Crashburn Alley: Baer: The Truth About J.A. Happ

No more Happ-go-lucky?

Many are simply attributing Happ’s struggles to his injury, but that is simply not the case. Happ’s walk rate of 4.9 per nine innings is high, but not substantially higher than his Minor League average of 3.6. He has also allowed a bunch of hits, but as we know, that is not something pitchers have a whole lot of control over. When his rehab stats are put side-by-side with his 2009 Major League stats, you are left scrambling for some sort of explanation. The easiest conclusion is that Happ must be struggling because he’s still injured.

Todd Zolecki has this quote from GM Ruben Amaro:

  “He’s not quite the same pitcher as he was last year yet, but he’s getting close.”

He will never be the same pitcher he was last year. He is not a maven of control, he is not able to miss bats on a frequent basis, and he has no special batted ball abilities. He is simply mundane. Happ pitches like a 4.50 ERA pitcher and that is what should be expected. His 2009 was a complete and utter fluke.

When Happ returns, he will likely usurp the role of Kyle Kendrick. As they say, “six in one hand, half a dozen in the other.” If the Phillies want to bolster the starting rotation, waiting for Happ is not the solution.