Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Cincinnati Enquirer: Edinson Volquez: Adjusted ERA pace would be best in history

I understand Justin Inaz is now contributing...but Adjusted ERA makes the Enquirer?! Wooo-eeee!

Edinson Volquez is off to a start that has him on pace for an unprecedented season for not only a Reds starting pitcher, but as the greatest by any starting pitcher in major league baseball history.

While his projected 24 wins (based on the six wins he has heading into today’s start against the Cleveland Indians) will fall well short of even Denny McLain’s modern record of 31 set in 1969, his projected ERA of 1.12 would match the modern record set by Bob Gibson in 1968 and he would shatter the single-season record in a little-known but important category: Adjusted ERA (also known as ERA+).

The Web site baseball-reference.com defines Adjusted ERA as a pitcher’s earned-run average that also takes into account the affects of the ballparks he pitches in and how his ERA rates in accordance to the league average (a good measuring stick because it takes into account what are considered pitchers’ years, like 1968, and hitters’ years). An Adjusted ERA of 100 is considered average (the higher the number the better), and according to baseball-reference.com only 503 times have pitchers posted an Adjusted ERA of 149 or higher, many that occurred prior to 1930.

Repoz Posted: May 18, 2008 at 10:23 AM | 21 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsCincinnati

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 1 pages
   1. Boots Day Posted: May 18, 2008 at 11:06 AM (#2784972)
When did Denny McLain's 31 wins become the "modern record"? I don't see how it's any more modern than Lefty Grove's 31 wins in 1931.
   2. Howie Menckel Posted: May 18, 2008 at 11:17 AM (#2784977)
I'm guessing that Volquez comes up just short of the record, as in "several runs per game short of the record."

But call me a cockeyed pessimist, I guess.
   3. DCA Posted: May 18, 2008 at 11:19 AM (#2784978)
Volquez will stay on pace, but he'll get beat by Cliff Lee.
   4. mlbfan303 Posted: May 18, 2008 at 11:38 AM (#2784989)
Just traded Volquez for Magglio Ordonez, good deal?

Volquez has a 90.8 % LOB rate, and a 4.84 BB/9 rate. Even though his BABIP is exactly .300, I don't see how he can sustain his pace. Eventually those walks will hurt him.

However an ERA right below 3.00 is a reasonable projection.
   5. pyrite Posted: May 18, 2008 at 12:40 PM (#2785022)
Volquez (397 ERA+) and Lee (618 ERA+) are facing each other today.

Here's a trivia question that I'd like to know the answer to: when was the last time two ERA qualifiers faced each other this late in a season with a better average ERA+ than Volquez and Lee (507.5)?
   6. There's a chill wind blowing in Misirlou's soul Posted: May 18, 2008 at 12:56 PM (#2785027)
Volquez (397 ERA+) and Lee (618 ERA+) are facing each other today.

Here's a trivia question that I'd like to know the answer to: when was the last time two ERA qualifiers faced each other this late in a season with a better average ERA+ than Volquez and Lee (507.5)?


Well, it's kind of like Hank and Tommy Aaron's combined HR total, but on May 14, 1981, Fernando Valenzuela (ERA+ 1155) faced Bill Gullickson (94) for an average of 624.
   7. Harold Posted: May 18, 2008 at 01:29 PM (#2785041)
Well, it's kind of like Hank and Tommy Aaron's combined HR total, but on May 14, 1981, Fernando Valenzuela (ERA+ 1155) faced Bill Gullickson (94) for an average of 624.

This is nit-picking, but when you combine/average ERA+, it doesn't work linearly, because the denominator of ERA+ is ER (as opposed to innings). The combined ERA+ of Fernando and Gullickson was probably around 200.
   8. Petunia Posted: May 18, 2008 at 03:20 PM (#2785228)
Did anybody else's enthusiasm for this column dim by about 50% upon reaching the affect/effect error, or was that just me?

No pitching duel for the ages today, it's 4-2 Cinci in the 6th. Cleveland only plated 1 run through 5 despite 3 hits and 4 walks given up by Edinson. Mike Aubrey just hit his first career HR.
   9. BurlyBuehrle Posted: May 18, 2008 at 03:53 PM (#2785277)
Did anybody else's enthusiasm for this column dim by about 50% upon reaching the affect/effect error, or was that just me


Yes, but I've always been "that guy" when it comes to grammar.
   10. Darren Posted: May 18, 2008 at 07:45 PM (#2785420)
Mixing up between and among is always the one that sets me off.
   11. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: May 18, 2008 at 07:47 PM (#2785421)
Mixing up between and among is always the one that sets me off.

less and fewer
   12. Robert Machemer Posted: May 18, 2008 at 08:22 PM (#2785447)
lie and lay
   13. Jose Can Jussi Jokinen (Justin T) Posted: May 18, 2008 at 09:05 PM (#2785522)
On a Reds note for a Reds article, Adam Dunn is hitting bombs again.
   14. 1k5v3L Posted: May 18, 2008 at 10:09 PM (#2785722)
lie and lay
My strategy with women.
   15. The Marksist Posted: May 19, 2008 at 09:35 AM (#2786009)
less and fewer


My personal fave. It's so easy to get it right.

My enthusiasm for this column dimmed as soon as I read the headline. The whole piece is built on the "on pace for" falacy.
   16. Lujack Posted: May 19, 2008 at 10:30 AM (#2786048)
George Sherrill: Save Pace Would Be Best in History
   17. Lassus Posted: May 19, 2008 at 10:41 AM (#2786061)
Can't we get back to talking about how amazing Edinson Volquez is? The best pitcher on my fantasy team and I got him off the free agent pile after the draft. Him AND Votto.
   18. Greg Pope Posted: May 19, 2008 at 10:41 AM (#2786062)
Bugs me:

affect/effect
their/there/they're
your/you're
misplaced apostrope (the Smith's)

Does not bug me (possibly because I don't use them right):

less and fewer
lie and lay
between and among

Possibly incorrect, but perfectly acceptable:

could care less (language changes, many idioms don't mean exactly what they say)
singular use of their (it used to be acceptable, it's better than he/she or other mutant variants)
misplaced apostrophe with acronyms (such as CD's, it improves clarity)
   19. gef the talking mongoose Posted: May 19, 2008 at 10:46 AM (#2786068)
Which & that.

Who & whom.

Minuscule & miniscule.

Tons of others. Also, phrases ... & ampersands.
   20. Greg Pope Posted: May 19, 2008 at 11:05 AM (#2786097)
Who & whom

This is another that's so common that the actual correct usage actually sounds wrong. So it doesn't bug me at all.
   21. SoSH U at work Posted: May 19, 2008 at 11:12 AM (#2786103)
Whether or not.

Try and anything, other than try again.
Page 1 of 1 pages

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

<< Back to main

Support BBTF

donate

My Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Vivid Seats is a sports ticket broker, concert ticket broker and theater ticket broker offering the best baseball tickets like Yankees tickets, Cubs tickets, and Red Sox tickets, as well as Police reunion tour tickets and Jersey Boys tickets.

We have baseball tickets, the NFL schedule, college football tickets and Cowboys tickets. We have NBA tickets like Celtics tickets and Lakers tickets. Plus, buy Giants tickets, Patriots tickets and Colts tickets. Also check out our MLB baseball schedule

Buy Cheap MLB Tickets

Concerts Theatre NFL Angels Dodgers MLB Celtics Theater NBA Tickets Venues NHL Lakers Tickets NFL Yankees NHL Phillies NBA Wicked Marlins MLB Concerts Cubs Mets Red Sox Wicked WWE Red Sox Mets Yankees Dodgers

Page rendered in 2.1608 seconds
81 querie(s) executed