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Saturday, September 06, 2008

Cincinnati Enquirer: Erardi: Dickerson’s stats superior in majors

But, but the two-headed Brennamanster said he’s the real deal!

There’s a forecasting system called “Marcel,” which projects players’ big-league numbers based upon their numbers now. Here is Dickerson’s “Marcel” for this season: .287 batting average, .367 on-base percentage, .507 slugging percentage.

That’s impressive.

But “Marcel” doesn’t use minor-league numbers, so one would think that even at his best, Dickerson won’t quite live up to such a forecast.

And consider this name from the Reds’ past: Duane Walker. As a 27-year-old in 1984 - after having had a couple of 225 at-bat seasons - Walker appeared to have a breakout year: .292 batting average, .391 on-base percentage, .528 slugging percentage.

He never again hit above .200 at the big-league level.

So, is Dickerson closer to Walker ... or closer to Marcel? Figuring that one out is why Reds general manager Walt Jocketty gets paid the big bucks.

Repoz Posted: September 06, 2008 at 07:46 AM | 2 comment(s)
  Related News: GeneralSabermetricsProjectionsCincinnati

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   1. Vida Blew Over the Legal Limit Posted: September 06, 2008 at 02:13 PM (#2931177)
Damning with faint praise, but he is a considerable upgrade over Corey Patterson at the plate. Even if Dickerson has a heart attack and falls down dead he'll have a slight edge over Patterson.
   2. Baseballing powerhouse Crispix Attacks Posted: September 06, 2008 at 02:23 PM (#2931186)
The rare Reds prospect not to be monstrously hyped before and upon reaching the majors. I saw him play his first game, after he was surprisingly called up after Adam Dunn was traded. He got a hit and a walk, didn't seem overmatched at all.
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