prototypical leadoff man

When did this become an acceptable use of the the word prototypical?

That phrase implies that he is something new and unique, which I do not believe is the author's (or anyone else who uses the word this way) intent.

I can't think of anything the White Sox have that the Yankees need, and the White Sox can afford to give up for Gardner. Unless it's a prospect.

Thornton is the only one that makes any sense, and I'd be surprised to see Chi part with him.

Two teams really want Brett Gardner? To be a full time starter and bat leadoff? Is Cashman a Jedi or something?

Well, he's better than Jerry Owens!

I can't think of anything the White Sox have that the Yankees need, and the White Sox can afford to give up for Gardner.

Agreed. Plus Gardner is especially valuable to the Yankees as a 4th outfielder with good defense who can pinch run. I think the Yankees will indeed shed a spare outfielder this off-season, but it will be Melky Cabrera, not Gardner.

There does seem to be a real subset of baseball types who believe if a player was once on the Yankees he must be some kind of "winner" that can help their team.

Crazy, I know, but I can't think of any other rational explanation.

I can't think of anything the White Sox have that the Yankees need, and the White Sox can afford to give up for Gardner.

Thinking that Brett Gardner is something that ANY team can't afford is pure insanity.

Agreed. Plus Gardner is especially valuable to the Yankees as a 4th outfielder with good defense who can pinch run. I think the Yankees will indeed shed a spare outfielder this off-season, but it will be Melky Cabrera, not Gardner.

Yeah, Melky's a goner.

The defense, bunting, speed off the bench is way more valuable than a 95 OPS+ switch hitter.

The only pinch hitting opportunity (other than the regulars coming off the bench on their off-days) is going to be Granderson vs. a tough lefty RP, abd Cabrera doesn't hit lefties well enough to play that role.

When did this become an acceptable use of the the word prototypical?

That phrase implies that he is something new and unique

Not if he's based on a really old prototype.

Of course, Cabrera is the starting LF as of this writing.

Thinking that Brett Gardner is something that ANY team can't afford is pure insanity.

I'm not saying he's worth a ton, but the Yankees aren't giving him up for free. He's quite valuable to them.

All I'm saying is the guys the Yankees would want are worth too much for Chi to want to give them up for Brett Garnder.

Well, he's better than Jerry Owens!

Don't forget Dewayne Wise, Brian Anderson, Brent Lillibridge, 75-year-old Ken Griffey, Andy Gonzalez, Darin Erstad, Luis Terrero, and Rob Mackowiak. We're still trying to replace the spectacular competence of Aaron Rowand.

If either KC or the Mighty Whities get Gardner, it would provide Joe Mauer with 19 opportunities a year to punk his ass.

Of course, Cabrera is the starting LF as of this writing.

I wouldn't bet on that state of affairs lasting much past January.

Agreed. Plus Gardner is especially valuable to the Yankees as a 4th outfielder with good defense who can pinch run. I think the Yankees will indeed shed a spare outfielder this off-season, but it will be Melky Cabrera, not Gardner.

Yeah, Melky's a goner.

My first-blush intuition assessment tells me that some idiot GM will covet Gardner enough to trade something worthwhile for him and that Melky's goodwill with the team and the fans keeps him there.

I guess a lot of people think the word "prototypical" sounds better than "archetypal", so they say "prototypical" when they mean "archetypal".

Gardner to either KC or Chisox prevents him from being on a team that can spend an entire season punking Joe Mauer's team's ass. Which is unfortunate.

Wouldn't any sensible trading partner with the Yankees rather have Melky than Gardner? Gardner's faster but a year older and a worse hitter. I don't get why anyone would rather have Gardner than Melky.

If Gardner is even close to as good defensively as the numbers suggest, which he may not be given the limited number of games he has played, than he is close to a starting quality CFer. His offense would probably be pretty lousy if he played a full season but he's been pretty valuable since he's come up. Fangraphs says he was better than Ellsbury last year.

[18] Cabrera is in his second arb year, and will make ~$2.5M this coming season. Gardner will be working for the minimum for two more years. That, and speed never slumps. Or something.

My first-blush intuition assessment tells me that some idiot GM will covet Gardner enough to trade something worthwhile for him and that Melky's goodwill with the team and the fans keeps him there.

If someone overpays, sure. It's hard for to to see them filling any of their major needs (LF,DH,decent 4th-6th SP, good setup RP) for Gardner though.

I don't get the sense the Yankees are sentimental about bit players. I think Melky is more tradable (b/c he has a longer track record - I suspect there's still a lot of doubt if Gardner can hit MLB pitching) and less useful to the Yankees.

Wouldn't any sensible trading partner with the Yankees rather have Melky than Gardner? Gardner's faster but a year older and a worse hitter. I don't get why anyone would rather have Gardner than Melky.

As a full-time CF, yes, unless they're Marlin cheap. Gardner probably needs to sit against LHP.

Melky can give you a 95-100 OPS+ with average defense in CF. For $2.5M or so, that's pretty good for a lot of teams.

If the money's a big hurdle, I'm sure the Yankees would throw in $1M, if they like what's coming back.

I can see how Gardner moves ahead of Melky if you add in the defensive difference and the cost. And, yeah, Melky would probably bring more on the trade market. I guess I just have this somewhat irrational belief that Melky will break out with some big seasons during his prime. Since, he's only 25 next year, I think that I'd want to trade for his prime.

I think Melky is more useful to the Yankees, as he can handle RF better than Gardner.

I think it's likely that they'll re-sign Damon, make him the DH and put him in LF when Jorge or A-Rod DHs. When Damon DHs, Melky will play left, or center with Granderson playing left if they decide they don't like Granderson's defense in center.

Let's not forget that the Yankees used their #1 pick in the Rule 5 draft to grab Jamie Hoffman from the Dodgers, who is supposed to be a very good defensive outfielder with some speed. Mr. Cashman may be envisioning him taking the Gardner role for the Yankees as a defensive replacement who can do a bit of running, although Hoffman doesn't have the ridiculous speed of Gardner.

Kenny Williams is retarded.
Just bring back Scott Podsednik.
The White Sox have no money? What the heck was he thinking with Alex Rios? The Blue Jays are really tickled on that deal. Alex Rio's contract is two times worse than Andruw Jones'.

Taking Jamie Hoffmann in the Rule 5 draft suggests that Gardner (or Melky) could be moved. If the Yanks sign Damon or Matsui, there won't be much roster room, so they'd probably only be looking for a prospect with some potential in return. Neither Gardner nor Melky is likely to be a MVP candidate, but they can contribute and may get a bit better with more playing time.

I think it's likely that they'll re-sign Damon, make him the DH and put him in LF when Jorge or A-Rod DHs. When Damon DHs, Melky will play left, or center with Granderson playing left if they decide they don't like Granderson's defense in center.

I really doubt they don't add a LF and a DH. I'm still guessing Holliday and Matsui (or someone similarly cheap).

The cleanest thing would be find someone who has a league average LF or DH, and needs a league avg. CF who's pretty cheap(Melky). Any teams fit that bill?

What about the Padres? They're weak in CF, and have Headley and Venable.

Hoffman doesn't have the ridiculous speed of Gardner

Though Gardner isn't exactly the world's greatest baserunner, despite that speed.

The White Sox have no money? What the heck was he thinking with Alex Rios? The Blue Jays are really tickled on that deal. Alex Rio's contract is two times worse than Andruw Jones'.

I thought Rios was actually worth his contract if you factored in defense?

Gardner's a not-too-bad role player on a team like the Yankees, who often find themselves in late inning tight games where speed is a valuable thing to have. And while I can't put a number on his defense, I've seen him run down fly balls that Mickey Mantle in his prime would have had a tough time catching up to.

But take him away from the Yankees and put him on most any other team, and his value diminishes. Because underneath it all he's a banjo hitter in a position that usually requires (or should require) much more power to break into the lineup. As a full time starter he'd be marginal at best.

If either KC or the Mighty Whities get Gardner, it would provide Joe Mauer with 19 opportunities a year to punk his ass.

I'm not going to sit through the ad to watch that play again. It was really great.

a) I think Gardner should go every single time in that instance. Make the catcher do the spectacular.
b) if Gardner isn't traded, he and Mauer will be able to do that to each other in Spring Training at Steinbrenner Field in 2010.

The cleanest thing would be find someone who has a league average LF or DH, and needs a league avg. CF who's pretty cheap(Melky). Any teams fit that bill?

Wouldn't they get better or at least equal overall value just playing Melky and Granderson? They'd lose some offense but presumably would get better D by having 2 CF'ers out there. Guess it would depend on the specific LF in question.

First and foremost, I don't see the Yankees trading Gardner or Cabrera until and when they sign Damon or Matsui or some other DH/OF type, because if they do so they lose the leverage that they gained from getting Granderson.

And it's been pointed out here and there that the Yankees don't have much OF depth in their upper minors. I think it was on River Ave Blues that one of the authors suggested that the Yankees should throw a bone the Dodgers way to be able to park Hoffman in the minors without having to keep him on the 25 man roster all season long.

If they manage to do this, the chances of trading Gardner and/or Melky increase. If they don't, they either have to keep Hoffman on the 25 man all season long OR lose him, in which case it's probably better to keep Melky and Gardner.

I can't think of anything the White Sox have that the Yankees need, and the White Sox can afford to give up for Gardner.

How about a slightly used Jeff Marquez?

I thought Rios was actually worth his contract if you factored in defense?

Close to it. If Rios can be even average with the bat and be a good defensive center fielder, he'll come close to earning his contract.

Although since Andruw Jones will make the league minimum, or close to it, in 2010, I guess Rios's contract is worse by definition.

Wouldn't they get better or at least equal overall value just playing Melky and Granderson? They'd lose some offense but presumably would get better D by having 2 CF'ers out there. Guess it would depend on the specific LF in question.

Well, you lose a lot of a centerfielder's defensive value in LF (many fewer chances). Converting some of that defensive value into offensive value probably makes sense.

If you were going to go all defense, you'd put Granderson in LF and Gardner in CF. Gardner in the spectacular fielder (really, he flys out there like Andy says), Melky is just average.

First and foremost, I don't see the Yankees trading Gardner or Cabrera until and when they sign Damon or Matsui or some other DH/OF type, because if they do so they lose the leverage that they gained from getting Granderson.

Concur, unless the trade is for a LF or DH.

Though Gardner isn't exactly the world's greatest baserunner, despite that speed.

Perhaps but as a rookie I think he's done a fine job in his role for the Yankees. 39 steals against 6 CS is right at the >85% level you want from your pinch runners and designated speedsters.

Brett Gardner?

A useful player and probably an upgrade on Podsednik, but upgrades on Podsednik isn't really what this team needs.

Looking at the current 13 non-pitchers, it looks like:

Pierzynski - C
Armstrong
Beckham - 2B
Konerko - 1B
Kotsay
Ramirez - SS
Teahen - 3B
Vizquel
Jones
Quentin - LF
Rios - CF/RF
???????????
???????????

So that leaves an outfielder and a DH to fill out the starting lineup (you can maybe switch out Andruw for a backup infielder)

So if Gardner becomes the Center Fielder, that moves Rios to RF and makes the team heavily dependent on getting big offense from the DH spot.

In a hitters park they finished third from the bottom in runs scored. Their best hitter from that team is gone. Their third best hitter from that team is also gone. The former is still a possibility to be re-signed (but is very old and of questionable health) the latter apparently is not.

Adding Yankees Gardner and Matsui doesn't strike me as enough to get it done unless Quentin rebounds to 2008 form and Beckham explodes.

one of the authors suggested that the Yankees should throw a bone the Dodgers way to be able to park Hoffman in the minors without having to keep him on the 25 man roster all season long

Well, that only works if Hoffman clears waivers. IOW, if you believe that nobody else would have taken him in the Rule 5 draft if the Yankees hadn't.

I agree with Larry that Cabrera's ability to play RF is more useful to the Yankees than Gardner's pinch-running and the hope that his SSS defensive numbers aren't a fluke.

When did this become an acceptable use of the the word prototypical?

Back in the mid 80s, I remember watching a national broadcast, and one announcer said, seriously, that the Yankees should get a "prototypical lead off man like Vince Coleman" so they could drop Rickey Henderson in the lineup and take advantage of his power....

I had been reading the Bill James Abstracts for a couple of years by then, so my first thought was, "James is right, these guys are morons"...

Postscript:
A few years later Coleman was a Met, many Met fans were excited (I wasn't)... My reaction was, eh, overrated, but not terrible... later after watching a couple dozen games, I was stunned, it is hard to describe how BAD a baseball player, in virtually every way (except compiling SBs) that Vince Coleman was, just stupendously awful at EVERYTHING, to this day, while acknowledging that he was likely better (less worse) in his STL days, I'm still baffled that seemingly no one noticed before that he was not a baseball player in any meaningful sense of the word- of course it only took a couple of months before the vast majority of Mets fans noticed/realized that he blew...
I've always wanted to ask a mid 80s Cardinals fan, did you guys know he sucked and wondered why he played 150 games a year, or did you just believe what the MSM kept saying?

Pierzynski - C
Armstrong
Beckham - 2B
Konerko - 1B
Kotsay
Ramirez - SS
Teahen - 3B
Vizquel
Jones
Quentin - LF
Rios - CF/RF
???????????
???????????

As it stands right now, Tyler Flowers is the backup catcher. As dumb as it would be to have Flowers catch once a week, they're not going to carry two lefty-batting catchers. (Personally, I still think Pierzynski gets dealt and Flowers gets the starting job, but that's another subject.)

And if the White Sox make no other moves this winter, the last two roster spots go to Jayson Nix and Alejandro de Aza.

and the hope that his SSS defensive numbers aren't a fluke.

I really, really doubt they're a fluke. He may be the fastest player in MLB and he's a good OF.

He gets to balls in the gaps where your only thought was double or triple.

Oh, and on this -

Adding Yankees Gardner and Matsui doesn't strike me as enough to get it done unless Quentin rebounds to 2008 form and Beckham explodes.

The White Sox easily have the best starting pitching in the division (provided it stays healthy, of course), and the Tigers are apparently in rebuilding mode. The Indians and the Royals are still terrible. There's really only two teams with a chance at the division, and the winner might be an 83-win team.

I'm as down on the White Sox as anyone, but they don't need a good offense to win this division.

[42] That doesn't change the fact that we're talking about less than 1,000 innings of defensive data and a player who is already past the age when defensive ability typically peaks. But yeah, he's breathtakingly fast.

[42] That doesn't change the fact that we're talking about less than 1,000 innings of defensive data and a player who is already past the age when defensive ability typically peaks. But yeah, he's breathtakingly fast.

No question, I'm relying on 80% eyes and 20% stats here.

But, with that raw speed, he'd have to be an actively bad OF (bad reads, jumps, etc.) to not be a very good CF.

And if the White Sox make no other moves this winter, the last two roster spots go to Jayson Nix and Alejandro de Aza.

Well that's not going to happen though. They'll come up with _somebody_ at DH on the market and seemed determined to find some sort of reasonable cost CF/leadoff hitter.

They also have tended to fill AJ's backup spot with guys wandering about the waiver wires (sensibly) so we really don't know the catching situation just yet.

It seems to me that if this team really is at budget, than the money they spent on Rios and Teahen really does strike me as quite foolish. The money spent on Kotsay is too much as well, but probably is no big deal. Ditto with Vizquel. You can pile up a little bit of cash by filling these spots with league minimum guys.

The most obvious cost saver at this point would be to move Jenks, but I hear they are talking about getting hold of J.J. Putz so they might be blowing that money anyway.

I'm as down on the White Sox as anyone, but they don't need a good offense to win this division.

Right, and that was true this past season, too. They don't have to be great, but all their additions have been high risk, mid-level upside. Wouldn't it be nice to just go out and get someone that can do something, and not have the season depend on a bunch of "what ifs" and "hopes?" Just get another hitter, or two. I'm tired of all these .280/.320/.410 guys and waiting for the career year.

The most obvious cost saver at this point would be to move Jenks, but I hear they are talking about getting hold of J.J. Putz so they might be blowing that money anyway.

But who wants Jenks? Isn't Putz coming off an injury? I'd have a hard time believing he'd command that much money on a one year make good deal.

Well that's not going to happen though.

Probably not. Like I said, I think Pierzynski gets dealt this winter.

I actually like Jayson Nix, though, and I hope they find a spot for him.

Wouldn't it be nice to just go out and get someone that can do something, and not have the season depend on a bunch of "what ifs" and "hopes?"

I agree, but I think that was what Rios and Peavy were supposed to be.

Looking at the list of available guys, Bay and Holliday are not possibilities (as much as either one of them would be great), and I'm not excited about anyone else. I could see the Sox picking up Jim Thome, although they've been making noise about not having a full-time DH.

But who wants Jenks?

Ed Wade?

As long as the Sox and Yankees are talking about a deal and the Sox need a DH-type, I really do think Juan Miranda is a major-league hitter. The Yankees should trade him somewhere if they aren't going to give him any sort of shot.

I agree, but I think that was what Rios and Peavy were supposed to be.

Isn't Rios the definition of a what if and hope guy?

I don't see how you can rule out the Tigers. Hell, I don't see how you can rule out the Indians. If the Royals would grow a brain you couldn't even rule them out.

The White Sox shouldn't be trying to win the division if somehow maybe they get lucky. They are probably going to be right there with the Tigers for the highest payroll in the division, and we know how much of the Tigers payroll is tied up in useless players (and overpaid ones, but the White Sox have those too). They should be trying to win it with just average luck, and while the White Sox pitching is good, it ain't that good. While they have attractive young options, Freddy Garcia is their fourth starter right now. Putting together an 82 win teams and hoping to get lucky and win a weak division with 89 wins seems like a low target for a team with a 9 figure payroll.

Juan Miranda is the Yankees' primary lefty DH as of this writing. And no, I don't expect that to be true on March 30, 2010.

Why does everyone want the Yankees' random junk, again?

(Yes, "junk" is a harsh way of describing Gardner, but the idea that there is a bidding war for his services is absurd.)

While they have attractive young options, Freddy Garcia is their fourth starter right now. Putting together an 82 win teams and hoping to get lucky and win a weak division with 89 wins seems like a low target for a team with a 9 figure payroll.

Totally agree. Except for the Garcia part. Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, Peavy are the top 4 starters.

Added: The White Sox shouldn't be trying to win the division if somehow maybe they get lucky

Unfortunately, that's how they've been run the last few years. Good pitching, average-to-shitty D, and then hoping that they get career years out of some unproven, old, or mediocre hitters. The White Sox always seem to have the "Drive for 85" plan going.

I enjoyed reading the White Sox site talking about how they like Mark Kotsay's versatility: he can play outfield, first base and DH. Bring able to be a DH really is versatile.

the idea that there is a bidding war for his services is absurd

No more so than the idea that anyone is claiming there is a bidding war for his services. Why shouldn't teams look at swapping their spare parts if their spare parts match up better with other teams' needs?

Freddy Garcia is their fourth starter right now

Freddy Garcia is the fifth starter.

Buehrle
Peavy
Danks
Floyd
Garcia

As much as I'd like to see the White Sox break the bank and spend $120-$130 million on a roster, I'm not holding my breath.

The problem the White Sox have is that their minor-league system has been barren for a long time. While things are starting to turn around, the system hasn't been producing even decent major-league talent. While Kenny Williams has been great at raiding other teams for talent (like Jenks, Quentin, Danks, and Floyd), the Sox have to pay market rate for players to fill out their roster. Aside from Beckham, the White Sox have no pre-arb players who will make an impact on the 2010 team. So even if they don't dramatically overpay and they don't get great players, it doesn't take much to get expensive.

Why does everyone want the Yankees' random junk, again?

Because our random junk is basically 95% of your sainted young star, but comes at 50% of the cost?


Ellsbury: .355/415, somewhere around -9/150 as a CF by UZR
Gardner: .345/.379, somewhere around +7/150 as a CF

I like Gardner. He's a great defender in CF and can probably add 5-10 runs with his speed. Even with no power, if he can walk enough to OBP .350 he's very good.

So far, .325 career, .345 last year, .389 in the minors including .414 his last year of AAA. I think he can do it.

Because our random junk is basically 95% of your sainted young star, but comes at 50% of the cost?


Ellsbury: .355/415, somewhere around -9/150 as a CF by UZR
Gardner: .345/.379, somewhere around +7/150 as a CF

Did anybody bring up Ellsbury? And has there been any articles about teams clamoring to trade for Ellsbury?

And my comment was mainly because this comes on the heels of the Yankees giving up nothing to get Curtis Granderson.

If either KC or the Mighty Whities get Gardner, it would provide Joe Mauer with 19 opportunities a year to punk his ass.

really just 7 additional games, next year the Yanks play the Twins 9 times, and then the inevitable 3 game sweep in the division series...

And my comment was mainly because this comes on the heels of the Yankees giving up nothing to get Curtis Granderson.

They gave up a fair-to-good OF prospect, a pitching prospect with upside, and a pretty useful bullpen arm. That's "nothing"? People really need to stop with the "all Yankee prospects/players are overhyped, therefore they must all secretly be terrible!" line.

And my comment was mainly because this comes on the heels of the Yankees giving up nothing to get Curtis Granderson.

Yeah, because Boston had to pay through the nose for Victor Martinez.

Yeah, because Boston had to pay through the nose for Victor Martinez.

Philly must have given up their ballpark to get Cliff Lee, then

I forgot about Peavy. Well that's not so bad then. They can try Hudson and Torres if Garcia implodes. But if someone else implodes (like Peavy) there's problems.

Looking for a recent AL team who had the pitching to carry that kind of offense. I see the 2000 Red Sox whose picthing was a good bullpen, slightly below average starting pitching plus Pedro at the height of his Pedro-ness. They had a team ERA+ of 120 and a team OPS+ of 90; 85 wins. The 2005 Minnesota Twins had a 119 ERA+ and an 88 OPS+ (a little more weighted to OBP than the White Sox). They too were heavily aided by their ace, but also got that weird year from Silva and gave up a dead ball era 348 walks as a team. They won 83 games scoring 26 more runs than they allowed, third place. Going back a little, the 1993 Red Sox had a 122 ERA+ and a 90 OPS+, 80 wins. The 1988 Milwaukee Brewers had a 92 OPS+ and a 115 ERA+ and won 87 games.

The White Sox had a 112 ERA+ last year and they did it in an odd way (compared to the above) by having a whole bunch of guys be just a little better than that and very few guys be much worse. They might need a Cy Young caliber season from somebody, and although there's depth, there's nobody who looks quite that good (Danks maybe if he develops a little more, Peavy as a longshot, Hudson as a big longshot).

What pisses me off is the Angels gave up a better player than anybody the Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies gave up in Sean Rodriguez. Just for Scott "deer in the headlights" Kazmir. He better be 100% come spring training.

And my comment was mainly because this comes on the heels of the Yankees giving up nothing to get Curtis Granderson.

Well, just remember the last time everyone thought that the Yanks robbed the Jungaleers in a 3-way trade. After all the dust had cleared, the Tigers got Carlos Pena, the A's got a decent year out of Ted Lilly for $335,000, while Yanks eventually wound up with Jeff Weaver and Kevin Brown, getting 3+ mediocre to dreadful seasons for about 35 million bucks. Some robbery.

They can try Hudson and Torres if Garcia implodes. But if someone else implodes (like Peavy) there's problems.

Well, sure, but there aren't many teams based around pitching that can lose two starters and still contend.

I would love it if the White Sox were more like the Red Sox, and added $30-40 million worth of depth. But they aren't. I try to look at what's realistic.

Well, just remember the last time everyone thought that the Yanks robbed the Jungaleers in a 3-way trade. After all the dust had cleared, the Tigers got Carlos Pena, the A's got a decent year out of Ted Lilly for $335,000, while Yanks eventually wound up with Jeff Weaver and Kevin Brown, getting 3+ mediocre to dreadful seasons for about 35 million bucks. Some robbery.

The Tigers also got Jeremy Bonderman in that deal.

I would love it if the White Sox were more like the Red Sox, and added $30-40 million worth of depth. But they aren't. I try to look at what's realistic.

Right. But telling me that Mark Teahan, Andruw Jones, and Mark Kotsay are going to improve the offense isn't realistic either.

I clicked on this thread worried that the Sox had traded for Gardner. I'm relieved this is only speculation.

The team's line about "DH by committee" next year may be their way of concealing a move of Carlos Quentin to the position full-time. Given his fragility, the Harold Baines career path is a real possibility. If that's the case, they need two outfielders to flank Rios.

Well, sure, but there aren't many teams based around pitching that can lose two starters and still contend.

Well sure, but we're not exactly looking at guys where that is just a random thing. We got a guy who within the last six months was floating around the ether with most folks in the know thinking he was done, and another guy whose pitched his whole career in a worse league in the best pitcher's park in the majors who ended the season with two injury concerns.

That's not like the Giants suddenly losing Cain and Lincecum, it's like the Twins not getting what they like from Liriano and Slowey last year. Completely forseeable.

The Sox have zero margin for error with the current lineup, and considerable risk. And that's for the optimal 90 win outcome which might not be enough if Minnesota puts a few things together.

They need to add some hitting, and they've wasted close to $5 million on things they didn't really need. That will buy you somebody who can hit fairly well in the DH role.

And my comment was mainly because this comes on the heels of the Yankees giving up nothing to get Curtis Granderson.

Does anyone think Detroit took less than they could have received from another team? Not likely. The real question for those that think the Yankees paid too little for Granderson, is why other teams didn't offer more?

But telling me that Mark Teahan, Andruw Jones, and Mark Kotsay are going to improve the offense isn't realistic either.

I didn't say they were.

Jones and Kotsay are role-players. The White Sox picked them up because they have no in-house options (there's that pesky barren farm system again) and they're cheap. If both of them are playing every day, that's a problem, but I don't think that's happening.

Teahen is more problematic. I'm not thrilled with either the trade or the re-signing. I don't think it'll cripple the team to have him around, though.

The White Sox really had/have very limited options in terms of improving the offense. They were close to their 2010 budget before they did a single off-season move, so a big expensive bat was never in the cards.

What pisses me off is the Angels gave up a better player than anybody the Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies gave up in Sean Rodriguez. Just for Scott "deer in the headlights" Kazmir

Oh man, I'm going to go watch that lollipop throw to first base again. That was great.

they've wasted close to $5 million on things they didn't really need. That will buy you somebody who can hit fairly well in the DH role.

If the White Sox want Jim Thome, I'm fairly sure they can still get Jim Thome.

What they really need is someone who can play good outfield defense and hit, and guys like that aren't available for $5 million. Like asinwreck said, Carlos Quentin's future is as a DH, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happens in 2010.

The White Sox really had/have very limited options in terms of improving the offense. They were close to their 2010 budget before they did a single off-season move, so a big expensive bat was never in the cards.

Realistically, then, don't expect the results to be too different from last year. They just don't have an offense that can win enough games. It's going to be 2010, they need to score runs. Kenny's unwillingness to acquire better hitters, and Ozzie's unwillingness to get out of the 1960's will prohibit them from doing anything great. No matter how good the pitching is.

Kenny's unwillingness to acquire better hitters, and Ozzie's unwillingness to get out of the 1960's will prohibit them from doing anything great. No matter how good the pitching is.

Oh, I know they're not a tremendous all-around team. I have them pegged for somewhere in the 80-85 win range, assuming that injuries aren't a huge problem.

I'm just not impressed with the rest of the division. 80-85 wins puts you right in the mix for the AL Central title, methinks.

There were more reasonable free agent risks out there than spending close to five million above league minimum for Teahen, Kotsay and Vizquel. The upside for all three of those players is incredibly small, and the team won 79 games last year and lost its best hitter.

I'm sorry but even if you can't pluck guys off the minor league free agent list and have instant All-Stars, you sure as hell can do so and pick up backup outfielders and infielders. Andruw was a decent pickup for the money, but the others were not.

I refuse to give a pass to a team that can't put together a better offense than the Royals on a hundred million dollar payroll. A team that has no use for Brian Myrow but plans to use Kotsay as a first baseman and DH (and they have no DH) gets no sympathy from me.

As it stands right now I expect Kotsay to get 300+ ABs rotated throughout the outfield and first base and (inexplicably) DH. I don't see how it's avoidable.

Looking for a recent AL team who had the pitching to carry that kind of offense.

How about the 2005 White Soc? 124 ERA+, 95 OPS+. Ok, the hitting was better than the current lineup figures, but then the 2005 White Sox won 99 games to lead the league.

There were more reasonable free agent risks out there than spending close to five million above league minimum for Teahen, Kotsay and Vizquel.

Maybe. I'm not defending those particular moves. But really, that's just tinkering around the margins. In a payroll of $100 million, an extra $3-4 million isn't going to bring in an All-Star caliber hitter, which is the only way they're turning the offense around quickly.

Now, if you want to talk about why Paul Konerko and AJ Pierzynski are getting something like $20 million between the two of them, I think then we're getting close to the root of the problem.

Ok, the hitting was better than the current lineup figures

But that's a big thing. This was a 91 OPS+ club last year that has lost its best hitter and its third best hitter. That club, of course had an extreme pythag split and were much better defensively than this one figures to be.

Better hitting, better defense, likely better luck and pitching probably a wash (maybe a slight edge for this bunch). The next year they had a 103 OPS+ (by adding Thome) and won 90 games. They're not a good template.

That's the whole problem: the plan "let's be good enough to win if we get really lucky" is okay enough for the Pirates or Royals, but the White Sox are even with the Tigers in spending and are of course the largest market in the division by a comfortable margin. There's no excuse to be trying to play the same game as the Reds or Padres except that you haven't been good enough at exploiting your built in advantages. They are 240-247 the last three years. The Indians are 242-244 while spending considerably less money. Each has made the playoffs once. The Twins are 254-234 while spending a lot less money. The Tigers are 248-239 while spending on average about 7 million a year more.

You're right that it's not a particularly tough division, but the White Sox are one of the big contributions to that. Both they and the Tigers ought to be a lot better than the Indians and the Twins, and they're not.

But that's a big thing. This was a 91 OPS+ club last year that has lost its best hitter and its third best hitter.

Well, by OPS+, Beckham was their 3rd best hitter. Their top 4 by OPS+ were Thome (122), Konerko, Beckham, and Dye (103). I'll wager that their top 4 this year (probably Beckham, Konerko, Quentin, and someone else) will do better this year.

Alexi Ramirez was 87 this year after a 103 in 2008. I'll bet he does better.

Mark Teahan will essentially replace Chris getz (74) in the lineup. I'll bet he does better

Rios has to be better than the CF dreck the Sox fielded last year.

I think they will have a better offense, possibly much better next year.

I just checked Dan's ZIPS projection for the White Sox, and it more or less bears out my off the cuff analysis above.

Konerko 2009 OPS - 115, ZiPS 2010 - 114
Quentin 99, 114
Beckham 107, 106
Ramirez 87, 101
A.J. 95, 94

Also, there's Rios 102 vs the 60 something the Sox got in CF, and Getz 74 vs Teahan (proj) 95.

So, last year they featured (roughly of course):

122
115
107
103
99 (Quentin and Pods)
95
87
74
~60

So far, with a possible DH to add, they project at:

114
114
106
102
101
95
94
85 (Kotsay)

If they can get better production out of DH than they got out of CF last year, they project to be just as good, maybe a little better.

Who is going to replace Thome's production? And Dye's?

Dan has:

Konerko = 114 - Mauer = 148 - Cabrera = 141
Quentin = 114 - Morneau = 129 - Ordonez = 119
Beckham = 106 - Kubel = 118 - Guillen = 117
Rios = 102 - Cuddyer = 115 - Raburn = 111
Ramirez = 101 - Span = 101 - Inge = 86
Teahen = 96 - Young = 97 - Santiago = 84
Pierzynski = 95 - Hardy = 94 - Sizemore = 83
Kotsay = 88 - Harris = 90 - Avila = 82
Jones = 87 - Morales = 87 - Kelly = 80
Nix = 85 - Tolbert = 77 - Thomas = 78
Flowers = 83 - Punto = 76 - Laird = 72
Gardner** = 81 - Casilla = 73 - Jackson = 70
Vizquel = 66 - Pridie = 70 - Everett = 66

**since he brought up this topic and it's clear they're adding some sort of CF option...

The Twins are clearly the best hitters of the bunch, and it's hard to tell what to make of the Tigers and White Sox offenses as they are shaped so differently. The Tigers, for whatever it's worth, now look excellent defensively. The Twins added Hardy to an otherwise lousy defense. The White Sox are pretty average on that score. With the Tigers front line pitching and their defense, they've got as good a chance at pulling off the score few runs give up less as the White Sox do.

Who is going to replace Thome's production? And Dye's?

Dye was a barely league average hitter last year, probably below for his position, and with his D, definitely a below average player. I mean seriously, a 103 OPS+ from a below average defensive RF? I loved Dye on the White Sox. He'll always be one of my favorites. But at this point, it's a case of addition by subtraction.

They can always get Thome back.

If a team's major concern is replacing the aging, good but no longer great hitter at DH and the league average hitter masquerading as a RF, while upgrading at 2B, CF, and (by regression to the mean) SS, then I wouldn't worry.

Dye was a barely league average hitter last year, probably below for his position, and with his D, definitely a below average player. I mean seriously, a 103 OPS+ from a below average defensive RF?

And he was pretty much useless in 2009 down the stretch, both with the bat and in the field. I like him too, and he did a lot for the Sox during his 5 years on the South Side, but I think he's at the end of the road.

Dye was a barely league average hitter last year,

The problem is those are pretty scarce on the current roster. Another problem is the White Sox have been swapping out on base skills for power which means the OPS+ numbers will have to be a little better just to have as good an offense.

The team's main concern is they haven't improved a 79 win team. Another concern is their best bet for a big hitter has been his team's starter in LF for three years now and has missed 177 games in that span. 16 players got over 100 PAs for the White Sox last year and Guillen loves to use his bench. So I expect guys like Vizquel and Kotsay to get plenty of playing time and do very little with it.

Like I said, the Tigers have a decent shot at at least matching the White Sox in run prevention and have easier problems to fix on an offense generally of the same low caliber (the White Sox don't have Cabrera or Verlander). And they aren't really the main competition at this point.

My point isn't that the team is going to lose 110 games, my point is an 82 win team ain't good enough in this division with this payroll.

The team's main concern is they haven't improved a 79 win team.

Sure they have. Alex Rios and Jake Peavy should be much better than the guys they are replacing. And Mark Teahan is replacing Chris Getz.

I'm just not impressed with the rest of the division. 80-85 wins puts you right in the mix for the AL Central title, methinks.

Drive for 85.

Here's an idea, gun for 90 wins, and don't give any of the other teams a chance. That we are even discussing Cleveland and Detroit competing with the White Sox is pitiful. These are two teams that have lost really good players the last two seasons, and they can keep up with a team that has a higher payroll and is actively trying? #### that.

Added How sad is it that management can't even make moves to get this team to 90 wins in that division? Tampa Bay and Toronto fans should be pissed at that.

Alex Rios and Jake Peavy should be much better than the guys they are replacing. And Mark Teahan is replacing Chris Getz.

One of those three is an improvement. Teahan and Rios have to prove that they are an improvement in more than just the name department.

Here's an idea, gun for 90 wins, and don't give any of the other teams a chance.

Well, barring adding another $20-$30 million onto the payroll, or going back in time and drafting better (and I think both of these are equally likely propositions), I don't see how.

One of those three is an improvement. Teahan and Rios have to prove that they are an improvement in more than just the name department.

Chris Getz hit a 74 OPS+ last year. Mark Teahan is 27 and has never been below 90, and is a career 97. I'll take the over.

The White Sox CF last year were truly awful. Rios can regress severely from his career numbers and still be a massive upgrade.

Teahan and Rios have to prove that they are an improvement in more than just the name department.

I'm not a big fan of Mark Teahen, but Alex Rios won't be a .200/.250/.350 hitter in 2010. He just won't. And unless he's that bad, he'll be better than the assortment of crap the Sox threw out in CF in 2009.

And unless he's that bad, he'll be better than the assortment of crap the Sox threw out in CF in 2009.

It sounds like he's not going to be playing CF, though. So far, I've heard the Sox interested in Crisp and Gardner, and that would mean Rios has to play RF or LF. Which means he's got to outperform Dye, and I'm not sure if he can beat Dye's season last year (and that's a shitty Dye year).

Which means he's got to outperform Dye, and I'm not sure if he can beat Dye's season last year (and that's a shitty Dye year).

He can hit a 90 OPS+ and beat Dye, maybe 85. Dye was truly awful in the field last year.

edit: Dye was a -1.2 WAR last year. I'm confidant Rios can beat that.

Milton Bradley is such a perfect fit that it almost has to happen. Also agree that between getting rid of lots and lots of sub-replacement hitting and a quasi-healthy Quentin the offense doesn't really look that bad; Teahen could well be their worst position player and while I'm not an admirer if he's your worst guy you're okay.

Which means he's got to outperform Dye, and I'm not sure if he can beat Dye's season last year (and that's a shitty Dye year).

I wouldn't be a big fan of Rios playing RF, but he'd be a pretty massive upgrade on defense over Dye, assuming that whoever they get to play center is at least average out there, so he could be at 100 OPS+ or even a bit less and be an upgrade over 2009 Jermaine Dye.