go right, as well. People like to focus on the guys who were supposed to produce but haven't, but they've gotten good production from guys like Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpaiur in the interim. They also don't have any weak spots in their rotation. For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, they're only two games below .500.

The Cubs are a really, really deep team, and there's no reason they can't succeed this season.
   43. Ryan Jones  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 12:29 PM (#3236702)
The Cubs are a really, really deep team, and there's no reason they can't succeed this season.


Except for tradition.
   44. DFA SILVA-clap-clap-clapclapclap, DFA SILVA-clap-c  Posted: June 29, 2009 at 10:46 PM (#3237468)
the srating piutching is the one thing you dont #### with right now, its the best its been in awhile let it keep going, fix the offense and all will be well. aram is about to start his rehab. fox and the hoff have done a great job off the bench, but if things were going right they wouldnt really be needed
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