I am suprised the Padres rank so highly in your predicted finish. As a huge Pads fan, I would be thrilled to see them win 80, I was thinking more like 70-75.

70-75? Are they just going to give up halfway through September?

Ha! Looking at the roster,maybe. I meant 70 to 75 wins. Sorry! That's funny.

Padres finish second... how?

Padres finish second... how?

Lichtman wrote about the Padres at some length in THT; he said that their skills/talent are not nearly as bad as the 63-99 record indicated. I am skeptical as well, but looking at the division/roster, I could see them doing a bit better than expected. I think they should be looking at picking up Orlando Cabrera.

I recall saying, when the NL Central was the "bad division" that I expected somebody to jump up and win 90-93 games. I think that will happen in the NL West as well--I think one or two of the three among Colorado, Arizona and LA will be better than projections and go about 90-72.

I think one or two of the three among Colorado, Arizona and LA will be better than projections and go about 90-72.

Two!? I could see one team getting to 90, with a Pythag outperform of 3-5 games.

I'll have to go back and read that article robinred, thanks for the heads up. I guess just after watching the Padres last year, and seeing them fail to make any significant improvements in the off season, I just don't see how they can meet this projection. Their 4 and 5 starters are questions marks, the bullpen is a question mark, their offense is patchy at best... I just don't see where the runs are going to come from and I don't see how this year's collection of pitchers can keep runs off the board. I'd actually be shocked if they finished with a better record than the Giants, much less second in the division. Guess that's why they play the games though!

Two!? I could see one team getting to 90, with a Pythag outperform of 3-5 games.

This comment seems silly. So you think that best that any team in the division could do is 85-87 wins.

Two!? I could see one team getting to 90, with a Pythag outperform of 3-5 games.

One is more likely, of course, but I would not be tremendously surprised to see LA at 90-72 (if Ramirez signs, as I believe he will) and AZ at 88-74, getting a big year from Upton and a bounce from Young, with Scherzer stepping up and Drew holding his gains.

Losing Francis obviously hurts Colorado, but if they get strong bouncebacks from Helton (unlikely but youneverknow) and Tulowitzki (more likely),some development from Stewart, combined with Taveras' being off the team, I could see their offense improving.

I did a DM season not that long ago (2004 maybe?) where the NL West finished with 83, 82, 81, 80 and 79 wins and I think 4 teams were still alive heading into the last weekend.

As high as three games? Even if I completely nail the true talent level of the teams, one standard deviation, for a 162 game season, is about 6 games. My margin for error is probably closer to 10 games.

So yes, they could finish in any order, but I think the Dodgers have a slightly better chance than the rest of the teams of finishing on top.

I was a bit surprised by the Padres. Still, they won 89 games two years ago, and the three players most responsible for that season (Gonzalez, Peavy, Young) are still on the team.

When you are looking at the Padres season for 2008 keep in mind that they had a MLB record 1244 Player days on the DL. That means that an average of 7.6 players were on the DL any given day.

They used a MLB record 59 players in 2008 as well.

Injuries contributed more to the 63-99 record than the talent of the starters.

If I remember correctly the Padres were projected by Pecota to win 83 games last season and Chone had them at 84 wins.

* NL West
o Los Angeles Dodgers - 85-77
o San Diego Padres - 84-78
o Arizona Diamondbacks - 83-79
o Colorado Rockies - 82-80
o San Francisco Giants - 74-88

The Diamondbacks win the NL West in CHONE. The Rockies take it in Diamond Mind. The Padres are favored in Hardball Times and ZiPS. PECOTA likes Joe Torre’s Dodgers. That about sums it up. This division is all over the place as evidenced by the three games separating first place and fourth place in the averaged standings. The only real certainty is that the post-Bonds Giants are going to suck. For this year, at least.

That was from MLB Scoop - http://www.mlbscoop.com/?p=40

So Chone is saying that they took a slight drop back to 80 wins in terms of talent on the team. That is certainly realistic.

As of today, after the Dodgers sign Orlando Hudson

This hasn't been emphasized in the thread - after signing Orlando Hudson, the difference maker - the Dodgers became the favorites in the NL West. Without the O-Dawg - the Dbacks are third in the predictions. Not a coincidence. 'Nuf said.

This hasn't been emphasized in the thread - after signing Orlando Hudson, the difference maker - the Dodgers became the favorites in the NL West. Without the O-Dawg - the Dbacks are third in the predictions. Not a coincidence. 'Nuf said.

I think Mark Reynolds potentially batting 3rd or 4th is what going to make Arizona finish 3rd in the NL West.

note: I have no idea where Reynolds will ultimately bat. I assume 6th or 7th in the lineup, and wouldn't be surprised if he bats 5th in some games.

So now that the Dodgers have Manny - they should be the clear favorites. The twin towers of DBack doom - O-Dawg and the Dreadlocked one - should make the Dodgers the ones to bet on. Of course, those two are not equal. Hudson is actually valuable defensively, also.

Good job, akrasian. Only two more weeks to go.

Reynolds will most likely bat 7th, with Snyder batting 8th. Nobody knows what crazy lineups BoMel will produce but if I had to guess, it would be something like Lopez, Young, Drew, Jackson, Upton, Tracy, Reynolds, Snyder, pitcher. If the middle of that lineup gets on base enough, Reynolds should be able to maximize the impact of his home runs... and drive everyone crazy when he strikes out with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs. The Dbacks will make or miss the playoffs because of their pitching, but barring injuries I think their offense will be a lot more consistent this year than it was in 2008...