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Monday, September 22, 2008

Cybermetrics: Morong: Was Devon White A Good Leadoff Man As A Blue Jay?

Doody Now for the Past?

Last Sunday one of the announcers on the TBS game said that Devon White became a good leadoff hitter when he came to the Blue Jays (I think it was Buck Martinez). Let’s see if he was a good leadoff man during his Toronto years, 1991-5.

...In other words, how many times a player gets into scoring position per out. Since triples are worth about 25% more than 2B’s according to run expectancy tables, I multiply them by 1.25. By dividing by outs, the ability to get on base is taken into account since if you make an out you don’t reach base. Also, outs include caught stealing. By subtracting HRs I am saying that guys that hit alot of HRs, even though they may have other good leadoff traits, are “penalized” here, since they might be better suited to batting lower in the order.

Anyway, White ranked 11th among all AL players 1991-5 with 2000+ PAs. Considering that there are 14 teams and each one has a leadoff man, 11th is not that great a rank.

Repoz Posted: September 22, 2008 at 11:19 AM | 10 comment(s) | Login to Bookmark
Related News: General, Sabermetrics, Toronto

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1. John M. Perkins Posted: September 22, 2008 at 01:07 PM (#2949857)

But as a top 14, then 11th is good enough to be a leadoff hitter, therefore a "good" leadoff hitter. Martinez said "good" not "great."

Not so good, Morong.

2. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 22, 2008 at 01:17 PM (#2949869)

Anyway, White ranked 11th among all AL players 1991-5 with 2000+ PAs. Considering that there are 14 teams and each one has a leadoff man, 11th is not that great a rank.

Morong continues to be unable to see the forest for the trees.

Anyway, White's marginal run value as a leadoff man was 1.290 while for the average leadoff man it was 1.292. So he was below average. Not by alot, but that is not good.

I don't trust the validity or accuracy of your made up stat to assume that being .002 "below average" is of significance.

3. Greg Pope Posted: September 22, 2008 at 01:23 PM (#2949874)

The stat seems kind of thrown-together and I'm not sure that it captures "how many times a player gets into scoring position per out", or whether that's even valid.

But the conclusion isn't really proper without identifying who the 10 players ahead of White are. In fact, in the article that Morong links to, the top 11 players from 2007 contain several players who were not leadoff men

4. Quiet Flows the Don Taussig Avenger (Edmundo)

Posted: September 22, 2008 at 01:24 PM (#2949875)

But as a top 14, then 11th is good enough to be a leadoff hitter, therefore a "good" leadoff hitter. Martinez said "good" not "great."

I don't trust the validity or accuracy of your made up stat to assume that being .002 "below average" is of significance.

So are you both saying this article is Morong than right?

5. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: September 22, 2008 at 01:49 PM (#2949899)

Morong continues to be unable to see the forest for the trees.

Morongoloid, he was Morongoloid
And it determined what he could see

6. AROM Posted: September 22, 2008 at 01:57 PM (#2949903)

Of the 10 players ranking ahead of him, how many were leadoff men? I'm sure Barry Bonds beats Rickey Henderson in a measure like this, that does not mean Rickey wasn't the greatest leadoff man of all time.

7. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: September 22, 2008 at 01:59 PM (#2949906)

The stat seems kind of thrown-together and I'm not sure that it captures "how many times a player gets into scoring position per out", or whether that's even valid.

Is this a stat that he uses often or has in the past? Or is it something he put together to "prove" his premise that White was not a good leadoff hitter. Looks like the latter to me.

I think Frank Howard should be in the Hall of Fame. Give me a day or two and I'll cobble together some stats to prove that.

8. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: September 22, 2008 at 02:03 PM (#2949910)

Of the 10 players ranking ahead of him, how many were leadoff men? I'm sure Barry Bonds beats Rickey Henderson in a measure like this, that does not mean Rickey wasn't the greatest leadoff man of all time.

In one of his books, probably the NBJHBA, he put together a stat to look for the greatest leadoff hitters. It turned out that the qualities he was looking for were more prevelant in sluggers like Ruth and Williams and Bonds and Cobb, so he mentioned them then threw them out of the mix and looked at only leadoff hitters. One would hope Morong did that here, but it doesn't look like it.

9. The District Attorney Posted: September 22, 2008 at 02:17 PM (#2949920)

More than a little harsh, guys. Is it really that crazy to assert that Devon White wasn't a particularly good leadoff man? I don't think you need to "make up a stat" to show that.

Now, whether his level of performance was "not excellent", "not good", "bad", or what is a totally semantic question, so, have fun with that.

10. AROM Posted: September 22, 2008 at 11:28 PM (#2950561)

I tried to reproduce the stat, looking AL leadoff hitters, 1991-1995:

doubles +1.25 triples + sb / outs

White ranked 8th, and since he's not looking at homers, we don't have to worry about Frank Thomas or Jose Canseco sneaking in:

1. Lofton
2. Rickey
3. Alomar
4. Brady A
5. Knoblauch
6. Polonia
7. Lance Johnson
8. White
9. Chad Curtis
10. Molitor
11. Raines
12. Shane Mack
13. D Hamilton

All leadoff or top of the order hitters (including 2 of White's teammates). No wonder Joe Carter got so many RBI. White looks average to me as a leadoff hitter.

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Monday, September 22, 2008

Cybermetrics: Morong: Was Devon White A Good Leadoff Man As A Blue Jay?

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