Comcast: Salfino: A Look at the Phils by the Numbers

From the city that gave us Jim Murgie’s legendary 900 Series...Salfino checks out the hitting zone conditions in Philadelphia.

Chase Utley, 2B
James: .910 (26 homers, 10 steals); PECOTA: .900 (27, 10); ZiPS: .896 (26, 12).

You identify greatness by having such a high and narrow range of projection. I think he’ll steal at least 15 bags; last year’s total dipped only because of time missed due to injury. There is more concern about the dip in power as measured by percentage of fly balls that cleared the wall. His rate of 10.4 percent is now only average and down from about 13 or 14 percent – likely a random variance. Utley hit only eight bombs on the road, but still sported an .886 OPS in those games. The .332 overall average last year was largely a function of great luck on batted balls (not including homers). He converted 36 percent of them into hits last year, about 34 percent in 2006 and 31 percent in 2005. Average is 30 percent. Utley’s range represents a 40-point average swing. Expect him to trade batting average gains for more homers in 2008.

Ryan Howard, 1B
James: 1.068 (53 homers); PECOTA: .957 (44 bombs); ZiPS: 1.028 (50 jacks).

Howard’s homer range is connected directly to his ability to convert fly balls. 2006 likely was a career year because his rate soared to 38 percent. Last year’s 28 percent is still outstanding (almost three times average). I think PECOTA is significantly light here because Howard was the fifth most extreme fly ball hitter in the majors, improving his rate significantly from 2006. The next guy was third most fly ball extreme.