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Friday, December 11, 2009

Cowley: Sox see (Brett) Gardner as leadoff man

I like to retch.

According to a scout familiar with the situation, the White Sox were one of two teams in the American League Central letting the New York Yankees know during the winter meetings this week that they covet outfielder Brett Gardner. The Kansas City Royals also were wondering what it would take to acquire the promising 26-year-old leadoff hitter.

Williams is friendly with Yankees GM Brian Cashman, and they’ve done deals before. He acquired Jose Contreras from the Yankees in 2004, and the Yankees acquired outfielder Nick Swisher last winter.

Williams and Cashman know each other’s farm system up and down, and Williams is all too familiar with the idea that the Yankees’ outfield, especially center field, got crowded with the acquisition of Curtis Granderson in a three-way trade with the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks this week.

What wasn’t known was who had the better package to acquire Gardner.

The winner would gain a left-handed hitter whom many believe could be on the brink of being a special prototypical leadoff man.

Repoz Posted: December 11, 2009 at 02:41 PM | 134 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
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Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2
   101. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: December 11, 2009 at 09:23 PM (#3410416)
I don't see how they couldn't be an improvement.
   102. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: December 11, 2009 at 09:25 PM (#3410419)
Milton Bradley is such a perfect fit that it almost has to happen.

At the very least, Milton Bradley and Ozzie Guillen sharing a clubhouse would provide lots and lots of entertainment.

The only way I could feature this is if the Cubs took Scott Linebrink in return, and sent at least $16 million.
   103. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: December 11, 2009 at 09:26 PM (#3410422)
Incidentally, isn't the same way Williams fooled everyone in 2005?

He had several gaping holes which he filled with non-gaping holes and got to count the ring.
   104. TM in Ann Arbor Posted: December 11, 2009 at 09:29 PM (#3410425)
I don't think Bradley plus a lot of money for Linebrink or even Jenks is unrealistic at all. The Cubs have paid more for worse relievers without the added benefit of getting rid of Satan incarnate. He's a perfect fit on the field and Williams has never shied away from headcases, plus you know he'd get a kick out of making heads explode.
   105. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: December 11, 2009 at 09:33 PM (#3410429)
I wouldn't give up Jenks for Bradley (regardless of the money), unless Bradley came in a package with someone pretty good.

Pierzynski and Bradley would make the 2010 White Sox possibly the most booed team in MLB history.
   106. bhoov Posted: December 11, 2009 at 09:38 PM (#3410432)
I'm surprised that folks on this site think Rios will be anything other than what he's been for his career (around a .770 OPS and good defense). Zips has him at .767, Bill James at .777, fans at .787. That with his defensive projection is a 3 WAR player. I also think Peavy's helath issues are greatly overblown. He had a ankle injury and an elbow bruise secondary to a line drive. He had no upper extremity bone or ligament damage and he came back from those injuries to throw with velocity and command at the end of the year. He has a career ERA+ of 120 (Beckett and Lackey for example are at 117). So no he's not gonna post a low 3 ERA, but he's likely to be one of the top 15 starters in the AL.

For me the big additons are a full year of Peavy (15 IP for Sox) and a full year of the real Alex Rios. Dye actually added negative value last year so him leaving and being replaced by even Brett gardner is a plus (especially while considering defense where the difference may be 2 wins). Replace Thome with Matsui and you've got your 85-90 win AL central champ.
   107. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 11, 2009 at 09:41 PM (#3410433)
For me the big additons are a full year of Peavy (15 IP for Sox) and a full year of the real Alex Rios. Dye actually added negative value last year so him leaving and being replaced by even Brett gardner is a plus (especially while considering defense where the difference may be 2 wins). Replace Thome with Matsui and you've got your 85-90 win AL central champ.

I largely agree with you. But acquiring Gardner and Matsui are far from sure things.

What are you giving the Yankees for Gardner? That's going to weaken the team.
   108. Jimmy P Posted: December 11, 2009 at 09:43 PM (#3410435)
Milton Bradley is such a perfect fit that it almost has to happen.

Then you can do a White Sox murder pool. Who gets killed first, and who does the killing? The options are Milton, Ozzie, and AJ. Go.

I'm surprised that folks on this site think Rios will be anything other than what he's been for his career (around a .770 OPS and good defense).

Right. He's a tease, and a guy that can get a lot of people fired because he always looks like he's this close to a .900 OPS, and then comes across at .750.
   109. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: December 11, 2009 at 09:47 PM (#3410439)
Right. He's a tease, and a guy that can get a lot of people fired because he always looks like he's this close to a .900 OPS, and then comes across at .750.


You don't get it, do you?
   110. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: December 11, 2009 at 09:51 PM (#3410442)
I'd be totally happy with a .750-.800 OPS from Rios.
   111. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 11, 2009 at 09:53 PM (#3410444)
He's a tease, and a guy that can get a lot of people fired because he always looks like he's this close to a .900 OPS, and then comes across at .750.


Which, of course, is a HUGE improvement over the .231/.285/.321, OPS of .606 line put up by centerfielders on the 2009 White Sox.
   112. bhoov Posted: December 11, 2009 at 09:55 PM (#3410445)
What are you giving the Yankees for Gardner? That's going to weaken the team.

I'm assuming, perhaps incorrectly that the Yankees value him as a 4th/5th OF. So I would give them a low level pitcher with good stuff who could be a something one day and another guy (Santos Rodriguez and CJ Retherford?). If not then move on. Coco Crisp if he checks out medically. This team can be a greatly improved defensive team with another + OF (Dye and Quentin were absolutely horrible). If you can't improve with offense then improve with defense. Let Gardner or Crisp be our Guttierez or Nyjer Morgan. This is actually the problem with Podsednik. Despite being a slap-hitting speedster he's not a good defender. You can carry one of those guys if they are gonna be +15 defenders.
   113. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 11, 2009 at 09:59 PM (#3410447)
I'm assuming, perhaps incorrectly that the Yankees value him as a 4th/5th OF. So I would give them a low level pitcher with good stuff who could be a something one day and another guy (Santos Rodriguez and CJ Retherford?).

I don't think that does it. As a 4th OF, Gardner has a lot of value for the Yankees in his baserunning, defense and bunting ability. They'll want something that makes the current team better.
   114. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:06 PM (#3410451)
They'll want something that makes the current team better.

I would be against it, but I could see Ken Williams sending Bobby Jenks to New York for Gardner+ filler.
   115. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:06 PM (#3410452)
They should be trying to win it with just average luck, and while the White Sox pitching is good, it ain't that good.

I'm sorry but I'm calling BS on this. How many teams can boast as good a top four as the White Sox? There's no reason to believe Danks, Buehrle and Peavy won't be in the 110-120 ERA+ range. Then there's Floyd who has thrown ~400 innings of a 115 ERA+ for the Sox yet is, for whatever reason, still looked at as trash. This despite the fact that Floyd's peripherals were vastly improved in 2009 -- he made rather significant strides in his strikeout, walk and homerun rates. Finally there's Garcia who is a perfectly reasonable fifth starter candidate with Hudson behind him.

It sounds like he's not going to be playing CF, though. So far, I've heard the Sox interested in Crisp and Gardner, and that would mean Rios has to play RF or LF. Which means he's got to outperform Dye, and I'm not sure if he can beat Dye's season last year (and that's a shitty Dye year).

No, Rios does not have to move to a corner if they sign Crisp or trade for Gardner. They can stick either of those two in LF and instead of getting a slightly-above-average CF (defensively), they'll have an extremely good defensive LFer (didn't Cameron have a pretty substantial blog entry on this at FanGraphs?). I particularly don't get the aversion to adding Coco Crisp. I also have to echo AROM's sentiments although I'm going to apply them to Crisp. ZiPS and Bill James' system are projecting him to be around a league average hitter. I understand that a league average hitter is below average for a LFer. That being said, Crisp's UZR/150 in LF is something like +20 -- he's a really good defender outside of what looks like one fluke year in Boston. Combine that with his baserunning and I imagine he's approaching something like an average-ish LFer. I'm not advocating giving him a three year deal, but if you can get him on a cheap-ish one year contract, that strikes me as a perfectly reasonable signing.
   116. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:09 PM (#3410456)
All things being equal, I'd much prefer the Sox acquire Coco Crisp to giving up useful assets for Brett Gardner.
   117. bhoov Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:16 PM (#3410464)
One plus for getting Gardner would be salary. Crisp is likely to get 2-3 million. Gardner's not even arb eligible is he? Maybe that 2-3 mill is the diff between getting Matsui and not.
   118. TM in Ann Arbor Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:17 PM (#3410465)
Doesn't strike me as an either/or. Short of trading for Bradley the best move would probably be to sign Crisp, trade for Gardner (assuming the price is reasonable) and go with a three-center fielder alignment with Quentin at DH and ready to step in at left when Crisp has an owie. Not glamorous, but Crisp and Gardner are both what guys like Wise and Podsednik are supposed to be, punchless wonders with enough speed and defense to be basically average outfielders at a cheap price.
   119. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:25 PM (#3410475)
Crisp is likely to get 2-3 million. Gardner's not even arb eligible is he? Maybe that 2-3 mill is the diff between getting Matsui and not.

And if the Sox send Bobby Jenks to New York for Gardner, that's another $5 million saved, at least. $7-8 million in 2010 might be enough to sign Matsui by itself.
   120. Walt Davis Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:26 PM (#3410476)
From Cot's ...

The Sox had a payroll of about $97 M last year. They're already up to about $80 M for 2010 and that's before arb awards for Jenks (2nd), Quentin (1st) and Danks (1st) plus another 7 roster spots presumably at or close to league minimum (which is still $3 M or so). It's hard to know what Quentin's gonna get but you'd think at least $3 M, Danks should pull down quite good money (career ERA+ of 114) and Jenks got $5.5 M last year. So the Sox basically are at 2009 payroll already. Kotsay, Vizquel and Teahen are only making about $6 M combined and you'd have to spend $1 M on two replacement level guys leaving just $5 M for a "major upgrade".

In short, the Sox haven't so much bungled this offseason as bungled some previous ones. Maybe because they were running closer to $110 a couple years ago and may have justifiably assumed they'd be operating around $120-130 by now only to see the economy tank.

As to who do the Sox have that the Yanks would want: Jenks seems an obvious candidate -- pricier than the Sox want to pay for sure and, if the Yanks are moving Hughes into the rotation, the Yanks need an 8th inning guy. The Sox might actually have to send some money along with that given what Jenks is likely to get in arb. Konerko is also in the last year of his contract and while I've never thought that much of him, the Yanks do have a DH opening at the moment. But this would hurt the Sox offense (but free up as much as $12 M although, again, I suspect the Sox would have to send some money along). An interesting but unlikely possibility is Pierzynski ($6.25 M) prompting a move of Posada to DH for 80+ games. Most likely would be a minor-league arm or two -- Gardner's not going to draw a big return on the trade market and, if they sign an LF, one of Melky/Gardner is kinda redundant.
   121. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:28 PM (#3410478)
One plus for getting Gardner would be salary. Crisp is likely to get 2-3 million. Gardner's not even arb eligible is he? Maybe that 2-3 mill is the diff between getting Matsui and not.

The trade-off, of course, is that you have to give something up for Gardner. I tend to side with snapper in that the Yankees are going to want something reasonably decent for Gardner.

On this same note, if the Sox like Gardner so much, why the hell did they not just try and get him last winter for Swisher? That would have been a much more reasonable deal (although still a win for the Yankees) than the pile of turd the Sox got.

Edited to add: I'm also on board with either Jenks for Gardner or Jenks for Bradley (provided the Cubs send some cash for the second year of the deal). The former frees up cash and gives the Sox a good LF option (with a decent backup plan in Jones); the latter plugs a more urgent hole (DH).
   122. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:31 PM (#3410481)
I would be against it, but I could see Ken Williams sending Bobby Jenks to New York for Gardner+ filler.


I doubt the Yankees would do that. I'm certain they could have had Rafael Soriano, a much better pitcher, for Brett Gardner if they wanted. Everyone on the White Sox I'd accept for Gardner is way too good for the White Sox to consider doing the deal.
   123. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:38 PM (#3410489)
I'm also on board with either Jenks for Gardner or Jenks for Bradley (provided the Cubs send some cash for the second year of the deal). The former frees up cash and gives the Sox a good LF option (with a decent backup plan in Jones); the latter plugs a more urgent hole (DH).

I actually have a hard time seeing the White Sox trading for Milton Bradley. If Ozzie Guillen couldn't stand having Nick Swisher around, there's no way in hell he's putting up with Bradley.
   124. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:39 PM (#3410490)
Everyone on the White Sox I'd accept for Gardner is way too good for the White Sox to consider doing the deal.

This seems to be a recurring theme. Perhaps Gardner is worth more to the Yankees than he is in trade.
   125. Liver of blaspheming 'zop Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:47 PM (#3410496)
Gardner's not going to draw a big return on the trade market and, if they sign an LF, one of Melky/Gardner is kinda redundant.

I don't see it. I think Gardner still has options, so he's redundant but who gives a ####, they can still stash him in AAA if they need the roster space. Melky is out of options but he can play all 3 OF positions and switch-hit, albeit ineffectively. You keep Melky as your 4th OF, send Gardner back down, "glut" solved.
   126. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:48 PM (#3410498)
If Ozzie Guillen couldn't stand having Nick Swisher around, there's no way in hell he's putting up with Bradley.

I dunno -- I think too much is made of that. How much more off-the-wall is Bradley than, say, Carl Everett?

I also tend to think that Swisher pissing off the mainstays like Konerko, AJ and maybe Dye (that is complete conjecture on my part, though) is more of the reason why he was shuttled out of town.
   127. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:57 PM (#3410503)
How much more off-the-wall is Bradley than, say, Carl Everett?

Supposedly the Cubs clubhouse broke out in spontaneous applause when Piniella announced that Bradley had been suspended for the last games of the season. It's an open secret that they hated his guts.

And it's not like Bradley's time on the North Side was an anomaly. Carl Everett had trouble in one place - Boston. Aside from a single year in Arlington, Bradley's been a problem everywhere he's been. Meanwhile, the White Sox under Guillen have always booted guys they don't like. There's a really good chance that, wherever Bradley ends up, it will be a total bust, and whatever talent or money the team gives up for him will be wasted.

I'd only take Bradley if the Cubs covered 90% of his salary and took Scott Linebrink in return.
   128. Davo the Magnificent Posted: December 11, 2009 at 10:59 PM (#3410506)
The Twins added Hardy to an otherwise lousy defense.
This was just a throw-away line in an already derailed thread, but I just had to add that the Twins defense looks to be horrendous next season. They added Hardy, but in doing so they traded Gomez.

Young-Span-Cuddyer left to right. This will not be pretty.
   129. Jimmy P Posted: December 11, 2009 at 11:05 PM (#3410511)
I'd only take Bradley if the Cubs covered 90% of his salary and took Scott Linebrink in return.

I wouldn't touch Bradley. The guy is toxic.

Young-Span-Cuddyer left to right. This will not be pretty.

Is Young going to be on that team next year?
   130. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: December 11, 2009 at 11:06 PM (#3410512)
Supposedly the Cubs clubhouse broke out in spontaneous applause when Piniella announced that Bradley had been suspended for the last games of the season. It's an open secret that they hated his guts.

And it's not like Bradley's time on the North Side was an anomaly. Carl Everett had trouble in one place - Boston. Aside from a single year in Arlington, Bradley's been a problem everywhere he's been. Meanwhile, the White Sox under Guillen have always booted guys they don't like. There's a really good chance that, wherever Bradley ends up, it will be a total bust, and whatever talent or money the team gives up for him will be wasted.

I'd only take Bradley if the Cubs covered 90% of his salary and took Scott Linebrink in return.


You could definitely be right. At the very least, though, a potential Guillen-Bradley blow-up might be Martin-Jackson-level epic, right?
   131. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: December 11, 2009 at 11:15 PM (#3410515)
At the very least, though, a potential Guillen-Bradley blow-up might be Martin-Jackson-level epic, right?

Like I said, it would be entertaining. I don't think it would help the White Sox win baseball games, though.

But at, say, $1 million/year for two years, Bradley is dumpable. The Sox could just cut him loose at the first sign of trouble and be glad that they got rid of Linebrink's contract.

I'm starting to think that Bradley will be a Cub come Opening Day, though, or at least he'll be sitting at home nursing an "injury" while the Cubs pay his salary. They seem to think that they should get either talent or salary relief or both for Bradley, and I'd be shocked if either thing happened.

If the White Sox send away a useful player, or take on any amount of salary, to get Bradley, I'll be really angry.
   132. Gern Blanston Posted: December 12, 2009 at 12:15 AM (#3410547)
At the very least, Milton Bradley and Ozzie Guillen sharing a clubhouse would provide lots and lots of entertainment.

And a lot of downtime together in the dugout, since I'm assuming Milton DHs.
   133. Yankee Redneck is a Pinhead. Posted: December 12, 2009 at 01:25 AM (#3410583)
Here's an idea, gun for 90 wins, and don't give any of the other teams a chance.

Well, barring adding another $20-$30 million onto the payroll, or going back in time and drafting better (and I think both of these are equally likely propositions), I don't see how.


It starts with Brett Gardner.
   134. Walt Davis Posted: December 12, 2009 at 02:20 AM (#3410602)
I think I've figured out how to put the White Sox "dilemma" in fantasy terms.

The Sox will have a payroll of about $100 M, maybe a little less. They currently have 15 players under contract for a total of $79 M, one of those is Viciedo who presumably won't play ML in 2010. Of that $79 M, $40 M is for pitchers (4 starters, 2 relievers). Oh yeah, they just added Putz for $3 M.

They also have some arb-eligible players, notably Jenks (2nd year) and Danks. Jenks made $6 M last year so he's got to be in line for $7-8 this year; Danks has a 114 career ERA+, very good numbers the last two years and I've got to think he's getting around $5. Although they probably should have bought out Danks last year, they can still do it to save some money now but probably not a lot. Anyway, this probably brings them to a pitcher payroll of $55 M and they still have 3 spots to fill. DJ Carrasco is another arb-eligible guy it seems they would want to keep (though he's pretty old) and he had a nice year last year, let's call that $1 M plus roughly $1 M for the final 2 bullpen slots.

So the Sox will have about a $100 M budget and will be spending about 57% of it on pitching. Every auction fantasy player knows that's crazy. :-) That's as strong a commitment as you can make to a pitching-first philosophy and it doesn't leave the Sox with enough money to build a good offense, especially snce they're spending 30% of their offensive payroll on Konerko and another 25% on Rios. Add Pierzynski, Teahen, Quentin's arb award, Viciedo, Vizquel and Kotsay and the Sox seem to have about $3 M to fill out the last 5 spots on the roster. And, as it stands, Andruw Jones is either the DH or the RF.

Either they're increasing payroll or Jenks and/or Pierzynski are being traded.
   135. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: December 12, 2009 at 06:49 AM (#3410678)
By the way, they apparently are going to non-tender Carrasco.
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