The Cubs are going to send their 2nd-3rd best starter to the minors. Lou Piniella isn't much better than Dusty Baker.

Daily Herald:

The beleaguered Soriano figured prominently in Friday night's Cubs-Cardinals game at Busch Stadium.

He struck out three times and artfully dodged a couple of flyballs hit in his general vicinity.

On the other hand, he drove in 3 runs...
...
[Marshall's possible start] was all news to Hill, who admitted the Cubs lost because of his "inability to throw strikes."

"Nobody said anything to me about that," Hill said of possibly losing his job. "I haven't heard anything about it."
...
The Cubs got a big injury scare in the sixth, when third baseman Aramis Ramirez was hit on the left wrist on a Wainwright pitch. He stayed in the game but later came out for X-rays, which the Cubs said were negative. Ramirez is questionable for this afternoon's game.

The Cubs are going to send their 2nd-3rd best starter to the minors. Lou Piniella isn't much better than Dusty Baker.

In defense of Lou on this one, you have to throw a few strikes in this league. I like Rich Hill's potential as much as anybody, but he's messed up right now. It might not hurt him to take a couple of turns in Iowa. I'm not saying that's what I'd do if I were in charge, but a walk per inning isn't cutting it.

In defense of Lou on this one, you have to throw a few strikes in this league. I like Rich Hill's potential as much as anybody, but he's messed up right now. It might not hurt him to take a couple of turns in Iowa. I'm not saying that's what I'd do if I were in charge, but a walk per inning isn't cutting it.

Here's the question. Let's say it's the middle of August, and a pitcher has (so far) an ERA right around four, and for a few starts in a row, about 20 innings or so, starts walking a lot of batters. What do you do? Do you demote him to AAA?

Now answer me this: why is May any different than August? Is it?

Let's say it's the middle of August, and a pitcher has (so far) an ERA right around four, and for a few starts in a row, about 20 innings or so, starts walking a lot of batters. What do you do? Do you demote him to AAA?

Now answer me this: why is May any different than August? Is it?

If he's so mechanically screwed up that there is a good chance every start that the bullpen will be warming up in the first inning, you send him down until you get his mechanics straightened out.

If he's so mechanically screwed up that there is a good chance every start that the bullpen will be warming up in the first inning, you send him down until you get his mechanics straightened out.

Yes, but is this a mechanics problem? What evidence do you have that there's a mechanics problem? And remember: you cannot use a pitchers results to diagnose his mechanics. The only evidence I've seen that there's something wrong with Hill is in his results - and you absolutely cannot judge a starting pitcher on his results in twenty innings pitched.

Again - if you have any evidence of a mechanics problem, I'll be more than... well, I won't be happy, but I'll conceed the point. But you can't diagnose his mechanics based upon his performance.

At least if they put Marshall in the rotation, they'd finally have their fourth best starting pitcher in there. The good news is that, unlike Matt Murton, if Hill has a dominant start in the minors, they're almost certain to bring him back.

Hill couldn't throw strikes in Spring Training, either, so whatever it is (mental, mechanical - maybe he thinks it's 2003/2004 again), it's been troubling him all year.

He walked 15 in 17.2 innings in ST, as well.

Hill couldn't throw strikes in Spring Training, either, so whatever it is (mental, mechanical - maybe he thinks it's 2003/2004 again), it's been troubling him all year.

He walked 15 in 17.2 innings in ST, as well.

Again - you're giving me a guy's walk rate in, what, 37 innings pitched? Fourty or so innings is not a large enough sample size to determine a player's true-talent walk rate. We'll completely ignore the fact that spring training stats lack predictive value.

We'll completely ignore the fact that spring training stats lack predictive value.

Spring Training or not, if you can't find the strike zone, you can't find the strike zone. It's not the same as a few Arizona-aided home runs, or getting a few hits off some A-ball pitcher in camp.

I'm merely saying the problem - whatever the cause of the issue - extends further back than Opening Day.

Right now, Rich Hill is the left-handed Derrick Turnbow.

I'm not going to try to present myself as an expert on pitching mechanics, but his delivery was inconsistent tonight, his pitching coach has been working with him on his mechanics, various people around the internet who do try to present themselves as experts on pitching mechanics have noticed problems with his landing point and arm action, and in the minors his iffy control was attributed to inconsistent mechanics. I'd say it's pretty likely that his mechanics are behind this.

I'm not going to try to present myself as an expert on pitching mechanics, but his delivery was inconsistent tonight, his pitching coach has been working with him on his mechanics, various people around the internet who do try to present themselves as experts on pitching mechanics have noticed problems with his landing point and arm action, and in the minors his iffy control was attributed to inconsistent mechanics. I'd say it's pretty likely that his mechanics are behind this.

I'd be interested to see what those people are saying - do you have any URLs for them?

That said, my take on what Lou said in the postgame press conference doesn't sound to me like the Cubs have identified a mechanics issue that's causing Hill's problems.

I got it via a small messageboard that I don't overwhelmed with traffic and via simple Googling. And they haven't identified a single mechanics issue to correct, they've been working with him on many of them.

STL Post-Dispatch: Cardinals win a walkoff special

[Isringhausen] now finds himself questioning his signature pitch and wondering aloud about his standing.
...
Isringhausen has taken damage in five of his last eight outings, suffering three blown saves and a loss in the span. The Cardinals continue to insist Isringhausen is not physically handicapped while opponents have reached him for 10 earned runs and 11 hits, including two home runs, in his last 6 2/3 innings.

Isringhausen's third blown save in his last eight outings leaves him with one more fumble than he suffered in 34 chances last season. He left with a 7.11 ERA and is now receiving questions similar to those he heard while pitching with a degenerating hip condition in 2006.

"I know if I'm not pitching well that's what it must be," Isringhausen said dryly. "But that's not it. I'm just not making pitches with (the cut fastball)."

Isringhausen has ridden the cutter for 10 years. The pitch has helped him to 290 career saves. Now he wonders if he needs to ditch a once-trusted friend.

La Russa let slip his concern during a postgame news conference, saying, "I asked if he was all right. He said 'OK.' I don't know."

Yes, but is this a mechanics problem? What evidence do you have that there's a mechanics problem? And remember: you cannot use a pitchers results to diagnose his mechanics.

I disagree with that. When a pitcher with a reasonably good control track record starts walking guys at this rate, even for 20 innings, it's a safe guess his mechanics are out of whack. He threw 27 pitches tonight and only 10 were strikes. We're into Nuke LaLoosh territory there.

FWIW, there were 68 pitchers in 2004-2007 who had a walks per 9 innings of greater than 6 in April, and also pitched in May. Their average collective number of innings pitched in April was 1230 (18 per player). Their average walks per 9 was 6.60. In May, they pitched another 1267 (19 per player) innings. Their walks per inning in May was 3.97. There was only one pitcher with a high walk rate in April who did NOT pitch in May, and, as you can see, the whole group pitched around as many innings in May as they did in April, just like the low walk guys below, so we don't have much, if any, of a selective sample here.

There also were 89 pitchers who had walks per 9 innings of less than 1.5 in April. All of them pitched in May. They pitched 1806 innings in April (20 per player). Their collective average bb/9 was 1.07. In May, they pitched 1864 innings (21 per player) with a walks per 9 innings of 2.47.

The sample size here is not innings, it's pitches. Strikes vs. balls. This is not a case of a high BABIP, or a spate of tater-proneness, or even a slightly elevated walk rate. Hill is throwing a substantial number of pitches out of the zone. Sure, as an intellectual exercise you can look at the numbers and say "it's still technically possible to be random variation", but in practical real life it's better to try and figure out if something is wrong, and if it is, to fix it. And although the Chatterers were ripping Lou for it, I absolutely agree with Lou's quick hook here. He walked the bases loaded, and then he walked in a run. He obviously didn't have any kind of control, and leaving him in there threatened to put the Cubs in a big hole right off the bat.

It's entirely likely that if Hill was left in the rotation, he'll get better. If something is wrong, continually pitching will likely lead to figuring out what that is and fixing it. But the majors is the place for tweaking, not for major fixer-uppers.

And May is different from August for the same reason the eighth and ninth innings are higher leverage than the first and second.

The Cubs are going to send their 2nd-3rd best starter to the minors. Lou Piniella isn't much better than Dusty Baker.

Are you the biggest idiot ever? Your posts are getting more and more ridiculous and are barely worth responding to at this point.

That said, my take on what Lou said in the postgame press conference doesn't sound to me like the Cubs have identified a mechanics issue that's causing Hill's problems.

I can't speak to his mechanics, so I won't even try. He can't throw his curveball for a strike right now. When he can't spot his curve, people sit on his fastball since it's slightly below average. Of course, he wasn't hit hard tonight because he only threw 10 strikes in 27 pitches. Most of those weren't even close.

And May is different from August for the same reason the eighth and ninth innings are higher leverage than the first and second.

Yes and no. If there is something wrong, whether it be mechanical or mental it's a lot easier to fix in May. And luckily for the Cubs, they have the ability to send him to the minors to work through these issues. Like Lou said, he can't keep going out there and getting pulled so early. The bullpen is overworked as is, and in general in underperforming. Unfortunately, the Cubs can't send Howry or Lilly down to work out their problems. And every quote from Lou about Hill still encourages me. He's not coming out and saying he's losing his job, he keeps talking about how they have fix him. Lou knows how good Hill is and that the Cubs need him to be good if they're going to have a chance. Thankfully it's early when he's going through this.

I went back to the game chatters, why was everyone so upset at Z pinch hitting early? I loved that move. Lou isn't going to send him up there in a key PH situation, and he wasn't going to use Weurtz for more than 2 innings no matter what. Maybe he should have put Lieber in right away since he's the long guy, but it's such a minor quibble it's not worth having any real emotion about either way.

as a Cardinal fan I agree with anyone that wants to keep Hill out there, the guy flat out can't pitch, 20 innings, 10 innings it doesn't matter, the guy has zero control.

last night he struck out the leadoff batter on three straight pitches. after that, outside of Pujols, I don't think he threw another strike the rest of the game. It's not mechanics, it's his head, and until he gets that fixed the only thing he is doing is helping out his opponents.

For those that don't know the Cubs have been screwing with Hill's mechanics since pretty much day 1 of ST. He probably had one bad spring training game, and the idiots in charge decided they could mess with him then.

what cfb said. hey, he only pitched an inning last night. lou should bring him on in relief today or tomorrow. sorry, couldn't resist that.

the game was very strange. both clubs kept trying to give it away. tony managed the cards right out of a big inning early on, then soriano goes all manny on defense, then in comes izzy in the ninth. everybody on the chat predicted what was going to happen when soriano came up.

Hill down, Gallagher up. I'm sure Gallagher will rot in the pen next to Marshall while Lieber goes to the rotation

Edit: Bruce Miles just confirmed it on nsbb

And May is different from August for the same reason the eighth and ninth innings are higher leverage than the first and second.

Yes and no. If there is something wrong, whether it be mechanical or mental it's a lot easier to fix in May.

But that was my very point! So, yes?

Again - you're giving me a guy's walk rate in, what, 37 innings pitched? Fourty or so innings is not a large enough sample size to determine a player's true-talent walk rate. We'll completely ignore the fact that spring training stats lack predictive value.

. . .

That said, my take on what Lou said in the postgame press conference doesn't sound to me like the Cubs have identified a mechanics issue that's causing Hill's problems.

Well, why not look at what Piniella and Hill himself said?

While Hill obviously took the decision hard and was emotional while addressing the media, he acknowledged afterwards, “I haven’t been right since the beginning of spring training.”

Hill blamed his problems on his arm angle dropping down consistently “instead of keeping it up over the top with a good downhill plane the way I had it” in late ’06 and ’07. Hill walked 18 batters over 19 2/3 innings in five starts, negating the fact that opposing hitters were batting only .191 against him. Last year he had a 3:1 strikeouts-to-walks ratio (183-63).

“I didn’t expect it,” Piniella said of the control issues. “I was expecting him to come to camp and try to get higher than the fourth spot in the rotation. That’s the type of ability I think he has.

“So it’s very surprising to me. I was never even aware of the fact that this problem of control was in the past, because last year he was the best strike-thrower we had. In fact he didn’t walk a person all last spring.”

General manager Jim Hendry pointed to Hill’s dominance at Iowa after being demoted in ’06 following a shellacking by the White Sox in the game that featured the fight between Michael Barrett and A.J. Pierzynski.

For those that don't know the Cubs have been screwing with Hill's mechanics since pretty much day 1 of ST. He probably had one bad spring training game, and the idiots in charge decided they could mess with him then.

Right, blame the organization and the coaches. The young players are flawless and any time they mess up it's not their fault.

The young players are flawless and any time they mess up it's not their fault.*













*comment only applies to players under Dusty's tutelage.

Well, why not look at what Piniella and Hill himself said?

That wasn't included in the article linked up top - or any other article I could find, for that matter - at the time I wrote any of that.

Excuse me while I go gnaw through a wall now. Thanks.

Right, blame the organization and the coaches. The young players are flawless and any time they mess up it's not their fault.

Just as Colin stated, I didn't see any of the talk from Hill or Piniella earlier.

And what exactly has this organization and its coaches done to deserve the benefit of the doubt. It's not like I'm blaming the organization for Ryan Harvey and Mark Pawelek being massive flameouts. I'm complaining about a guy with a year and a half of #2 starter level pitching, who has been alluded to as being fragile all a sudden losing it when his manager and coaches show no confidence in him.

Hill struggling isn't something that just happened on day one of the season. He was becoming shaky the last two months of last year as well.

Eh? He was pretty good in August and September. His worst 2 months look like May and July.