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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, June 29, 2009
As Lou Piniella was saying on Friday, enough’s enough.
Get Carlos Zambrano out of here, even if the Cubs have to give him away. He’s not the guy you want as the ace of a curse-busting team, and at this point, it’s wishful thinking that he’ll ever mature into that guy.
Proving that I did not attend Kellogg, Wharton or even the Acme School of Business, I offer this proposition for Jim Hendry: First thing Monday morning, put Zambrano on waivers. If anyone claims him and the $62.75 million left on his contract, which runs through 2012, immediately trade him for whatever is being offered, from a bag of balls to a 32-year-old minor-leaguer.
Tripon
Posted: June 29, 2009 at 01:07 AM | 44 comment(s)
Related News: General, Chi Cubs
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Discuss.
I was going to say that Zambrano should really be Rogers' favorite pitcher, but I now see that Z missed the 190 IP mark by 1.1 IP last season, so that was probably the problem.
No.
Scott Kazmir for Carlos Zambrano?
Is there anyway Zambrano would pass through waivers, getting past the Nationals?
My completely emotional and unofficial definition of an ace is the guy on the other team where when you face them you say "oh man, X is pitching today; we're going to have to be really lucky to win this one...." Do fans of other teams feel that way about Zambrano games? I'm not really sure I would feel that way.
Starters for which I would trade Z, straight up, for the rest of this season (so we don't have to involve age/contract situation- list compiled from top 100 ERA starters as of MLB.com):
Chad Billingsley
Zack Greinke
Cliff Lee
Derek Lowe
C.C. Sabathia
James Shields
Justin Verlander
Josh Beckett
Mark Buerhle (ugh)
Matt Cain
Dan Haren
Tim Lincecum
Johan Santana
Roy Halladay (when healthy)
Cole Hamels
Jake Peavy
So that's only 16 guys I'd trade Z straight up for. I'd say being a top-20 starter in MLB sure makes you an ace, but I still wonder about that "fear factor". Shrug. Just thinking out loud.
Assuming the article is correct regarding his contract situation then there is about a 100% chance he would pass all the way through waivers not just through the Nats. 62.75 million over 3.5 years equates to 18 million/yr for what I would characterize as an above average pitcher. Now if he was released after passing through waivers I'm sure 29 teams would line up to pay him $400K/yr.
Zambrano doesn't inspire fear factor, he inspires "I want to kill this cocky mofo and hate it when he beats me" which in my opinion is a different version of the same thing, when you consider that he beats you more often than the other way around.
There is almost zero definition of Ace that I can imagine that would knock Zambrano out of the category of ace.
I know Zambrano isn't going to past by the Brewers. They need pitching bad.
Having a Cardinals fan, a most bitter rival whose team battles Z 3-4 times a season, say that pretty much tells me to shut up and be happy Z's on my team. :-)
Oswalt? Not this year. Hamels is already on the list. Weaver probably should be. I honestly haven't seen Josh Johnson pitch enough to say one way or the other; he certainly has some great numbers. Same with King Felix. Gallardo? Probably in a couple of years after watching him repeatedly beat on the Cubs. :-)
Tripon, if for whatever reason Zambrano's contract was voided and he became a FA, would the Brewers sign him to a 3.5 yr deal for $63M? Then no, they wouldn't claim him. FWIW, fangraphs has Zambrano's value at 45.7M over the last 3.5 years. What does a reasonable GM think he will be worth over the next 3.5 years? 40?
Tripon, if for whatever reason Zambrano's contract was voided and he became a FA, would the Brewers sign him to a 3.5 yr deal for $63M? Then no, they wouldn't claim him.
They would think long and hard at it. Guys of Zambrano's quality don't reach the FA market often, and when they do they cost a butt load of cash. Heck, the Brewers offered C.C. $100 million over 5 years. This is clearly a team willing to spend money on pitching.
The Brewers could have had two better pitchers 6 months ago for less and fwiw fangraphs has CC's value at 95.5M over the last 3.5 years
That said, I think the Cubs' problems don't lie with Zambrano or even most of their rotation (Dempster and Harden could obviously shape up a bit). Their inability to hit with RISP and the baffling physical and mental errors they make virtually each ball game are the factors behind their current position in the standings.
This proposition doesn't just prove that Rogers didn't go to business school, but that he shouldn't even be employed by a newspaper to comment about this stuff, because he's ignorant of waiver rules. There are no revocable waivers at this time of year, meaning that the Cubs would have no trade leverage; if somebody claims Zambrano, that team gets him, without a trade.
Fangraphs numbers are LOL tastic because while they are based on a reasonably methodology, it ignores that different players have different values to different teams, and that teams should and will pay more per year for the same value on a shorter term deal than a longer term deal, because of the reduced risk, esp. pitchers.
Getting a pitcher of Z's caliber on a 3.5 year deal is almost impossible in the free agent market, I suspect he'd be claimed by close to ten teams. His original 5 year $91M contract was probably roughly market value to large market teams. And it was slightly front loaded, so I think getting him for $18M a year for only 3.5 years would have been extremely attractive to large market teams in that economic climate. Not sure how true that is in todays market.
Another area where I could be wrong is health risk. If I understand the waiver process correctly, the claiming team has to take the player "as is", without any medical exam. This gives the claimer a huge informational disadvantage versus the waiver, and the claimer might be afraid the Cubs know something very bad about Z's arm. While most teams can easily recover from the remainder of Z's contract were he to end up hurt, the career of the GM who got publicly snookered by the Cubs would not. So GM's might be highly risk averse in claiming contracts like tthese.
If you think Zambrano's contract is a bit of a millstone in the current economy, it's a decent idea. But it's at a really dumb time. In any event, even at the right time it isn't likely to work. Any team that wants Zambrano should know that it would simply be easier to trade for him and use prospects to get the Cubs to eat part of Zambrano's contract.
After a dip last year his strikeout rate is up and his hits surrendered rate is down.
Big fella. Good base. Strong. Hates to lose.
Ya'know, he stinks. Dump him. Milwaukee will do what it can to get by with such a "loser"...........
Please... I'd happily let Soriano and his contract get scooped up on waivers, though.
Soriano has had two straight awful months. He hasn't struggled like this in some time.
If this team can't get going soon, it's going to be an awful hard team to blow up. I suppose Lee has started hitting and only has a year left on his deal... but the others?
Bradley and Soriano look unmoveable to me. Fukudome, too, most likely. I suppose Harden and Lilly could bring something back without needing to eat a bunch of contract...
What's d*mning about the rest of the division is that the Cubs have had 1001 things go wrong and the team still is in ok position. A few guys turn things around and another division title is very possible.
This is stated too definitively. Off the top of my head, I can't place the two pitchers you're referring to. I would guess Lowe is one of them, but he didn't want to play in Milwaukee, and I would rather pay the rest of Zambrano's contract than the last year or two of Lowe's.
Who is the other guy, Burnett? He was never an option for the Brewers either. In this fantasy scenario, the reason that the Brewers would take Z is because he would undoubtedly improve their biggest weakness in the majors and in their system, and they have enough young hitting prospects that they could go cheap and young on offense during the rest of Z's contract.
I would also add Cole Hamels to that list.
Joba's got the crazy. I think Youkilis can attest to that. He'll probably be even crazier when he feels secure and established in the rotation, and has some guaranteed money. Right now he's probably aware that if he goes off the deep end Girardi might give in to the people who still say he should be in the bullpen.
Discuss.
No.
Meaning, "no" to the idea, not to the discussion. "No" is my contribution to the discussion. Glad to be part of it.
Why's he the only one who gets the proviso? Peavy is out for the rest of the season, effectively, but you'd take him as is?
This is the key. I think if he was on waivers, almost every contending team would claim him, even if he is overpaid by a couple million per season. That extra few million is worth it when you consider that you wouldn't have to give up talent and that your risk would be mitigated by the short deal. Plus, he's only 28. You have people talking about how Wandy Rodriguez is breaking out and he's 30. There would be GMs who still think Zambrano could improve.
To be fair, the Cubs have had a lot of things go right, as well. People like to focus on the guys who were supposed to produce but haven't, but they've gotten good production from guys like Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpaiur in the interim. They also don't have any weak spots in their rotation. For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, they're only two games below .500.
The Cubs are a really, really deep team, and there's no reason they can't succeed this season.
Except for tradition.
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