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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
The good news:
Jerry Owens, who has been placed on waivers and could be sent to Triple-A Charlotte as soon as Wednesday.
And now the bad:
Dewayne Wise pulled away to win the majority of the leadoff and center-field duties
...
This caps a remarkable ascent for Wise, who started the 2008 season at Charlotte and cleared waivers after a brief promotion in late May, only to return three weeks later and give the offense a spark.
Yeah, that .248/.293/.450 line was really a spark.
Jimmy P
Posted: March 31, 2009 at 11:17 AM | 96 comment(s)
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Guillen's not known for being really patient with guys who struggle. If Wise falters, hopefully Getz can lead off, and Anderson can take over playing center every day.
I'm actually not too upset with the way the roster shapes up -
C - AJ Pierzynski
1B - Paul Konerko
2B - Chris Getz
SS - Alexei Ramirez
3B - Josh Fields
LF - Carlos Quentin
CF - DeWayne Wise
RF - Jermaine Dye
DH - Jim Thome
C - Corky Miller
1B/3B - Wilson Betemit
IF - Derek Lillibridge
OF - Brian Anderson
SP - Mark Buehrle
SP - Gavin Floyd
SP - John Danks
SP - Jose Contreras
SP - Bartolo Colon
RP - DJ Carrasco
RP - Clayton Richard
RP - Mike MacDougal
RP - Octavio Dotel
RP - Matt Thornton
RP - Scott Linebrink
RP - Bobby Jenks
That's not an embarrassing roster, I don't think.
Not embarrassing, and, with the volatility of the AL Central, could finish first or last with little surprise.
The tail end of 6/2008. Nvr forget!
I'm angry that everyone knew this was going to be a problem. Unlike 2B, where there were a few solutions in house, there weren't any good solutions here. Instead of fixing this, they did nothing. Now, they're stuck with bad players that Ozzie has the desire to give 4-5 ABs a game to. It's the kind of move the Twins have been doing, like signing Livan or Tony Batista and playing them. In a tightly contested division, these things could be really damaging.
I'm not sure what they could have done differently. Offer more than the Royals did for Coco Crisp? It's not like there are a bunch of good center fielders floating around out there (and please don't bring up Jim Edmonds).
What I would have done is probably just let Brian Anderson start 150 games in center, just to see what happens, but that's just me.
I hate Jim Edmonds. I'm one of the Sox fans who wants nothing to do with him.
I actually wanted Coco. I think he's a decent player, great defensively, and isn't going to kill you at the plate. He's better than any of the players they have for CF. I've been wanting Coco for two years now, right when the Legend of Jacoby started.
What I would have done is probably just let Brian Anderson start 150 games in center, just to see what happens, but that's just me.
I think it's starting to become obvious that Anderson and Ozzie and/or Kenny don't get along. There's just something there that rubs management the wrong way. This quote from Kenny says a lot:
I don't put too much faith in spring training stats, but Anderson's numbers aren't bad. They're better than Wise's, and I know his D is better.
Unless they just get devastated by injuries (and that's not something that usually happens to the White Sox *knocks wood*), the White Sox won't finish last. They're clearly better than the Royals and Tigers.
All right, fair enough. I wouldn't have minded the Sox picking up Crisp, either.
I'm pretty pleased with how things went this off-season (other than trading Swisher, of course, but that horse is pretty dead by now). I wanted Fields and Getz to get long looks this season, and it looks like that will happen. Both of those guys were very impressive this spring.
They'll win somewhere between 75-85 games this year. They might or might not contend in 2009, but they're set up well for 2010 and beyond.
Where are the power bats to replace Thome/Dye/Konerko?
But I guess Flowers will be up sooner than later.
And thats Brent Lillibridge. You just confused him with Derek Lilliquist.
We'll see what Brandon Allen, Dayan Viciedo, and Tyler Flowers can do. Otherwise, if there's one thing we learned this offseason, it's that power bats who can't play defense are a dime a dozen.
Meh. Pierzynski will get 130-140 starts, for better or for worse. It doesn't really matter who the backup catcher is. They were looking for someone who could catch and throw, and Miller fits that job description.
EDIT: The only way we see Flowers this season is if Pierzynski suffers a catastrophic injury.
I'm not so sure about that. Isn't Cabrera a pretty poor fielder, too?
But the ChiSox need two of them to play defense.
The Yankees are a reasonable trade partner. Melky's price should drop now that Gardner appears to be the front runner for the starting job. Cabrera is no superstar but he's a good bet to outplay all their options and, unlike most of the White Sox CF candidates, has non-negligible chances of turning into something better.
Would Lillibridge be an upgrade from Ransom at 3B? Or, are you think minor leaguers?
I read lots of raves about Viciedo this spring.
Where are the power bats to replace Thome/Dye/Konerko?
You never know. Dye may give another few healthy seasons, especially if they move him to DH when Thome leaves.
The Yankees are a reasonable trade partner. Melky's price should drop now that Gardner appears to be the front runner for the starting job
I wouldn't be opposed to this. Right now, just about anything is better than Wise.
Best case scenario?
Konerko (who will still be around next year) moves from 1B to DH. Brandon Allen dominates AAA, and gets a shot at 1B next year. Viciedo moves to left field (a la Carlos Lee) and Carlos Quentin moves to right. The defense still sucks, but the offense isn't significantly downgraded.
Otherwise, they go shopping for veterans on short-term contracts.
This is exactly the type of thinking that bought Yankee fans "everyday" Jose Molina last year.
Reports are mixed. By UZR (Fangraphs): in CF he was poor in 2007, slightly above avg. in 2008. He's been +10ish in the corners, which usually implies a average CF. By RZR (THT) he was average in 2007, above average in 2008 (eyeballing the rankings - not sure how to convert their #'s into runs saved).
He has a very good arm. Opinions are mixed on his route running. Speed is OK.
AJ's durable. The guy has always played.
Name me a team that has a good backup catcher? They just don't exist.
Texas. Cleveland too, but you're right, they are very scarce.
Believe me, that's been an issue for a few years now. Pierzynski is probably the one guy the Sox could least afford to lose to injury. But that's been the way of things - I don't think the Sox can really get a "good" backup catcher, because they're not going to want to sit around doing nothing 6 days a week.
Really? Do we know that for sure? They've got catchers, but no one knows if they are any good.
Texas.
And the Mets, despite what you may think of Castro personally.
Still.
Only if Mauer can come back strong this year. If he can't, they're not going to score runs.
Betemit sucks and Brian Anderson is a defensive replacement only. He can't even beat out DeWayne Wise for a CF role despite being a better fielder. Not what I'd want in a 4th outfielder, I'd rather have someone with enough stick to justify a platoon start once in a while.
I just think that "it's so unlikely that our primary guy gets hurt that we can use Florence Henderson as a backup if we want" is inherently flawed, and may have taken down the Yankees' ability to make the playoffs last year (though I wouldn't argue that it was the only factor).
Anderson will likely start against LHP, and I think he'll be better offensively than people give him credit for. Not a whole lot better than Wise, but not replacement-level, either.
Anyway, the Sox don't need a bat off the bench. Guillen never pinch-hits for his starters.
I won't argue with you about Betemit - I don't get why the Sox traded for him in the first place.
I don't think that teams really have this philosophy; it's just that good-hitting catchers who can field worth a damn are few and far between, and are rarely backups.
The choices this spring were Chris Stewart, Donny Lucy, and Miller. Really, flip a damn coin.
and hitter...
methinks something else is going on, as #7 alluded to.
This is far from a guarantee. Do they even know what's wrong with him? Yes, his back hurts, but why? And what makes it better?
I just think that "it's so unlikely that our primary guy gets hurt that we can use Florence Henderson as a backup if we want" is inherently flawed
The problem is that good catchers are so rare. Finding one is hard enough, if you find two you can get so much value for one of them that trading is way more valuable than playing the second guy 2-3 days a week.
But what are the alternatives? The White Sox had three backup catchers in camp, and none of them were very good. I suspect it's that way for the vast majority of MLB teams - they find the guy the pitchers like working with the best, and go with him.
I think there's a lot more to catching than you're giving them credit for.
I think there's a reason why catchers as a group tend to be poor hitters, relatively speaking. There's a lot more to it than just being a backstop.
> Guillen never pinch-hits for his starters.
Good, I'm hoping to see Fields and Getz up to bat a lot. It is a problem when your 4th outfielder can't outhit your second baseman. The White Sox have 2 corner outfielder and 2 5th outfielders. They also have an overflowing bullpen and no bench bat. Are they planning on keeping Colon and Contreras on strict pitch counts?
You're both right. That having been said, my suspicion is that such little offense at C is expected, so therefore little-offense types become catchers. We saw this with shortstops before, but Cal Ripken and others changed the offensive expectations for the position. For a few years, we had Jeter/Nomar/A-Rod playing that position in the same league, with Omar Vizquel not putting up embarassing numbers.
I think both Fields and Getz will be better hitters than you're implying here.
They also have an overflowing bullpen and no bench bat.
They've carried twelve pitchers for some time now. Carrying eleven pitchers is the exception these days, not the rule.
Is the pitching Brian Anderson even still around any more?
You're right, but that's kinda negated by Castro being better than the notional "starter." I know he breaks down, so I'd favor some kind of time-share in which Castro gets 100-120 starts Schneider the rest. Sadly, while the Mets' management team does have its virtues, creativity is not among them.
Maybe not, but we need to be reminded that Brian N. Anderson has a middle name, and it's "Nikola". Although he's not even the best recent player with the middle name "Nikola".
[Edit: Brian J. Anderson is now the assistant to the Rays pitching coach. He also entered the world of broadcasting last year, filling in for Joe Migraine when the latter was covering the Olympics.]
No, I think that really athletic players don't want to spend all their time crouched behind the plate getting their fingers bruised up with foul tips, wild pitches and the like while having their knees and ankles take abuse from the crouching. I also think managers and coaches at lower levels don't want to take a guy that's capable of playing full time in a defensive demanding position like the infield and making him a part time player. Buster Posey is the exception, not the rule.
Are they planning on keeping Colon and Contreras on strict pitch counts?
I think these two are the definition of guys you don't keep on pitch counts. Use them until they're dead.
It doesn't matter what I think of him personally, I don't think of him as much of a baseball player either.
He's 33 with a career line of .235/.310/.416. Last year he hit .245/.312/.441. He's better than Corky Miller, but let's not make him out to be Jorge Posada backing up Joe Girardi here.
Fields and Getz may be decent hitters (eventually) but they're also inexperienced and the White Sox have nobody around to pinch hit for them. Pierzynski has bad platoon numbers also (and he's a terrible defender) but he'll have to stay in and face the LOOGY because there is nobody to pinch for him either. Perhaps they trade one of those excess bullpen arms to Texas for one of their extra outfielders.
I already noted this in the last Melky thread, but per ZiPS for 2009:
Cabrera: 4.2 RC/27
Wise: 4.2 RC/27
Anderson: 4.1 RC/27
You need to have a very, VERY optimistic estimation of Cabrera's defensive value for him to be a significant upgrade on what Chicago already has (i.e. worth trading something of value to get).
J.R. House isn't in the league any more? I wonder who that fellow with his name on KC's AAA roster is, then.
He's 33 with a career line of .235/.310/.416. Last year he hit .245/.312/.441. He's better than Corky Miller, but let's not make him out to be Jorge Posada backing up Joe Girardi here."
On top of that, he's not a great defender, either.
First of all, relievers nowadays pick up about 500-600 innings a season. Starters as a whole haven't averaged 7 innings per outing in a looong time.
Secondly, yes, Guillen loves to play lefty-righty matchup with his relievers.
Guillen wouldn't pinch-hit for Pierzynski if he had Manny Ramirez on the bench unless the game was absolutely on the line, and maybe not even then. He's old-school that way; the starting catcher almost always finishes the game.
Guillen just doesn't pinch-hit; that's just not his style. Whenever the Sox have carried an extra bat on the bench, he's collected splinters.
That's the usual state of affairs, isn't it?
If that happens they'll negate the advantage of their veteran rotation which is their ability to eat innings. Either that or they'll be stealing innings from their best pitchers to give to lesser pitchers. Neither one is good.
I could see this team staying in contention but if there are a couple injuries they could go into a death spiral in a hurry.
I was thinking the same thing.
They have such a short bench that they can't really pinch run and they don't have any versatility. I think they'll underperform their pythag because the bottom of the bullpen will look good in low leverage situations and the bench will add nothing in high leverage situations.
Actually, I think that's an advantage. First, Ozzie's usually been pretty good at using his bullpen. Second, I totally believe that the fewer moves a manager makes, the better. The Sox don't have many bench options, but they never have with Ozzie, and they've always done pretty well.
True, but this is true for any team in the AL Central. There's no standout here.
No, Betemit is perfectly acceptable as a bench player. Most projection systems have him as a league average bat who isn't much defensively. That'd be a problem if he was a starter but he's not. Furthermore, he'll be protected against having to face left-handers because Fields will be out there everyday against lefties.
They also have an overflowing bullpen
I'm not even sure what the hell this means. Overflowing? That sounds like a good thing. Jenks, Thornton and Dotel are a pretty good top three. Linebrink is overpaid but is fine as a middle reliever. Beyond that they're kind of weak (Richard is an okay swing-man, Carrasco is there for mop-up and MacDougal is a wildcard), but then again, how many bullpens go seven-men (reliably) deep? If the Sox are in it past June you'll also likely see Aaron Poreda step in as a reliever -- he could probably step in and be a decent reliever right now but they want to see if they can 'polish up' his non-fastball pitches.
I'm not trying to paint the Sox as a dominant team but they're not discernibly worse than any of the other teams. The Twins? Their pitching will be very good but have fun with that RISP regression as well as the Mauer injury (not to mention Crede's likelihood of injury by, say, May 15th). The Indians' and Tigers' rotations are both a mess, and KC is going to need at least three or four players to break out (Davies, Butler and Gordon) if they even hope to be playing meaningful baseball in September.
Their bench players are all worse hitters than their starters.
This is another comical critique. Are their teams out there where this isn't true? I'm sure there are exceptions but as a general rule?
One more note -- Lillibridge is likely just a placeholder for Jayson Nix who got hurt in Spring Training. Not that Nix is anything great, either, but at the very least Nix could be a decent platoon option for Chris Getz at second. I don't think Lillibridge, on the other hand, would be a good platoon option for a AAA team much less the Sox.
Isn't this what happens to everyone?
Not when you're talking about a toilet. An abundance of some things is not an asset.
So, the White Sox then.
It's a shame - a couple years ago, I thought he'd be something.
The Sox don't have many bench options, but they never have with Ozzie, and they've always done pretty well.
What was the bench on the playoff roster in 2005? Chris Widger, Willie Harris, Geoff Blum, Timo Perez? Is this bench any different, really?
Really? I see Betemit as a pretty decent sub for Fields when a tough righty is on the hill , as Betemit is a career .800 OPS hitter against righties. He's obviously a brute with the glove Fields ain't much better there.
I think the recency (is that even a word? I thought it was but Firefox is giving me the squiggly red underline) of Betemit's suck doesn't help his case. Compounding it is that he sucked for the Yankees so there was more exposure. I don't know... my expectations aren't terribly high for him but I'd say he's a fine gamble for a bench player. He's still only 27 and he didn't even have 200 at-bats with the Yankees -- regression to a league average bat doesn't seem all that far fetched.
White Sox relievers haven't thrown 500 IP since 2000. Last year was the first time Ozzie got less than 1,000 innings out of his starters. The earlier estimation of 350 IP from Chicago's bullpen was too low, but you're going too high.
The Angels have a guy with a great pedigree available through trade...
You can call him Junior if it makes you feel better...
You can call him Junior if it makes you feel better...
You kid, but these are the alternatives. Guys like Pierre and Matthews.
Grady Sizemore ain't walking through that door, Sox fans.
And .257/.322/.465 over the last 3,
And catchers as a whole hit .255/.324/.389 last year, and .254/.317/.393 in 2007
of course being better than the starter doesn't mean much when you break down as often as Castro...
who are no better than the dreck the Sox already have
of course Pierre keeps his batting average high enough to fool the average mediot and the causal fan...
In terms of OPS, Pierzynski's been slightly better against lefties the past two years.
I'd agree with that, but what is your definition of "health" -- healthy enough to catch anywhere from 120-140 games or healthy enough to hit (i.e. DH)? I'd think the distinction is probably worth a win or two.
You kid, but these are the alternatives. Guys like Pierre and Matthews.
Sadly enough, I think the only things holding back those two from being mentioned more with the Sox is the amount of money they're owed, as both would likely be upgrades -- albeit marginal -- on Wise*. Not that any of this really matters because there's no way either team eats the rest of those contracts.
*Pierre's ~.330 OBP will be at least 30 points higher than any of the current Sox players and GMJ's (projected) ~.720 OPS is also an upgrade. They're all below average defensively -- besides Anderson -- so that's a wash.
I think there is a lot of truth in this. Most guys who make it to AAAA status at 1B or corner OF were really big hitters in their younger days. No one would have risked their hitting by making them a C. But once it's clear they project not to make the bigs on hitting alone why not try them at C?
I'm not saying they'll become Yogi Berra with the glove, but perhaps be on the bad side of acceptable, making them a better bet than the usual backup with a 60 OPS+ (and a defensive rep based largely on their lack of hitting ability.)
Given the uncertainty around C defense, I'd rather have a "bad" defender with a 100 OPS+ on my bench than a "great" defender with a 60 OPS+. Or, if the AAAA can field 1B/LF, you could carry them both.
If he were durable and could catch more than 80 games without breaking down he'd be a starter- evidently he can't.
I think this is something that seems like it would work great in DMB or strat, but not so much in real life. I think in some ways catching is the most demanding defensive position - it's not something you throw a bad defender in just to get his bat in the lineup.
One of the big reasons that C aren't good hitters is there are so few that can bat lefthanded. The platoon advantage will always make catchers look bad relative to league average hitters because the league average is so full of lefthanded batters.
Durability is part of being good, no?
Yeah, that wasn't a good year. I could see that happening here with Wise & Alexei! leading off.
A good thing about Ozzie is that he isn't afraid to change things if they aren't working. If Wise sucks for 3 weeks, he won't be leading off anymore.
The Twins lost the division last season by continuing to use Livian while Liriano was stellar in the minors.
So that settles that then. I don't suppose this feeling could have anything to do with his success as a Cub. Nah.
Yea, anybody can catch. Let's do it. All you AAAA 1B now have major league jobs.
Is there any relevance to this ? It's almost like you're saying that a weak bench is a good thing because they once won with it. Starting pitching won in 2005 and Guillen had the good sense to let them pitch.
I guess I look at this team and I don't see much difference between the team that won the division last season with a Pythag record of 89-74. I took over 77.5 wins in Vegas and am very happy with that bet. I could be wrong, but the Guillen/Williams combo has fielded only one team with a losing record in five seasons, and that team was ravaged by a poor bullpen which should not be a problem this season.
I predict the Sox win 83 games or so and stay in the playoff hunt until mid September.
You know, I think this argument gets overstated quite a bit. Livan got maybe 3 starts after it was clear Liriano was ready. He pitched well and won the first, pitched a not great complete game loss in the second, and got shelled in the third. Meanwhile, the Twins scored a total of three runs before the ninth in those two games. It's possible that with Liriano they win one of those two, but it's by no means certain. You could more fairly say that not starting Liriano in the minors cost the Twins the division.
Now, if you want to say that signing Livan in the first place cost the Twins the division, I can't argue. But it wasn't necessarily keeping Liriano down an extra couple weeks that cost them.
Anyway, there are a couple posters in this thread who just don't seem to have a good grasp of actual performance levels. But I'm (mostly??) just letting them get on with their lives -- I don't think any of my comments below refer to them.
On bullpen innings: The _median_ is around 490-500. And as someone pointed out, the Sox have been very good about getting innings out of their starters mainly because their original 5 have always stayed really healthy -- most teams get something like 35 starts from pitchers outside their intended rotation, I think the Sox have had fewer than that in the last 4 years combined. The Sox are one team that, over the last several years, could have gotten away with a 6-man pen.
Backup Cs: They almost all suck. What you hope to avoid is the Molina-esque OPS+ of 50. But you can't always, so if your Molina ends up starting, you try to fix it through trade and pick up an I-Rod ... who then goes out and give you an OPS+ of 50. Where's Henry Blanco these days?
White Sox CF: I agree in part with the poster who thinks they could/should have addressed this. True, there were no worthy CF on the FA market but the Sox did make two significant trades this offseason in Vazquez and Swisher. I'm not saying it's guaranteed that one of those could have brought back a decent CF but it's not a stretch. Swisher for Crisp might have worked -- not that he's great but probably more useful than Betemit -- and the Red Sox would have had instant Bay/Drew/Youk/Lowell/Ortiz insurance and even a passable Ellsbury policy. Of course, keeping Swisher might have solved the White Sox' CF problem (I know, it wasn't going to happen).
Somebody mentioned short benches? It's the AL with 9 offensive starters and 12-man pitching staffs. Nobody has a long bench. Basically you have a choice between having a real DH or having a "deep" bench and rotating 4th OFs and backup MIs through the DH slot. If you have Thome, you choose the first. Anderson can play all 3 OF spots, Betemit/Lillibridge can cover the IF (not necessarily well but "good" backup SS are about as hard to find as "good" backup C) and I'm sure at least one of them can not embarrass themselves too badly for an emergency game or two in LF/RF.
The Sox will go as far as their starting pitching takes them. Kenny Williams has his faults but he's had an impeccable eye for pitchers, especially durable starters, the last several seasons. Don't bet against them.
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